WISCONSIN vs. FLORIDA - The more things change, the more they stay the same.....

No BWS, I actually defend my positions legitimately. And people don't 'eat that up', they like to hear an intelligent debate, which mainly comes from one side when arguing with Fluffy: My side.

there is literally nothing to argue here.   My point being that not one person on any of the titled threads brought up that crucial play which swung the ENTIRE GAME and you're a fool if you think otherwise.  Doesn't help that the Allen kid made every jumper in second half.   I've never seen a kid hit so many shots. If you include free throws , he made SIXTEEN SHOTS IN A ROW.     That's damn near impossible 

Why don't I bring that up, because the people I'm arguing with didn't do two things:

1) They didn't read or understand the OP

2) They didn't even watch the entire game.

So I don't go into minute details like that because I know they didn't watch the game.

Fluffy thinks Koenig is Wisky's 'greatest' player. I mean really. I wouldn't bother telling him about the 4 and half minute mark in the first half of the game after proclamations like that!

Wiscy sat out Hayes because he got himself in foul trouble and Florida took advantage.

7. Koenig isn't Wiscy's best player?  Are you out of your mind?  You'd rather have Happ or Hayes taking the final shot of the game?
I mean my god you're an imbecile.

Wow. Just went back to his post and he's actually doubling down on his asinine statement. Need I say more to this poster???

Eages Ykim. Others

The personal attacks imo are unwarranted on all sides. Two intelligent posters why not discuss civilly

Scal, who is the best player on Wiscy's roster?  According to you.  When I said greatest player, I said on this roster.  Not all time.  I would hope you'd be smart enough to understand that.  Is Hayes the best player?  Because he has no jump shot.  He shoots 50% from the line to Koenig's 90%.  Happ?  Shoots 50% from the line and has no jumper.  I saw him vs NC earlier this year and couldn't get off a shot vs their big athletic forwards.  He was lucky Fl had one of their bigs out. I'm astounded at this response from a guy who considers himself a good capper.  Koenig has hit big shot after big shot for this team. Great players are MULTI DIMENSIONAL.  NOT ONE DIMENSIONAL.  That's why Carmelo Anthony misses the playoffs every year.

I argued this point earlier.  In fact, I made 12 points.  I know you won't respond to them all because you can't and you don't have an intelligent reply to most of them - including why Hayes should have missed the second free throw in OT.  You got owned on that one.

Again, first half the lesser team has a higher probability of leading than they do the second half.  There are several reasons for this.  One, the intensity often picks up later for the better team when there is a greater sense of urgency.  And two, there's a feeling out period where you have to adjust to what the other team does.  The more time goes by, the more likely the better team rises to the top.  You want proof of this?  Go to betonline.  Look at the first half moneyline for an nba game.  Then look at the game moneyline.  Obv, the first half ml is better odds for favs because anything can happen in one half. Teams pick it up the second half.  Leading the entire second half is more important than leading the entire first half.  That's basic logic.  So if the times were technically even, when the importance is weighted they lost in that area decisively.  BTW  Purdue 34 - 26.  Purdue 34 -26.  Purdue 34- 26.  They lose by 30.  Purdue led for the first 10 min. 

Now wiscy led for 20 min basically.  Did you see the shooting percentages in the first half?  Wiscy shot 52 to Florida's 41 and still trailed because they were an inferior team.  Florida could not hit a shot.  They shot way below ev, Wiscy shot way above ev.  If things evened out shooting wise Florida leads that whole half like they did the second half.  My god.  Did you see some of the shots Hayes threw up?  He' a bad shooter.  I've seen him so many games man.  He made like 3-4 outside jumpers he normally barely draws iron on. Fl didn't have easy looks in the paint I'll admit, but they had open shots and missed a ton.  A better team than Wiscy is up by 10 at half.  In the second half, things evened out and Florida was pulled ahead because thery were better.  Also, their guard was the most talented player between the two teams and proved it.

Jagsfan, nice to see an objective post here.  Florida controlled that game and choked late.  That's really the moral of the story.  And you made an obvious point.  Even if you think it could be close, that doesn't mean you should bet Wisconsin.  You don't bet on a team counting on the other team to just choke.  Not with a 1.5 point spread.  That's not enough room for error.  That's less than a basket.  It closed at 1 btw.  You weren't getting 5 points you were getting 2.  If it was 5 or even 3.5 this is diff.  But you got the best spread out there at 2 and 2 gets you only a tie.  Not enough value there for a team you're counting on to just make plays inside of 2 min and not be able to build a lead.

Very important concept to understand.  Put a lower bound and upper bound estimate on these games.  If someone was gonna win in a blowout, it was gonna be Florida.  If the team you're betting against has the blowout potential and you don't, you should never back the other team only getting a point or two.  Mathematically, that's such a - EV play.  Scal, you aren't thinking through this logically at all.  Probability wise Fl was more likely to spend more time leading that 2nd half and they did.  They were the only team with blowout potential as well.  There was no way Wiscy was gonna ever win this game by 10 points I'm sorry.  Fl were giving less than a basket.  How can you mathematically back the other team?

Florida deserved to win this game.  They choked, but they deserved to win if you watched that game.  They knew Koenig was the main threat so they pressured him. That's why talent matters.  When you have more great guards, it keeps the defense honest because you can't key in on one guy.  When you have limited talent, playing defense is so much easier.  That's why teams like St. Mary's never do crap in the tourney.  They got no offensive talent and the defense can load up the paint knowing the guards can't beat you one on one.  You need to have at least 2 guys who can dribble shoot effectively and Wiscy had one.  Hayes and Happ live in the paint and can't shoot free throws.  Btw, Florida could penetrate the paint with their guard play in this game much better than Wiscy because of the athleticism diff.  That makes offense so much easier. That's something you didn't consider either.

I can say whatever I want.  You're not gonna offer any good rebuttals because you dont have any.  But your points in my opinion are extremely weak.  And as an FYI, I TOOK FL ML.  I did not lose.  The ML at my book was like -115.  And that doesn't matter anyway. 

Also, jags thank for mentioning Wiscy being the public play opposed to what Scal claims here.  In general, yes favs are backed more.  But that's not always the case.  Teams with recent tourney success or get really hot are popular with the public and often overvalued.  Example of that being Michigan who everyone loved.  They were favored by a point over Oregon when it should have been even or Oregon -1.

Too much concern over a game that was either lucky or unlucky either way.....

Fluffy, you arguing with me about capping is like a high school freshman who is getting tutored in physics arguing with Neil deGrasse Tyson.

Your argumentation is not only incoherent, it's flat out embarrassingly false.

Your opening debate point was the following:

 I'm a Wisconsin native and I know this team pretty well.

Wisconsin is a terrible play.  Can they win?  Sure, because Florida may get tight and choke.  But they don't have any talent.

This is not a good team.

Just these 6 sentences, where another poster justifiably called you out on, would allow me to give you the silent treatment, as ignoring such buffoonery would do you some good.

The most green poster here, the squarest square, would not agree that Wisconsin has no talent and is not a good team.

And if you didn't mean that (much like Trump is now saying his 'wiretapping' claim wasn't REALLY wiretapping because his tweet had the word 'wiretapping' in quotes) than don't type it. It's pretty simple. Don't type something you don't want submitted to the forum. But you not only typed it, you went on breathlessly spewing verbal diarreah all over this forum and submitted it.

Then you said this:

 They're just a team that's coached well with one great player in Koenig, one pretty good player in Happ, and a decent player in Hayes.

Now I addressed this gut-busting lunacy already, but then you doubled down on this in post #167 calling me an imbecile for thinking otherwise with this idiocy:

7. Koenig isn't Wiscy's best player?  Are you out of your mind?  You'd rather have Happ or Hayes taking the final shot of the game? I mean my god you're an imbecile.

Ok, but now you walked over a cliff with a blindfold because you are now TRIPLING down on your original statement by saying the following:

Scal, who is the best player on Wiscy's roster?  According to you.  When I said greatest player, I said on this roster.  Not all time.  I would hope you'd be smart enough to understand that.  Is Hayes the best player?  Because he has no jump shot.  He shoots 50% from the line to Koenig's 90%.  Happ?  Shoots 50% from the line and has no jumper.  I saw him vs NC earlier this year and couldn't get off a shot vs their big athletic forwards.  He was lucky Fl had one of their bigs out. I'm astounded at this response from a guy who considers himself a good capper.  Koenig has hit big shot after big shot for this team. Great players are MULTI DIMENSIONAL.  NOT ONE DIMENSIONAL.  That's why Carmelo Anthony misses the playoffs every year.

So there's a bit of walking back being done here by you by putting words in my mouth (when YOU made the original proclamation) that I thought you meant he was the greatest of all time.

I did no such thing. I just called you out. Calling Koenig the greatest or the best this year or any year is beyond asinine.

There isn't a SINGLE poster here who would agree with this. Would you like me to prove it? I want ONE person to come forward and agree that Koenig is Wisky's best playing on their current roster. If you do come forward, just offer a few quick blurbs as to why this is so we all can be enlightened like Fluffy.

Just one person step forward. ONE.

Fluffy, think about that. You have TRIPLED DOWN an indefensible statement and will likely quadruple down on it  but not a single person in this entire forum will agree with you with reasoning. And this is not an angle. This is a verifiable assessment. Not ONE person will support it. 

So obvious is this statement false, I won't even trouble people to read a counter from me as to why this is.

Now I'm trying to help you. I've been capping games SINCE THE 4th grade. I know what I am doing. You can say this record or that record I have makes you a bad capper but the proof is in the pudding: people read these threads because I offer something found nowhere else on the web or in the world for that matter, and I know how to cap from unique angles. End of story.

You seem to be very new at this and have a misguided overconfidence, emboldened by fellow neophytes like ProudJagsFan. That is a worst case scenario because it is caustic peer influence feeding into one another only to spiral out of control. 

In reality, you know very little about what you are talking about especially as a Wisconsin fan because to say what you have said as a FAN who actually watches the games has exposed you like the Emperor with new clothes.

Your off the cuff caps are akin to you walking into a major business meeting at Apple Headquarters wearing a Armani suit jacket, a $500 silk tie, a pair of Bruno Mali shoes....

....and instead of pants....a loin cloth.

Who the hell would take you seriously? Your bolded claims above results in you capping in a loin clothe. No one will listen to you beyond those claims. 

My advice to you is to make a list of finer points of an argument and present those, AFTER you have proven they are verified (something you failed woefully at here).

Otherwise you'll remain as a poster in a quagmire of consternation never to get your head out of your own derriere.

Take my advice or fade into the capper abyss. I'll always be here to wave goodbye if you choose the latter.

For all you've done, you deserve to feel GREAT.
Wisc +2 is a Win
(a running floater-3-pointer buzzer-beater is uncappable).

And the Wisky Seniors still go out as overall WINNERS.

Quote Originally Posted by ProudJagsfan:

Scal, i have a subscription to sportsinsights and wisconsin was easily the publc play.  favorites can be sharp too, like the Zags tonight. Florida was the play imo. They led soundly with 5 mins left until they took the foot off the gaspedal. They were the better and more athletic team and I don't think you can say otherwise. When Florida and Wiscy were both playing their games, Florida was winning. While Wiscy had more seniors, Florida guys had some experience too so it's too simplistic to call this experience vs talent.

this being said, I barely skimmed the thread, if people are bashing you they shouldn't be. You had good reasons for your bet and were cool enough to share them with us so thanks for that for the input on my thread and the awesome discussion otherwise.

Can we put this thread to rest, Please ! It was a great game, Wisky and SCal covered +2 . 

Lol i'm delusional?? Did you not notice the extremely transparent transformation in Florida's mentality? How they sat their best player after he drained another three and he wasn't even in foul trouble? How they just ran down the clock every time? Even the announcers talked about how he would come back in after "wiscy would go on a run." Florida stopped being aggressive. They played not to lose. When they were not playing to lose, they were up 12. now please share with me more insight, you told me how many minutes a game lasts, but how many seconds?

Your math is respectable. Your logic is not, because your first sentence just reformulates my point. You have to play to choke.