I am dying to get your thoughts on the two early Bracketbuster games, Drexel-Cleveland and Wichita-Davidson. With Cleveland playing poorly lately, I'm thinking Drexel can steal a win on the road. I hate betting against Wichita, but home dog for Davidson might be tempting since it means so much more to them. Am I on the right track?
I probably put the Drexel game at a PK without D'Aundray Brown in the lineup.
I think Wichita's in the -5, -6 range, too.
I like your line of thinking.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by dangor2:
Nropp,
I am dying to get your thoughts on the two early Bracketbuster games, Drexel-Cleveland and Wichita-Davidson. With Cleveland playing poorly lately, I'm thinking Drexel can steal a win on the road. I hate betting against Wichita, but home dog for Davidson might be tempting since it means so much more to them. Am I on the right track?
I probably put the Drexel game at a PK without D'Aundray Brown in the lineup.
The points do look tempting, but VT has been an absolute money pit this season (6-14 ATS). Promised myself that the Duke game was the last time I would side with the Hokies this season.
Not playing either side of that one, but how do you feel about the under? 4 of the last 5 matchups between these two have played well under 127, and VT playing as slow as it ever has under Greenberg...
GL nropp, always enjoy your threads
I would point under, just scared of all those "extra" opportunities that lead to more points.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by Rollbama1237:
The points do look tempting, but VT has been an absolute money pit this season (6-14 ATS). Promised myself that the Duke game was the last time I would side with the Hokies this season.
Not playing either side of that one, but how do you feel about the under? 4 of the last 5 matchups between these two have played well under 127, and VT playing as slow as it ever has under Greenberg...
GL nropp, always enjoy your threads
I would point under, just scared of all those "extra" opportunities that lead to more points.
That was a good spot for GTech so I can understand the line movement there. This game is different in my opinion. The line in should have been more like FSU by 7.5 and now moving to 10 is begging for VT $$$. FSU dominates
We can agree to disagree. I'll keep capping the teams that take the court that actually determine the outcome of a game. You keep capping the line movement.
GL
0
Quote Originally Posted by TBadour1:
That was a good spot for GTech so I can understand the line movement there. This game is different in my opinion. The line in should have been more like FSU by 7.5 and now moving to 10 is begging for VT $$$. FSU dominates
We can agree to disagree. I'll keep capping the teams that take the court that actually determine the outcome of a game. You keep capping the line movement.
Solid as a rock! Was going to stay away from this one, but may need to reconsider. Nice pick last night, you saw right through that high chalk. You see any value with Denver 1H?
GL
Hard to not like Denver at home against a team that's taken part in two OT games within the past week coming into altitude (and 3 out of their 4 so far in February have gone to OT). Teams gotta be tired, and the altitude just might be the trick. Curious to see if they're able to go up and down as they normally do. I like it.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by RedRiver:
Solid as a rock! Was going to stay away from this one, but may need to reconsider. Nice pick last night, you saw right through that high chalk. You see any value with Denver 1H?
GL
Hard to not like Denver at home against a team that's taken part in two OT games within the past week coming into altitude (and 3 out of their 4 so far in February have gone to OT). Teams gotta be tired, and the altitude just might be the trick. Curious to see if they're able to go up and down as they normally do. I like it.
Hard to not like Denver at home against a team that's taken part in two OT games within the past week coming into altitude (and 3 out of their 4 so far in February have gone to OT). Teams gotta be tired, and the altitude just might be the trick. Curious to see if they're able to go up and down as they normally do. I like it.
Neil I love your analysis and you definitely know your stuff but saying a team is tired after two ot games and 3 out of 4 in Feb is just not accurate. Four games in 15 days whether they went to OT or not is nothing for a young kid. I played college ball and there was pretty much never a spot where me or the guys went into a game and were tired. The altitude will definitely have an affect but I can promise you the OT games will have no bearing. Remember you are talking about 19-22 year old kids here a prime example is Uconn in the Big East Tourney last year. All everyone kept saying is well they have to be tired after two games in two nights, oh they have to tired after three games in three nights...never happened. Thanks for the Davidson analysis yesterday, talked me into a play. You and Kine are the real deal, thanks again for sharing with all of us.
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[Quote: Originally Posted by nropp11]
Hard to not like Denver at home against a team that's taken part in two OT games within the past week coming into altitude (and 3 out of their 4 so far in February have gone to OT). Teams gotta be tired, and the altitude just might be the trick. Curious to see if they're able to go up and down as they normally do. I like it.
Neil I love your analysis and you definitely know your stuff but saying a team is tired after two ot games and 3 out of 4 in Feb is just not accurate. Four games in 15 days whether they went to OT or not is nothing for a young kid. I played college ball and there was pretty much never a spot where me or the guys went into a game and were tired. The altitude will definitely have an affect but I can promise you the OT games will have no bearing. Remember you are talking about 19-22 year old kids here a prime example is Uconn in the Big East Tourney last year. All everyone kept saying is well they have to be tired after two games in two nights, oh they have to tired after three games in three nights...never happened. Thanks for the Davidson analysis yesterday, talked me into a play. You and Kine are the real deal, thanks again for sharing with all of us.
Hard to not like Denver at home against a team that's taken part in two OT games within the past week coming into altitude (and 3 out of their 4 so far in February have gone to OT). Teams gotta be tired, and the altitude just might be the trick. Curious to see if they're able to go up and down as they normally do. I like it.
Neil I love your analysis and you definitely know your stuff but saying a team is tired after two ot games and 3 out of 4 in Feb is just not accurate. Four games in 15 days whether they went to OT or not is nothing for a young kid. I played college ball and there was pretty much never a spot where me or the guys went into a game and were tired. The altitude will definitely have an affect but I can promise you the OT games will have no bearing. Remember you are talking about 19-22 year old kids here a prime example is Uconn in the Big East Tourney last year. All everyone kept saying is well they have to be tired after two games in two nights, oh they have to tired after three games in three nights...never happened. Thanks for the Davidson analysis yesterday, talked me into a play. You and Kine are the real deal, thanks again for sharing with all of us.
I may be over-estimating the fatigue effect, but you can't discount the fact that UL Lafayette is one of the fastest teams in the country travelling into altitude. Playing the prior games to OT is just an added bonus.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by Gimmmethatjuice:
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
Hard to not like Denver at home against a team that's taken part in two OT games within the past week coming into altitude (and 3 out of their 4 so far in February have gone to OT). Teams gotta be tired, and the altitude just might be the trick. Curious to see if they're able to go up and down as they normally do. I like it.
Neil I love your analysis and you definitely know your stuff but saying a team is tired after two ot games and 3 out of 4 in Feb is just not accurate. Four games in 15 days whether they went to OT or not is nothing for a young kid. I played college ball and there was pretty much never a spot where me or the guys went into a game and were tired. The altitude will definitely have an affect but I can promise you the OT games will have no bearing. Remember you are talking about 19-22 year old kids here a prime example is Uconn in the Big East Tourney last year. All everyone kept saying is well they have to be tired after two games in two nights, oh they have to tired after three games in three nights...never happened. Thanks for the Davidson analysis yesterday, talked me into a play. You and Kine are the real deal, thanks again for sharing with all of us.
I may be over-estimating the fatigue effect, but you can't discount the fact that UL Lafayette is one of the fastest teams in the country travelling into altitude. Playing the prior games to OT is just an added bonus.
What do you think bout the duke under 151 and washington under 132....Last 4 yrs duke under after feb 1st. 24-11 and washing 3out 0f 4 metting between these two teams has gone under.
Thanks for your thoughts
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Hey Nroop11
What do you think bout the duke under 151 and washington under 132....Last 4 yrs duke under after feb 1st. 24-11 and washing 3out 0f 4 metting between these two teams has gone under.
Maybe the young lads are not physically tired, but from a mental standpoint, close games, OT games are emotionally and mentally draining. It seems to me that many of the plays Neil makes are combinations of teams that are coming off one of these and are due for an upward bounce in effort, and the expectation that their opponent could well be due for a drop off in effort, efficiency, etc.....
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Maybe the young lads are not physically tired, but from a mental standpoint, close games, OT games are emotionally and mentally draining. It seems to me that many of the plays Neil makes are combinations of teams that are coming off one of these and are due for an upward bounce in effort, and the expectation that their opponent could well be due for a drop off in effort, efficiency, etc.....
Curious how your record breaks down by conference? I know it would take sometime to put together but theres gotta be a degenerate follower out there who could pull it together.
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Hey Neil,
Curious how your record breaks down by conference? I know it would take sometime to put together but theres gotta be a degenerate follower out there who could pull it together.
Pitt - probably their worst match-up in the conference from a physical standpoint.
Arizona is just a weird game. They hit 15 three's the first time around, and that was the game that Aden went down in a few weeks back so WSU's had some time to get use to not having him in the lineup whereas the 2H of that one they didn't have any experience with that. Been a roady they always struggle with, even the wins have been ugly. Gun to my head, I'd probably point Arizona but if I had to make a guess, Washington State probably won't play a zone considering the first game results.
Like Duke. NC State doesn't defend 3 well, and this game should be ultra-fast. I like NC State's size at the guard position, but if you don't defend well, then it's useless.
I'm not a big fan of BC. Second game of roady off a physical defense and snail into a faster setting against a team that can fill it up at times.
San Fran was the first game I crossed off. Line doesn't make sense. I know BYU has some issues in terms of a few injuries, but these are just two different teams. San Fran has looked good as of late, but they haven't competed with any of the "uppers" in the WCC. Granted, those were road games, but still. Team plays extremely fast, they'll have more athleticism, but eh. I just didn't look into it as much as I probably should have. Home court? Not sure how much they will have. BYU's been selling out all of these small gyms b/c they're fans travel so much.
Oregon I'm not really interested. Been playing better, but Cal's the cream of the crop here. When Cal shows up, they're extremely tough to score on.
Think Washington should show up again and make some noise now they're at home, just not confident laying that big of a # if this game gets slowed down to pulp.
And for the first time this year, I can see some value on Oregon State finally but sandwiched in between Washington and Cal is a slight concern.
Pac-12
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by ZonaCats:
Thoughts on these?
Pitt
Zona
Duke
BC
SF
Oregon
Wash
Oreg St
Pitt - probably their worst match-up in the conference from a physical standpoint.
Arizona is just a weird game. They hit 15 three's the first time around, and that was the game that Aden went down in a few weeks back so WSU's had some time to get use to not having him in the lineup whereas the 2H of that one they didn't have any experience with that. Been a roady they always struggle with, even the wins have been ugly. Gun to my head, I'd probably point Arizona but if I had to make a guess, Washington State probably won't play a zone considering the first game results.
Like Duke. NC State doesn't defend 3 well, and this game should be ultra-fast. I like NC State's size at the guard position, but if you don't defend well, then it's useless.
I'm not a big fan of BC. Second game of roady off a physical defense and snail into a faster setting against a team that can fill it up at times.
San Fran was the first game I crossed off. Line doesn't make sense. I know BYU has some issues in terms of a few injuries, but these are just two different teams. San Fran has looked good as of late, but they haven't competed with any of the "uppers" in the WCC. Granted, those were road games, but still. Team plays extremely fast, they'll have more athleticism, but eh. I just didn't look into it as much as I probably should have. Home court? Not sure how much they will have. BYU's been selling out all of these small gyms b/c they're fans travel so much.
Oregon I'm not really interested. Been playing better, but Cal's the cream of the crop here. When Cal shows up, they're extremely tough to score on.
Think Washington should show up again and make some noise now they're at home, just not confident laying that big of a # if this game gets slowed down to pulp.
And for the first time this year, I can see some value on Oregon State finally but sandwiched in between Washington and Cal is a slight concern.
What do you think bout the duke under 151 and washington under 132....Last 4 yrs duke under after feb 1st. 24-11 and washing 3out 0f 4 metting between these two teams has gone under.
Thanks for your thoughts
If Duke and NC State play to their strength, which is getting out in transition, then there should be some value in the over. NCST was lined at 159 at UNC, and the pitiful offensive display there is probably why there is value in an over here. Duke's offense is a bit better, and their defense definitely isn't.
The other game really just depends on how much of the game ASU is going to be able to control.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by SoCal311:
Hey Nroop11
What do you think bout the duke under 151 and washington under 132....Last 4 yrs duke under after feb 1st. 24-11 and washing 3out 0f 4 metting between these two teams has gone under.
Thanks for your thoughts
If Duke and NC State play to their strength, which is getting out in transition, then there should be some value in the over. NCST was lined at 159 at UNC, and the pitiful offensive display there is probably why there is value in an over here. Duke's offense is a bit better, and their defense definitely isn't.
The other game really just depends on how much of the game ASU is going to be able to control.
Maybe the young lads are not physically tired, but from a mental standpoint, close games, OT games are emotionally and mentally draining. It seems to me that many of the plays Neil makes are combinations of teams that are coming off one of these and are due for an upward bounce in effort, and the expectation that their opponent could well be due for a drop off in effort, efficiency, etc.....
This. I should stress this. Fatigue and all of these spots that open up generally deal with the "mental" state as opposed to the physical. Lookaheads, letdowns, travel, fatigue etc...more mental than physical.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by MitchC:
Maybe the young lads are not physically tired, but from a mental standpoint, close games, OT games are emotionally and mentally draining. It seems to me that many of the plays Neil makes are combinations of teams that are coming off one of these and are due for an upward bounce in effort, and the expectation that their opponent could well be due for a drop off in effort, efficiency, etc.....
This. I should stress this. Fatigue and all of these spots that open up generally deal with the "mental" state as opposed to the physical. Lookaheads, letdowns, travel, fatigue etc...more mental than physical.
I'm with you on VT +10. I've been fading this team all season and have been making a lot of money doing it, but I can't see FSU beating us by 10.
Big Factor that will decide this game is if Davilla and Raines can keep
FSU off the boards. They combined for only FIVE rebounds last game.
OUR CENTERS GOT A TOTAL OF FIVE REBOUNDS!!! If we can keep James off
the boards, I think we could possibly win this one straight up.
And losing Barksdale should not worry you at all, He's good against lower tier opponents but struggles to score against guys bigger than him like Gibson and James. Both Bernard James and Jon Henson had a field day with him, we're not losing much value here.
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I'm with you on VT +10. I've been fading this team all season and have been making a lot of money doing it, but I can't see FSU beating us by 10.
Big Factor that will decide this game is if Davilla and Raines can keep
FSU off the boards. They combined for only FIVE rebounds last game.
OUR CENTERS GOT A TOTAL OF FIVE REBOUNDS!!! If we can keep James off
the boards, I think we could possibly win this one straight up.
And losing Barksdale should not worry you at all, He's good against lower tier opponents but struggles to score against guys bigger than him like Gibson and James. Both Bernard James and Jon Henson had a field day with him, we're not losing much value here.
nropp, any concern w/ Greenberg not "letting out" a line-up(or is he serious) when he says "the 5 guys who practice the hardest will play"....what u think?
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nropp, any concern w/ Greenberg not "letting out" a line-up(or is he serious) when he says "the 5 guys who practice the hardest will play"....what u think?
any feel on wisky/msu? mich st is playing some of the best basketball of any team.. gut said wisky but i dont know if they can create enough offense against msu defense
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any feel on wisky/msu? mich st is playing some of the best basketball of any team.. gut said wisky but i dont know if they can create enough offense against msu defense
What
are your thoughts on Michigan ST.....they have been killing competition at
home...i also like the under in that game, i would not be surprised is Wisconsin
does not score 50 points...
I like Denver too....... do you like the over 132 in that game?...i can see
Denver scoring over 70 points by themselves....meaning that Lafayette, as a fast team, should be close to 60 points....
Thanks again
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Hello Neil, thanks for all your work.....
What
are your thoughts on Michigan ST.....they have been killing competition at
home...i also like the under in that game, i would not be surprised is Wisconsin
does not score 50 points...
I like Denver too....... do you like the over 132 in that game?...i can see
Denver scoring over 70 points by themselves....meaning that Lafayette, as a fast team, should be close to 60 points....
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