hey neil... i dabbled on covers a little in the past, had a pretty good run goin and got pummeled late in the year as the tide turned to squaresville. i'm an avid reader of yours and still play, but this is my first post in some time.
based on your analysis of today's games, here's the card i've come up with. any games yu think i should stay away from?
florida
charleston
south dakota state
usc
tennessee tech
SEMO
nevada
UNC/NCSt over
UCLA/Utah under
weber st
apply st
thx very much brutha. you are, by far, the most knowledgable capper on this site...
thx very much brutha...
Bet on a home underdog coming off a straight up victory as an underdog in their previous game.
Past three seasons: 59.04% win rate.
Confidence + Motivation + Momentum = Upset.
Any team that fits this situation has this equation working for them.
Confidence is produced when the team gets a victory as an underdog.
Motivation is created by the home court atmosphere.
Momentum is present from the previous victory.
Teams in this spot also present major value against the line. Nine times out of ten the home underdog will be playing far better than the line indicates. A one game span is seldom enough time for the betting public to make proper perception adjustments. This results in the line being propelled up towards the road favorite.
Neil - Looking at the Iowa-Neb game, With Iowa on 9 days rest, I think McCaffery had these guys work on a few things...With Iowa already tying their win total of all of last year, they finally have a fan base thats pay attention to the team and is making some noise at home, resembling a home court advantage. The Hawkeyes have alot of confidence and looking for an NIT berth. I think Iowa is poised for a double-digit win. I feel Iowa will try to push the tempo is this game and see if the Huskers can keep up. At first I liked the over, but even with Iowa playing 3/4 press and running up and down the court, I think Nebraska on their end tries to slow down the pace and just doesnt hit their shots...Im looking hard at Iowa -4.5. Your take?
Probably doesn't mean shit really.
What's the sample size of bets making up that 59.04%?
There are millions of angles that can be looked at, and naturally some trends will look good and profitable. However past results don't mean future results will follow the same course. Each game needs to be assessed individually as there are many factors that will help you identify any value in a play.
Would you take the home underdog at +2 if you capped the spread at +10 instead, just so you can follow this 'sharp' trend? Obviously not - hope not anyway!
Bet on a home underdog coming off a straight up victory as an underdog in their previous game.
Past three seasons: 59.04% win rate.
Confidence + Motivation + Momentum = Upset.
Any team that fits this situation has this equation working for them.
Confidence is produced when the team gets a victory as an underdog.
Motivation is created by the home court atmosphere.
Momentum is present from the previous victory.
Teams in this spot also present major value against the line. Nine times out of ten the home underdog will be playing far better than the line indicates. A one game span is seldom enough time for the betting public to make proper perception adjustments. This results in the line being propelled up towards the road favorite.
[/Quote
thanks Neil GL with your card as well tonight 
Established in 1995,
Louetech likes to push tempo and fresno is relying on D more this year. 
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