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Vegas vs Kenpom Week 7

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by Gfunkera86:

On a read through of week 6, I see the 65% refers to who people are taking in the covers contest - have u considered using a tool such as scoresandodds.com to get the percentages on a larger scale rather than just the covers community picks?


I have tried a couple different sites.  It seems that the contest picks offer a somewhat accurate sample.  I am not looking for an exact number for public plays, just trying to lay off heavy public plays in general.
 
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Posted: #102
I have gone through them up until the 8pm games.  So far I have wofford, Ft Wayne, and ODU as plays. 

ODU is at 61% right now...let me know if you guys see that over 65% at anytime between now and tipoff
 
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Posted: #103
This is what I have for tomorrow.  Let me know if you guys see something different.  This is not including anything that was over 65% late tonight.  There are a few percentages we need to keep an eye on tomorrow throughout the day.

Wofford
Ft Wayne
ODU watch %
Penn St
Jax St
Ark St
Oregon
Michigan watch %
SUU
Utah
Loy-Mmt
UC-Riv watch %
Oregon St
UCLA
 
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Posted: #104

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

This is what I have for tomorrow.  Let me know if you guys see something different.  This is not including anything that was over 65% late tonight.  There are a few percentages we need to keep an eye on tomorrow throughout the day.

Wofford
Ft Wayne
ODU watch %
Penn St
Jax St
Ark St
Oregon
Michigan watch %
SUU
Utah
Loy-Mmt
UC-Riv watch %
Oregon St
UCLA

Beaver what time does Kenpom update in the evening? The baby goes down around 10pm, so its perfect for me to check around 11pm est.

This is what I see off your list....(5dimes)

ODU -4 (Home, fav, away) (63%)

Mich +7.5 (Road, dog, away) (58%)

Ark St +3 (Home, dog, toward)

Penn St +6.5 (Home, dog, toward)

Oregon -1 (home, fav, none)

LMU +9.5 (home, dog, toward)

Oregon St -1.5 (home, fav, toward)

UCLA -1.5 (home, fav, away)

Wofford +2 (home, dog, toward)

Jack St -1 (home, dog, toward)

IPFW -2 (home, dog, away)

SUU +7 (home, dog, toward)

Utah +11 (home, dog, away)

Uc-Riv -3 (home, fav, away) 61%

 

This is what I see, LMK the mistakes. Im going to look at the %'s too after the games tonight. Interested to see how things match up.

Appreciate all the hard work Beaver.

 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Maybe we overreacted when the first 30 or so "away" plays did so well.  The last 11 have gone 4-7 including 0-2 tonight.  Back to 1 unit on everything for me.


I have a sneaking suspicion that once enough games have been played for KP to tighten up his database, that the winning percentage will regress to the mean.

All that means is that a more detailed analysis would need to be made to keep up with the curve.
 
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Posted: #106
 
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Posted: #107

Thanks Beaver!!

 
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Posted: #108

lol i agree  tennesee got drilled maN AFTER CINCY CAME THROUGH I WAS NOT EXPECTING MEMPIS TO KEEP THE HAMMER DOWN WAS HOPING TENNESEE WOULD ATLEAST GIVE US A BACK DOOR COVER

YEP BEAVER F,,,,,,,,,,K THE VOLS

 
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Posted: #109

Stiffler,

 

He usually updates about an hour after the last game is over.

 
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Posted: #110
Hey beaver what are the official plays so far?
 
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Posted: #111
Official Thursday Plays:

Ft Wayne -2 (Home, Fave, Away)
ODU -4 (Home, Fave, Away)
Wofford +1 (Home, Dog, None)
Penn St +6.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Jax St +1 (Home, Fave, Toward)
Ark St +3 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Oregon -1 (Home, Dog, Away)
Michigan watch +7.5 (Road, Dog, Away)
SUU +6.5 (Home, Dog, None)
Utah +11 (Home, Dog, Away)
Loy-Mmt +9.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Oregon St -2 (Home, Fave, None)
UCLA -2 (Home, Fave, Away)


 
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Posted: #112
Beav, I saw ODU at 65% early this AM.
 
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Posted: #113

Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat36:



I have a sneaking suspicion that once enough games have been played for KP to tighten up his database, that the winning percentage will regress to the mean.

All that means is that a more detailed analysis would need to be made to keep up with the curve.

Not sure that would be true BC. Kenpom is straight numbers while the Vegas line has intangibles thrown in that you and I will never know, like injuries as an example. KP can't factor in injuries because it is a strict statistical model.

 
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Posted: #114
Who the hell is SUU?
 
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Posted: #115
Southern Utah University
 
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Posted: #116

kirby...

Southern Utah

 
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Posted: #117
Good luck to everyone, I bet them all except ODU and MIchigan, added Pitt
 
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Posted: #118

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Official Thursday Plays:

Ft Wayne -2 (Home, Fave, Away)
ODU -4 (Home, Fave, Away)
Wofford +1 (Home, Dog, None)
Penn St +6.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Jax St +1 (Home, Fave, Toward)
Ark St +3 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Oregon -1 (Home, Dog, Away)
Michigan watch +7.5 (Road, Dog, Away)
SUU +6.5 (Home, Dog, None)
Utah +11 (Home, Dog, Away)
Loy-Mmt +9.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Oregon St -2 (Home, Fave, None)
UCLA -2 (Home, Fave, Away)


7-3-1 going into the last two. Some maybe 8-2-1 (when I locked in I had a 1/2 point different in some but on affected the Ark St game +3 1/2).

 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:

7-3-1 going into the last two. Some maybe 8-2-1 (when I locked in I had a 1/2 point different in some but on affected the Ark St game +3 1/2).

7-2-2 sorry

 
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Posted: #120
I got weird tonight with such a big board and teased 15 plays by 10.5 points. Added a good amount of  to the coffers for the weekend. Tiny card tomorrow so I may take a break and gear up for HUGE Saturday card. 

As of now this is all I see for tomorrow:

Wright State +2 (Home, Dog, Toward, Level 1)

 
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Posted: #121
thanks bro
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

I got weird tonight with such a big board and teased 15 plays by 10.5 points. Added a good amount of  to the coffers for the weekend. Tiny card tomorrow so I may take a break and gear up for HUGE Saturday card. 

As of now this is all I see for tomorrow:

Wright State +2 (Home, Dog, Toward, Level 1)

. I am feeling them as well.  I graded out these teams & it gave me Butler at pk, one of the offshore books opened this game at pk & has since moved to 2
 
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Posted: #123
Why is wright state a play kenpom has them at+2 and that is where they opened?
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by Candyman2011:

Why is wright state a play kenpom has them at+2 and that is where they opened?

The game opened at pk and so there is a 2 point difference. Kenpom has Butler -2 and the line opened at Butler pk so the play is Wright State
 
 
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Posted: #125
Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:


The game opened at pk and so there is a 2 point difference. Kenpom has Butler -2 and the line opened at Butler pk so the play is Wright State

 

Flyer is right, game opened as a pk. So the play is Wright State +2 (Home, dog, toward)

(I placed a bet last night on butler.....I just assumed it was a no play...)

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