read the line system...spot a possible trap

MUST/TNST

The total for this game is common for both teams but Tennessee State is 8-1 ATS with totals 135 or higher this season, compared to 2-5 ATS with totals 130 or lower. The line has been adjusted for a couple of points because of the Murray domination over Tennesse State in recent years but it's stil far away from most recent lines in this series (anywhere from -12 to -22 in last 5 meetings). The line for this game should be -1 or -1.5 but that line would attract too much Murray State money and the linemakers are not stupid to do something like that.

Handicapping:

Tennessee State won last 8 home conference games (7-1 ATS) and last 6 home games overall this season (4-1 ATS) and their only home loss this season came against a very good Belmont team (20-4). They will be looking for revenge against Murray State as they swept them last two seasons, eliminated them from the OVC tournament last 2 seasons and already beat them once this season. Murray State hasn't been impressive at all on the road this season with single digit wins at SIU-Edwardsville, Tennessee Tech, Jacksonville State, Chatanooga, Eastern Kentucky and double digit losses against Morehead State and Mississippi.  Murray State is one of those teams that cruise early on but slow down in February. They are 9-15-1 ATS in last 25 February games and Tennessee State is 15-4-1 ATS in last 20 February games. Murray State has a HUGE revenge game at OVC leading Austin Peay in two days. They are in danger of overlooking a very dangerous Tn.St. team that plays very well at home.

I'm taking Tennessee State +4 in what I believe to be a trap game for Murray who plays one of their biggest OVC rivals two days from today.

 Covers most under-rated SuperCapper on this forum! Nice work brotha! Continued success, and please tell me when you get tired of carrying my ass to the cashiers window with all of these winning picks! I'm to the point of just blind-tailing you now!

BOL Clutch! 

One name: Patrick Miller (TST):

0-4 fg, 0-2 FT, 2 turnovers in the closing minutes. Great!

Down to 80% for me

First road team I'm taking in this system so bet accordingly (smaller than usual) and i will also count this play separately for the moment.

HAR/PRI

This total (129-129.5) is right where it should be and the fact that most people like the under tells me that not many people who are betting on this game really follow this Princeton team this season. In years past, a total in high 120's would be an automatic 'under' bet for Princeton games, but this season Princeton has 9 overs and 3 unders, their games average 136.5 ppg and their totals are rarley as low as this one today. The fact is, Ptinceton tempo is much faster this season. In last 8 Princeton games, when the total is 132 or lower, Princeton is 0-3 ATS and when it is 132.5 or higher, Princeton is 5-0 ATS. Just in last 5 weeks they had a total of 129 two times and they went 0-2 ATS in those games.

Handicapping:

Harvard is hotter, they have revenge on their minds (4 straight losses to Princeton and last three by 3 points each), they are battle tested on the road (win at BC, close loss at Michigan) and as it seems to me, they have more playmakers this season. This line should be a little bit higher based on Princeton's home record alone but it is not, and it looks like a real trap.

I'm taking Harvard +2 for 0.75 of unit here and this is the first time i'm incorporating a road dog in my system. Play it smaller, or just watch out without betting until we find out if those road dogs can hit the same winning percentage as the home dogs.