Posted:
#1
2016 Record: 4-1
How do you win money capping? Through pain.
How have we won the last 3 games posted?
We had to fade the best team in the history of the NBA in the Warriors with OKC +3.5. We won.
We had to spot the most points I've spotted in a decade with Illinois -16 over Rutgers, and Illinois is terrible. We won.
We had to take the always lousy Kings on the road in a back to back over the Mavs. We won.
Folks, if you are looking for a pick that feels like a shiatsu massage, don't look here.
Because this pick is worse than all of the above. But that is how we make money. That is why Vegas has synchronized fountains that people clap for. Even though water and mechanical sprinklers don't have ears to hear the claps. The beauty they create is so remarkable, applause, that disappears into the cosmos, is warranted for their performance.
Who pays for those fountains? The losing gamblers. Who are the losers? Squares who lazily pick massive favorites without any serious capping.
You want to win, you will feel pain.
The pain today comes in the form of the Scarlet Knights.
This game tips at Saturday 1pm EST if you want in.
Time to cap this game. You came for the sex and videotape? Well here it is.
1. Sex and Videotape
The leading scorer for this team will not be in uniform for the Gophers. His name is Nate Mason. A sex tape video surfaced on Instagram of Mason, Kevin Dorsey and Dupree McBreyer. All 3 were suspended for the rest of the season. The impact losing Mason can't be underestimated.
He averages 13 and 5 and in his last 4 was averaging 16 and 5. He's gone for good.
Dupree McBryer is also gone for good. He was averaging 5 and 3 on the season but was surging with 12p and 4a in his last 4.
More importantly,
2. The Gophers just beat Rutgers 3 games ago on 2/23/16.
An ingredient for success in capping is to look at timing of games. If one team played another in a very close time frame and there is sufficient desperation with the team you are backing and if the opponent is beatable (the Gophers are VERY beatable especially with all these suspenions) then you can back a bad team to beat a good one and if necessary with points.
Why? The winning team doesn't adjust. Why would they? They won handily. The losing team comes into the game with adjustments and a blueprint against what the opponent will present fresh in their mind from a few days prior.
Mason and Dupree played against Rutgers. They combined for 27p, 7a, and 8r. All of that is gone. That's 1/3 of all output from that game up in smoke.
3. Player down, other players step up theory
I've commented on this in the past. Are you afraid of this? Don't be. First, this is the THIRD game the players have been suspended. Usually the theory holds the FIRST game, not after that.
Secondly, these players went out in a disgraceful manner! If it's injury, you can easily defend their honor. These players need to be defended because they aren't playing due to a ....sex tape. Folks, that's not going to motivate anyone on that court.
4. Corey Sanders
He's back. Like I said in the Illinois/Rutgers thread, this guy is EVERYTHING to Rutgers.
But Rutgers season has been SO BAD, there were few to no articles for his return in the Michigan State game. It's as if the papers and the books didn't care (as they didn't adjust the line properly a full 6 for the home and home vs. Michigan State...from -29 to -25. It should have been from 29 to 23 minimum or even LOWER with Sanders back). Don't worry that MSU covered. I'll get to that.
The point is, Minny romped Rutgers on their home court without Sanders 83-61 and now the roles are reversed. Sanders is back for Rutgers and Minny's version of Sanders is out for this game @ Rutgers. Perfect. Things WILL be different this time.
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I love it when a home team is getting +2...
effin awesome
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