Sex, Lies, Videotap, a Century-Old Losing Streak, Awful Teams: Gophers @ Rutgers. WRITE-UP

How do you win money capping? Through pain.

How have we won the last 3 games posted?

We had to fade the best team in the history of the NBA in the Warriors with OKC +3.5. We won.

We had to spot the most points I've spotted in a decade with Illinois -16 over Rutgers, and Illinois is terrible. We won.

We had to take the always lousy Kings on the road in a back to back over the Mavs. We won.

Folks, if you are looking for a pick that feels like a shiatsu massage, don't look here.

Because this pick is worse than all of the above. But that is how we make money. That is why Vegas has synchronized fountains that people clap for. Even though water and mechanical sprinklers don't have ears to hear the claps. The beauty they create is so remarkable, applause, that disappears into the cosmos, is warranted for their performance. 

Who pays for those fountains? The losing gamblers. Who are the losers? Squares who lazily pick massive favorites without any serious capping. 

You want to win, you will feel pain.

The pain today comes in the form of the Scarlet Knights.

This game tips at Saturday 1pm EST if you want in.

Time to cap this game. You came for the sex and videotape? Well here it is.

1. Sex and Videotape

The leading scorer for this team will not be in uniform for the Gophers. His name is Nate Mason. A sex tape video surfaced on Instagram of Mason, Kevin Dorsey and Dupree McBreyer. All 3 were suspended for the rest of the season. The impact losing Mason can't be underestimated. 

He averages 13 and 5 and in his last 4 was averaging 16 and 5. He's gone for good.

Dupree McBryer is also gone for good. He was averaging 5 and 3 on the season but was surging with 12p and 4a in his last 4.

More importantly,

2. The Gophers just beat Rutgers 3 games ago on 2/23/16. 

An ingredient for success in capping is to look at timing of games. If one team played another in a very close time frame and there is sufficient desperation with the team you are backing and if the opponent is beatable (the Gophers are VERY beatable especially with all these suspenions) then you can back a bad team to beat a good one and if necessary with points.

Why? The winning team doesn't adjust. Why would they? They won handily. The losing team comes into the game with adjustments and a blueprint against what the opponent will present fresh in their mind from a few days prior.

Mason and Dupree played against Rutgers. They combined for 27p, 7a, and 8r. All of that is gone. That's 1/3 of all output from that game up in smoke.

3. Player down, other players step up theory

I've commented on this in the past. Are you afraid of this? Don't be. First, this is the THIRD game the players have been suspended. Usually the theory holds the FIRST game, not after that. 

Secondly, these players went out in a disgraceful manner! If it's injury, you can easily defend their honor. These players need to be defended because they aren't playing due to a ....sex tape. Folks, that's not going to motivate anyone on that court.

4. Corey Sanders

He's back. Like I said in the Illinois/Rutgers thread, this guy is EVERYTHING to Rutgers.

But Rutgers season has been SO BAD, there were few to no articles for his return in the Michigan State game. It's as if the papers and the books didn't care (as they didn't adjust the line properly a full 6 for the home and home vs. Michigan State...from -29 to -25. It should have been from 29 to 23 minimum or even LOWER with Sanders back). Don't worry that MSU covered. I'll get to that.

The point is, Minny romped Rutgers on their home court without Sanders 83-61 and now the roles are reversed. Sanders is back for Rutgers and Minny's version of Sanders is out for this game @ Rutgers. Perfect. Things WILL be different this time.

Minny only has two players of note:

#1 Jordan Murphy

He killed Rutgers the first time out with 19/14/4. One of the reasons was that two of Rutgers big men Ibrahima Diallo and Greg Lewis were out. Their presence will make a difference this time around.

Walk-on Stephon Sharp is a wild card. He's averaging 17 over his past two games and will play a major role here. But I don't have a problem fading a walk-on as a primary scorer in this spot.

So in total, Minny will not have FIVE of their top SIX scorers for this game. Folks as bad as Rutgers has had it, they haven't had it as bad as Minny has it here (and Rutgers has been very, very bad).

7. Backing a team on a losing streak

Ingredient for capping success: look for losing streaks.

Well we get the whopper of all whoppers in Rutgers history. Rutgers just lost its 17th in a row against MSU. That is the LONGEST STREAK IN 100 YEARS. Yes, 100! 

They also have a THIRTY TWO game conference losing streak.

Do you want to carry that burden and record breaking losing streak into the offseason? Do you want to lose to a team that is playing with 5 of it's top six scorers out at home? What more do you want in terms of opportunity? Minnesota is shuttering its own season against any and all, even Rutgers, and before they suspended their leading scorer and heart and soul and an upcoming guard, they were a mere 8-19 and 2-13 in conference. Now they are 8-31 nad 2-15.

Folks, this team is not that far off from Rutgers with or without suspended injured players. Rutgers is 6-24 and 0-17 in conference. Again, these two teams are not that far off.

11. The line

The line is +2 Rutgers. Folks, that adjustment for all these injuries is NOT ENOUGH. I said the same thing with Corey Sanders out vs. Illinois -15. It was too few points to lay. Vegas took this line from +12.5 Rutgers @ Minny and adjusted it 10.5 pts. That's a TON. BUT it's not a ton when Rutgers gets it's best player by far back in Sanders who didn't play @ Minny and when Minny loses FIVE of 6 top scorers.

When that happens Rutgers should be a favorite! But the books can't make Rutgers a favorite because of a 17 game losing streak, a 32 game conference losing streak and the fact they hate to adjust game FAR beyond their typical 6 pt swing from home to home and certainly won't swing a 12.5 pt away dog to a 2/3 pt favorite for any college player!

Think about that. This line should be -12.5 - 6 for the switch from home to road = -6.5 and Minny loses 5 scorers including their best guard and top scorer, their best three point shooter, and we get our top scorer back and they only discounted the line 4 points more! I could make an argument Sander's presence ALONE could get this line to +2.5! AND we get all the Minny players out too if we take Rutgers??? 

When big time streaks end they end with authority. These games typically end with one team running the other team off the court just like St. John's did recently to Depaul to snap a record losing streak. If they bring the same fire and intensity they brough against MSU in the first half, we will be sitting pretty.

Note: Minny scored 49 at HOME against Wisconsin, a season low and it's not even close. The effect of the missing roster is real.

love the insights as usual, lets get this 

Really love the analysis. -2 Minny seems too good to be true, and in most cases and this one, it is. I'm in on Rutgers +2