11/18 Results: Short on time, couple wins and a push.
Sides: 9-2, +8.80
Totals: 2-1, +0.90
DNP: 4-3
11/19 Notes: Should be a tough letdown spot for North Texas going on the road at Kansas after the big win at home the other night. After their big home win in 2007, they went on the road to Texas Arlington and lost outright by 8. They could be back to reality tonight. Last year, I probably take a long hard look at Missouri State and Tulsa going under the total, and I glanced at it for a bit, both both offenses are somewhat faster paced this year, and while I still like the under here, I need to see a bit more of both teams. Had Missouri State gotten blown out by Tennessee, then obviously would have had more value on Missouri State in this spot. Just not worth the value laying a favorite on the second game of a roady in which the first opponent was a bigtime name and a loss. Cleveland State visits Lafayette, who I have mentioned before a few times losing the services of Johnson and Gradnigo and have yet to rebound from both those losses. Cleveland State is out to a 4-0 start and their defense should give Lafayette some trouble. Cleveland State returns everyone, but a rivalry game with Akron is on deck next. Like the matchups, but hard for me to back a road favorite in it’s first road game with a rivalry on deck. Boise State teams of the past have been built on guards, but not this team. The backcourt is a big question mark and while they have a few bigs returning, this team is going to be a different makeup than in past years. With that said, San Diego really has no guards to mention of either after losing all-time leading scorer Brandon Johnson. Why Kentucky schedules a cross country trip to Portland with Oklahoma on tap back home Monday is beyond me. I have no interest in the Paradise Jam. Neither Portland State or SMU return much to mention, but I expect Portland State’s defense to be quite a bit better this year. Yes, they gave up 81 to a Pepperdine squad, but that’s the pace Pepperdine plays at. Portland State’s biggest problem last year was having the offensive players who couldn’t defend, and both of those guards are now gone. SMU is no offensive juggernaut and a midday start time adds some value to this total along with the slight travel of Portland State. How is the Rhode Island/COC game not lined in the 160’s??????? 152.5 seems awfully low for teams that are going to run and chuck at every opportunity. I’m not even making it a lean b/c of the start time. I will however, make a play on Rhode Island. While I have professed my love for the SOCON thus far, I just don’t think COC can score with a team like Rhode Island and turnovers will play a part in extra possessions for Rhode Island as well. Rhode Island, at times, features a duo-PG in the backcourt which should be the difference in this up and down fast paced hectic style of play type of game. COC will also press, which I fully expect Rhode Island to get even easier buckets than they normally do. Rhode Island thrives in the tournament setting, and this should be no different. Two PG’s against the press is the key here. On the other half of this regional, we have the matchup of suck and suck, UIC and Toledo. 138 seemed awfully high considering combined these teams have scored 49, 45, and 54, but those were against Pitt, Illinois, and Temple, three tough defenses. Still, the last three times these teams played the last three years they have seen 118, 120, and 122. Oddsmakers must believe both squads extremely lack defense which is going to lead to more offense, cuz that 138 makes no sense (opened 138, after typing, down to 132). No interest in backing Illinois or even looking at the game until the role players figure out their duties. Team has immense talent, and the loss with foul trouble got the young-ins much needed experience and will help down the road. Not really interested in looking at either of those games with the marathon up and down late last night either. Interested in seeing how Pitt defends Texas and see if they can slow them down. Pitt’s defense should frustrate a young Texas team, and Texas hasn’t seen a defense like it yet this year. Big key here with Pitt is whether they get into the up and down that Texas wants. It was Pitt’s primary problem last year. They would go up and down when they didn’t really need to, thus not focusing the game on the defensive end. Major value on Appalachian State tonight, but I don’t know enough about Mississippi State this early in the year to make a play. Appy State’s guards are averaging 46 points, Mississippi State’s are averaging 4. You’d have to believe guards play an important part of this get up and down matchup, but just going with the hunch and laying off. I will lean to the over of the total due to Mississippi State’s ability to score well at home and Appy will get their’s too. No interest in the Puerto Rico Tip-off today aside from watching Minnesota knock off North Carolina en route to the title which I predicted. The +5.5 isn’t enough value to back up my prediction in a game lined at 152. Two possessions isn’t enough for me there. A lot of weird matchups with games today, keep it simple.
Bets
Portland State/SMU Under 139 (1 Unit)
Rhode Island -4 (1 Unit)
DNP: Appy State/Miss State Over 143.5
GL
was working!!!!! no coattails today!!
Neo
....Appreciate all your work and insight.
your posts are the highlight of my college basketball season.
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