WISCONSIN vs. FLORIDA - The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

Record: 8-13 (I know. Close the thread now if that is too much to stomach.)

What has changed. My record. Last year I was 8-1 on this date.

This year. Not too good...Not too good at all.

What hasn't changed since last year?

The Wisconsin starting 5.

Happ, Hayes, Koenig, Showalter, Brown.

All of them. Playing together all year. Having just won their most important game knocking off the defending national champs.

4 of the 5 are going away. For good. All seniors. This is very powerful ladies and gentlemen.

Far beyond metrics, you are breaking up this team, this program if you beat them. You are sending home one of the most solid and experience starting 5 in the nation. Forever.

Think about that. Think about HOW MUCH MORE you will get from these 5, than you will an NBA game (I'm seeing the Cavs losing 88 to 101 to Denver tonight. This is every night in the NBA).

That is why you are here. You are here for the DEDICATION. You are here for the COMMITMENT. You are here for the PERSERVERENCE. You are here for the FUNDAMENTAL PLAY. You are here for the TEAM UNITY where one player doesn't need to shine above another and the win is only important.

That is why YOU are in the College Basketball Forum.

That is why you gamble on this sport over the NBA on night's like these.

You know what you are getting here in this sport. And it is very special. That ALONE is attractive.

And this Wisconsin team is very special with the 4 seniors playing for their lives. So powerful.

You saw it vs. Villanova. Foul trouble up and down the lineup. But they still they gutted it out; Nigel Hayes pulling his best Jordan vs. Knicks baseline spin move to the basket imitation.

That is digging deep. That is a team pulling out all the stops.

That is a team unwilling to die, even against the defending National Champs. Even as they were disrespected with an 8th seed. Another small motivator that should be mentioned.

So you get POWER of 4/5ths of a graduating line-up dying on the court in their final game (and one hell of a sophomore).

AND you get a team INFUSED with confidence after beating Villanova. That is PRECISELY what you do not want to give a team like Wisky, that goes long stretches without scoring. CONFIDENCE cures such ills. They have it now.

Not a SINGLE STAT mentioned thusfar but this is already a VERY powerful side in Wisky folks.

But then you get even MORE.

Wisky was in THIS EXACT same spot last year vs. Notre Dame in the sweet 16.

I capped that game and took Notre Dame in one of my toughest games I've ever posted:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=102258000

Why was it tough? I was fading this experienced, gutty starting 5. And that was last year. Before yet another year together. The same exact team. Battle-tested and now in the same spot. And Notre Dame a little bit more of the extras that I detailed in that write-up to come back and win and cover.

Now this year, the SAME starting 5 are back but they've also shored up their bench. They have Iverson and Trice now. They didn't have anything beyond their 5 last year. If they need them, that's that little bit extra shoring up the deficiencies.

So Wisky comes in with more experience, AND a bench that isn't magnificent, but certainly can contribute, giving their starters some needed rest. And we know the lulls, through tiredness, this team can endure.

And the bottom line is this folks: This Florida team, stellar defense and all, isn't better than the Notre Dame team this Wisky team lost to last year, particularly without its rim protector Egbunu.

Happ and Hayes are difference makers underneath. They will not be adequately taken care of. They will get their points.

Add to this Koenig, who, as Vandy showed, can be electric from 3 when he gets hot (24 points from 3 two games ago vs. VT). Also this will be his final game if they lose. Plus he's coming off picks all day, tiring out the opposing guard. That is quite dangerous.

So you get the bigs underneath (advantage), if Koenig gets hot that's another advantage from the perimeter on offense (not defense), and you get a defensive rebounding advantage.

Now Florida's defense of course is sensational but Florida backers should be worried. Their guard play in this tournament has been nothing short of horrendous: 5-29 from the field over two games from their two starting guards.  And the counter is, "Well they advanced even WITH that terrible play". That's true. But Virginia was just....well Virginia at its worst.

Perhaps we praise Florida for what it did on D to hold Virginia to under 30% shooting but think about being battle-tested:

Florida comes off a win over a lifeless carcass of a Virginia team.

Wisky comes off a win over the defending national champs in a nail-biter Wisky took control of right at the finish.

That is important in a tournament like this. Particularly after an extended period of rest.

A lot has changed. My record has. But this Wisky team has stayed the same for the better (and the bettor). AND we are DOGS against a Florida forced to win by 3 for us to lose and they will want to play this game like Wisky, super tight.

I'm not passing that up.

The pick:

Wisconsin +2 over Florida

There is no need to get caught up in one stat to dissuade you from a play.

I see this all the time in threads. I also see one stat being focused on (like turnover percentage or 3 pt shooting %) and somehow that is the impetus for the play.

That will not be effective capping over the long term.

If you do not give these teams the eye test when you watch them, if you do not cap from a macro-perspective, you will not win at the rate you desire.

As an example CSU Bakersfield is the seventh WORST team in the nation at FT shooting percentage and I took them over Colorado State. They man-handled them and then beat UT Arlington and that ONE STAT, FT shooting percentage (although in theory, quite desired for a side) would have left you with a no plat on CSU or the losing pick in both games!