Why are 82% on Arizona and pounding? My contrarian insight

I would watch this line, to see how it climbs (without getting too greedy if you like SMC). I think there might be  a lot of value here on SMC, a complete and balanced team from a small conference against these super-hyped Pac-12 champions. SMC plays at least as good on defense, is at least as efficient offensively, they are superior in rebounding, and they have experience on the court. If I were an SMC backer, I would be concerned with their performance against the last top-notch team that they played, Gonzaga, who they lost to three times. I notice that while SMC struggled to score against Gonzaga, Gonzaga is number 1 in opposing 2 point %, number 7 in opposing 3 point %, while Arizona is 116nd in opposing 2 point % and slightly worse in opposing 3 point %.  Whereas Gonzaga allowed SMC just 17 three point attempts in their last matchup, and 15 in their matchup before (@ SMC), Arizona allowed Oregon 22 three point attempts and UCLA 25 point shot attempts. I think SMC will be able to work the interior like they were unable against Gonzaga and also get up more threes, as they like to do, but were unable against Gonzaga.  This seems  like a  good opportunity to be contrarian. Line up to 5! I also mention that KenPom has SMC winning by 1, and Arizona is -5 with the whole world on them. According to sportsinsights, 3500 wagers and over 90% of the money is pouring in on Arizona, thus moving the line, but none of this is sharp money. This reminds me of that UVA upset vs UNC that the nice fellow with the hockey avatar pointed out--huge disparity from kenpom with public all over the public darling and public bloodbath.  But forget that public, % and line business, matchup-wise, giving more than 3 to SMC seems unjustified imo. This lack of respect for the WCC is surely a tad ironic considering how much love Gonzaga receives. SMC is super consistent and, to sum up, I can't imagine them not keeping up with Arizona, given the match-up, the potential to them to find the kind success in the interior and behind the arc that they were unable to against a defensively sounder Gonzaga team.

As superman posted out in another thread, Zona does not have that big Polish center in the interior that Gonzaga does, who could also get Landale in foul trouble. 

Who is Saint Mary's? Are they a D-1 Team? Hermanson and Co can only go so far Arizona wins tomorrow by at least 10.

 The line is already moved up one for AZ.  I would think this would favor their up-tempo style of offense ..12 out of 16 games went over on Friday....132 seems pretty low for a total .. the combined D average for both teams last 5 games is about 138 ...

Maybe the low number set by oddsmakers is an indication of the kind of game that we should be expecting? 61% on the over and number staying at 132.

excellent writeup It's just that the disparity in the quality of talent is significant 

Fair point in terms of talent. Given the lack of competition that SMC has faced, I won't make this a lean of mine (yet? Too sleepy to think). But I think it's worth considering at least as a value play and I think it's worth thinking about as a Zona backer.

I think SMC should be able to keep this one close.  Like you said, underrated because of the conference.  When they did play the Zags, they were completely dominated in each game, which is a bit worrisome.  But the slow pace of play, plus Landale in the middle, should be enough to keep it from becoming any sort of blowout.  Plus SMC is a great 3pt shooting team and and a great free throw shooting team.  I think most of us degenerates hate watching our picks miss free throw after free throw; they didn't shoot them as well in the round of 64, but I doubt that continues.  I expect a 3- or 4-point AZ victory to my disappointment. (SMC Alum)

https://www.azdesertswarm.com/2015/10/23/9602114/sonoran-hot-reads-arizona-to-play-saint-marys-in-secret-scrimmage

This is probably the Zags best team ever and they easily handled SMC this year. This may be a much closer game than expected though, you may very well be right. The line has gone from 3.5 to 4.5 and will probably close at 5 to 5.5 and have 65% of the final tally betting on AZ. Sometimes those win, but many more times do not. I took AZ -3 -140 early, I may hedge half of it if there's a fishy smell between now and then. AZ has so much more pedigree, I just have to believe they win the game and if they win the game, it won't be by 1 or 2. Maybe SMC's big 8 point win over VCU had the oddsmakers start the line out low? Travel safe my friend. 

It's Landale, Rahon, and Co the same team blasted vcu first round who had better athletes, faster guards ect

The short answer is a ton of Arizona fans will be there, Utah and Arizona are next to each other. 

VCU was able to score 77 against SMC because they forced 15 turnovers. Their D is 34th in turnover % so they are able to do that. Arizona's D, however, is 249th in turnover %.  I think we see a lower-scoring  or at least slower-paced game where SMC is able to establish more of a rhythm. They can run up and down with teams if they have to--like against VCU, and VCU has an athletic squad-- but I think we see a more comfortable affair for SMC--not easier by any means--but more advantageous to them, and this turnover aspect is only one more aspect imo that makes the matchup more appealing for SMC backers.

In terms of location, could be worth mentioning that Zona has yet to play in altitude Utah (or Colorado), whereas SMC beat BYU by 13 in Utah?  Not sure if i'm right about the geography?

while Arizona is a better matchup for smc than Gonzaga. Arizona is all business last 10 games outside of butt kicking in Eugene. They are playing at an elite level, with there sights set on a final four appearance, first for Miller, lost in elite 8 (3 times) . I think smc will compete. Love my gaels, but I just don't see them winning or even covering when it's all said and done against Zona. They have been getting in too much foul trouble, and when Landale or Rahon is off the court in foul trouble other teams run the court. They were up 16 against vcu, Landale picked up 4th and it turned into a 2 Point game, same with Landale in others games, like all 3 zags games. The question is will trier play like he did against north Dakota? Or like he did whole second half he was good enough to carry that team on his back, last game not so much but it didn't matter playing north dakota. As for sagarin and kenpom etc. I throw that out the door in this matchup it's so indicative. Arizona played a tough schedule and had a couple key players missing first half, trier and cartwright. And smc didn't really face anyone outside Gonzaga. All the stats and efficiencies are such variables at this point. Right now I lean first half over and full game over because I think Zona isn't as strong defensively as Gonzaga. I see maybe like a 72-62 type of game.

maybe you're on to something it is a more favorable matchup for St Marys to play Arizona than Gonzaga and at the same time Arizona lost to Gonzaga earlier in the season by 7. 

I like this a lot. Saint Mary's is extremely talented and they can shoot lights out any day of the week. I think they give zona a run for their money. I'm going to wait and take the points tomorrow on this one too Jags, BOL!

I think im going to take Arizona -5 and then tease St. Marys +15 with 3 others.

St marys got handled all three times it faces Gonzaga. Sure they dont have Karnewski, but they do have Lauri Markanan and he is going to shut down Landale just as easy tomorrow.

I think u of a wind a hard fought battle 67-60

https://www.azdesertswarm.com/basketball/2017/3/17/14964376/ncaa-tournament-bracket-ironic-secret-scrimmages-cancelled-arizona-wildcats-saint-marys-gaels

let me rephrase that

Can Ristic contain Landale?