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Posted: #26
thoughts on the badgers tonight?
 
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Posted: #27
Az St ML ?

Can SEMO stay with AP who imo is still underrated due to early season woes?

Should Wisky be favored by 7.5 over any decent team right now?

BC +18 with the total set at 110 ? They arent expecting BC to reach 45......hmmm

FAU -11.5? Seems like a stretch for a team that cant score very well.

NCST +13? UNC having to scramble the lineup a bit with injury and they are soft.....

and
 
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Posted: #28
I really like UW-Milwaukee hosting Butler, layin just 3.5, when just a month ago, they only lost AT Butler by 4... only thing that even gives me slight pause is goin chalk against a team playing its 2nd straight road game (in this case, it's actually Butler's 3rd straight roadie).

Who you like in this one?


 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Dosan23:

Wow Super Early today Nropp! Nice...

One game has me intrigued, USC laying 1 point to Colorado...is Colorado going to be the sucker play of the day? Can you please give me some in depth look into how USC can with this game with 2 guards  that are 5'7 and 5'10 going up against guards from Colorado that are all over 6 feet tall. The only thing I can see as an advantage for USC besides homecourt is Dedmond at 7 foot has a huge size and weight advantage over Colorado's players. Will he be able to take advantage of his size?

Again thanks for your time and nice hit on Pitt yest!

I'm going to refer to the Colorado/Wyoming game here for a bit of reference. In that Wyoming game, if you don't have guards that look to penetrate rather than take the outside jump shot, you're going to struggle as Colorado does against these types. USC's defense is very similar to Wyoming's. If you can't penetrate, then you're playing right into their hands.

And that's what I think happens tonight. USC's been playing terribly, but this is actually a game where they have an advantage. They welcome in a jump shooting team that they can defend.

Size isn't all that big of an issue in a game like this that will be played slow, as Colorado is going to have to hit some outside shots. 

I don't necessarily think backing USC is all that good of an idea with that offense, but they will have some nice opportunities as you alluded to the size in the paint.

GL
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Az St ML ?

Can SEMO stay with AP who imo is still underrated due to early season woes?

Should Wisky be favored by 7.5 over any decent team right now?

BC +18 with the total set at 110 ? They arent expecting BC to reach 45......hmmm

FAU -11.5? Seems like a stretch for a team that cant score very well.

NCST +13? UNC having to scramble the lineup a bit with injury and they are soft.....

and


I been lookin at NCST, too.  the heels seem to be losing that aura of invincibility and NCST's an underrated team in what is also an underrated rivalry.  seems like the sharps are pickin the wolfpack, too.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Az St ML ?

Can SEMO stay with AP who imo is still underrated due to early season woes?

Should Wisky be favored by 7.5 over any decent team right now?

BC +18 with the total set at 110 ? They arent expecting BC to reach 45......hmmm

FAU -11.5? Seems like a stretch for a team that cant score very well.

NCST +13? UNC having to scramble the lineup a bit with injury and they are soft.....

and
train SE MO JUMPED OUT AT ME?????
 
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Posted: #32
I could really make the same argument about Rutgers and UT that was made on Ole Miss. UF lost to both of them.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by 222bad:

  I think you already know how much I believe this is a great way to form a winning ticket. Another CAA game with revenge, but with a couple of home team  injuries to factor in;

           Wm+ Mary @  J Madison -6 ??

I think the revenge angle is nice, although this involves two of the worst in the conference compared to yesterday's best in the conference.

As for the injuries, Moore and Wells are certainly replaceable, so I wouldn't let that keep you off James Madison. I would say that James Madison would have the value here, but they just haven't looked the part this year. Game comes down to the three-ball, should have quite a few attempts go up (JMU was 2/23 first meeting).

GL
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


I'm going to refer to the Colorado/Wyoming game here for a bit of reference. In that Wyoming game, if you don't have guards that look to penetrate rather than take the outside jump shot, you're going to struggle as Colorado does against these types. USC's defense is very similar to Wyoming's. If you can't penetrate, then you're playing right into their hands.

And that's what I think happens tonight. USC's been playing terribly, but this is actually a game where they have an advantage. They welcome in a jump shooting team that they can defend.

Size isn't all that big of an issue in a game like this that will be played slow, as Colorado is going to have to hit some outside shots. 

I don't necessarily think backing USC is all that good of an idea with that offense, but they will have some nice opportunities as you alluded to the size in the paint.

GL


Wouldn't Colorado being a jump shooting team be a good thing since their guards are all taller than the USC guards, thus can basically shoot over them? I don't quite understand...
 
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Posted: #35

I'll chime on the UNC/NCSU game...

Imo, its one to watch and avoid from a betting stand point until you see how UNC responds to the loss of their utility man and best lockdown defender in Strickland...

But, I think you get value here with a buy low UNC team who is usually a huge public backed squad. Tonight it appears that they will side w/ NCSU due to their recent string of ACC wins, UNC's national television blowout vs FSU, and the highly reported loss of Strickland...

To touch on NCSU, they are tied for first atop of the ACC, but this record is deceiving. Their wins are over Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College and Miami in conference play. Their lone loss is to GT...All aforementioned teams were picked in the bottom half of the ACC this season...NCSU has lost to all quality opp this year with the likes of Cuse, Vandy, and Indiana...All at home. Bottom line, they have a stellar conference record so far beating up on the bottom dwellars of the weak ACC...The ACC teams NCSU has defeated have a record of 9-16 and have no better than a RPI of 127...

Imo, we see a highly motivated UNC squad coming off a confident 2nd half blowout/lockdown of VT after trailing at HT...The loss of Strickland is a huge factor as he was the primary defender of an opponents go-to players. With the loss of Strickland, UNC will add the bonus of offense with the prolific play of Hairston and Bullock. Bullock will start in place of Strickland. He has the intagibles and the scoring ability to make up for the loss of Strickland. Hairston is also an underrated defender who was recruited primarily as a 3 point sharpshooter...

As for the Marshall losing his back up PG in Strickland, UNC can cope. White will only have to play limited minutes as Marshall can average over 35 mins per game. In fact, it was over this number for last years last 9 conference games and all of the post season games...The backup PG issue shouldnt be a factor unless Marshall gets in foul trouble which he rarely does...

If UNC comes into this contest with a "come to Jesus" mentality that smart defensive play (like the play exhibited in the 2nd half vs VT) is the way to play every facet of the game, than UNC can and will win this one...The early knockout blow is key to get the crowd energized and get State to hang their heads early...

 

Stong lean to UNC as you rarely get UNC at such a low number at home...

 

 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by Dosan23:



Wouldn't Colorado being a jump shooting team be a good thing since their guards are all taller than the USC guards, thus can basically shoot over them? I don't quite understand...

the problem with that is that they have to hit the shoot when they shoot it...an off night could mean a loss if they cant penetrate

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by dangor2:

Neil,

How do you think SD State responds after their big win.  Let down at Oakland?  Does ND State rebound against IPFW?  Meanwhile, I am weak in my Southern Conference knowledge.  I'm curious if anything stands out there.  Ten points too much for C of C to cover?

Yesterday, I can't believe how putrid Seton Hall looked against Notre Dame.  What a pretender they are.  You were right about the under there.  Never in question.


Revenge for Oakland, but more importantly, how did two of the fastest teams in the country only play to a 63 possession game the first meeting??????????????

I didn't see it, so I have no idea. But it doesn't make sense. 

Oakland can certainly score, but they can't defend. They're 5-5 in the conference, they beat the five teams below them in the standings, and have lost to the five ahead of them. To those teams ahead of them, they've given up 96, 76, 89, 71 (western illinois snail), and 93. It would appear that they're playing better with their three latest victories, but those games came against the following defenses:

#315 IUPUI
#271 IPFW
#250 Southern Utah

Value is on South Dakota State. Would be nervous of a letdown after OT win, as well as Oakland's home court.

IPFW sucks, but I'm not trusting North Dakota State on the road ahead of Oakland.

COC is probably safe tonight. They're at home and have had some time to recover from the Davidson loss. Should get their best effort tonight, but Furman does have 23 point revenge. Would be interested to see how COC defended them the first meeting which only resulted in 43 Furman points (zone?).

Yah, pissed I didn't grab that under. Was an under bettor's dream.

GL


 
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Posted: #38

Quote Originally Posted by ac_bum:

train SE MO JUMPED OUT AT ME?????

i like peay...why on semo?...insight would be appreciated..thanks

 
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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by DannySatan:



I been lookin at NCST, too.  the heels seem to be losing that aura of invincibility and NCST's an underrated team in what is also an underrated rivalry.  seems like the sharps are pickin the wolfpack, too.

ncsu will try to run with carolina and that could be a mistake...if it gets into a half court game ncsu will get killed on the boards

ncsu could keep it close and even win if they hit their shots (like fsu did againist caorlina and duke)...the only problem with ncsu is that they are streaky

prob lay off the side but the under looks ok if it stays where it's at

bol to all who plays this game

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by NickOSU22:

Washington st +9
Indiana +7
Whats ur thoughts 

Zona's hit or miss this year, tough call there.

I'm not a big believer in the Indiana defense. I think this has the potential to be a really good game.

On a side note, Jordan Taylor's poor shooting this year is the only reason that Wisconsin's offensive efficiency stats aren't through the roof. He's struggling, and not sure why. If he ever gets on track, team is more dangerous than it already is.

Would probably point Wisconsin.

GL
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by NickOSU22:

And iowa -6

Two clashing styles. Can honestly say I have no idea how that one plays out.
 
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Posted: #42
   One more "revenge" game nroop  Oakland at home against So Dak St.  S Dak St off back to back roadies and off a big win.  Oak's brutal schedule , especially out of conference, makes them look like a lesser opponent then they actually are.  I read the last two times these two met @ Oak , that Oak hung over 100 points on them both games.  5-5 in conference, a must game for Oak , if not just for seeding come conference tourney time, and such a small line?  Thanks in advance.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by 222bad:

   One more "revenge" game nroop  Oakland at home against So Dak St.  S Dak St off back to back roadies and off a big win.  Oak's brutal schedule , especially out of conference, makes them look like a lesser opponent then they actually are.  I read the last two times these two met @ Oak , that Oak hung over 100 points on them both games.  5-5 in conference, a must game for Oak , if not just for seeding come conference tourney time, and such a small line?  Thanks in advance.
  Just read your thoughts.
 
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Posted: #44
Nropp can you touch on Latech vs Fresno?
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Lucrative:

I'll chime on the UNC/NCSU game...

Imo, its one to watch and avoid from a betting stand point until you see how UNC responds to the loss of their utility man and best lockdown defender in Strickland...

But, I think you get value here with a buy low UNC team who is usually a huge public backed squad. Tonight it appears that they will side w/ NCSU due to their recent string of ACC wins, UNC's national television blowout vs FSU, and the highly reported loss of Strickland...

To touch on NCSU, they are tied for first atop of the ACC, but this record is deceiving. Their wins are over Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College and Miami in conference play. Their lone loss is to GT...All aforementioned teams were picked in the bottom half of the ACC this season...NCSU has lost to all quality opp this year with the likes of Cuse, Vandy, and Indiana...All at home. Bottom line, they have a stellar conference record so far beating up on the bottom dwellars of the weak ACC...The ACC teams NCSU has defeated have a record of 9-16 and have no better than a RPI of 127...

Imo, we see a highly motivated UNC squad coming off a confident 2nd half blowout/lockdown of VT after trailing at HT...The loss of Strickland is a huge factor as he was the primary defender of an opponents go-to players. With the loss of Strickland, UNC will add the bonus of offense with the prolific play of Hairston and Bullock. Bullock will start in place of Strickland. He has the intagibles and the scoring ability to make up for the loss of Strickland. Hairston is also an underrated defender who was recruited primarily as a 3 point sharpshooter...

As for the Marshall losing his back up PG in Strickland, UNC can cope. White will only have to play limited minutes as Marshall can average over 35 mins per game. In fact, it was over this number for last years last 9 conference games and all of the post season games...The backup PG issue shouldnt be a factor unless Marshall gets in foul trouble which he rarely does...

If UNC comes into this contest with a "come to Jesus" mentality that smart defensive play (like the play exhibited in the 2nd half vs VT) is the way to play every facet of the game, than UNC can and will win this one...The early knockout blow is key to get the crowd energized and get State to hang their heads early...

 

Stong lean to UNC as you rarely get UNC at such a low number at home...

 




I just don't see how UNC is supposed to score enough points to win by 13, when a) they're without arguably their best defensive player, and b) their opponent tonight has scored 75+ in 8 of their last 9 games.
 
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Posted: #46
Thanks bud.  Bol
 
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Posted: #47

Louisina Tech -2 looks like it is a few points short to me. Any thoughts on this game are much appreciated?

On a side note Creighton put up 77 in a game that was played at pretty close to a snails pace atleast for Creightons standards. Drake controlled the tempo in the game and it was pretty much a walk the ball up and run sets type of a game. So I do think you were probably on the right side of that one yesterday as you can't expect that to happen in that type of a game.

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by DannySatan:




I just don't see how UNC is supposed to score enough points to win by 13, when a) they're without arguably their best defensive player, and b) their opponent tonight has scored 75+ in 8 of their last 9 games.
   Last nine games for NC St;


Mia Fla
BC
WFor
GTech
Mary
DelSt
WCar
Camp
NE
           Any less than 75 points against these teams, with most games at home, would be a shame.
 
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Posted: #49
@222bad, so what's your point?  That NC-State's been puttin up those totals against bad defenses?  Cuz, newsflash:  Carolina is a bad defense.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by ac_bum:

 NEIL 

E KENT OPENED AT PK NOW +1
SE MO
E WASH
ID ST

TALL ORDER THANK FOR YOUR THOUGHTS

See some value with Tenn Tech. In the past week, EKU's gone to a 2OT game with Martin, and just played a faster than normal, I mean really fast Longwood team that plays zero defense. Tech's more talented, but they don't guard the three-point line, which is where almost all of EKU's points come from.

Slight value on SEMO. Peay's on third game end of roady, and SEMO with revenge from last year's tourney. SEMO's taken care of business at home, different atmosphere there this year. And they match up with Peay a ton better than they have in past years. Going to be a bunch of slashing and creating in this one. Team that does it better should win.

I think Montana's too big, and too talented, but they let teams launch from beyond the arc and that's what EWU does on offense. Tough game.

No thoughts on Idaho State. Generally not interested in any game in the Big Sky unless it involves Montana or Weber State. Teams 3-9 in that conference are pretty even and can win on any given night.

GL
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