Quote Originally Posted by fluffybucker69:
Well, I gotta reflect on this one. I wrote what was clearly the best analysis of this game.
Scal, I have nothing against you. Just being honest. I told you it was a terrible bet, but it could get lucky. I was dead right. Someone commented on that being a stupid statement. I was clear in my analysis. The only team that was ever gonna have the ability to really control this game and be up 8-10 late in the second half was probably Florida. And I was right. And I also said Wisconsin seems to have an edge sometimes in close games to an extent. I thought Florida would lead most of this game, but might choke because that's what happens in this tourney. I was spot on.
The reason Wiscy was a bad bet was because they've shown this season they can't gain serious separation from teams - whereas Florida has. And the reason for that is Florida has more talent. Someone heckled me for that as well. Look, Wiscy is one of the bottom teams in offense. Their big guys all shoot 50% from the line and Koenig is really their own shot creator. Hayes can make some things happen, but he's just not reliable. Compare to that Kentucky or NC where everyone on the floor gets their own shot. That's what I mean by little talent. They're just a team that's coached well with one great player in Koenig, one pretty good player in Happ, and a decent player in Hayes. But Happ and Hayes can't shoot so basically they got true ONE COMPLETE player. Everything Hayes and Happ does is right at the basket . . . not really multi dimensional players like a Kaminsky.
Now anyway, I have nothing against Wiscy. I know I sounded like a Wiscy hater above and someone got on me for that. I'm just brutally honest and I often sound like a jerk. But that's how I reason through things. I feel bad for Wiscy the way they lost and they deserve a lot of credit because they maximized what they got and they showed a lot of mental toughness coming back over and over. However, Florida was the better team. Period. Not way better, but better. With that being said, they nearly choked. If you could make a bet on who would spend more time leading the second half Florida would be a no brainer. But there's incredible choking in this tourney. Ahem Arizona.
What makes the tourney so brutal is the amount of choking that goes on. It's so much worse than the NBA in this regard. You don't see many teams up 8 with 2 min left and lose. It should happen more, but it doesn't happen much. If you're up 10 with 3 min left with a 30 second shot clock, you can practically hold onto the ball for 30 seconds turn it over and still win. But what's tough is betting teams that lead most of the game and can't finish.
Scal, if someone said hey Florida is gonna be up 7-8 from basically the 15 min mark in the second half to the 5 min mark. Still like Wiscy? No. It was a bad bet in terms of you thought Wiscy was gonna be controlling this game. And I said in my analysis Wiscy has essentially not had game control this entire season and you were basically banking on them hoping to stay in the game (and by stay in the game I mean only trailing 2-3 points or tied) till the 2 min mark and just make a few more plays in a coinflip type spot. That's just losing money over time. You don't put $ on a team unless you think they can lead by a decent margin potentially much of the second half and that was never gonna happen. Florida has won pretty much all their games leading start to finish. That's why they're better and they're a more complete team.
I make bad bets all the time. Not trying to discredit other good plays you may have. I just don't think there was a single good reason was to take Wiscy tonight. The senior thing makes no difference other than experience. Experience matters, but it shouldn't offset a team that's overall better. There's a reason Wiscy was an 8 this year. Someone earlier said regular season doesn't matter. I mean come on that's ridiculous. Teams like Xavier and SC are the exceptions to the rule. Most years the 7-8 seeds all get knocked out by Elite Eight. Syracuse was the only low seed that made it last year. On avg, you got one team a year that does nothing in the season and gets really hot in the tourney.
I really thought coming in though the best strategy was bet all dogs. There has been evidence of little separation this year from the top 20 teams. Forget trying to handicap these games. Just take any dog. Vegas overdoes some of these lines. I already see SC getting 3.5? Why? This game is practically a flip. Kentucky getting 3. Why? Why aren't both those games -1 or 1.5? Gonzaga giving 8? WHY? That looks like 5.5 at most. They have nearly choked in 2 games and haven't covered one spread so far. Oregon getting 6 is fair only because it's more like a road game than neutral floor and it's hard to see them winning.
Anyway, great game to watch though. Sad as a Badger fan, but best game I've seen in a while. 2 running threes like that in the second game? Wow. BTW, Hayes should have missed the second free throw in OT. That would have run more time off the clock and made it way harder to get off any decent look. And FL obviously should have fouled at the end of regulation. 2 coaching errors that would have sealed the game in either spot.
Get out the stadium full of Stradavarius violins. I mean, I've complained after games for a PARAGRAPH, and this guy authors War and Peace 2.0 as to why his bet should have won.
And the reason for that is Florida has more talent. Someone heckled me for that as well. -
Who even CARES who has more talent when it comes to a cap? The line will correct that. If capping was only about betting on talent, you'd bet the Warriors, Cavs and Spurs in the NBA every night without fail until they played each other. How is talent relevant to capping when the entire premise to the cap, and millions of others is the situation beyond the talent? Talent is a very basic premise you can focus on in a cap or be compensated for to balance out your lack thereof.
They're just a team that's coached well with one great player in Koenig, one pretty good player in Happ, and a decent player in Hayes
Koenig is Wisky's 'greatest' player??? Come on. Do you watch even watch these games?
It was a bad bet in terms of you thought Wiscy was gonna be controlling this game
I've always said people read what they want to read, or more likely, don't read the OP at all. The poster here says I thought Wisky would be controlling this game. Here is what I actually said:
But this Wisky team has stayed the same for the better (and the bettor). AND we are DOGS against a Florida forced to win by 3 for us to lose and they will want to play this game like Wisky, super tight.
I took the 2 point because I thought that a mere bucket had value and possibly for maybe the third time in my LIFE of capping, I took the +2 and it gave me a win on a 3 pt buzzer beater.
good call scal thx
in final minute of regulation
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