Long Beach St vs Arizona OVER 162 (-120)
4 Units
Love that Arizona is coming off 3 straight unders vs half court-leaning offenses and LBSU off an under themselves in conf ship vs the #1 team in lg in def efficiency. Both teams are top 25 in pace and rely on transition and offensive rebounds to offset defensive shortcomings. @bookie_crushers
North Carolina -24 vs Wagner (-120)
5 Units
Wagner's entire March has consisted of draining, back and forth games in the 2nd worst conference in the nation, requiring their major contributors to average nearly 40 minutes per game due to only having 7 players available through this improbable stretch. That includes Wagner's last gm vs Howard 40 hrs before tip of this vs UNC tm off ship loss to rival. UNC is higher ranked in nearly all major categories despite dwarfing SoS. Expect Wagner to concede many easy buckets to avoid foul trouble like they did at end of Howard gm too. @bookie_crushers
This a ton of points for an overachieving Illinois team vs a veteran team that has had more prep time and has the size & athleticism to match the Illini. Morehead St is in the top 5% nationally in 3 point attempts and Illinois is in the bottom 25% nationally in opponents' 3 pt %.
Nevada ML -115 vs Dayton
6 Units
My favorite play of day. Dayton has been fading despite a top 20 Luck in their last 10 gms. Nevada has most stat edges including dwarfing Flyers in def efficiency, coaching edge w/ Alford, more veteran tm, and has pseudo home game in altitude w/ their opponent traveling from EST. @bookie_crushers
Texas ML -140 vs Colorado St
5.6 Units to win 4
Back the talent disparity preszn top 20, Texas, holds that should gel here w/ over a week of prep & Disu 100% healthy. Lots of tourney experience on this team w/ Abmas, Shedrick and last year's Elite 8 run. Virginia's ineptitude has contributed to a cheap price on the fave here. @bookie_crushers
Oakland +14 vs Kentucky (-110)
4 Units
Grizzlies are in the top half of the nation in every major offensive category, along with having an NBA prospect in Townsend, which leads me to believe they can stay w/in this number against an historically bad defense w/ a chance to backdoor in some of the worser case scenarios. @bookie_crushers
McNeese +7 vs Gonzaga (-115)
4 Units
Zags solid 2 pt D is result of opponents in weaker than normal WCC, chucking up 3's at outlier rate this szn. McNeese is aggressive in paint, drawing tons of fouls. While they don't settle for 3, they still shoot nearly 40% behind arc & Zags' have bottom third 3 pt D nationally. @bookie_crushers
Iowa St -15 vs South Dakota St (-120)
4 Units
South Dakota St TEAM TOTAL UNDER 60.5 (-115)
2 Units
SDSU was unimpressive in conference tourney including failing to cover vs sub-.500 7th seed Denver in final. This gm has one of starkest SoS disparities on the docket and Cyclones beat and swept the 2 common opponents in KSU and UCF, while SDSU lost to both by an average of 13. @bookie_crushers
Tennessee -21 vs Saint Peter's (-110)
6 Units
Worst offense remaining in tourney, facing a top 3 defense in the nation off their most humiliating loss of szn. Vols shoot a ton of 3's and will have a very forgiving buffer for getting over this number as result of all those 3 point attempts and St. Pete's offensive ineptitude. @bookie_crushers
Washington St ML +2 vs Drake (-115)
4 Units
Drake shockingly allows almost 55% from 2 pt land and Cougs have tons of size to exploit that glaring weakness along w/ Drake having maybe the least depth in tourney after Wagner. There's some public darling inflation on the Bulldogs here as well. Back the far more balanced team. @bookie_crushers
Northwestern vs FAU UNDER 143 (-110)
4 Units
Wildcats don't have anything close to the depth of FAU so they will be enticed to slow this game down with a half court offense theme. Owls love transition but NW appears to have the kryptonite as top 5 transition defense nationally, allowing roughly 8 transition attempts per gm. @bookie_crushers
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