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Why are 82% on Arizona and pounding? My contrarian insight

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by SHINSANITY:

I like this a lot. Saint Mary's is extremely talented and they can shoot lights out any day of the week. I think they give zona a run for their money. I'm going to wait and take the points tomorrow on this one too Jags, BOL!

BOL if you decide to play it. But, maybe I become more of a coward at the end of the season, but i myself am probably going to stay away from this one entirely. Have trouble backing a team that has beaten NOBODY GOOD all year. Deciding on games like this (where one team from a top conference and another team from a small conference play each other), more so than other games, requires watching both teams play--in order to gauge talent level--and I have to ultimately side with what superman says because he has seen the Gaels play way more than I have
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by PeachesLimon:

I think im going to take Arizona -5 and then tease St. Marys +15 with 3 others.

St marys got handled all three times it faces Gonzaga. Sure they dont have Karnewski, but they do have Lauri Markanan and he is going to shut down Landale just as easy tomorrow.

I think u of a wind a hard fought battle 67-60

Correct me if I am wrong but that Finnish dude is indeed tall but he's also skinny and does not bring nearly the same "size" and strength that the Pole does. 
 
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Posted: #28
I appreciate that anybody at all is willing to tail me. But let me say to shinsanity and whoever else that I am much less comfortable in non-conference play, hence the lack of plays from me right now. This is my first time capping March Madness and i'm learning a whole lot right now. And it was my first time capping conference play and I didn't win until the second half of it, and March Madness just started.


I AM NOT PLAYING THIS GAME PLEASE DO NOT PLAY SMC BECAUSE OF ME!

I was just posting some thoughts. The Zona backers make solid points. Don't want others to lose money because of me.
 
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Posted: #29
IDK I say your one of the worst coin flippers ever 
The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
 
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Posted: #30
THIS GUY!!!! Knows WTF he is talking about. I wish there were more of you on covers good sir.


LISTEN TO THIS GUY. Absolutely phenomenal points. I cannot give you enough credit, everyone take notes. There is always REASONING to every line. There is not a single gambling friend of mine who hasn't already taken Arizona. 5.....insane!!!!! Per KenPom, I capped St Mary's as a 3 pt favorite!!!!!!!!!! And now I realize the numbers I use in my metric can be skewed by being in the WCC (and being actually legitimate), I do value St Marys as a team. Like I said, I capped St Mary's as a favorite, but realized this is not a number vegas would ever post. Thus, -4 which I now see as far as 5.5.

I also capped Wichita as a +1.5 v KY....... I see that line ipeneing KY -5.



BOL to all. From a Louisville fan- stay the heck away or take Michigan Sunday!
 
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Posted: #31
I appreciate the compliment

Actually already leaning Michigan, thanks for the tip. Louisville's defense, and offense actually, rely a lot on turnovers--which they won't get from Walton. Pitino has therefore said as much that his defense is overrated. ( Thanks to Goat for pointing this out to me) Hence Louisville failed to cover against Wake and Notre Dame (even at home), both of whom are tops in ball security. Michigan is in that same category. And Michigan has proven to be able to overcome teams who are superior in rebounding (definitely the concern against Louisville).
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by PeachesLimon:

I think im going to take Arizona -5 and then tease St. Marys +15 with 3 others.

St marys got handled all three times it faces Gonzaga. Sure they dont have Karnewski, but they do have Lauri Markanan and he is going to shut down Landale just as easy tomorrow.

I think u of a wind a hard fought battle 67-60

Wouldn't it make more sense for you to tease Zona if you think they'll cover the 5?
 
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Posted: #33
nice write up good points but you gotta play SMU now u have to put the money where your money is or don't even start the topic
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by risktaker:

nice write up good points but you gotta play SMU now u have to put the money where your money is or don't even start the topic

I like starting conversation by playing devil's advocate. Helps me and hopefully others see things more clearly, as opposed to just hearing people agree with you. I don't think I have to bet anything, this has been a great discussion and I feel right about not playing this. I don't know smc well enough
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by ProudJagsfan:


I like starting conversation by playing devil's advocate. Helps me and hopefully others see things more clearly, as opposed to just hearing people agree with you. I don't think I have to bet anything, this has been a great discussion and I feel right about not playing this. I don't know smc well enough

that's fine I got no problem with that just saying you had good insight but when u said u not betting the game it didn't matter any more what u said to me at least keep doing it if it helps u out im out

 
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Posted: #36
The point is that my initial insight has to be qualified by the fact smc hasn't beaten any good teams
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by RexR:

The short answer is a ton of Arizona fans will be there, Utah and Arizona are next to each other. 

You can drive from Phoenix to Salt Lake in less than 12 hours.

St Mary's is only 40 miles longer drive (680 vs 720).  The difference is Arizona has 1000 times more fans than St Mary's but I expect a decent St Mary fan section.

The Gonzaga/Northwestern fans in the building will probably be rooting for the upset to balance it out though, because that would make their route to the Final 4 easier.
 
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Posted: #38
When I post a pick I will call it a pick and win or lose will be confident enough that nobody talks me out of it
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by ProudJagsfan:

The point is that my initial insight has to be qualified by the fact smc hasn't beaten any good teams


PJF look at his handle risktaker he likes throwing his money away just another troll.
 
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Posted: #40
It has got to the point in this forum were you can't voice your opinion on anything without some troll hating.   Nice write up its helpful because no matter whether you bet the game or not it gets you to do even more research.
 
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Posted: #41
Good Luck JFan
 
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Posted: #42
 Good to see an honest, extended discussion here..........I'm going with the public on this one. I'm sure it will be a good game for a while but AZ is hitting its stride.
 
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Posted: #43
Like the play GL ProudJagsfan


Gaels on my radar as well
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #44
Good job !  I have smc +5 in my pocket
 
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Posted: #45
I just can't see Arizona losing this game. You have to look at recent history and that shows us that SMC struggles against bigger and more athletic teams. They got blown out three times this year by Gonzaga. Yes I realize AZ lost to Gonzaga but that was without Trier. AZ is strong on both sides of the ball and are playing as well as anyone in the country. I think Arizona wins this game and covers rather easily.
Don’t let the last play affect the next play
 
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Posted: #46
Saint Mary's will keep it close! Jock Londale will make a lot of trouble in the paint and there's no shortage of shooters on this Saint Mary's team.

With all the money pouring in on AZ, you'd think the line would move a little more?

waiting for saint marys +5.5. I'll get it.
 
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Posted: #47
I think this line peaked at 5
 
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Posted: #48
Does this impressive Zaga showing add any credibility to St. Marys?


I think it does.



+4.5 now
 
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Posted: #49
If Arizona doesn't cover this i'm going to be mad at myself for overrating conference integrity. Same kind of deal with being too afraid to back Princeton--my rookie mistake again. Lesson to learn in March: basic law of parity = lay more value on matchup than conference/talent, after all, all of these guys are capable. Florida State also just got destroyed by Xavier despite imo undoubtedly having more talent (Bacon/Mayes).
 
 
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Posted: #50
pjf 
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