Looks good. Opening BOL numbers it appears?? They had several questionable numbers IMO.
Good luck with your plays.
TD
TD, Thanks Bud. These two were not even on my radar initially. They became a play due to where Bol opened them at. I see that 5 Dimes numbers are adjusting accordingly. I did not find much I liked when they hung their line on 7 / 1 and I would have passed except for these two. Baylor looks nicely valued here. Since they are on the road, I would not like to pay much more. Miss St. is a little more risky as they have lost quite a few starters and can underwhelm defensively at times. Big concern with Manny Diaz back at MSU as their D Coord. as his defenses tend to allow a few more points than I would like to see. Overall, I did not see too much worthy of a any significant wager based on openers. I'll let the bettors move the lines around a bit to try to get value on the other side.
TD
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Wiseguy,
Looks good. Opening BOL numbers it appears?? They had several questionable numbers IMO.
Good luck with your plays.
TD
TD, Thanks Bud. These two were not even on my radar initially. They became a play due to where Bol opened them at. I see that 5 Dimes numbers are adjusting accordingly. I did not find much I liked when they hung their line on 7 / 1 and I would have passed except for these two. Baylor looks nicely valued here. Since they are on the road, I would not like to pay much more. Miss St. is a little more risky as they have lost quite a few starters and can underwhelm defensively at times. Big concern with Manny Diaz back at MSU as their D Coord. as his defenses tend to allow a few more points than I would like to see. Overall, I did not see too much worthy of a any significant wager based on openers. I'll let the bettors move the lines around a bit to try to get value on the other side.
Is that Baylor spread for the full game. If so its hard to believe it would be that low. Steele has the game capped at Baylor -34. The latest I saw on 5 dimes was Baylor -30. The intangibles here lean heavily in a baylor cover. no look ahead, baylor DC bennett was fired by SMU prior to Jones. plus the recruiting aspect for Baylor recruiting DFW to demonstrate to recruits that though morris has upside, it will take him a few years to get the players to fit his system. If you got Baylor -20, that is as absolute steal. The full game on Se 4 will be Baylor -34...please confirm...what book would be dumb enough to post a baylor -20 line this early. Baylor's QB will be as good as if not better than Petty, granted it is the 1st game, but Baylor is plug and play...and there D is better this season. tell me where you got -20 and what is the line right now at that book?
LonghornHoosier
0
Wise
Is that Baylor spread for the full game. If so its hard to believe it would be that low. Steele has the game capped at Baylor -34. The latest I saw on 5 dimes was Baylor -30. The intangibles here lean heavily in a baylor cover. no look ahead, baylor DC bennett was fired by SMU prior to Jones. plus the recruiting aspect for Baylor recruiting DFW to demonstrate to recruits that though morris has upside, it will take him a few years to get the players to fit his system. If you got Baylor -20, that is as absolute steal. The full game on Se 4 will be Baylor -34...please confirm...what book would be dumb enough to post a baylor -20 line this early. Baylor's QB will be as good as if not better than Petty, granted it is the 1st game, but Baylor is plug and play...and there D is better this season. tell me where you got -20 and what is the line right now at that book?
Is that Baylor spread for the full game. If so its hard to believe it would be that low. Steele has the game capped at Baylor -34. The latest I saw on 5 dimes was Baylor -30. The intangibles here lean heavily in a baylor cover. no look ahead, baylor DC bennett was fired by SMU prior to Jones. plus the recruiting aspect for Baylor recruiting DFW to demonstrate to recruits that though morris has upside, it will take him a few years to get the players to fit his system. If you got Baylor -20, that is as absolute steal. The full game on Se 4 will be Baylor -34...please confirm...what book would be dumb enough to post a baylor -20 line this early. Baylor's QB will be as good as if not better than Petty, granted it is the 1st game, but Baylor is plug and play...and there D is better this season. tell me where you got -20 and what is the line right now at that book?
LH, Betonline opened it at Baylor - 20 , as I was in handicap mode, I noticed nothing unusual as they began to post their numbers. When Baylor's line came up, my first inclination was to check to see if Seth Russell was OK , then I got some bets in . I'm not sure the Books realize that Russell has a lot better numbers and potential than Petty. LH , the line is now - 27 as bettors have pounded it pretty good. Miss St opened at - 13 and is now at -17 The really wild one I was watching is Vandy which opened at - 17' and bettors kept pounding it down to it's current - 3' . BOL hung the opener on 7/1 late but only posted Thursday and Friday numbers. Earl;y on 7/2 they posted Saturdays games. The two games on my radar didn't fit my MOV when they opened so I had to pass on " No Value". I still might have a shot at those as well yet as those lines are moving in my favor. I was thankful they opened these at the number that they did as I didn't think Baylor and Miss St. would be a betting opportunity in Week 1.
LH
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
Wise
Is that Baylor spread for the full game. If so its hard to believe it would be that low. Steele has the game capped at Baylor -34. The latest I saw on 5 dimes was Baylor -30. The intangibles here lean heavily in a baylor cover. no look ahead, baylor DC bennett was fired by SMU prior to Jones. plus the recruiting aspect for Baylor recruiting DFW to demonstrate to recruits that though morris has upside, it will take him a few years to get the players to fit his system. If you got Baylor -20, that is as absolute steal. The full game on Se 4 will be Baylor -34...please confirm...what book would be dumb enough to post a baylor -20 line this early. Baylor's QB will be as good as if not better than Petty, granted it is the 1st game, but Baylor is plug and play...and there D is better this season. tell me where you got -20 and what is the line right now at that book?
LH, Betonline opened it at Baylor - 20 , as I was in handicap mode, I noticed nothing unusual as they began to post their numbers. When Baylor's line came up, my first inclination was to check to see if Seth Russell was OK , then I got some bets in . I'm not sure the Books realize that Russell has a lot better numbers and potential than Petty. LH , the line is now - 27 as bettors have pounded it pretty good. Miss St opened at - 13 and is now at -17 The really wild one I was watching is Vandy which opened at - 17' and bettors kept pounding it down to it's current - 3' . BOL hung the opener on 7/1 late but only posted Thursday and Friday numbers. Earl;y on 7/2 they posted Saturdays games. The two games on my radar didn't fit my MOV when they opened so I had to pass on " No Value". I still might have a shot at those as well yet as those lines are moving in my favor. I was thankful they opened these at the number that they did as I didn't think Baylor and Miss St. would be a betting opportunity in Week 1.
Wow! If I could get Baylor at -20 I would have more than 8% of my bankroll on it. While I always suggest proper money management, this number is about as close to a sure thing as you can get. Just checked 5Dimes and they have it at -30
0
Wow! If I could get Baylor at -20 I would have more than 8% of my bankroll on it. While I always suggest proper money management, this number is about as close to a sure thing as you can get. Just checked 5Dimes and they have it at -30
Wow! If I could get Baylor at -20 I would have more than 8% of my bankroll on it. While I always suggest proper money management, this number is about as close to a sure thing as you can get. Just checked 5Dimes and they have it at -30
It's a long season, there will be other opportunities
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by RicoCortez:
Wow! If I could get Baylor at -20 I would have more than 8% of my bankroll on it. While I always suggest proper money management, this number is about as close to a sure thing as you can get. Just checked 5Dimes and they have it at -30
It's a long season, there will be other opportunities
you are johnny on the sport my friend! congrats. baylor will have the -20 covered in the first half, if not the first quarter. baylor is legit this season...
i don't have a BOL account. What is the current line for Tenn and NC State. I think Tenn soud be around -22 and NC State around -28...can you confirm?
Thx
LonghornHoosier
0
wise
you are johnny on the sport my friend! congrats. baylor will have the -20 covered in the first half, if not the first quarter. baylor is legit this season...
i don't have a BOL account. What is the current line for Tenn and NC State. I think Tenn soud be around -22 and NC State around -28...can you confirm?
you are johnny on the sport my friend! congrats. baylor will have the -20 covered in the first half, if not the first quarter. baylor is legit this season...
i don't have a BOL account. What is the current line for Tenn and NC State. I think Tenn soud be around -22 and NC State around -28...can you confirm?
Thx
LonghornHoosier
0
wise
you are johnny on the sport my friend! congrats. baylor will have the -20 covered in the first half, if not the first quarter. baylor is legit this season...
i don't have a BOL account. What is the current line for Tenn and NC State. I think Tenn soud be around -22 and NC State around -28...can you confirm?
you are johnny on the sport my friend! congrats. baylor will have the -20 covered in the first half, if not the first quarter. baylor is legit this season...
i don't have a BOL account. What is the current line for Tenn and NC State. I think Tenn soud be around -22 and NC State around -28...can you confirm?
Thx
Betonline opened Tenn at - 17. It is now - 20 . 5 Dimes opened Tenn at - 24' . It is now - 22 .
NCST opened at - 23
In my opinion , both are overvalued at these prices.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
wise
you are johnny on the sport my friend! congrats. baylor will have the -20 covered in the first half, if not the first quarter. baylor is legit this season...
i don't have a BOL account. What is the current line for Tenn and NC State. I think Tenn soud be around -22 and NC State around -28...can you confirm?
Thx
Betonline opened Tenn at - 17. It is now - 20 . 5 Dimes opened Tenn at - 24' . It is now - 22 .
NCST opened at - 23
In my opinion , both are overvalued at these prices.
you are johnny on the sport my friend! congrats. baylor will have the -20 covered in the first half, if not the first quarter. baylor is legit this season...
i don't have a BOL account. What is the current line for Tenn and NC State. I think Tenn soud be around -22 and NC State around -28...can you confirm?
Thx
LH , Overall I think BOL did a good job on their opening lines . Sometimes It's difficult to gauge public perception and how it effects line movement There were less than a half dozen that had any significant line movement after they opened. That's not bad.
LH
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
wise
you are johnny on the sport my friend! congrats. baylor will have the -20 covered in the first half, if not the first quarter. baylor is legit this season...
i don't have a BOL account. What is the current line for Tenn and NC State. I think Tenn soud be around -22 and NC State around -28...can you confirm?
Thx
LH , Overall I think BOL did a good job on their opening lines . Sometimes It's difficult to gauge public perception and how it effects line movement There were less than a half dozen that had any significant line movement after they opened. That's not bad.
wise - I am going to take a closer look at Miss St. with only 7 returning starters, it is a bit risky. But, with Prescott behind center, after a 49 to 0 thrashing last year (that i assume could have been worse, i think a spread up to say -24 could be very viable. I need to do more research on this one.
I know you are very selective in the first few weeks. how may additional picks do you think you will have for week 1. I like Baylor up to 30 for many reasons. I have you a few earlier. Don't underestiate the Bennett angle, the improved Baylor D, the overall improved talent via recruiting, and though Morris will have SMU in a bowl soon enough, game one will be tough against a motivated top 5 team. in addition, Ford at SMU holds 30. At least 50% to 70% of the seats will be filled with Baylor supporters. I live in the DFW region, so I may go to the game. I just hope that I can get it around 30 or better. Briles record ATS is excptional. He is a real person when it comes to that. plus, DFW is a big recruiting ground for Baylor. He will send a message that at least for the near term, SMU should not be considered over Baylor. If somem how SMU scores say 14, Briles will keep scoring. this is a very solid play, in my opinion, for the reasons stated...
LonghornHoosier
0
wise - I am going to take a closer look at Miss St. with only 7 returning starters, it is a bit risky. But, with Prescott behind center, after a 49 to 0 thrashing last year (that i assume could have been worse, i think a spread up to say -24 could be very viable. I need to do more research on this one.
I know you are very selective in the first few weeks. how may additional picks do you think you will have for week 1. I like Baylor up to 30 for many reasons. I have you a few earlier. Don't underestiate the Bennett angle, the improved Baylor D, the overall improved talent via recruiting, and though Morris will have SMU in a bowl soon enough, game one will be tough against a motivated top 5 team. in addition, Ford at SMU holds 30. At least 50% to 70% of the seats will be filled with Baylor supporters. I live in the DFW region, so I may go to the game. I just hope that I can get it around 30 or better. Briles record ATS is excptional. He is a real person when it comes to that. plus, DFW is a big recruiting ground for Baylor. He will send a message that at least for the near term, SMU should not be considered over Baylor. If somem how SMU scores say 14, Briles will keep scoring. this is a very solid play, in my opinion, for the reasons stated...
LH, The line on Baylor is - 27. I believe there is still value at this price, but as the price goes up the probability of success diminishes. I may have two other plays if books and bettors are kind enough to move them to within my MOV guidelines.
LH, Best of success this season , Bud
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
LH, The line on Baylor is - 27. I believe there is still value at this price, but as the price goes up the probability of success diminishes. I may have two other plays if books and bettors are kind enough to move them to within my MOV guidelines.
Thanks Bud. In the immortal words of Clint Eastwood " A mans got to know his limitations " I've come to the conclusion that I stink at capping MLB. I'll just stick to College Football from now on.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by BettyMcWager:
Good luck, WISE
Thanks Bud. In the immortal words of Clint Eastwood " A mans got to know his limitations " I've come to the conclusion that I stink at capping MLB. I'll just stick to College Football from now on.
Thanks Bud. In the immortal words of Clint Eastwood " A mans got to know his limitations " I've come to the conclusion that I stink at capping MLB. I'll just stick to College Football from now on.
Funny you say that, this past week or so I've been on the worst downswing I think I've ever had, and I'm about 2 losses away from just waiting for NFL to return
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
Thanks Bud. In the immortal words of Clint Eastwood " A mans got to know his limitations " I've come to the conclusion that I stink at capping MLB. I'll just stick to College Football from now on.
Funny you say that, this past week or so I've been on the worst downswing I think I've ever had, and I'm about 2 losses away from just waiting for NFL to return
what are your thoughts on Mich St at W Mich in week 1. Mich St. has a look ahead with a revenge game of Oregon on deck. game at W Michigan at night (Friday Sep 4).
I see a methodical game plan by Mich St. I see a lot of hype on W Mich, thus I see value for the favorite. Mich St is currently listed at -21.5. if you compare that to Steele it is high. Flick has turned things around in Kalamazoo. But, the talent delta is significant. from a motivation perspective, especially with Narduzi off to Pitt, I see a high level D rehearsal for Mich St (have a suspect DB, but I think they will use a nickel and dare W Mich to pass). I think Cook and that Mich St OK will create monster holes and chew up the clock. And even though Mich St WR corps young and relatively inexperienced, I think with a top 10 pick and top 3 NFL prospect Cook, they should be able to keep W Mich on its heals. Finally, like the Miss St v S Miss and Baylor v SMU angles, I see a recruiting turf statement made by Dantonio that even though Mich will be back under Harbaugh, Mich St now owns Mich and that includes recruiting. thus, I see signicant value in "week 1" on the road for a potential playoff team in Mich St against an upstart "tri-directional" W Mich Team...
prediction
Michigan State 45
W. Michigan 10
I promise this will be the last one. I know we are 2 months away, but I am serious. Weeks 1-4 are integral for me (and with the uncertainty, and lack of data points, present a challenge).
With regard to the Miss St v. S Miss matchup, here is a 12 minute streaming recording of a couple of Miss St relative insiders. granted, they sound like homers, but they bring up some good points. you know that star WR Wilson got busted in Alabama for MJ possession in March. But, these guys seem to think that Miss St has enough depth and motivation to soundly defeat S Miss. Granted, LSU is a look ahead, and Miss St won the game last year at LSU, but I think like the Mich St v. W Mich, it will motivate an inexperienced D to again shut out S Miss, while Prescott does his thing against a bad S Miss D that returns only 5 staters....Thus, like Mich St, I think the D for Miss St will be shutdown and, and Miss St led by Prescott will methodically chew up there S Miss little brother in a solid 30+ point win....here is the link.
what are your thoughts on Mich St at W Mich in week 1. Mich St. has a look ahead with a revenge game of Oregon on deck. game at W Michigan at night (Friday Sep 4).
I see a methodical game plan by Mich St. I see a lot of hype on W Mich, thus I see value for the favorite. Mich St is currently listed at -21.5. if you compare that to Steele it is high. Flick has turned things around in Kalamazoo. But, the talent delta is significant. from a motivation perspective, especially with Narduzi off to Pitt, I see a high level D rehearsal for Mich St (have a suspect DB, but I think they will use a nickel and dare W Mich to pass). I think Cook and that Mich St OK will create monster holes and chew up the clock. And even though Mich St WR corps young and relatively inexperienced, I think with a top 10 pick and top 3 NFL prospect Cook, they should be able to keep W Mich on its heals. Finally, like the Miss St v S Miss and Baylor v SMU angles, I see a recruiting turf statement made by Dantonio that even though Mich will be back under Harbaugh, Mich St now owns Mich and that includes recruiting. thus, I see signicant value in "week 1" on the road for a potential playoff team in Mich St against an upstart "tri-directional" W Mich Team...
prediction
Michigan State 45
W. Michigan 10
I promise this will be the last one. I know we are 2 months away, but I am serious. Weeks 1-4 are integral for me (and with the uncertainty, and lack of data points, present a challenge).
With regard to the Miss St v. S Miss matchup, here is a 12 minute streaming recording of a couple of Miss St relative insiders. granted, they sound like homers, but they bring up some good points. you know that star WR Wilson got busted in Alabama for MJ possession in March. But, these guys seem to think that Miss St has enough depth and motivation to soundly defeat S Miss. Granted, LSU is a look ahead, and Miss St won the game last year at LSU, but I think like the Mich St v. W Mich, it will motivate an inexperienced D to again shut out S Miss, while Prescott does his thing against a bad S Miss D that returns only 5 staters....Thus, like Mich St, I think the D for Miss St will be shutdown and, and Miss St led by Prescott will methodically chew up there S Miss little brother in a solid 30+ point win....here is the link.
what are your thoughts on Mich St at W Mich in week 1. Mich St. has a look ahead with a revenge game of Oregon on deck. game at W Michigan at night (Friday Sep 4).
I see a methodical game plan by Mich St. I see a lot of hype on W Mich, thus I see value for the favorite. Mich St is currently listed at -21.5. if you compare that to Steele it is high. Flick has turned things around in Kalamazoo. But, the talent delta is significant. from a motivation perspective, especially with Narduzi off to Pitt, I see a high level D rehearsal for Mich St (have a suspect DB, but I think they will use a nickel and dare W Mich to pass). I think Cook and that Mich St OK will create monster holes and chew up the clock. And even though Mich St WR corps young and relatively inexperienced, I think with a top 10 pick and top 3 NFL prospect Cook, they should be able to keep W Mich on its heals. Finally, like the Miss St v S Miss and Baylor v SMU angles, I see a recruiting turf statement made by Dantonio that even though Mich will be back under Harbaugh, Mich St now owns Mich and that includes recruiting. thus, I see signicant value in "week 1" on the road for a potential playoff team in Mich St against an upstart "tri-directional" W Mich Team...
prediction
Michigan State 45
W. Michigan 10
I promise this will be the last one. I know we are 2 months away, but I am serious. Weeks 1-4 are integral for me (and with the uncertainty, and lack of data points, present a challenge).
With regard to the Miss St v. S Miss matchup, here is a 12 minute streaming recording of a couple of Miss St relative insiders. granted, they sound like homers, but they bring up some good points. you know that star WR Wilson got busted in Alabama for MJ possession in March. But, these guys seem to think that Miss St has enough depth and motivation to soundly defeat S Miss. Granted, LSU is a look ahead, and Miss St won the game last year at LSU, but I think like the Mich St v. W Mich, it will motivate an inexperienced D to again shut out S Miss, while Prescott does his thing against a bad S Miss D that returns only 5 staters....Thus, like Mich St, I think the D for Miss St will be shutdown and, and Miss St led by Prescott will methodically chew up there S Miss little brother in a solid 30+ point win....here is the link.
I would personally pass on MSU due to the fact that they have Oregon up next. They'll get more cred if they beat the snot out of the Ducks, and may not take WMU seriously. If I'm laying 24 on the road in my opener, I want a little more of an edge. To be honest though, I did not run the program for this matchup, mainly due to the lookahead. In the MissSt. game, my edge is that MSU will run the ball on So. Miss. who gives up 5.4 ypc.
LH
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
Wise
what are your thoughts on Mich St at W Mich in week 1. Mich St. has a look ahead with a revenge game of Oregon on deck. game at W Michigan at night (Friday Sep 4).
I see a methodical game plan by Mich St. I see a lot of hype on W Mich, thus I see value for the favorite. Mich St is currently listed at -21.5. if you compare that to Steele it is high. Flick has turned things around in Kalamazoo. But, the talent delta is significant. from a motivation perspective, especially with Narduzi off to Pitt, I see a high level D rehearsal for Mich St (have a suspect DB, but I think they will use a nickel and dare W Mich to pass). I think Cook and that Mich St OK will create monster holes and chew up the clock. And even though Mich St WR corps young and relatively inexperienced, I think with a top 10 pick and top 3 NFL prospect Cook, they should be able to keep W Mich on its heals. Finally, like the Miss St v S Miss and Baylor v SMU angles, I see a recruiting turf statement made by Dantonio that even though Mich will be back under Harbaugh, Mich St now owns Mich and that includes recruiting. thus, I see signicant value in "week 1" on the road for a potential playoff team in Mich St against an upstart "tri-directional" W Mich Team...
prediction
Michigan State 45
W. Michigan 10
I promise this will be the last one. I know we are 2 months away, but I am serious. Weeks 1-4 are integral for me (and with the uncertainty, and lack of data points, present a challenge).
With regard to the Miss St v. S Miss matchup, here is a 12 minute streaming recording of a couple of Miss St relative insiders. granted, they sound like homers, but they bring up some good points. you know that star WR Wilson got busted in Alabama for MJ possession in March. But, these guys seem to think that Miss St has enough depth and motivation to soundly defeat S Miss. Granted, LSU is a look ahead, and Miss St won the game last year at LSU, but I think like the Mich St v. W Mich, it will motivate an inexperienced D to again shut out S Miss, while Prescott does his thing against a bad S Miss D that returns only 5 staters....Thus, like Mich St, I think the D for Miss St will be shutdown and, and Miss St led by Prescott will methodically chew up there S Miss little brother in a solid 30+ point win....here is the link.
I would personally pass on MSU due to the fact that they have Oregon up next. They'll get more cred if they beat the snot out of the Ducks, and may not take WMU seriously. If I'm laying 24 on the road in my opener, I want a little more of an edge. To be honest though, I did not run the program for this matchup, mainly due to the lookahead. In the MissSt. game, my edge is that MSU will run the ball on So. Miss. who gives up 5.4 ypc.
Wise - so if for Mich St, Oregon is a revenge look ahead revenge spot, why wouldn't you consider the look ahead aspects for this Miss St S Miss matchup. Granted, Miss St beat LSU at BR last year (with LSU QB troubles), but only won by 4 or 5. After Ole Miss and Bama, this is one of the biggest games of the year for Miss St (LSU). both games away, with the caveat that W Mich has a much better offense and S Miss is weaker now. But, relatively speaking, if with all its losses on D, Miss St knows it will have to play much better to win or be competitive against LSU on Sep 12, wouldn't the same model apply to Mich St? W Mich is getting a lot of positive press coming out of Mich. I doubt there 30K stadium will be that imposing on Mich St. In addition, Mich St. is 17-8 ATS as a road favorite under Dantonio...something to consider. I recall advice from last year. focus on value, and don't try to rationalize a pick that may have no value. I understand that. I just think Mich St D will be playing shut down D in week 1 (as a real life scrimmage prior to Oregon, and Cook will lead the O on not flashy but methodical drives. They won't incorporate all of their O game plan that they will have for Oregon, but, I have to beliee that Dantonio is a good enough coach (unlike Mack Brown against Ark St at home a few years ago) to realize that they won't be able to just turn on the switch in week 2 against Oregon after a lax effort in week 1. If this were a mid season game against a better than average tri directional mich quasi FCS school, I would be leary. Had Mich St just come off a tough game with Penn St or Ohio St or Michigan, then I could see a let down. I just don't see that on the road in week 1. The Mich St W Mich spread is -21.5 on 5D. I like Mich st at -21 or better.
So in summary, tell me why with all their losses on D, why you don't think there will be a look ahead for Miss St, but you think there will be for Mich St?
LonghornHoosier
0
Wise - so if for Mich St, Oregon is a revenge look ahead revenge spot, why wouldn't you consider the look ahead aspects for this Miss St S Miss matchup. Granted, Miss St beat LSU at BR last year (with LSU QB troubles), but only won by 4 or 5. After Ole Miss and Bama, this is one of the biggest games of the year for Miss St (LSU). both games away, with the caveat that W Mich has a much better offense and S Miss is weaker now. But, relatively speaking, if with all its losses on D, Miss St knows it will have to play much better to win or be competitive against LSU on Sep 12, wouldn't the same model apply to Mich St? W Mich is getting a lot of positive press coming out of Mich. I doubt there 30K stadium will be that imposing on Mich St. In addition, Mich St. is 17-8 ATS as a road favorite under Dantonio...something to consider. I recall advice from last year. focus on value, and don't try to rationalize a pick that may have no value. I understand that. I just think Mich St D will be playing shut down D in week 1 (as a real life scrimmage prior to Oregon, and Cook will lead the O on not flashy but methodical drives. They won't incorporate all of their O game plan that they will have for Oregon, but, I have to beliee that Dantonio is a good enough coach (unlike Mack Brown against Ark St at home a few years ago) to realize that they won't be able to just turn on the switch in week 2 against Oregon after a lax effort in week 1. If this were a mid season game against a better than average tri directional mich quasi FCS school, I would be leary. Had Mich St just come off a tough game with Penn St or Ohio St or Michigan, then I could see a let down. I just don't see that on the road in week 1. The Mich St W Mich spread is -21.5 on 5D. I like Mich st at -21 or better.
So in summary, tell me why with all their losses on D, why you don't think there will be a look ahead for Miss St, but you think there will be for Mich St?
wise - I am going to take a closer look at Miss St. with only 7 returning starters, it is a bit risky. But, with Prescott behind center, after a 49 to 0 thrashing last year (that i assume could have been worse, i think a spread up to say -24 could be very viable. I need to do more research on this one.
I know you are very selective in the first few weeks. how may additional picks do you think you will have for week 1. I like Baylor up to 30 for many reasons. I have you a few earlier. Don't underestiate the Bennett angle, the improved Baylor D, the overall improved talent via recruiting, and though Morris will have SMU in a bowl soon enough, game one will be tough against a motivated top 5 team. in addition, Ford at SMU holds 30. At least 50% to 70% of the seats will be filled with Baylor supporters. I live in the DFW region, so I may go to the game. I just hope that I can get it around 30 or better. Briles record ATS is excptional. He is a real person when it comes to that. plus, DFW is a big recruiting ground for Baylor. He will send a message that at least for the near term, SMU should not be considered over Baylor. If somem how SMU scores say 14, Briles will keep scoring. this is a very solid play, in my opinion, for the reasons stated...
LH, If you recall that chart I sent you, it pays to be selective.
At + 15 MOV I am successful 82 % of the time
At < 7 MOV I am successful 54 % of the time.
It pays to wait for legitimate value and risk slightly more per wager. The key word is legitimate value that comes from establishing a format and keeping a record of your results of all games you cap.
LH,
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
wise - I am going to take a closer look at Miss St. with only 7 returning starters, it is a bit risky. But, with Prescott behind center, after a 49 to 0 thrashing last year (that i assume could have been worse, i think a spread up to say -24 could be very viable. I need to do more research on this one.
I know you are very selective in the first few weeks. how may additional picks do you think you will have for week 1. I like Baylor up to 30 for many reasons. I have you a few earlier. Don't underestiate the Bennett angle, the improved Baylor D, the overall improved talent via recruiting, and though Morris will have SMU in a bowl soon enough, game one will be tough against a motivated top 5 team. in addition, Ford at SMU holds 30. At least 50% to 70% of the seats will be filled with Baylor supporters. I live in the DFW region, so I may go to the game. I just hope that I can get it around 30 or better. Briles record ATS is excptional. He is a real person when it comes to that. plus, DFW is a big recruiting ground for Baylor. He will send a message that at least for the near term, SMU should not be considered over Baylor. If somem how SMU scores say 14, Briles will keep scoring. this is a very solid play, in my opinion, for the reasons stated...
LH, If you recall that chart I sent you, it pays to be selective.
At + 15 MOV I am successful 82 % of the time
At < 7 MOV I am successful 54 % of the time.
It pays to wait for legitimate value and risk slightly more per wager. The key word is legitimate value that comes from establishing a format and keeping a record of your results of all games you cap.
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