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Vegas vs Kenpom Week 7

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Prospect
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Posted: #126
I see Iona openend at -21 but kenpom has them at -23 so would Iona be the play.
 
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Posted: #127
Beaver, I work tomorrow, a 24hr shift. I ll do my best to help out. I ll try and print the lines and KP off tonight before I head to bed. Try and help bang out a huge amount of games to look at.
 
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Posted: #128

Quote Originally Posted by darkknight8425:

I see Iona openend at -21 but kenpom has them at -23 so would Iona be the play.

anything over 16.5 is a 5pt difference.

 

 
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Posted: #129
Ok I see FLYER I miss read I thought it opened at -2 didn't see it was a pick. Still learning but I get it. Where can I see the public betting sides at? This system along with tailing nropp jfenn and troe has been good to me this week.
 
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Posted: #130
Another question. When you are saying away or towards are u referring to the spread moving closer or farther from kenpom lines, Vegas opening line?
 
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Posted: #131
The line moves I use are from the covers scoreboard. When you go to the ncaab scores page there is a link under every game that say "line moves". Click on that and use the earliest open. It's usually Betonline. As far as away, toward, that refers to the direction the vegas lines are moving in relation to kenpom. So for the wright st play, it opened at pk and has moved to Wright St +1.5 which is moving towards kenpom's line of Wright St +2
 
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Posted: #132

Quote Originally Posted by darkknight8425:

I see Iona openend at -21 but kenpom has them at -23 so would Iona be the play.

 

and that would mean niagara would be the play. your playing vegas not kenpom in this system

 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by DT44:

 

and that would mean niagara would be the play. your playing vegas not kenpom in this system

Not really. For games that open at 16.5 and above there needs to be a 5 point difference in the spread for to qualify as a play. -2 or +2 in this case makes it a no play for beavers system.

 
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Posted: #134

DT, heres the difference's that qualify plays

0-4  2pts

4.5-12- 3pts

12.5-16- 4pts

16.5 and up - 5pts.

 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:

Not really. For games that open at 16.5 and above there needs to be a 5 point difference in the spread for to qualify as a play. -2 or +2 in this case makes it a no play for beavers system.


Stifler I think he is saying theoretically if it was a play it wouldn't be Iona because Vegas opened as a lower favorite than kenpom. So if it was Iona -3 in kenpom and Vegas opened at Iona -1 then the play would be Niagara. I think it was a hypothetical. But you're right that this game is a no play because there isn't enough of a difference. 
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:

DT, heres the difference's that qualify plays

0-4  2pts

4.5-12- 3pts

12.5-16- 4pts

16.5 and up - 5pts.



I was always curious as to why the "4.5 to 12" point spread part was so large?
 
Legend
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Posted: #137
 
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Posted: #138
yea i understand that but i was just saying, if it would be a play on anything it would be niagara under the logic of this thread correct?
 
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Posted: #139
Sweet 10-3 night last night!

Official Friday Plays:

Wright State +3 (Home, Dog, Toward)
 
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Posted: #140
Flyer,

are you still keeping track of the level 1,2,3,4 statistics?
 
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Posted: #141

Quote Originally Posted by DT44:

yea i understand that but i was just saying, if it would be a play on anything it would be niagara under the logic of this thread correct?

Sorry DT, I misunderstood. My apologies. Yep Niagara.

 

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #142
Only one game today?  I missed your 10-3 run yesterday.  :(
 
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Posted: #143
Keep up the great work.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #144
Hoping for a big day tomorrow.  I freelanced tonight, Marist Siena Valpo and Wright St in multiple combinations. Parlays/Teasers/ML.... Looks like I ended up right where I started the night 
 
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Posted: #145
I have another question let's say Utah is +15 Vegas odds and +18 kenpom is this a level 3 or 4 because It doesn't qualify under level 4 but does in level 3
 
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Posted: #146
Which one do you look at first to determine how much the line must move Vegas or kenpom?
 
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Posted: #147
Kenpom. Then look at the lines. So the play above would have to be a 5pt difference in opening line. (I believe)
 
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Posted: #148
Nice job guys!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #149
Here is what I came up with not including public percentage
Miss state -1.5
George mason-4
Oklahoma +4.5
Indian state -2
Texas a&m -4
Southern miss -1
Providence +2.5
tennesse +8
drake +2
central Florida +1
ball state-7
Austin peay +6.5
Coastal Carolina+2
ucla-11
Iupu -1.5
Sacramento state+1
citadel -1
William& Mary +3
cs Fullerton +
la Lafayette +9.5
San Francisco +16.5
Louisanna Monroe +9




 
 
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Posted: #150
You will be going against Wisconsin in almost every game due to their inflated KP rating. 
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