Turning your 100k into one mill - the big play board

As I figured, Creighton rolls and the Pens don't show up.  So missing out on Wiscy cost me 10k there.  I also forgot to post a 3 team 8 point teaser with UConn, GT, and Sd St which looks like it'll probably hit.  So a few mistakes here.  Shoulda been a plus 15k day or so and it's a -6k day.  Pretty unhappy.  I'm picking games really well.  Just forgot to post this stuff in time today.

Also, while yesterday looked good, the Baylor game was a bad beat as they led almost the whole game.  And Iowa probably should have won although I will say I should have taken Arkansas instead. 

$134,100

GT predictably beating Syracuse.  Why was Syracuse favored?  They can't shoot.  They're on the road vs a team that plays good D at home and has beaten the crap out of several good teams on their floor.  Really stupid line.

If you have the funds, I would recommend following my picks.  But the thing is you have to bet all the games.  You can't pick and choose.  The way to win in sports betting is through volume and creativity in your bet types.  We should have ended the week at about 160k on the roll.  We will start next week with 25k less which is very disappointing.  However, I know this bankroll will only grow and it's a matter of time not if.

$121,100

26. 3 team ML parlay Marquette Florida Baylor (-160)  $32,000 to win $20,000

As an fyi, I originally wanted to substitute Purdue for Marquette.  However, that game started earlier than I thought.  I assumed 6 central and it began at like 530.  Odds were better with Purdue as they were laying 7.  Looks like they will win.  Baylor is up big, Florida up big also.  So if Marquette loses this game and I lose for the second time in 3 days because I forgot to post a play in time I might have to hang myself.

Let's hope Marquette wins here.  I don't think they're gonna lose.  St. John's is a terrible road team, and Marquette has been playing well lately and needs this game to secure a spot in the tourney.  But who knows.  

lol maybe Purdue can do me a favor and lose.  Seriously though - the amount of teams that blow 7-8 point leads with 3 min left is mind boggling.  I got jobbed by Virginia yesterday.  Like how hard is it?  All you have to do is basically make ONE basket or get ONE stop the rest of the way.  Because if you drain the clock there's simply not enough possessions.  This happens almost every game.  And it seemingly never happens when I have the team that's behind - exception being Kansas vs WV.

My bet with Purdue included though would have been less as an FYI.  Prob 20k.

Thought yesterday was a good selection even though it lost.  Louisville is too good to give 8 to and still covered despite playing awful.  SD St was way too big a fav vs a team they struggle vs considering they cant score and lost outright at home.  Villanova was in revenge at home.  Essentially had to win vs a Butler team that I don't think is that good.  They've lost to a lot of medicore to not so good teams.  That was very surprising.  Bankroll at $122,900 coming into today.

28. 4 team ML parlay Warriors Cavs Wisconsin and Arizona (-105) 30k to win 28.6k

I don't give a ton of analysis here just because it's time consuming.  But I will occasionally just so you guys are aware I'm not just throwing out darts and posting random picks like most people do at this forum.

Expected value wise you're getting even money here and I'll tell you why this is a good play.

The Warriors have no shot to lose to the Clippers at home.  They've beaten this team like 15 times in a row.  They love playing LAC.  It's a rivalry game.  They hate them and always show up.  It's a bad match up for LAC.  They couldn't win with Chris Paul, and now they sure as hell can't win without him.  Their last 2 matchups were blowouts.  The most alarming was the second game.  GS was on the second leg of a road back to back.  LAC had the previous night off and was at home.  Still got drilled by double digits.  This one is in GS I don't see LAC with a shot.  Pretty much a lock.

Arizona is another lock.  First meeting at USC was dominated by Arizona despite a late run by USC.  Arizona is undefeated at home.  They are traditionally and outstanding home team.  To the contrary, USC is terrible on the road.  Look at the home road split the last few years.  Look at what they did vs UCLA.  Beat them at home handily.  Lost by 30 on the road.  They just don't have enough defensive talent to stay in road games with large crowds.  This team is undersized and will get dominated by big teams like Zona.  When you have no size, you give up tons of points in the paint.  Can't rebound.  Also makes it harder for you to score in the paint.  Bad combo.

Wisconsin I normally don't like laying points on the road.  But this is a spot where I just feel they will show up.  Ohio State is a bad team.  They've won like 1 road game this year.  Maybe 2.  They're not competitive on the road vs any decent team and lost at Wiscy by 30 earlier.  Now this is at home, but the problem is Ohio State is undersized.  I just talked about size up above.  But the teams that give Wiscy problems are teams that match up down low.  When Wiscy is bigger than you, now they can get easy points in the paint.  Given how good they are defensively, when they score easy they're too hard to beat.  The way you beat them is simply to clog up the paint with your big players and force them to shoot outside jumpers with lesser athleticism.  But Ohio State doesn't have that personnel.  They are very bad on defense.  And offensively not a great shooting team.  I think Wiscy has a limited ceiling given their offensive struggles at times, but as a smart bettor you have to know the matchup.  This is a good match up for them.  They have not had many issues with Ohio State the past few matchups.

As for Cleveland, look the Knicks are terrible.  They're on the road.  Occasionally, they show up and surprise you, but you just gotta roll the dice here.  Cleveland has owned this team in recent years.  The Knicks have no offensive plan.  They're a disaster and in major disarray.  If you think Cleveland is not tired and motivated to play, then you have to take them.  This is the first game off the All Star break.  No fatigue is a factor here.  And you want to get the second half started off on the right foot.  The Knicks honestly just don't score enough to win games like this.  You beat Cleveland with good ball movement and perimeter shooting and hope to turn them over and catch them on a not so good shooting team.  There are mediocre teams in the league who can win this game.  The Knicks just don't match up well.  Honestly, pretty much every team in the east is terrible in Cleveland.  That includes Boston, Toronto, Indiana, Charlotte, etc.  Atlanta is the only team that concerns me much in games like this because they are fundamentally sound and can get lucky on a given night.  The Knicks are trash though.

$92,900.  Lot of plays for Saturday.

29. Arizona -1 -115 11.5k to win 10k

30. 3 team 8 point teaser (-130) Northwestern to +11.5, Kansas to 0, Florida St to +6.5 13k to win 10k

31. 3 team 8 point teaser (-130) Miami to +11, Marquette to +9.5, Baylor to +10 7.8k to win 6k

32. 3 team 8 point teaser (-130) Villanova to -2.5, Minnesota to 0, Miami to +11 13k to win 10k

33. 3 team 8 point teaser (-130) VCU to +10.5, BC to +14, Boise St to -3 7.8k to win 6k

34. 3 team 8 point teaser (-130) Villanova to -2.5, Purdue to +8, Stanford to +16 13k to win 10k

35. 3 team 8 point teaser (-130) SC to +2, UConn to +13, TCU to +13 7.8k to win 6k

36. Kentucky ML(-200) 10k to win 5k

+4.7k the other day.  Bankroll at $97,300

37. 8 point teaser (-130) Cavs to -2.5, Rockets to -2.5, Virginia Tech to +9.5 13k to win 10k

38. 8 point teaser (-130) Cavs to -2.5, Rockets to -2.5, Virginia to +11.5 13k to win 10k

Bankroll at $71,300

Nothing stuns me in the NBA, but Houston just blows my mind.  Up 18-2 to start the game at home vs Indiana.  Indiana is terrible on the road this year.  A bad offensive team.  Just a bad loss.  NBA has definitely lost me a lot with this bankroll.

39. 4 team ML parlay Purdue Creighton Kentucky and Colorado St (even) 12k to win 12k

40. 4 team ML parlay Purdue Creighton Kentucky and Duke (even) 7k to win 7k

41. 3 team 8 point teaser (-130) Kentucky to -2.5, Purdue to -3, Creighton -2 7.8k to win 6k

Overall, I don't think there's any chance Purdue loses at home to Indiana.  Same with Kentucky and I'm surprised the line is low.  I would have thought it would be 13 or 14 vs Vandy.  St. John's is terrible on the road, and I think Creighton shouldn't have issues. As for the others, Colorado St is the better team at home and in a fight for the conference championship so I believe they will show up tonight with just a week left.  And I have a gut feeling Duke wins.  I just can't get over how Florida St. has looked on the road.  Totally diff team than at home.  They were lucky to win at Clemson.  Duke is coming off a couple losses and is at NC this weekend.  You lose this game you're looking at 4 straight losses.

42. 2 team ML parlay Grizzlies and Seton Hall (-110) 4.4kto win 4k

43. 2 team ML parlay Maryland and Boise St (+110) 2k to win 2.2k

I think Seton Hall is good value vs GT.  And the Grizzlies are pretty consistent against bad teams at home.  Well, usually.  We'll see tonight but this is a team they've had a lot of success.

Maryland coming off a bad loss and playing at Rutgers.  Rutgers just finds ways to lose to everyone.  I'll bank on that.  And for whatever reason I just got a feeling Boise wins tonight.  Fresno has been the best team in the MW at home.  On the road, they haven't been so good outside of a couple games. 

+27k last night.  Bankroll $98,300

44. 4 team ML parlay (-115) Spurs Florida Clemson USC 11.5k to win 10k

45. 3 team ML parlay (even) Florida USC Dayton 7k to win 7k

46. 4 team ML parlay (-115) Spurs Florida USC Texas Tech 8.5k to win 7k

47. Boston -1.5 3.3k to win 3k

48. 8 point teaser (-130) Jazz to +1, Rockets to +10, Northwestern to +10 7.8k to win 6k

+19.2k. Bankroll $117,500

As an fyi, made a big mistake with taking Utah tonight.  Again, I just can't figure out the NBA.  There is more randomness this year than I can remember in terms of inferior teams just randomly winning road games vs clearly superior opponents.  I was lucky with the SA game.  I should have substituted Marquette for Utah.  So that was a mistake that definitely cost me 15k with this roll.  Xavier just isn't very good and they can't blow out anybody decent by double digits.  Marquette is the better team and needed the win. 

Still a positive day.  Would have been nice to sweep, but won a couple close games.  I will go into detail sometime later about why teasers are such a good idea.  In college, they are very valuable in 9 to 11 point spreads in certain games.  There is a mathematical basis behind it, but I'll get into that later.