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2015 Week 1 College Football selections

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Posted: #151
Quote Originally Posted by czar2k4ever:


Hey Wise I have a question about TCU which would be the better bet for that game, the points or the over?? Thanks in advance and I'm grateful!





if I were inclined to wager on this game, which I'm
not, I would bet the under at 57 1/2. I know you
asked me about this game before and I felt that
the value was not there on this play at  - 14 .
I still feel that way. If late line moves can create
some value , my opinion could change.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #152
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:



           2015 College Football Selection Record

          Record to Date         0 of 0 = 000 %
           Bankroll to Date   =  100% of Original Bankroll


            Week 1 Selections

   Baylor    - 20  - 110    8% of current bankroll at risk

   Miss.St.   -13  - 110    8% of current bankroll at risk


                2 Tm. 7 pt.Teaser

   Baylor      -  27

   Miss. St.   -  16






Best of Luck to All           
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #153


26 DAYS , 21 HOURS , 12 MINUTES , 19 SECONDS


Until S. Carolina / N. Carolina .

It's Almost Here , Boys      
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Posted: #154

Hey guys!

I'm a big fan of Ncaa Football and the only time i bet is when ncaa football begin. I wanna share my prediction with you and want you to tell me what you think about it!

Big money bet:

Duke at Tulane: Duke by 9 point I think this one is a pretty easy win. Yes the game is at Tulane. Yes Duke lost Boone At Qb position. But last year Duke Rocked Tulane by 34 points and i see the same thing for this year. Duke by 21 points

Baylor at SMU: Baylor by 34 points SMU have no defense and Baylor wanna test their big point offense. I think Baylor win this one by 50 points +++

Troy at Nc state: NC state by 25 points Troy finished 113th last year for points against. Jacoby Brissett will rip off that defense. Nc State by 32 points

Mississippi State at Southern miss: Miss State by 23 points Well, i expect Southern miss to score 0 points and Mississippi State to score 38. Miss St by 38 points

Average money bet: Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt: Western by 2 points I have alot of faith in Brandon Doughty. Thats why i take WK. Western Kentucky by 6

Purdue at Marshall: Purdue +7 Rakeem Cato is gone for marshall. I think marshall is a bit overrated right now and Purdue is underrated. Tough fight here. Purdue by 3 points

Michigan St At Western Mich: Mich st by 19 points Michigan St is loaded with talents at every position. Blowout. Simple. Mich st by 35 points.

Georgia Southern at West Virginia: Geo + 19 Yes, West Virg gonna rip Geo defense. I see them scoring 45 points. But i also see Geo triple option score 31 points on west virg defense. West Virginia by 10

UTEP at Arkansas: Arkansas by 33 points Tough one here. I'm wondering about UTEP defense. I think Arkansas defense will shutdown UTEP Offense. Arkansas by 41 points.

Small money bet:

Bowling Green at Tennessee: Tenn by 21 points Tennessee can win this one by 40 points or only by 14. I'm curious too see that team. Tenn by 24 points.

Penn State vs Temple: Penn by 7 points Game at temple. Good matchup. Christian Hackenberg have something to prove. Temple win in a close one. Penn by 10.

Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan: Old dom by 6 points Eastern Michigan is probably one of the worst team this year. Old Dominion doing progress. Old dom by 14 points.

Colorado at Hawaii: Hawaii +8 Colorado lost their Allstar QB. Hawaii only lost by 9 last year AT colorado. Hawaii by 3 points

So thats my card for week 1 FBS VS FBS I want feedback!

 

 
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Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by playmaker235:

Hey guys!

I'm a big fan of Ncaa Football and the only time i bet is when ncaa football begin. I wanna share my prediction with you and want you to tell me what you think about it!

Big money bet:

Duke at Tulane: Duke by 9 point I think this one is a pretty easy win. Yes the game is at Tulane. Yes Duke lost Boone At Qb position. But last year Duke Rocked Tulane by 34 points and i see the same thing for this year. Duke by 21 points

Baylor at SMU: Baylor by 34 points SMU have no defense and Baylor wanna test their big point offense. I think Baylor win this one by 50 points +++

Troy at Nc state: NC state by 25 points Troy finished 113th last year for points against. Jacoby Brissett will rip off that defense. Nc State by 32 points

Mississippi State at Southern miss: Miss State by 23 points Well, i expect Southern miss to score 0 points and Mississippi State to score 38. Miss St by 38 points

Average money bet: Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt: Western by 2 points I have alot of faith in Brandon Doughty. Thats why i take WK. Western Kentucky by 6

Purdue at Marshall: Purdue +7 Rakeem Cato is gone for marshall. I think marshall is a bit overrated right now and Purdue is underrated. Tough fight here. Purdue by 3 points

Michigan St At Western Mich: Mich st by 19 points Michigan St is loaded with talents at every position. Blowout. Simple. Mich st by 35 points.

Georgia Southern at West Virginia: Geo + 19 Yes, West Virg gonna rip Geo defense. I see them scoring 45 points. But i also see Geo triple option score 31 points on west virg defense. West Virginia by 10

UTEP at Arkansas: Arkansas by 33 points Tough one here. I'm wondering about UTEP defense. I think Arkansas defense will shutdown UTEP Offense. Arkansas by 41 points.

Small money bet:

Bowling Green at Tennessee: Tenn by 21 points Tennessee can win this one by 40 points or only by 14. I'm curious too see that team. Tenn by 24 points.

Penn State vs Temple: Penn by 7 points Game at temple. Good matchup. Christian Hackenberg have something to prove. Temple win in a close one. Penn by 10.

Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan: Old dom by 6 points Eastern Michigan is probably one of the worst team this year. Old Dominion doing progress. Old dom by 14 points.

Colorado at Hawaii: Hawaii +8 Colorado lost their Allstar QB. Hawaii only lost by 9 last year AT colorado. Hawaii by 3 points

So thats my card for week 1 FBS VS FBS I want feedback!

 






Welcome to Covers. If you are looking for feedback
on your picks . I recommend that you start a new
thread and introduce yourself to the forum . There
are some very capable cappers here who are more
than willing to offer their opinion.

Welcome and best of Luck to You 
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :


I agree.  Using the same metrics EVERY time is key.  It took me a while to realize that.  I envy your experience.  You have so much more data and simple experience at this, I'd kill for that data.  I've only been doing this since I got out of college and only successfully for a couple of years  (my learning curve was steep lol).   The thing that took me the longest was figuring out WHAT metrics to use.   But once I figured those out, things started looking differently.  

I appreciate you sharing what you have.  It's really good for me to kind of get into the mind of someone else who looks at this like a business.  Even tho we do things a little differently, I feel there is always knowledge I can pull from someone who has the experience you do  





Thanks Bud,  Forgive me for highlighting key
comments in your post, but I believe there are
some great messages in here for newcomers who
seriously desire to improve their skills at what we
do.
The knowledge and experience I've gained in doing
this comes primarily  from the following :

1. I made a commitment to learn Sportsbetting in
    1984 . That's 30 years ago and I'm still learning.

2. I've kept meticulous records of my methodology
   and my results each year. This has helped me to
   find the strategy I now use to handicap. I believe
   that success comes from being honest about
   your past results , and If you are serious about
   success, finding the right metrics over time that
   assure you of success.

3.Keeping up with the ever changing face of teams
   we wager on , and realistically establishing a
   value vs opponent on any before we bet it.

4. Using data to accurately establish a teams Off.'
    and Def. efficiency and probability vs their
    opponent, and applying the same metrics to all
    games capped.

5. Understanding the concept of Risk and value
    and applying to a capping strategy.

6. Once # 4 and # 5 is understood , being selective
    in wagering to increase returns.

7. True success comes to those who diligently
     strive to improve their results every time they
     make a wager and measure the results.

8.  Finally , seeking the advice and opinion of
     others is not a handicapping strategy  that will
     provide positive results over time.

To all those seeking to profit from sportsbetting :

     " Put in the time and energy , It's worth it. "
   
Best of Luck to All this Season       
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #157
 
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Posted: #158
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Quote Originally Posted by czar2k4ever:

Hey Wise I have a question about TCU which would be the better bet for that game, the points or the over?? Thanks in advance and I'm grateful!
if I were inclined to wager on this game, which I'mnot, I would bet the under at 57 1/2. I know you asked me about this game before and I felt thatthe value was not there on this play at  - 14 .I still feel that way. If late line moves can createsome value , my opinion could change.

Thanks Dude just dotting my I's and crossing my t's... Lol
 
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Posted: #159
Wiseguy - 

Your post above #156 is one of the best I've ever read on this forum and every person here should read it multiple times. 

Second, regarding your knowledge gained over the years on the subjects of risk and value, could you share the data points/factors and concepts alluded to in points 4 and 5 of your post that you look at most in determining your assessment?  At this stage of your 'career' I am assuming you don't mind shortening the learning curve for the rest of us :) ... and I'm not forgetting your admonishment in point #8 above, just asking because you have earned my respect from your postings (I wouldn't be asking otherwise) :)

Thanks and good luck this year.

GW
 
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Posted: #160
Quote Originally Posted by dontbookme:







Best of Luck this season , Bud    
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Posted: #161
Quote Originally Posted by czar2k4ever:

if I were inclined to wager on this game, which I'mnot, I would bet the under at 57 1/2. I know you asked me about this game before and I felt thatthe value was not there on this play at  - 14 .I still feel that way. If late line moves can createsome value , my opinion could change.
Thanks Dude just dotting my I's and crossing my t's... Lol




I still like that under at 57 1/2     
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Posted: #162
Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:

Wiseguy - 

Your post above #156 is one of the best I've ever read on this forum and every person here should read it multiple times. 

Second, regarding your knowledge gained over the years on the subjects of risk and value, could you share the data points/factors and concepts alluded to in points 4 and 5 of your post that you look at most in determining your assessment?  At this stage of your 'career' I am assuming you don't mind shortening the learning curve for the rest of us :) ... and I'm not forgetting your admonishment in point #8 above, just asking because you have earned my respect from your postings (I wouldn't be asking otherwise) :)

Thanks and good luck this year.

GW





Thanks for the kind words. The metrics that I use
vary as I use a scheme based system to cap games
The probability comes from the ability to measure
the accuracy of your capping strategy vs the actual
game results and maintaining a data base to track
the consistency over time.
Cappers tend to use a number of different " stock "
metrics to establish their assessment of the power
rating of one team vs another and that's fine if they
apply the metrics consistently to each matchup.
I like to be a little more specific, so I will use many
different metrics depending what the offensive /
defensive schemes both teams use.
The most important thing is to know what the stats
are likely to tell you, and how effective they are in
producing consistent results.


 .
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Posted: #163

Regarding my post # 161 :

Two early totals I like are

S. Carolina / N. Carolina under 65

TCU / Minnesota under 57 1/2


Best of Luck to All       
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Posted: #164



8 DAYS to GO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Best of Luck to all CFB Cappers

This Season       
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Posted: #165


6 DAYS 21 HOURS , 42 MINUTES to GO !!!!!!!
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Posted: #166
ADDED :


Illinois  - 13 1/2     - 110




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Posted: #167
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:



           2015 College Football Selection Record

          Record to Date         0 of 0 = 000 %
           Bankroll to Date   =  100% of Original Bankroll


            Week 1 Selections

   Baylor    - 20      - 110  8% of current bankroll at risk

   Miss.St.   -13      - 110  8% of current bankroll at risk

   Illinois   - 13 1/2   - 110  2% of current bankroll at risk


                2 Tm. 7 pt.Teaser

   Baylor      -  27

   Miss. St.   -  16


   Best of Luck to All        





updated Card  
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

ADDED :


Illinois  - 13 1/2     - 110





I really like this play.  I was hoping the news of Beckman's firing would drop this puppy.  I'm already hearing how players are rallying around the new guy.  I was hoping to get this line below 14 and this might just do it. 

Wise  
 
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Posted: #169
Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :


I really like this play.  I was hoping the news of Beckman's firing would drop this puppy.  I'm already hearing how players are rallying around the new guy.  I was hoping to get this line below 14 and this might just do it. 

Wise  





Hey Bud , I saw an opportunity that was there for
a moment that looks like good value to me. I think
they'll play hard for Cubit. I think - 14 is the about
the best we'll see.

Wheaty  
 
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Posted: #170
Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :


I really like this play.  I was hoping the news of Beckman's firing would drop this puppy.  I'm already hearing how players are rallying around the new guy.  I was hoping to get this line below 14 and this might just do it. 

Wise  








Wheaty , I added a little more at   - 13 1/2    ( - 120 )


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Posted: #171
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:



           2015 College Football Selection Record

          Record to Date         0 of 0 = 000 %
           Bankroll to Date   =  100% of Original Bankroll


            Week 1 Selections

   Baylor  - 20     - 110   8% of current bankroll at risk

   Miss.St. -13     - 110   8% of current bankroll at risk

   Illinois - 13 1/2  - 110   2%  of current bankroll at risk

   Illinois - 13 1/2  - 120  2%  of current bankroll at risk


                2 Tm. 7 pt.Teaser

   Baylor      -  27

   Miss. St.   -  16


   Best of Luck to All        





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Posted: #172
I think -14 is probably the best we'll see too.  I'm probably gonna get on this now before it goes up anymore.  

I actually like this play more now.  I live close enough to U of I that I hear a lot about them.  And all that's being reported is the players are behind him 100%.  A lot of them are happy about this.  Obviously, this is the usual pc reaction.  But I think it's the truth.  

 
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Posted: #173
Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :

I think -14 is probably the best we'll see too.  I'm probably gonna get on this now before it goes up anymore.  

I actually like this play more now.  I live close enough to U of I that I hear a lot about them.  And all that's being reported is the players are behind him 100%.  A lot of them are happy about this.  Obviously, this is the usual pc reaction.  But I think it's the truth.  





I'm a old Illinois boy , Wheaton in Du Page County.
Spent some time in Rantoul , overseeing a few
construction projects. Cubit did a lot with little
talent at Western Michigan. He's an offensive guy ,
that's been an area of weakness for the Illini.
I added a little more at - 120 just in case all of the
books move it to 14 1/2.

Wheaty 





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Posted: #174

4 DAYS , 9 HOURS , 23 MINUTES to GO !!!!!!!!!!



   
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Posted: #175
I just want to say thank you for all the hard work you put into this wiseguy. 

It is gonna be a great year. 

You make 8% of your bankroll bets?

woooow, you got some big balls there buddy

You do a great job educating the teeming masses on sharp college football betting. I like that you keep your bets down to a bare minimum of the few with the greatest value.

Let the good times roll. By the way our backgrounds are very similar. I too am an Illinois resident that made his living managing construction jobs. 

Lets get them greedy stinkin books. 
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