Posted:
#151
...Wisconsin MKE has gone over the 140 mark three times (@ Portland when Portland could not miss a 3, Florida Atlantic who has hit high 140’s every game aside from no-offense UC Davis, and Niagara who runs at will). Letdown spot for Wisconsin MKE, WMU has the experience at the guard slot to guard Boyle, and a stronger emphasis on interior play should keep this one under the number, and the letdown should provide a closer game than what WMU has previously been involved in the 1H at Loyola to a defensive ballgame in the 2H. Probably a pretty good spot to take a stab at WMU as well b/c MKE welcomes Marquette on Saturday. Light bulbs. Rice is 3-1 but their wins are laughable along with their offense. Another total I will delve into will be New Mexico State and UTEP. I alluded to New Mexico State scoring 61, 57, and 57 their last three games against the bigger names in USC, Umass, and Arizona. Now they get more to their level of competition in a UTEP team who likes to run as well. UTEP has only gone over this # once this year, but you can’t expect to score in the 140’s on WCU and Pacific. While UTEP has failed to get more than 50 shots off in two of it’s three games, they have gotten to the foul line enough to eliminate that. Plus, their offense is efficient. New Mexico State is gonna be ready to run. They won this game as a +15 dog here last year and it totaled 167 seeing halves of 80 and 87. This is only going to be a lean for a few reasons. One, NMSTU has been atrocious in the 1H of their last two ballgames, due in part to being on the road since November 17. They will return home after the game tonight. Two, this is a pretty big rivalry. I still like the #, 143 is too short. No thoughts on Illinois, especially with an IVY league school involved. MAUI lines are not up, interested in Oklahoma total and a Michigan State/Washington final (not from a betting perspective, I just want to see these two teams meet this early in the year, and I think there is a great chance we get it). Not a drop of interest in Harrisonburg or the Cancun Challenge. Nothing available on the CBE Title, but can’t see myself playing Marquette/Zaga or KSTATE/Duke. Winthrop beat Wake Forest last night. I’ve noted Winthrop about a million times this year being able to defend and defend at an unreal level, something that Belmont has not seen any of this year. Belmont has shot the ball extremely well from three-point line but that’s what Winthrop defends the best and have been for years. Both teams playing a back-to-back here, in a day setting, in a letdown b/c Winthrop never scores in the 80’s. Jaw drops at 142.5. Marist and Wake Forest, Suck and Suck. Will move away from the Washington DC regional after the win last night. Same goes for the Springfield, MO region. I don’t have much of a feel for Siena this year, but I thought Butler would be projected slightly higher than the -6 it’s currently at. I think Butler beat a better Siena team pretty easy in February, but until they prove to me they can win on the road without Hayward, not touching them. Would probably look at the Northern Colorado and Santa Clara game going over the total if you’re into the style of depending on the three-ball going into the bucket. Canisius and Buffalo in a rivalry game. Had an option to take Buffalo, but their free throw shooting is atrocious. They should still be able to get whatever they want in the paint. Canisius has been switching up defenses trying to confuse offenses to a greater majority this year and it’s been working, and Buffalo is young and it might continue to work, but having an interior presence sort of negates the switching defense to an extent. Memphis and UT Martin could hit 180 if Memphis chooses to play no defense. I’ve made many mentions of Appy State previously, so I won’t go into great depth on them. Tennessee Tech returns their best three, and their focus has never been on defense and it looks like it has continued. Both teams should be in the high 70’s to 80’s here. Now, onto the game I’ve had circled for what seems like an eternity. Revenge is the theme. As a nine point dog on the road last year at this exact same time, Sacramento State strolled into UC Davis and came away with a 2-point victory, despite UC Davis taking 20 more shots, despite UC Davis outrebounding them, despite UC Davis and Mark Payne missing three POINT-BLANK shots in the final 8 seconds. While those were contributing factors in the game, the one of primary importance was Joe Harden leaving with an ankle injury. I have alluded to both Payne and Harden previously in this thread to great detail. They’re both 6’7 or 6’8 guards who are currently at or near the top of all active leaders in the conference in many categories. They play well together as they have since high school. Most of their roster returns. This is a team that shot 33% in last year’s game. This is a team that shot 20% from the three point line in last year’s game. And they had multiple chances at the end of the game to win. But they were without their defensive leader, best rebounder, and ½ of their backcourt tandem. Sacramento State has never had a winning record since joining Division 1, they only return three players who played minutes last year, and their top returner is Sultan Toles-Bay who comes in as a 5-10 point guard. He’ll be guarded by Mark Payne, who once again, listed at 6’7” 6’8”ish. Yes UC Davis has 1 win, but they’ve played much tougher competition than Sacramento State who also has one win. They’ve been outrebounded in both of their losses this year and I expect that trend to continue tonight. Their opponents in those losses also shot less than 40% from the field. These aren’t world-beater type teams, but I expect UC Davis to come ahead as the better team. They actually held a lead on Boise State at halftime in their most recent game, only to falter in the 2H, and falter in a big way. And that falter, gives them more motivation to come into this game tonight, with revenge, with the best player on the court having the honor of redeeming himself of last year’s loss. You think Mark Payne remembers missing them easy shots last year? We’ll find out.
0
(forgot my ball...superstitious)
), but I've seen a few of the more respected cappers all on Sac State...have to admire such a large play totally against the grain. BOL to you tonight 
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