Posted:
#376
Looking at Evansville today. RLM, home dog. And opponent is not good road team. BOL everyone.
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Reds $$$$ Method - Explained
Posted:
#381
Quote Originally Posted by jskrieg:
Lots of games fitting the description tonight... Ole Miss Providence Samford Valpo Vandy
Lots of games fitting the description tonight... Ole Miss Providence Samford Valpo Vandy
Long time Covers reader. first time poster. I followed the system tonight and went 3-3 (the Samford game was not offered on my book and Nebraska-Omaha was an additional team that seemed to fit the criteria as well as Providence though they were a favorite at game time).
Ok, I understand the logic behind what we are doing: advantages of a home dog accompanied by a reverse money line. It seems to me the greatest advantage we are gaining is finding a fairly quick method of following smart money. The one misgiving I have is that we don’t get our bets in until after the smart money has moved – so smart money gets the benefit of the line play, whereas we jump on the line after it has moved, and most often lose out on a line that was 1-2 points better earlier in the day. So while the system logic is sound to me I’m wondering if the point or 2 we lose to the smarts offsets the system’s advantages. Case in point: I hated like hell following the system tonight to take Valpo (a 12-11 team) against a 19-3 conference opponent and only receive a 3 ½ point cushion (though in fairness Redtear says you gotta tweak decisions with your head and what you believe sometimes).
I’ve still been playing the system because I believe it’s well thought out, but my bets have been minimal until I see evidence of consistent pay-offs.
Thoughts?
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Posted:
#382
Quote Originally Posted by Wayverider:
Quote Originally Posted by jskrieg:
Lots of games fitting the description tonight... Ole Miss Providence Samford Valpo Vandy
Long time Covers reader. first time poster. I followed the system tonight and went 3-3 (the Samford game was not offered on my book and Nebraska-Omaha was an additional team that seemed to fit the criteria as well as Providence though they were a favorite at game time). Ok, I understand the logic behind what we are doing: advantages of a home dog accompanied by a reverse money line. It seems to me the greatest advantage we are gaining is finding a fairly quick method of following smart money. The one misgiving I have is that we don’t get our bets in until after the smart money has moved – so smart money gets the benefit of the line play, whereas we jump on the line after it has moved, and most often lose out on a line that was 1-2 points better earlier in the day. So while the system logic is sound to me I’m wondering if the point or 2 we lose to the smarts offsets the system’s advantages. Case in point: I hated like hell following the system tonight to take Valpo (a 12-11 team) against a 19-3 conference opponent and only receive a 3 ½ point cushion (though in fairness Redtear says you gotta tweak decisions with your head and what you believe sometimes). I’ve still been playing the system because I believe it’s well thought out, but my bets have been minimal until I see evidence of consistent pay-offs. Thoughts?Lots of games fitting the description tonight... Ole Miss Providence Samford Valpo Vandy
I work in the service dept of a car dealership. Everyday we see cars that come in with a check engine light and the customer instantly thinks we can tell them whats wrong with their car just based off the code from the CEL. Anyone who knows cars knows that is SO NOT the case. There a human element to diagnosing the concern. The car's a map and that check engine is just telling us where to look for the problem.
Each night, that card is a map, some days theres 75+ plays. The system tells you where on the map to look, but as I've long stated theres a HUGE human element to this where you need to take the time to dive down that kenpom rabbit hole and do the research. I posted this system as I just dont have adequate time most days to research each game that fits. And as far as those 1-2 pts go..if you think those 1-2 pts are gonna be the difference then the game probably isn't worth taking in the first place.
If you follow it blindly I have no doubt you'd end up profitable over the course of the season but quality over quantity is key. Take the time, do the research, reap the rewards.
2
Posted:
#384
Quote Originally Posted by redtear2989:
Quote Originally Posted by Wayverider:
I work in the service dept of a car dealership. Everyday we see cars that come in with a check engine light and the customer instantly thinks we can tell them whats wrong with their car just based off the code from the CEL. Anyone who knows cars knows that is SO NOT the case. There a human element to diagnosing the concern. The car's a map and that check engine is just telling us where to look for the problem. Each night, that card is a map, some days theres 75+ plays. The system tells you where on the map to look, but as I've long stated theres a HUGE human element to this where you need to take the time to dive down that kenpom rabbit hole and do the research. I posted this system as I just dont have adequate time most days to research each game that fits. And as far as those 1-2 pts go..if you think those 1-2 pts are gonna be the difference then the game probably isn't worth taking in the first place. If you follow it blindly I have no doubt you'd end up profitable over the course of the season but quality over quantity is key. Take the time, do the research, reap the rewards. Quote Originally Posted by jskrieg:
Lots of games fitting the description tonight... Ole Miss Providence Samford Valpo Vandy
Long time Covers reader. first time poster. I followed the system tonight and went 3-3 (the Samford game was not offered on my book and Nebraska-Omaha was an additional team that seemed to fit the criteria as well as Providence though they were a favorite at game time). Ok, I understand the logic behind what we are doing: advantages of a home dog accompanied by a reverse money line. It seems to me the greatest advantage we are gaining is finding a fairly quick method of following smart money. The one misgiving I have is that we don’t get our bets in until after the smart money has moved – so smart money gets the benefit of the line play, whereas we jump on the line after it has moved, and most often lose out on a line that was 1-2 points better earlier in the day. So while the system logic is sound to me I’m wondering if the point or 2 we lose to the smarts offsets the system’s advantages. Case in point: I hated like hell following the system tonight to take Valpo (a 12-11 team) against a 19-3 conference opponent and only receive a 3 ½ point cushion (though in fairness Redtear says you gotta tweak decisions with your head and what you believe sometimes). I’ve still been playing the system because I believe it’s well thought out, but my bets have been minimal until I see evidence of consistent pay-offs. Thoughts?Lots of games fitting the description tonight... Ole Miss Providence Samford Valpo Vandy
just use identifix LoL. The redtear of carfixes 
No Gamble No Future
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Posted:
#385
Also if you don’t want to pay for KP, which since you are risking money on these games, you should dig deeper not follow blindly. Anyway I’ve used Haslemetrics website in the past.
One bit of research I’ve found would be the home/away splits. Haslemeteics has a good rating which shows the how much better a team is on the road vs at home. If everything fits and the home team isn’t highly ranked on their own turf or road team travels well I usually stay away.
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Posted:
#386
Like redtear said, the system narrows the plays down and you have to filter them from there. Had a great night last night because I weeded out Samford and Valpo (thought I did hit on Samford +12.5 live line).
Deciding what games to play is obviously the hardest part of gambling. This system is a way of weeding out 95% of the plays automatically, while still presenting you a few options that theoretically present good value. From there, you need to use your own judgement.
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