Reds $$$$ Method - Explained

Crush, what site has 78/91%? Action? Thanks for the information!

Action Network is the site (also an app) - paid service but not very cost-prohibitive.  Along with the bet % data, functionality to track picks in the app (with live score updates) / follow your friends is a nice feature.

Thank you, Cap!   

I'm on VCU--and liked them before the movement, when they opened a point short on the road of where KenPom projects the game (70-68 URI).  While I personally am on VCU, in the spirit of this thread, a refresher on one of Red's biggest elements of his system:

I like them too, if they were home I'd definitely be taking them! 

Plays that fit today.. Wisc miluakkee and wisc GB.

Also a few totals.. Overin BG & Quinnipiac

Have done no research so not positing 

Won with St Pete yesterday

Any chance you can do some “after the fact” research and explain why wisc Green Bay didn’t end up working?  It would be very helpful for us to understand some things we can do on the “human element” side that can help us determine when to lay off one of these!

thanks for all of your help!

I'd be happy to, I'm working all day today but once I get a chance I'll give a breakdown of each team statically. There's also times where you do all the research, everything lines up but shots are missed and stuff happens. But yes I'd be more than happy to give you a glimpse of how I like to breakdown a game using kenpom. 

BOL to everyone today! 

No, think you misunderstood.  Red said that there is also a “human element” to the analysis so I’m using that game as an example of how he can explain that aspect of analysis, that’s all.  

Thanks for the response Red!  Really appreciate you teaching us all!

This is harder because I cant pull the data as easier on kenpom after the game but here it goes - Right off the rip I like they they were able to into n ky and win earlier in the season.  I see the perimiter being a wash.  N KY is bad from the perimiter but great at defending and the opposoite is true for Wisc GB - Advantage No one - both teams will be under 35% easily.

Effective FG% honestly goes to N KY - 43rd in the nation in 2pt FGs and Wisc GB honestly struggles at defending that and with 3Pts being a wash I gotta give the edge to N KY in here. Rebounds seems about even too. Not gonna tough to find a huge edge here

Rebounds seem even maybe a slight edge for GB on protecticing the ball when forcing TO's 

If either team can win TO's or or 3PTers I'm sure they'll win the game

What is interesting is im sure the o/u is very high given that wisc gb averages less than 15 seconds per possession! 2nd highest in the nation.  The fact that it seems like both teams will not shoot well from the 3 leans me towards the under.  Unless somehow unless either team can hit 50+% fgs but I just dont see that happening.  Neither teams has top shooting and while GBs defense isn't great - again lets go back to how bad N KY from is from the perimiter.  While they're top 50 in 2pt fgs they struggle from the line and GB isn't AWFUL at defending the inside the arc.  Unless either team catches fire hard to see this being a shootout.  Ultimately I probably wouldn't have touched this game it seems pretty even and the spread makes sense.  If anything the under but totals aren't my thing unless I see something that SCREAMS to take it.  This may have been one but its hard to say so objectively after the fact.

Again this was tougher to disect because I cant get the screen I want with good side by sides after a game is done but the things I look for are poss length to establish tempo, effective FG% and breakdown both 2 and 3pters and, then I like to look at indvidual player stats at rebounding as well as the teams ability to grab offenseive boards and what they're top used players strengths are if that plays into team 'B's weaknesses.

I've actually looked for this in the past... and ended up finding a sneaky way to view the "Game Prep" page after the fact (assuming that's the one you want to see).

https://kenpom.com/gameprep.php?g=3784

If you hover over the game score on either team page, you'll see the URL preview is "https://kenpom.com/box.php?g=3784" - replace the "/box" part of the URL with "/gameprep," and it'll take you to the page that was available before the game.

Didn't realize KenPom was unapproved source... well, I guess you'll have to fill in the blanks. 

 _____.com/box.php?g=3784 will send you to the box score for the game in reference.  Visit _____.com/gameprep.php?g=3784 to view the pregame H2H comparison for that game.

That's brilliant! Haha never knew this excellent hack, thank you cap! 

Looking at Siena  for later today. Steady money on Saint Peters but line moves from Siena +1 to -1.5

Is Siena a play? They are not a home team though 

Not a home team and pay attention to the ML bet splits, especially in games with a tight spread.  ~65% on Siena ML.

Nice catch Cap. 

Question:  Baylor at K State.  Line opened at 7, 90% of money is on Baylor.  Line holding at 7.  Does this somewhat fit or am I completely misinterpreting system?  As in you have “line movement” as a 100% necessity?

That is the “making” of a Redtear pick. But still a little early.

1)home dog
2)heavy money on favorite coming in

3)little to no line movement 

Like RowdyBurns says...it's still early. 

If you want to follow RedTear's method to a tee you'll need to wait for some sort of line movement then do some research. 

I know many people use RedTear's method and throw a little personal wrinkle. If it holds at 90% (which I sort of doubt) and the line doesn't budge (assuming no injuries or major news) then some cappers will go with KSU since no line movement with high betting trend is just as good as a not-as-high betting trend with small line movement. 

N. ARIZONA seems to fit too?0

this is what sportsinsights is based on RLM but thanks for sharing the other advice.  i hit 56-59% of cbb total you can check me on contest 8th place last year the other thing i would do is calculate your own total and line and see if it is off from posted total and defense?offense so a total of 140 has 2 teams avg 150 on offense but 130 on defense is an under play all the way i would estimate 5 points difference or more definitely 10 pts is profitable over juice...last 5 games most important and conference which you can click on covers matchup to get the #s