Western Kentucky +15 vs Marquette (-115)
4 Units
Stetson TEAM TOTAL UNDER 60 (-115) vs UConn
6 Units
Stetson is top 25 in Luck rating nationally, top 10 in Luck rating in last 10 games. Got to play the whole conference tournament at home, hitting 23 threes in their last 2 games at an absurdly unsustainable 56% clip. Significantly undersized at all 5 positions, it'll be an otherworldly challenge for getting all those shots up and offensive rebounds today. @bookie_crushers
Stetson TEAM TOTAL UNDER 60 (-115) vs UConn
6 Units
Stetson is top 25 in Luck rating nationally, top 10 in Luck rating in last 10 games. Got to play the whole conference tournament at home, hitting 23 threes in their last 2 games at an absurdly unsustainable 56% clip. Significantly undersized at all 5 positions, it'll be an otherworldly challenge for getting all those shots up and offensive rebounds today. @bookie_crushers
Dayton +10 vs Arizona (-115)
3 Units
Recency bias has stretched this out too far due to Dayton’s historic comeback and AZ getting to play ideal track meet opponent in 1st rnd. AZ went 2-8 ATS vs conf opponents in bottom/slower half of lg in pace and Dayton is even more half court-oriented than almost all those tms. @bookie_crushers
Dayton +10 vs Arizona (-115)
3 Units
Recency bias has stretched this out too far due to Dayton’s historic comeback and AZ getting to play ideal track meet opponent in 1st rnd. AZ went 2-8 ATS vs conf opponents in bottom/slower half of lg in pace and Dayton is even more half court-oriented than almost all those tms. @bookie_crushers
Seton Hall ML -185 vs North Texas
5.55 Units to win 3
UNT has been stunting run 'n gun tms, specifically ones unfamiliar with their style, for years, so LSU was an ideal opponent for Mean Green in 1st rnd. SH was visibly motivated vs St. Joe's and had a surprisingly legit crowd. Pirates are opposite style opponent from LSU, with similar defensive metrics as North Texas, significant size/rebounding edge and far more efficient offense. Back the home team to advance vs the defending champs. @bookie_crushers
Seton Hall ML -185 vs North Texas
5.55 Units to win 3
UNT has been stunting run 'n gun tms, specifically ones unfamiliar with their style, for years, so LSU was an ideal opponent for Mean Green in 1st rnd. SH was visibly motivated vs St. Joe's and had a surprisingly legit crowd. Pirates are opposite style opponent from LSU, with similar defensive metrics as North Texas, significant size/rebounding edge and far more efficient offense. Back the home team to advance vs the defending champs. @bookie_crushers
Gonzaga ML -170 vs Kansas
5.1 Units to win 3
Too many paths to victory for Gonzaga when evaluating off/def metrics in last 5 and last 10 games for each. The peaking Zags have a dwarfing depth advantage on the thin/regressing Jayhawks who played the late barnburner game on Thursday while Zags played the early blowout game. Zags also play very little zone and I imagine might play none today given the stark rest/depth advantage on Kansas, i.e. they'll make KU exert more energy than they would like to on offense. @bookie_crushers
Gonzaga ML -170 vs Kansas
5.1 Units to win 3
Too many paths to victory for Gonzaga when evaluating off/def metrics in last 5 and last 10 games for each. The peaking Zags have a dwarfing depth advantage on the thin/regressing Jayhawks who played the late barnburner game on Thursday while Zags played the early blowout game. Zags also play very little zone and I imagine might play none today given the stark rest/depth advantage on Kansas, i.e. they'll make KU exert more energy than they would like to on offense. @bookie_crushers
Michigan St +4 vs North Carolina (-110)
3 Units
Sparty just went wild with 3 point attempts, making 10 and UNC covered but was unimpressive defensively vs the worst and most tired offense in the tourney, giving up 8 made threes to Wagner at a 40% clip. Sparty's defensive efficiency rating is also off the charts in last 5 gms, having not allowed an opponent to score >67 points in that stretch, which included top 5 offense in Purdue who UNC ranks 14 spots lower than in offensive efficiency. Take the 2 possessions in a coin flip. @bookie_crushers
Michigan St +4 vs North Carolina (-110)
3 Units
Sparty just went wild with 3 point attempts, making 10 and UNC covered but was unimpressive defensively vs the worst and most tired offense in the tourney, giving up 8 made threes to Wagner at a 40% clip. Sparty's defensive efficiency rating is also off the charts in last 5 gms, having not allowed an opponent to score >67 points in that stretch, which included top 5 offense in Purdue who UNC ranks 14 spots lower than in offensive efficiency. Take the 2 possessions in a coin flip. @bookie_crushers
Wazzu vs Iowa St UNDER 128 (-105)
5 Units
Cougs won't be shooting 50% from three today (as they did last game) vs the best defense in the country. Cyclones won't be facing the 180th ranked defense in the country (as they did last game), instead they get a Wazzu team who is bottom/slowest 20% nationally in pace. Slugfest. @bookie_crushers
Wazzu vs Iowa St UNDER 128 (-105)
5 Units
Cougs won't be shooting 50% from three today (as they did last game) vs the best defense in the country. Cyclones won't be facing the 180th ranked defense in the country (as they did last game), instead they get a Wazzu team who is bottom/slowest 20% nationally in pace. Slugfest. @bookie_crushers
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