Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 27-19, +26.90
February Leans: 29-25
Just one for today. Interesting match-up here at Florida State tonight. Two really good defenses, and two offenses that at times can't score to help their cause. And I see value in the Hokies and their ability to make this a game a drag it out, slow it down style of play. When the Florida State offense is hitting, they look awfully good. Take the UNC/Maryland/Duke/Wake stretch where they posted point totals of 75, 76, 84, and 90 for instance. They looked really, really good in fact in a fast setting. However, those are not the best of defenses to compare to tonight's opponent in Virginia Tech. As of late, this FSU offense has put up 64, 60, and 58; Hardly big enough numbers to cover such a high spread here. About a month ago, these two met in a game that went to 66 possessions, a few possessions more than what Virginia Tech wants to play (they average 64). Virginia Tech lost by 4 after a 2H rally came up a bit short. First meeting saw Virginia Tech make 6 of their first 32 shots, and they were never out of the game. Oddities within that game? Well, Florida State blocked 15 shots (only 1 of these occured outside of the paint with a guard). When you have a high # of shot attempts blocked, more importantly 15 of them, it's going to be tough to score. Not only that, but those blocks generally will lead to transition opportunities for the opponent, which FSU likes to take advantage of. So, how was this game even close? Well, it's sort of the story of the Florida State season. The times they look good, they're able to push the pace and score. When they can't get up and down, they resort to a half court offense that has big time troubles holding onto the ball. Against the top half defenses in the ACC, here is FSU's turnover numbers: 15, 17, 19, 16, 15, and 19. That's certainly alarming going up against a tough guard pressure defense in Virginia Tech, and against a Virginia Tech team that should thrive to score on those turnovers. The extra opportunites for the pup to stick around in this game should always be there. It's been a rather awkward February for FSU thus far. Played two games at home against two above average defenses, and it didn't look pretty. Yes, they beat Georgia Tech, but they were without Glen Rice Jr. Hit the road for a game at Boston College and lost outright, then came home and squeaked by Miami FL. The common denominator in all four of these games? Teams slowed them down and stuck around with their defense. Georgia Tech led by one at the half despite shooting a poor percentage without their main cog. Miami FL couldn't throw the ball in the ocean in the 1H and found themselves down by 2 at the break. Virginia? They were down 1 at the half, FSU took control early 2H but also about gave that game up. And Boston College, well, they're Boston College. I hesitated possibly going 1H here, but I think there is more value in the full game. There should be stretches where Florida State just simply doesn't score, and there will be stretches where they just hand the ball over to the other team which leads to points. If those don't occur in the 1H, then they should in the 2H. Now, Virginia Tech has been pretty bad. I can admit that. But, ten points is quite a bit in a game that will be played in the half-court against a team that hasn't shown they can consistently produce in that type of setting. Other aspects of this game I should add, first, Virginia Tech might be without Barksdale. I'm OK with that. He's been a nice big man off the bench at times in little minutes, and he did start recently over the weekend, but his offensive and defensive #'s are less in less time than any other big man on the roster, so I'm not worried about it. Him not being there puts more emphasis on the guards, which is where I want the ball tonight or they're going to get blocked another 15 times in the paint. Virginia Tech's also going through a stretch here where their coach said the five hardest working players were going to see the court. Hence, that's why Barksdale got the start instead so we should see some inspired play from a team who has recently been called out. Also have momentum, off a win at the buzzer on Sunday. Just seems like a game that should follow suit in the series between the two. Slow, grind it out game where the team that takes advantage of the extra opportunities should come out ahead, and with that, I'll take the chances with the points.
3* Virginia Tech +10
Lean: Ole Miss +4
Lean: Arizona/Washington State Under 137
GL
0
gl nropp.
. Your probably right a lot more games to chose from! Probably put a 1/2 unit on UNLV and take the points. Just so hard with UNLV playing like a HIGH SCHOOL team on the road. It will be a good game to watch!!!
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