LH , Please go to CBS Sports College Football and read the article Kirby Smart " Bama defense did respect Cardale Jones ". Nick Saban asked Tom Herman to stop by Tuscaloosa on his way to Houston to explain to him how OSU racked up 537 yds on Bama's defense. It's no secret that Bama struggles vs the spread. Many teams do not match up well vs certain teams. These are the types of teams you might want to look to .
LH
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
thanks...good stuff
LH , Please go to CBS Sports College Football and read the article Kirby Smart " Bama defense did respect Cardale Jones ". Nick Saban asked Tom Herman to stop by Tuscaloosa on his way to Houston to explain to him how OSU racked up 537 yds on Bama's defense. It's no secret that Bama struggles vs the spread. Many teams do not match up well vs certain teams. These are the types of teams you might want to look to .
LH , Please go to CBS Sports College Football and read the article Kirby Smart " Bama defense did NOT respect Cardale Jones ". Nick Saban asked Tom Herman to stop by Tuscaloosa on his way to Houston to explain to him how OSU racked up 537 yds on Bama's defense. It's no secret that Bama struggles vs the spread. Many teams do not match up well vs certain teams. These are the types of teams you might want to look to .
LH
Sorry , That should read DID NOT respect Cardale Jones
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
LH , Please go to CBS Sports College Football and read the article Kirby Smart " Bama defense did NOT respect Cardale Jones ". Nick Saban asked Tom Herman to stop by Tuscaloosa on his way to Houston to explain to him how OSU racked up 537 yds on Bama's defense. It's no secret that Bama struggles vs the spread. Many teams do not match up well vs certain teams. These are the types of teams you might want to look to .
LH
Sorry , That should read DID NOT respect Cardale Jones
Wise - so if for Mich St, Oregon is a revenge look ahead revenge spot, why wouldn't you consider the look ahead aspects for this Miss St S Miss matchup. Granted, Miss St beat LSU at BR last year (with LSU QB troubles), but only won by 4 or 5. After Ole Miss and Bama, this is one of the biggest games of the year for Miss St (LSU). both games away, with the caveat that W Mich has a much better offense and S Miss is weaker now. But, relatively speaking, if with all its losses on D, Miss St knows it will have to play much better to win or be competitive against LSU on Sep 12, wouldn't the same model apply to Mich St? W Mich is getting a lot of positive press coming out of Mich. I doubt there 30K stadium will be that imposing on Mich St. In addition, Mich St. is 17-8 ATS as a road favorite under Dantonio...something to consider. I recall advice from last year. focus on value, and don't try to rationalize a pick that may have no value. I understand that. I just think Mich St D will be playing shut down D in week 1 (as a real life scrimmage prior to Oregon, and Cook will lead the O on not flashy but methodical drives. They won't incorporate all of their O game plan that they will have for Oregon, but, I have to beliee that Dantonio is a good enough coach (unlike Mack Brown against Ark St at home a few years ago) to realize that they won't be able to just turn on the switch in week 2 against Oregon after a lax effort in week 1. If this were a mid season game against a better than average tri directional mich quasi FCS school, I would be leary. Had Mich St just come off a tough game with Penn St or Ohio St or Michigan, then I could see a let down. I just don't see that on the road in week 1. The Mich St W Mich spread is -21.5 on 5D. I like Mich st at -21 or better.
So in summary, tell me why with all their losses on D, why you don't think there will be a look ahead for Miss St, but you think there will be for Mich St?
LH , I thought I mentioned it earlier , but let me repeat. My concern is laying - 24 on the road to a team that exhibits some offensive skills. In other words :
ScoringNat, RankPts / Gm.
W. Michigan # 33 33
So. Miss. # 116 18
LH , Based on this, I feel there is greater value in taking MissSt and laying - 13 on the road than in taking Mich St. on the road and laying -24. Hope that explains it .
LH
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
Wise - so if for Mich St, Oregon is a revenge look ahead revenge spot, why wouldn't you consider the look ahead aspects for this Miss St S Miss matchup. Granted, Miss St beat LSU at BR last year (with LSU QB troubles), but only won by 4 or 5. After Ole Miss and Bama, this is one of the biggest games of the year for Miss St (LSU). both games away, with the caveat that W Mich has a much better offense and S Miss is weaker now. But, relatively speaking, if with all its losses on D, Miss St knows it will have to play much better to win or be competitive against LSU on Sep 12, wouldn't the same model apply to Mich St? W Mich is getting a lot of positive press coming out of Mich. I doubt there 30K stadium will be that imposing on Mich St. In addition, Mich St. is 17-8 ATS as a road favorite under Dantonio...something to consider. I recall advice from last year. focus on value, and don't try to rationalize a pick that may have no value. I understand that. I just think Mich St D will be playing shut down D in week 1 (as a real life scrimmage prior to Oregon, and Cook will lead the O on not flashy but methodical drives. They won't incorporate all of their O game plan that they will have for Oregon, but, I have to beliee that Dantonio is a good enough coach (unlike Mack Brown against Ark St at home a few years ago) to realize that they won't be able to just turn on the switch in week 2 against Oregon after a lax effort in week 1. If this were a mid season game against a better than average tri directional mich quasi FCS school, I would be leary. Had Mich St just come off a tough game with Penn St or Ohio St or Michigan, then I could see a let down. I just don't see that on the road in week 1. The Mich St W Mich spread is -21.5 on 5D. I like Mich st at -21 or better.
So in summary, tell me why with all their losses on D, why you don't think there will be a look ahead for Miss St, but you think there will be for Mich St?
LH , I thought I mentioned it earlier , but let me repeat. My concern is laying - 24 on the road to a team that exhibits some offensive skills. In other words :
ScoringNat, RankPts / Gm.
W. Michigan # 33 33
So. Miss. # 116 18
LH , Based on this, I feel there is greater value in taking MissSt and laying - 13 on the road than in taking Mich St. on the road and laying -24. Hope that explains it .
wise - what's your perspective on auburn. specifically with the new QB and Muschamp impacting an otherwise underachieving Defense. It is a wait and see for me. I recall your advice last year, about new QB's and new coordinators in the first few weeks of the season, especially on Offense. I think Auburn is legit this season, a NC contender, but I think that I will pass in weeks 1-3. The exception to the new QB rule is Baylor in my opinion.
my week 1 leans as of today
Baylor
Miss St
Mich St
NC St
Tenn
Auburn
LonghornHoosier
0
wise - what's your perspective on auburn. specifically with the new QB and Muschamp impacting an otherwise underachieving Defense. It is a wait and see for me. I recall your advice last year, about new QB's and new coordinators in the first few weeks of the season, especially on Offense. I think Auburn is legit this season, a NC contender, but I think that I will pass in weeks 1-3. The exception to the new QB rule is Baylor in my opinion.
wise - what's your perspective on auburn. specifically with the new QB and Muschamp impacting an otherwise underachieving Defense. It is a wait and see for me. I recall your advice last year, about new QB's and new coordinators in the first few weeks of the season, especially on Offense. I think Auburn is legit this season, a NC contender, but I think that I will pass in weeks 1-3. The exception to the new QB rule is Baylor in my opinion.
my week 1 leans as of today
Baylor
Miss St
Mich St
NC St
Tenn
Auburn
LH, Auburn lost a great deal of talent from a year ago. While Muschamp is a great hire, I would like Week 1 to show me just how well his players are grasping his system., which means I would pass on a wager on them. The books and the public are also favoring Tenn. which means you will be paying a premium to see if Dobbs is ready for the next level. While you can bet them , I prefer to let others take the risk , and if they really pound them hard, I'd take the other side of both.
LH
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
wise - what's your perspective on auburn. specifically with the new QB and Muschamp impacting an otherwise underachieving Defense. It is a wait and see for me. I recall your advice last year, about new QB's and new coordinators in the first few weeks of the season, especially on Offense. I think Auburn is legit this season, a NC contender, but I think that I will pass in weeks 1-3. The exception to the new QB rule is Baylor in my opinion.
my week 1 leans as of today
Baylor
Miss St
Mich St
NC St
Tenn
Auburn
LH, Auburn lost a great deal of talent from a year ago. While Muschamp is a great hire, I would like Week 1 to show me just how well his players are grasping his system., which means I would pass on a wager on them. The books and the public are also favoring Tenn. which means you will be paying a premium to see if Dobbs is ready for the next level. While you can bet them , I prefer to let others take the risk , and if they really pound them hard, I'd take the other side of both.
I agree with you on both Tenn and Auburn. Tenn is young, and though Dobbs has potential, who knows how they will come out of the gate. In addition, BG has not been play D, but they could show up in Nashville with aggressive play, and if Tenn is indeed looking ahead to OU (coaches won't but it is human nature for 19-20 year olds to be thinking about a team that destroyed them last season).
I still like NC State with Brissett. I watched highlights of the NC ST v NC game last season. NC State owned them at CH. They are up and coming, though they are suspect at WR and the DL.
I really like your approach. you can see that I have a some square in me, but I am trying to get a bank roll aggressive, but more conservative approach with regard to the scrutiny of the matchups. As they say about sharps (which I assume that is what you are), they don't "think" they are going to win, they "know" they are going to win. Granted, no one is perfect, not even you sharps, but sharps have the discipline to be right a great majority of the time.
I still like Mich St. I think there is value. Mich St. goal will be to send a message to Oregon, when you come to our house, you are going to feel pain. I don't buy that a Dantonio will let a good tri directional Michigan school have any hope of beating Mich St, even at home. As far as W Mich passing game, those stats were built up primarily against bad MAC schools. As I believe that you told me before, in weeks 1-4, the D is ahead of the O, and prowess in the trenches wins games Mich St is going to utterly dominate W Michigan in the trenches. W Mich will pass deep, and Mich St. will defense with a nickel or maybe 6 quasi DB's. Its going to get ugly fast. This is not delusion. I think it is good that W Mich is a better MAC team (as oppose to Miami Ohio or E Mich. I will be very surprised, if Mich St blows off prep for W Mich to focus on Oregon. I think it will be a full scale dress rehearsal. Especially with Narduzzi gone, Mich St will have a chip on its shoulders from the get go. According to Steele, Mich St v Oregon will be a pick. I am not trying to be delusional, or trying to rationalize a big Mich St win. I just think, prior to Big 10 play, Mich St. is going to open up on the road, by making a statement. Granted, a win over Oregon in week 2 (granted without Mariota) along with a win over Ohio St, will put them in the playoff.
Targets - July 7, 2015
Baylor -30
Miss St -20
Mich St -21
Thanks again. If my first two weeks go as I expect, I will be in vegas in week 3.
LonghornHoosier
0
I agree with you on both Tenn and Auburn. Tenn is young, and though Dobbs has potential, who knows how they will come out of the gate. In addition, BG has not been play D, but they could show up in Nashville with aggressive play, and if Tenn is indeed looking ahead to OU (coaches won't but it is human nature for 19-20 year olds to be thinking about a team that destroyed them last season).
I still like NC State with Brissett. I watched highlights of the NC ST v NC game last season. NC State owned them at CH. They are up and coming, though they are suspect at WR and the DL.
I really like your approach. you can see that I have a some square in me, but I am trying to get a bank roll aggressive, but more conservative approach with regard to the scrutiny of the matchups. As they say about sharps (which I assume that is what you are), they don't "think" they are going to win, they "know" they are going to win. Granted, no one is perfect, not even you sharps, but sharps have the discipline to be right a great majority of the time.
I still like Mich St. I think there is value. Mich St. goal will be to send a message to Oregon, when you come to our house, you are going to feel pain. I don't buy that a Dantonio will let a good tri directional Michigan school have any hope of beating Mich St, even at home. As far as W Mich passing game, those stats were built up primarily against bad MAC schools. As I believe that you told me before, in weeks 1-4, the D is ahead of the O, and prowess in the trenches wins games Mich St is going to utterly dominate W Michigan in the trenches. W Mich will pass deep, and Mich St. will defense with a nickel or maybe 6 quasi DB's. Its going to get ugly fast. This is not delusion. I think it is good that W Mich is a better MAC team (as oppose to Miami Ohio or E Mich. I will be very surprised, if Mich St blows off prep for W Mich to focus on Oregon. I think it will be a full scale dress rehearsal. Especially with Narduzzi gone, Mich St will have a chip on its shoulders from the get go. According to Steele, Mich St v Oregon will be a pick. I am not trying to be delusional, or trying to rationalize a big Mich St win. I just think, prior to Big 10 play, Mich St. is going to open up on the road, by making a statement. Granted, a win over Oregon in week 2 (granted without Mariota) along with a win over Ohio St, will put them in the playoff.
Targets - July 7, 2015
Baylor -30
Miss St -20
Mich St -21
Thanks again. If my first two weeks go as I expect, I will be in vegas in week 3.
I agree with you on both Tenn and Auburn. Tenn is young, and though Dobbs has potential, who knows how they will come out of the gate. In addition, BG has not been play D, but they could show up in Nashville with aggressive play, and if Tenn is indeed looking ahead to OU (coaches won't but it is human nature for 19-20 year olds to be thinking about a team that destroyed them last season).
I still like NC State with Brissett. I watched highlights of the NC ST v NC game last season. NC State owned them at CH. They are up and coming, though they are suspect at WR and the DL.
I really like your approach. you can see that I have a some square in me, but I am trying to get a bank roll aggressive, but more conservative approach with regard to the scrutiny of the matchups. As they say about sharps (which I assume that is what you are), they don't "think" they are going to win, they "know" they are going to win. Granted, no one is perfect, not even you sharps, but sharps have the discipline to be right a great majority of the time.
I still like Mich St. I think there is value. Mich St. goal will be to send a message to Oregon, when you come to our house, you are going to feel pain. I don't buy that a Dantonio will let a good tri directional Michigan school have any hope of beating Mich St, even at home. As far as W Mich passing game, those stats were built up primarily against bad MAC schools. As I believe that you told me before, in weeks 1-4, the D is ahead of the O, and prowess in the trenches wins games Mich St is going to utterly dominate W Michigan in the trenches. W Mich will pass deep, and Mich St. will defense with a nickel or maybe 6 quasi DB's. Its going to get ugly fast. This is not delusion. I think it is good that W Mich is a better MAC team (as oppose to Miami Ohio or E Mich. I will be very surprised, if Mich St blows off prep for W Mich to focus on Oregon. I think it will be a full scale dress rehearsal. Especially with Narduzzi gone, Mich St will have a chip on its shoulders from the get go. According to Steele, Mich St v Oregon will be a pick. I am not trying to be delusional, or trying to rationalize a big Mich St win. I just think, prior to Big 10 play, Mich St. is going to open up on the road, by making a statement. Granted, a win over Oregon in week 2 (granted without Mariota) along with a win over Ohio St, will put them in the playoff.
Targets - July 7, 2015
Baylor -30
Miss St -20
Mich St -21
Thanks again. If my first two weeks go as I expect, I will be in vegas in week 3.
LH.We've all got some ' square " in us I try to make each wager a business decision. In doing so, measured value relative to risk is of primary importance to me.
LH
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
I agree with you on both Tenn and Auburn. Tenn is young, and though Dobbs has potential, who knows how they will come out of the gate. In addition, BG has not been play D, but they could show up in Nashville with aggressive play, and if Tenn is indeed looking ahead to OU (coaches won't but it is human nature for 19-20 year olds to be thinking about a team that destroyed them last season).
I still like NC State with Brissett. I watched highlights of the NC ST v NC game last season. NC State owned them at CH. They are up and coming, though they are suspect at WR and the DL.
I really like your approach. you can see that I have a some square in me, but I am trying to get a bank roll aggressive, but more conservative approach with regard to the scrutiny of the matchups. As they say about sharps (which I assume that is what you are), they don't "think" they are going to win, they "know" they are going to win. Granted, no one is perfect, not even you sharps, but sharps have the discipline to be right a great majority of the time.
I still like Mich St. I think there is value. Mich St. goal will be to send a message to Oregon, when you come to our house, you are going to feel pain. I don't buy that a Dantonio will let a good tri directional Michigan school have any hope of beating Mich St, even at home. As far as W Mich passing game, those stats were built up primarily against bad MAC schools. As I believe that you told me before, in weeks 1-4, the D is ahead of the O, and prowess in the trenches wins games Mich St is going to utterly dominate W Michigan in the trenches. W Mich will pass deep, and Mich St. will defense with a nickel or maybe 6 quasi DB's. Its going to get ugly fast. This is not delusion. I think it is good that W Mich is a better MAC team (as oppose to Miami Ohio or E Mich. I will be very surprised, if Mich St blows off prep for W Mich to focus on Oregon. I think it will be a full scale dress rehearsal. Especially with Narduzzi gone, Mich St will have a chip on its shoulders from the get go. According to Steele, Mich St v Oregon will be a pick. I am not trying to be delusional, or trying to rationalize a big Mich St win. I just think, prior to Big 10 play, Mich St. is going to open up on the road, by making a statement. Granted, a win over Oregon in week 2 (granted without Mariota) along with a win over Ohio St, will put them in the playoff.
Targets - July 7, 2015
Baylor -30
Miss St -20
Mich St -21
Thanks again. If my first two weeks go as I expect, I will be in vegas in week 3.
LH.We've all got some ' square " in us I try to make each wager a business decision. In doing so, measured value relative to risk is of primary importance to me.
Is that Baylor spread for the full game. If so its hard to believe it would be that low. Steele has the game capped at Baylor -34. The latest I saw on 5 dimes was Baylor -30. The intangibles here lean heavily in a baylor cover. no look ahead, baylor DC bennett was fired by SMU prior to Jones. plus the recruiting aspect for Baylor recruiting DFW to demonstrate to recruits that though morris has upside, it will take him a few years to get the players to fit his system. If you got Baylor -20, that is as absolute steal. The full game on Se 4 will be Baylor -34...please confirm...what book would be dumb enough to post a baylor -20 line this early. Baylor's QB will be as good as if not better than Petty, granted it is the 1st game, but Baylor is plug and play...and there D is better this season. tell me where you got -20 and what is the line right now at that book?
LH, I believe using Steele's Power Ratings in order to establish value is a huge mistake as I don't think Steele is willing to put his money at risk on the data that he puts out. I've mentioned this every year on this forum and cited examples of where his " Power Ratings " have proved wrong in the past. The same can be said for Sagarins ratings as last year he was at best 49.6% vs the pointspread. You need to be 52.3% accurate just to break even, Be careful what metrics you use to establish value. LH
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
Wise
Is that Baylor spread for the full game. If so its hard to believe it would be that low. Steele has the game capped at Baylor -34. The latest I saw on 5 dimes was Baylor -30. The intangibles here lean heavily in a baylor cover. no look ahead, baylor DC bennett was fired by SMU prior to Jones. plus the recruiting aspect for Baylor recruiting DFW to demonstrate to recruits that though morris has upside, it will take him a few years to get the players to fit his system. If you got Baylor -20, that is as absolute steal. The full game on Se 4 will be Baylor -34...please confirm...what book would be dumb enough to post a baylor -20 line this early. Baylor's QB will be as good as if not better than Petty, granted it is the 1st game, but Baylor is plug and play...and there D is better this season. tell me where you got -20 and what is the line right now at that book?
LH, I believe using Steele's Power Ratings in order to establish value is a huge mistake as I don't think Steele is willing to put his money at risk on the data that he puts out. I've mentioned this every year on this forum and cited examples of where his " Power Ratings " have proved wrong in the past. The same can be said for Sagarins ratings as last year he was at best 49.6% vs the pointspread. You need to be 52.3% accurate just to break even, Be careful what metrics you use to establish value. LH
I agree with you on both Tenn and Auburn. Tenn is young, and though Dobbs has potential, who knows how they will come out of the gate. In addition, BG has not been play D, but they could show up in Nashville with aggressive play, and if Tenn is indeed looking ahead to OU (coaches won't but it is human nature for 19-20 year olds to be thinking about a team that destroyed them last season).
I still like NC State with Brissett. I watched highlights of the NC ST v NC game last season. NC State owned them at CH. They are up and coming, though they are suspect at WR and the DL.
I really like your approach. you can see that I have a some square in me, but I am trying to get a bank roll aggressive, but more conservative approach with regard to the scrutiny of the matchups. As they say about sharps (which I assume that is what you are), they don't "think" they are going to win, they "know" they are going to win. Granted, no one is perfect, not even you sharps, but sharps have the discipline to be right a great majority of the time.
I still like Mich St. I think there is value. Mich St. goal will be to send a message to Oregon, when you come to our house, you are going to feel pain. I don't buy that a Dantonio will let a good tri directional Michigan school have any hope of beating Mich St, even at home. As far as W Mich passing game, those stats were built up primarily against bad MAC schools. As I believe that you told me before, in weeks 1-4, the D is ahead of the O, and prowess in the trenches wins games Mich St is going to utterly dominate W Michigan in the trenches. W Mich will pass deep, and Mich St. will defense with a nickel or maybe 6 quasi DB's. Its going to get ugly fast. This is not delusion. I think it is good that W Mich is a better MAC team (as oppose to Miami Ohio or E Mich. I will be very surprised, if Mich St blows off prep for W Mich to focus on Oregon. I think it will be a full scale dress rehearsal. Especially with Narduzzi gone, Mich St will have a chip on its shoulders from the get go. According to Steele, Mich St v Oregon will be a pick. I am not trying to be delusional, or trying to rationalize a big Mich St win. I just think, prior to Big 10 play, Mich St. is going to open up on the road, by making a statement. Granted, a win over Oregon in week 2 (granted without Mariota) along with a win over Ohio St, will put them in the playoff.
Targets - July 7, 2015
Baylor -30
Miss St -20
Mich St -21
Thanks again. If my first two weeks go as I expect, I will be in vegas in week 3.
LH, I believe that discipline definitely gives a bettor an edge vs the books , but that's not what solely creates a winning Bettor. It's developing a methodology of determining the true value of a play vs the line and knowing the true risk that you assume in making a wager at any given pointspread. That is where the " expectancy " comes from, when you know your probability of success based on what price you paid for the wager.
LH
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
I agree with you on both Tenn and Auburn. Tenn is young, and though Dobbs has potential, who knows how they will come out of the gate. In addition, BG has not been play D, but they could show up in Nashville with aggressive play, and if Tenn is indeed looking ahead to OU (coaches won't but it is human nature for 19-20 year olds to be thinking about a team that destroyed them last season).
I still like NC State with Brissett. I watched highlights of the NC ST v NC game last season. NC State owned them at CH. They are up and coming, though they are suspect at WR and the DL.
I really like your approach. you can see that I have a some square in me, but I am trying to get a bank roll aggressive, but more conservative approach with regard to the scrutiny of the matchups. As they say about sharps (which I assume that is what you are), they don't "think" they are going to win, they "know" they are going to win. Granted, no one is perfect, not even you sharps, but sharps have the discipline to be right a great majority of the time.
I still like Mich St. I think there is value. Mich St. goal will be to send a message to Oregon, when you come to our house, you are going to feel pain. I don't buy that a Dantonio will let a good tri directional Michigan school have any hope of beating Mich St, even at home. As far as W Mich passing game, those stats were built up primarily against bad MAC schools. As I believe that you told me before, in weeks 1-4, the D is ahead of the O, and prowess in the trenches wins games Mich St is going to utterly dominate W Michigan in the trenches. W Mich will pass deep, and Mich St. will defense with a nickel or maybe 6 quasi DB's. Its going to get ugly fast. This is not delusion. I think it is good that W Mich is a better MAC team (as oppose to Miami Ohio or E Mich. I will be very surprised, if Mich St blows off prep for W Mich to focus on Oregon. I think it will be a full scale dress rehearsal. Especially with Narduzzi gone, Mich St will have a chip on its shoulders from the get go. According to Steele, Mich St v Oregon will be a pick. I am not trying to be delusional, or trying to rationalize a big Mich St win. I just think, prior to Big 10 play, Mich St. is going to open up on the road, by making a statement. Granted, a win over Oregon in week 2 (granted without Mariota) along with a win over Ohio St, will put them in the playoff.
Targets - July 7, 2015
Baylor -30
Miss St -20
Mich St -21
Thanks again. If my first two weeks go as I expect, I will be in vegas in week 3.
LH, I believe that discipline definitely gives a bettor an edge vs the books , but that's not what solely creates a winning Bettor. It's developing a methodology of determining the true value of a play vs the line and knowing the true risk that you assume in making a wager at any given pointspread. That is where the " expectancy " comes from, when you know your probability of success based on what price you paid for the wager.
LH, I believe that discipline definitely gives a bettor an edge vs the books , but that's not what solely creates a winning Bettor. It's developing a methodology of determining the true value of a play vs the line and knowing the true risk that you assume in making a wager at any given pointspread. That is where the " expectancy " comes from, when you know your probability of success based on what price you paid for the wager.
LH
Roger that...
LonghornHoosier
0
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
LH, I believe that discipline definitely gives a bettor an edge vs the books , but that's not what solely creates a winning Bettor. It's developing a methodology of determining the true value of a play vs the line and knowing the true risk that you assume in making a wager at any given pointspread. That is where the " expectancy " comes from, when you know your probability of success based on what price you paid for the wager.
I played about 8-10 games on the BOL openers, almost all have moved 7+ points. Who cares if I like the one side or not, I can buy out of it at kickoff and have a 7 pt middle. Its all about value. Don't overthink this. Should have taken Baylor -20 for the max at open.
0
I played about 8-10 games on the BOL openers, almost all have moved 7+ points. Who cares if I like the one side or not, I can buy out of it at kickoff and have a 7 pt middle. Its all about value. Don't overthink this. Should have taken Baylor -20 for the max at open.
did you have limitations (amount) on those BOL wagers? I think these 1st out books like to tease for the purpose of getting marketing spin. No competent book manager with a brain would have legitimately capped Baylor at only -20. I congratulate you for getting it early, but I think its quasi marketing expense to kick off the season. Had Baylor opened at 28, then that would have been a reasonable open. this seems too deliberate...if its too good to be true, then...
rest assured on the Baylor and Miss St. lines you got, you will win those wagers (and probably the others as well).
LonghornHoosier
0
wise
did you have limitations (amount) on those BOL wagers? I think these 1st out books like to tease for the purpose of getting marketing spin. No competent book manager with a brain would have legitimately capped Baylor at only -20. I congratulate you for getting it early, but I think its quasi marketing expense to kick off the season. Had Baylor opened at 28, then that would have been a reasonable open. this seems too deliberate...if its too good to be true, then...
rest assured on the Baylor and Miss St. lines you got, you will win those wagers (and probably the others as well).
did you have limitations (amount) on those BOL wagers? I think these 1st out books like to tease for the purpose of getting marketing spin. No competent book manager with a brain would have legitimately capped Baylor at only -20. I congratulate you for getting it early, but I think its quasi marketing expense to kick off the season. Had Baylor opened at 28, then that would have been a reasonable open. this seems too deliberate...if its too good to be true, then...
rest assured on the Baylor and Miss St. lines you got, you will win those wagers (and probably the others as well).
LH, Yes they have limits on openers, but I did not find that to be problematic in acquiring a position on a wager. I take exception with your degrading comments on BOL's staff for hanging what you perceive to be a bad number. I consider them to do a fine job in a difficult enviornment overall. I'd like to see what your week 1 numbers would look like if you were the first to hang a line.I'm sure there would be a few gems in there as well. I prefer to be thankful and humble that in week 1, I feel that I got the best numbers that I could at this time and act like I've been there before. Now I've got the opportunity to look at the other side of many of these here which is typical in Week 1 as you will pay a premium for favorites. LH, no one will get it right all of the time in betting or bookmaking. Be thankful for the opportunities that come your way in sportsbetting and celebrate them in a professional manner.
LH
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
wise
did you have limitations (amount) on those BOL wagers? I think these 1st out books like to tease for the purpose of getting marketing spin. No competent book manager with a brain would have legitimately capped Baylor at only -20. I congratulate you for getting it early, but I think its quasi marketing expense to kick off the season. Had Baylor opened at 28, then that would have been a reasonable open. this seems too deliberate...if its too good to be true, then...
rest assured on the Baylor and Miss St. lines you got, you will win those wagers (and probably the others as well).
LH, Yes they have limits on openers, but I did not find that to be problematic in acquiring a position on a wager. I take exception with your degrading comments on BOL's staff for hanging what you perceive to be a bad number. I consider them to do a fine job in a difficult enviornment overall. I'd like to see what your week 1 numbers would look like if you were the first to hang a line.I'm sure there would be a few gems in there as well. I prefer to be thankful and humble that in week 1, I feel that I got the best numbers that I could at this time and act like I've been there before. Now I've got the opportunity to look at the other side of many of these here which is typical in Week 1 as you will pay a premium for favorites. LH, no one will get it right all of the time in betting or bookmaking. Be thankful for the opportunities that come your way in sportsbetting and celebrate them in a professional manner.
LH, How do these line moves affect your leans? We haven't even seen most books post their lines yet. Week 1 is the hardest to price for both books and bettors.
Are you ready to bet some " dogs" yet ???
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
LH, How do these line moves affect your leans? We haven't even seen most books post their lines yet. Week 1 is the hardest to price for both books and bettors.
degrading comments on some offshore book? really, lighten up bro. this is anonymous college football betting forum. I have graciously taken your criticism in the past. you seem to get upset when anyone questions your perspective (see the extremely marginal University of Houston Defense from 2014 that you went to the mat for when I expressed skepticism. that's why we exchange information on covers, to hopefully obtain perspectives that help us all get better, to defeat the enemy, the books...
its just a hypothesis. these books make money on volume, which is driven by marketing. alternatively, the BOL early line on baylor was probably and simplistically set due to the new Baylor QB, the perception that Baylor's D has not improved, Morris impact, and the fact that the game is at SMU. Maybe it wasn't intentional, maybe just an open with a lot of restrictions to protect the book. With regard to Miss St, they have Prescott, Wilson and not much else from an experience standpoint. But, they have an extremely talented team led by a very good coach. Its just my opinion, and not a dig on BOL or you...
I meant disrespect to the BOL or you. You have taught me a lot to make me a better capper and I appreciate that. But, you should be open for feedback, whether you respect the poster or not.
With regard to your dog dig, when I find a good one, I will make that bet... As you have taught me, its all about value. And I plan to show you this season that your mentorship has made an impact...Peace My Friend...
Wise
LonghornHoosier
0
Wise
degrading comments on some offshore book? really, lighten up bro. this is anonymous college football betting forum. I have graciously taken your criticism in the past. you seem to get upset when anyone questions your perspective (see the extremely marginal University of Houston Defense from 2014 that you went to the mat for when I expressed skepticism. that's why we exchange information on covers, to hopefully obtain perspectives that help us all get better, to defeat the enemy, the books...
its just a hypothesis. these books make money on volume, which is driven by marketing. alternatively, the BOL early line on baylor was probably and simplistically set due to the new Baylor QB, the perception that Baylor's D has not improved, Morris impact, and the fact that the game is at SMU. Maybe it wasn't intentional, maybe just an open with a lot of restrictions to protect the book. With regard to Miss St, they have Prescott, Wilson and not much else from an experience standpoint. But, they have an extremely talented team led by a very good coach. Its just my opinion, and not a dig on BOL or you...
I meant disrespect to the BOL or you. You have taught me a lot to make me a better capper and I appreciate that. But, you should be open for feedback, whether you respect the poster or not.
With regard to your dog dig, when I find a good one, I will make that bet... As you have taught me, its all about value. And I plan to show you this season that your mentorship has made an impact...Peace My Friend...
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Thanks Bud. College Football can't get here 
As you have taught me, its all about value. And I plan to show you this season that your mentorship has made an impact...Peace My Friend...
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