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1ShiningMoment

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 285

Posted: Nov. 17, 2010 - 11:45 AM ET #76

Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

still waiting on lines for Missouri State and Bradley.

Bradley opens at -7 ...

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Nov. 17, 2010 - 11:52 AM ET #77

Quote Originally Posted by 1ShiningMoment:

Bradley opens at -7 ...

And Missouri State +6.5. Disgusting. Final Card is up. Laying off these two.

GL

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Nov. 17, 2010 - 11:54 AM ET #78

Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:

Nropp11,

the most impressive thing you do , besides the great write-ups and analysis, is limiting your plays!!!

Their are other good cappers on this site but their personal style is to play many games, add plays etc...

As most here know, it is hard to avoid the ACTION temptation and I
think folks here need to really appreciate your discipline.

probably be days where i have 14 games unfortunately when conference season rolls around.

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shenanigans14

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2607

Posted: Nov. 17, 2010 - 12:09 PM ET #79

Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

that ISU/Drake Under is lined 134.5 by the way.

GL

I see that line is on the rise.... 136 at my book

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Nov. 17, 2010 - 12:45 PM ET #80

Quote Originally Posted by shenanigans14:

I see that line is on the rise.... 136 at my book

Up to 137.5 now. Guessing it was one of RAS released games. Some handicappers can release plays and the line is going to swing. He took Ole Miss, Loyola Marymount, and Marist, and all moved within a point and a half or two points within minutes of his release. Happens every day, usually swing back to the norm closer to gametime.

RAS pretty good at totals for a few years now, not saying he took the over, but a total swing of 3 points is a pretty good indicator.

Is what it is. Not too worried. Marathon, notta sprint.

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shenanigans14

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2607

Posted: Nov. 17, 2010 - 12:49 PM ET #81

Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

Up to 137.5 now. Guessing it was one of RAS released games. Some handicappers can release plays and the line is going to swing. He took Ole Miss, Loyola Marymount, and Marist, and all moved within a point and a half or two points within minutes of his release. Happens every day, usually swing back to the norm closer to gametime.

RAS pretty good at totals for a few years now, not saying he took the over, but a total swing of 3 points is a pretty good indicator.

Is what it is. Not too worried. Marathon, notta sprint.

completely agree. good luck man

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bwlcoolidge

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 83

Posted: Nov. 17, 2010 - 4:39 PM ET #82

who is ras

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bwlcoolidge

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 83

Posted: Nov. 17, 2010 - 5:14 PM ET #83

nropp, what about the under on murray state. one forty one seems a little high. excuse my format here, im typing from mdroid and cant use and numbers,caps, or symbols

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bwlcoolidge

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 83

Posted: Nov. 17, 2010 - 5:18 PM ET #84

im looking at the niagara under as well, considering the loss of players on both teams as your writeup states

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GWarner27

Hall of Fame

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 20963

Posted: Nov. 17, 2010 - 5:24 PM ET #85

Quote Originally Posted by bwlcoolidge:

who is ras

a respected tout service that specializes in totals

good luck today buddy

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beaverfan23

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 1545

Posted: Nov. 17, 2010 - 9:19 PM ET #86

Gracias.....Ball State -5 !!!!!

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 11:02 AM ET #87

11/17 Results: Indiana State lost their third straight roady and third game in 5 days. Fatigue showed in the second half. Iowa State has now held opponents under 23 points in five halves out of six total halves played this year! Interested in following Niagara’s pace, and same for Wisconsin MKE as they totaled 163 there. Manhattan’s size must have been a bit too much for Penn as I mentioned. Manhattan is not all that bad of a squad despite high turnover, they had an outstanding recruiting class come in. I should have played Missouri State as anticipated. UAB was a bit much for MTSTU. I think Murray State was expecting big things, but they’ll be a much better team come year’s end. Bradley snuck another close one in. Marquette was too strong for WGB. And Rider beat USC by 20.

Sides: 7-2, +5.80

Totals: 1-1, -0.10

DNP: 4-2

11/18 Notes: Fourth year of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off Classic begins today. Travel & Odd start times are just two of the factors affecting these teams on the first day of the tournament. Going to the notebook for some statistical data:

2007

Morning, Houston/VCU, First Half = 66, Second Half =82, Total = 148 (OVER)

Morning, Marist/Miami, First Half = 60, Second Half = 86, Total = 146 (UNDER)

Night, Temple/Providence, First Half = 62, Second Half = 68, Total = 130 (UNDER)

Night, Arkansas/COC, First Half = 58, Second Half = 66, Total = 124 (UNDER)

Three unders cashed.

2008

Morning, VTech/Fairfield, First Half = 71, Second Half = 60, Total = 131 (OVER)

Morning, Xavier/Missouri, First Half = 67, Second Half = 79, Total = 146 (UNDER)

Night, Memphis/UTChatt, First Half = 82, Second Half = 72, Total = 154 (UNDER)

Night, Seton Hall/USC, First Half = 71, Second Half = 53, Total = 124 (UNDER)

Again, three out of the first day’s four games went to the under.

2009

Morning, Dayton/Ga. Tech, First Half = 53, Second Half = 69, Total = 122 (UNDER)

Morning, Nova/GM, First Half = 65, Second Half = 72, Total = 137 (UNDER)

Night, Indiana/Ole Miss, First Half = 81, Second Half = 79, Total = 160 (OVER)

Night, KState/Boston, First Half = 74, Second Half = 76, Total = 150 (NO LINE)

Again, Majority to the Under.

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 11:03 AM ET #88

In the history of the tournament, only three games have pointed to the over. Only two games worth looking at for me is Nebraska/Vanderbilt and Western Kentucky/Minnesota. In the Noon game, both Nebraska and Vanderbilt are going to be playing opponents somewhat equal in caliber to each other. With the above statistics mentioned, I’d say a line at 134.5 in a Nebraska game against an opponent that has little outside shooting is probably about right and for that fact, I will lean to the under. Stallings like’s getting the ball into the post as he has in the past, and he will RELY on it this year. As for the WKU/Minnesota game, I just wish the whole Joseph thing would get figured out b/c Minnesota would be a force with him in the lineup. The team has gone through so much turmoil lately and trouble off the court that it’s getting ridiculous. But in saying that, it probably gives us a few points of value on the line here. WKU lost Slaughter, who obviously was a stud, and their top scorers have been coming in the paint, rather than from the perimeter which is how the team was viewed the last few years. Both teams will obviously have motivation to play #8 North Carolina in the second game of the tournament, but I’m going to give Minnesota the slight edge in both talent and motivation. Minnesota’s strength is defending the post and kicking in and out on offense. WKU’s strength is going into the post this year, where I give the defensive edge to Minnesota. Minnesota has a deadly starting five when Hoffarber runs the point for matchup purposes. Yes, Minnesota struggled against Siena, but I’m going to mark that down as looking forward to getting down to Puerto Rico and showing the nation what they can do. They also didn’t start Iverson or Williams that game either due to suspensions. You have a team here with TONS of experience, players who want to earn their starting spots, and a good 8 or 9 players competing for minutes. You should get the best out of this team, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win the Tip-Off Classic if these guys can just show up, and shut-up. This name sound familiar? Alex Legion? Transferred from Illinois to Florida International. You have to feel good if you’re the man that he gets to guard in tonight’s game at Florida State. I am very interested in the total on the Arizona/NMSTU game. NMSTU has scored nowhere near their averages against big-name competition and now they get the pack-line defense of Miller and Arizona. Scored 68 at UCLA last year I believe, and a 60 to USC the year before. Hitting 95 and 92 as they did the first two games is probably out of the question. But their defense isn’t anything special, so maybe Arizona can get into the 80s or 90s, which makes the 146.5 probably spot on. Still lean under though. Pack-line slows the pace of game, dramatically...

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In the history of the tournament, only three games have pointed to the over. Only two games worth looking at for me is Nebraska/Vanderbilt and Western Kentucky/Minnesota. In the Noon game, both Nebraska and Vanderbilt are going to be playing opponents somewhat equal in caliber to each other. With the above statistics mentioned, I’d say a line at 134.5 in a Nebraska game against an opponent that has little outside shooting is probably about right and for that fact, I will lean to the under. Stallings like’s getting the ball into the post as he has in the past, and he will RELY on it this year. As for the WKU/Minnesota game, I just wish the whole Joseph thing would get figured out b/c Minnesota would be a force with him in the lineup. The team has gone through so much turmoil lately and trouble off the court that it’s getting ridiculous. But in saying that, it probably gives us a few points of value on the line here. WKU lost Slaughter, who obviously was a stud, and their top scorers have been coming in the paint, rather than from the perimeter which is how the team was viewed the last few years. Both teams will obviously have motivation to play #8 North Carolina in the second game of the tournament, but I’m going to give Minnesota the slight edge in both talent and motivation. Minnesota’s strength is defending the post and kicking in and out on offense. WKU’s strength is going into the post this year, where I give the defensive edge to Minnesota. Minnesota has a deadly starting five when Hoffarber runs the point for matchup purposes. Yes, Minnesota struggled against Siena, but I’m going to mark that down as looking forward to getting down to Puerto Rico and showing the nation what they can do. They also didn’t start Iverson or Williams that game either due to suspensions. You have a team here with TONS of experience, players who want to earn their starting spots, and a good 8 or 9 players competing for minutes. You should get the best out of this team, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win the Tip-Off Classic if these guys can just show up, and shut-up. This name sound familiar? Alex Legion? Transferred from Illinois to Florida International. You have to feel good if you’re the man that he gets to guard in tonight’s game at Florida State. I am very interested in the total on the Arizona/NMSTU game. NMSTU has scored nowhere near their averages against big-name competition and now they get the pack-line defense of Miller and Arizona. Scored 68 at UCLA last year I believe, and a 60 to USC the year before. Hitting 95 and 92 as they did the first two games is probably out of the question. But their defense isn’t anything special, so maybe Arizona can get into the 80s or 90s, which makes the 146.5 probably spot on. Still lean under though. Pack-line slows the pace of game, dramatically...

nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 11:03 AM ET #89

Colorado State has more talent than Denver and return a plethora of talent as well. One thing is for sure in Denver under coach Joe Scott, they are going to run the Princeton offense, they will lead the nation in FG%, they will be last in offensive rebounding, and they will lead the nation in fouls. System is 90% offense, 10% defense. Games will be played in the 50’s more than likely and nothing this year has worked so far in pointing to an 0-3 start, all road losses. Colorado State is definitely not what I would call a world-beater on the road but they are familiar with the Princeton offense playing the likes of Air Force twice a year, and Denver once a year. This is a team that returns a ton of scoring and senior leadership, along with much depth at the guard positions, which is what you will need facing the Princeton style of offense which wears you down not only physically but mentally. Last Year, they beat the bad teams consistently. 9 of their 16 losses came to the likes of BYU, New Mexico, SDSTU, and UNLV. This is a team that closed the season last year with a 1 point loss to SDSTU in the conference tournament, and then reached a postseason tournament for the first time since 2003. THIS TEAM IS HUNGRY. Tough spot for Wofford as they play a cross-town rival in USC Upstate who was a late entry into the tournament. Have to believe the kids from USC Upstate are excited to play in a somewhat big name tournament, and then to play against kids you are very familiar with. Still a tough spot for Wofford as well having played Clemson and Minnesota, both of which were winnable games, now have to play a nobody with a chance to play Georgetown in the next round. Sandwich City. Someone please tell me why College of Charleston doesn’t play in the Charleston Classic? East Carolina moves into one of those teams who is going to shoot a TON of three’s this year with Lebo at the helm. Interested in following the George Mason/Charlotte game. Both squads should be well improved this year. Really shocked Illinois is favored in the Garden, but I guess it’s based off of returning starters rather than prospects of what Texas inherits. Interested in seeing how Illinois fares in the Garden as well, as they haven’t played well in big games in recent years outside of Assembly Hall. If I partook in the game as far as a value standpoint, I do not know much about Texas and the incomings but I’d probably say they have the value. I expected them to open as a fav. The game comes down to bench players, and right now, Illinois bench is just as young as the Texas studs. Should be a good game. Not a single player is as important to their squad as Kenneth Faried is to Morehead State, however they return very little else. While Faried controlled rebounding and scoring as well as getting to the foul line, Morehead State will be a slightly different team without Brandon Shingles, one of the best PG’s in the Ohio Valley last year. While UNC Wilmington was the worst offensive squad in the nation last year, things should be on the up and up with Buzz Peterson at the helm. He increased Appy State and Coastal Carolina’s offense immediately in his first year with young talent, and this year should be no different, perhaps even better with some returning experience. I would lean to the over here in this spot based solely on that fact alone until oddsmakers catch up to the fact that this team can score, and with a total in the 140’s, it’s apparent they may already be caught up. They only scored 60 at Florida which is obvious, but they put up 69 on a Liberty team who plays at a snail’s tempo. First line that immediately jumped out to me will be the last one I comment on for the day. Eastern Illinois catching double figures at in-state Loyola CHI. Loyola has jumped off to a fast start winning it’s own tournament in convincing fashion against what I would call three lessers than what Eastern Illinois brings to the table. Yes, Eastern has started 0-2 with losses at Ball State (which I commented on yesterday as a fantastic home squad in a great spot against Indiana State) and a loss to South Dakota State which can be summed up as they’re the same team that won a game at Iowa. Both teams are familiar with each other’s players as most were recruited to play at both schools. Eastern’s backcourt should be all-conference and have yet to play up to it’s standards which gives us a bit of value here. Loyola’s backcourt has shot 50% from the three-point line in it’s first three games, something I expect NOT to continue too much longer. Sometimes you just have to take a step back and take the team that’s only averaging 50 points a game instead of the team that’s averaging 80 points a game, right? Sometimes the 0-2 team is better than the 3-0 team right? Sometimes the team that has lost both games by double digits is going to come out on top rather than the team that has won all three games by double digits, right? Just for one game this year, I gotta stick to my gut. I think Eastern’s the better team, even though I can’t make any sense of it at the moment, but a straight up win is possible.

Bets

Colorado State +1.5 (2 Units)

Minnesota -5 (1 Unit)

Eastern Illinois +11 (1 Unit)

Nebraska/Vanderbilt Under 133.5 (1 Unit)

DNP: Morehead State/UNCW Over 140.5

GL

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Colorado State has more talent than Denver and return a plethora of talent as well. One thing is for sure in Denver under coach Joe Scott, they are going to run the Princeton offense, they will lead the nation in FG%, they will be last in offensive rebounding, and they will lead the nation in fouls. System is 90% offense, 10% defense. Games will be played in the 50’s more than likely and nothing this year has worked so far in pointing to an 0-3 start, all road losses. Colorado State is definitely not what I would call a world-beater on the road but they are familiar with the Princeton offense playing the likes of Air Force twice a year, and Denver once a year. This is a team that returns a ton of scoring and senior leadership, along with much depth at the guard positions, which is what you will need facing the Princeton style of offense which wears you down not only physically but mentally. Last Year, they beat the bad teams consistently. 9 of their 16 losses came to the likes of BYU, New Mexico, SDSTU, and UNLV. This is a team that closed the season last year with a 1 point loss to SDSTU in the conference tournament, and then reached a postseason tournament for the first time since 2003. THIS TEAM IS HUNGRY. Tough spot for Wofford as they play a cross-town rival in USC Upstate who was a late entry into the tournament. Have to believe the kids from USC Upstate are excited to play in a somewhat big name tournament, and then to play against kids you are very familiar with. Still a tough spot for Wofford as well having played Clemson and Minnesota, both of which were winnable games, now have to play a nobody with a chance to play Georgetown in the next round. Sandwich City. Someone please tell me why College of Charleston doesn’t play in the Charleston Classic? East Carolina moves into one of those teams who is going to shoot a TON of three’s this year with Lebo at the helm. Interested in following the George Mason/Charlotte game. Both squads should be well improved this year. Really shocked Illinois is favored in the Garden, but I guess it’s based off of returning starters rather than prospects of what Texas inherits. Interested in seeing how Illinois fares in the Garden as well, as they haven’t played well in big games in recent years outside of Assembly Hall. If I partook in the game as far as a value standpoint, I do not know much about Texas and the incomings but I’d probably say they have the value. I expected them to open as a fav. The game comes down to bench players, and right now, Illinois bench is just as young as the Texas studs. Should be a good game. Not a single player is as important to their squad as Kenneth Faried is to Morehead State, however they return very little else. While Faried controlled rebounding and scoring as well as getting to the foul line, Morehead State will be a slightly different team without Brandon Shingles, one of the best PG’s in the Ohio Valley last year. While UNC Wilmington was the worst offensive squad in the nation last year, things should be on the up and up with Buzz Peterson at the helm. He increased Appy State and Coastal Carolina’s offense immediately in his first year with young talent, and this year should be no different, perhaps even better with some returning experience. I would lean to the over here in this spot based solely on that fact alone until oddsmakers catch up to the fact that this team can score, and with a total in the 140’s, it’s apparent they may already be caught up. They only scored 60 at Florida which is obvious, but they put up 69 on a Liberty team who plays at a snail’s tempo. First line that immediately jumped out to me will be the last one I comment on for the day. Eastern Illinois catching double figures at in-state Loyola CHI. Loyola has jumped off to a fast start winning it’s own tournament in convincing fashion against what I would call three lessers than what Eastern Illinois brings to the table. Yes, Eastern has started 0-2 with losses at Ball State (which I commented on yesterday as a fantastic home squad in a great spot against Indiana State) and a loss to South Dakota State which can be summed up as they’re the same team that won a game at Iowa. Both teams are familiar with each other’s players as most were recruited to play at both schools. Eastern’s backcourt should be all-conference and have yet to play up to it’s standards which gives us a bit of value here. Loyola’s backcourt has shot 50% from the three-point line in it’s first three games, something I expect NOT to continue too much longer. Sometimes you just have to take a step back and take the team that’s only averaging 50 points a game instead of the team that’s averaging 80 points a game, right? Sometimes the 0-2 team is better than the 3-0 team right? Sometimes the team that has lost both games by double digits is going to come out on top rather than the team that has won all three games by double digits, right? Just for one game this year, I gotta stick to my gut. I think Eastern’s the better team, even though I can’t make any sense of it at the moment, but a straight up win is possible.

Bets

Colorado State +1.5 (2 Units)

Minnesota -5 (1 Unit)

Eastern Illinois +11 (1 Unit)

Nebraska/Vanderbilt Under 133.5 (1 Unit)

DNP: Morehead State/UNCW Over 140.5

GL

Rocketman17

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 475

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 11:13 AM ET #90

Thank you for your input and hard work. You are the most insightful capper on this site!

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JoeyPublic

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 1825

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 11:20 AM ET #91

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Jose_Reyes

Hall of Fame

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 20468

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 11:25 AM ET #92

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rogers12

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2002

Posts: 3822

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 11:30 AM ET #93

Good stuff nropp. i would be interested in any years past madison square stats. seems to me a very high percentage of dogs win. thinking of taking texas and ml. gl and keep it rolling.

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BandosWB

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 2909

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 1:09 PM ET #94

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trajan21

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 79

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 1:25 PM ET #95

Good luck on the Huskers under Nropp. Doc really wants to push it up more this season but also playing more bigs???
Not as good as defenders as in years past and better scorers. Ill be real interested to see the style the team shows against a good team. Also a lot of talk about playing more zone this season.

Great start to season...only log on this site for your write ups!

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Demetreous

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 421

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 1:34 PM ET #96

In Nropp11 I trust,

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1ShiningMoment

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 285

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 1:48 PM ET #97

GL Nropp

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paldog

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 110

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 4:00 PM ET #98

nropp your great on past stats.Would you know if this is accurate away favorites in cbb hit a little over 55%.I seen this stat on covers trends at the end of the season. thanks

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miniman44444

Rookie

Joined: Jun, 2010

Posts: 900

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 4:03 PM ET #99

like the colorado st pick bol tonight

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GWarner27

Hall of Fame

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 20963

Posted: Nov. 18, 2010 - 4:35 PM ET #100

lean with ya on Minnesota, BOL

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