BA , I actually thought I got such a great deal that I shouldn't post it with this crowd. They all probably hate me now. I just happened to be in my office as they released the lines. I'll take it.
BA
Then reality hit me. Since I don't care whether they hate me or not. I'm gonna post em.
BA
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
BA , I actually thought I got such a great deal that I shouldn't post it with this crowd. They all probably hate me now. I just happened to be in my office as they released the lines. I'll take it.
BA
Then reality hit me. Since I don't care whether they hate me or not. I'm gonna post em.
Wise what plays do you feel 100 % about week one between Tcu, Baylor ang Miss St.
The problem with all 3 is that they open on the road. At these prices or greater, there is more risk than I would be willing to assume in Week 1 on any of these.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by czar2k4ever:
Wise what plays do you feel 100 % about week one between Tcu, Baylor ang Miss St.
The problem with all 3 is that they open on the road. At these prices or greater, there is more risk than I would be willing to assume in Week 1 on any of these.
The problem with all 3 is that they open on the road. At these prices or greater, there is more risk than I would be willing to assume in Week 1 on any of these.
Sorry to be somewhat ambiguous in my reply, but I am a " value " player. The greater the value , the greater the probability of success. I do not see enough value at those prices to warrant the risk. I would wait and let line movement develop other opportunities that provide a greater chance for success. I need to see maximum value coupled with minimum risk to make a play. IMO these 3 plays provide neither.
Best of Luck to you
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
The problem with all 3 is that they open on the road. At these prices or greater, there is more risk than I would be willing to assume in Week 1 on any of these.
Sorry to be somewhat ambiguous in my reply, but I am a " value " player. The greater the value , the greater the probability of success. I do not see enough value at those prices to warrant the risk. I would wait and let line movement develop other opportunities that provide a greater chance for success. I need to see maximum value coupled with minimum risk to make a play. IMO these 3 plays provide neither.
That's the prime reason that I don't post my plays on this forum. In fact . I was getting the same lines that JDN was getting and by not posting mine , he was taking all the heat.
To JDN
This is an interesting subject. I prefer to lock in plays early as they're released if I see something I like. Then I post them here immediately after. That's about as transparent as you can get in my opinion. Now, if one locks in a line and posts it several days later after it has changed, then that's another story that should be frowned upon. I'm certain jdn posted ASAP as well. I, for one, enjoyed his threads.
It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't conversation. People get called out all the time when they show up midseason with no posts and claim to have a certain record. I say just post your plays right away and that's the best any of us can do.
And I don't bet (or really watch much) NFL. As mentioned, that helps get ready right away for the next week in college ball.
TD
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
That's the prime reason that I don't post my plays on this forum. In fact . I was getting the same lines that JDN was getting and by not posting mine , he was taking all the heat.
To JDN
This is an interesting subject. I prefer to lock in plays early as they're released if I see something I like. Then I post them here immediately after. That's about as transparent as you can get in my opinion. Now, if one locks in a line and posts it several days later after it has changed, then that's another story that should be frowned upon. I'm certain jdn posted ASAP as well. I, for one, enjoyed his threads.
It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't conversation. People get called out all the time when they show up midseason with no posts and claim to have a certain record. I say just post your plays right away and that's the best any of us can do.
And I don't bet (or really watch much) NFL. As mentioned, that helps get ready right away for the next week in college ball.
This is an interesting subject. I prefer to lock in plays early as they're released if I see something I like. Then I post them here immediately after. That's about as transparent as you can get in my opinion. Now, if one locks in a line and posts it several days later after it has changed, then that's another story that should be frowned upon. I'm certain jdn posted ASAP as well. I, for one, enjoyed his threads.
It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't conversation. People get called out all the time when they show up midseason with no posts and claim to have a certain record. I say just post your plays right away and that's the best any of us can do.
And I don't bet (or really watch much) NFL. As mentioned, that helps get ready right away for the next week in college ball.
TD
TD , I agree with you to a certain extent. My primary focus is to get my bets down at my target price. that sometimes takes time to get done. For me it's business and that's my priority. My reference is to what I've seen happen to posters like Jimmy who went out of his way to help others only to feel their vengeance when he lost a few. People on this forum tend to suck the life out of the better cappers on all forums and I think that could be a distraction. In the past I've posted in Week 1 , maybe 2 but then I'm just focused on the task at hand and quite frankly, posting my plays to the forum was not as important to me. As I said, for me it's all business. I'm going to try to post a whole season this year , we'll see how it goes. Since I'm a value bettor some of my plays are openers , but many can be late line moves. I'm sure there will be haters no matter what. Since I joined this forum , my primary goal has been to be a good citizen , and to offer some of my 30 yrs of experience in sportsbetting to the forum in the hope that some may become more proficient at this learning from my mistakes. Lastly, I'm glad to share my selections with the forum as long as it does not distract me from my objective.
TD , I hope you have outstanding success this year
TD
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
This is an interesting subject. I prefer to lock in plays early as they're released if I see something I like. Then I post them here immediately after. That's about as transparent as you can get in my opinion. Now, if one locks in a line and posts it several days later after it has changed, then that's another story that should be frowned upon. I'm certain jdn posted ASAP as well. I, for one, enjoyed his threads.
It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't conversation. People get called out all the time when they show up midseason with no posts and claim to have a certain record. I say just post your plays right away and that's the best any of us can do.
And I don't bet (or really watch much) NFL. As mentioned, that helps get ready right away for the next week in college ball.
TD
TD , I agree with you to a certain extent. My primary focus is to get my bets down at my target price. that sometimes takes time to get done. For me it's business and that's my priority. My reference is to what I've seen happen to posters like Jimmy who went out of his way to help others only to feel their vengeance when he lost a few. People on this forum tend to suck the life out of the better cappers on all forums and I think that could be a distraction. In the past I've posted in Week 1 , maybe 2 but then I'm just focused on the task at hand and quite frankly, posting my plays to the forum was not as important to me. As I said, for me it's all business. I'm going to try to post a whole season this year , we'll see how it goes. Since I'm a value bettor some of my plays are openers , but many can be late line moves. I'm sure there will be haters no matter what. Since I joined this forum , my primary goal has been to be a good citizen , and to offer some of my 30 yrs of experience in sportsbetting to the forum in the hope that some may become more proficient at this learning from my mistakes. Lastly, I'm glad to share my selections with the forum as long as it does not distract me from my objective.
TD , I hope you have outstanding success this year
TD , I agree with you to a certain extent. My primary focus is to get my bets down at my target price. that sometimes takes time to get done. For me it's business and that's my priority. My reference is to what I've seen happen to posters like Jimmy who went out of his way to help others only to feel their vengeance when he lost a few. People on this forum tend to suck the life out of the better cappers on all forums and I think that could be a distraction. In the past I've posted in Week 1 , maybe 2 but then I'm just focused on the task at hand and quite frankly, posting my plays to the forum was not as important to me. As I said, for me it's all business. I'm going to try to post a whole season this year , we'll see how it goes. Since I'm a value bettor some of my plays are openers , but many can be late line moves. I'm sure there will be haters no matter what. Since I joined this forum , my primary goal has been to be a good citizen , and to offer some of my 30 yrs of experience in sportsbetting to the forum in the hope that some may become more proficient at this learning from my mistakes. Lastly, I'm glad to share my selections with the forum as long as it does not distract me from my objective.
TD , I hope you have outstanding success this year
TD
Wiseguy,
Very good post. Agree completely with your priorities. This discussion gives me some perspective on my own time management week to week once the season gets started. Thanks for that. It's one thing to be as prepared as possible with a full offseason to steadily be ready for week 1, but once the season gets going, I always find it a challenge to "keep up" to the level of detail I prefer.
As well, Wise, hope you have outstanding success this season.
0
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
TD , I agree with you to a certain extent. My primary focus is to get my bets down at my target price. that sometimes takes time to get done. For me it's business and that's my priority. My reference is to what I've seen happen to posters like Jimmy who went out of his way to help others only to feel their vengeance when he lost a few. People on this forum tend to suck the life out of the better cappers on all forums and I think that could be a distraction. In the past I've posted in Week 1 , maybe 2 but then I'm just focused on the task at hand and quite frankly, posting my plays to the forum was not as important to me. As I said, for me it's all business. I'm going to try to post a whole season this year , we'll see how it goes. Since I'm a value bettor some of my plays are openers , but many can be late line moves. I'm sure there will be haters no matter what. Since I joined this forum , my primary goal has been to be a good citizen , and to offer some of my 30 yrs of experience in sportsbetting to the forum in the hope that some may become more proficient at this learning from my mistakes. Lastly, I'm glad to share my selections with the forum as long as it does not distract me from my objective.
TD , I hope you have outstanding success this year
TD
Wiseguy,
Very good post. Agree completely with your priorities. This discussion gives me some perspective on my own time management week to week once the season gets started. Thanks for that. It's one thing to be as prepared as possible with a full offseason to steadily be ready for week 1, but once the season gets going, I always find it a challenge to "keep up" to the level of detail I prefer.
As well, Wise, hope you have outstanding success this season.
Very good post. Agree completely with your priorities. This discussion gives me some perspective on my own time management week to week once the season gets started. Thanks for that. It's one thing to be as prepared as possible with a full offseason to steadily be ready for week 1, but once the season gets going, I always find it a challenge to "keep up" to the level of detail I prefer.
As well, Wise, hope you have outstanding success this season.
Amen Bud. After Week 1's games, the pace will definitely accelerate.
TD,
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Wiseguy,
Very good post. Agree completely with your priorities. This discussion gives me some perspective on my own time management week to week once the season gets started. Thanks for that. It's one thing to be as prepared as possible with a full offseason to steadily be ready for week 1, but once the season gets going, I always find it a challenge to "keep up" to the level of detail I prefer.
As well, Wise, hope you have outstanding success this season.
Amen Bud. After Week 1's games, the pace will definitely accelerate.
So I have question. I don't post my cfb picks in this forum for a couple of reasons. One being I don't really care that much about helping the less fortunate than me. Not to be a dikk, but it's a business for me. So this isn't meant as a criticism or anything. But what's the point of posting plays that have lines that most can't get?? For example, BOL releases lines early and I have seen a couple ppl post those opening lines, but they post them days after the line was posted and is no longer available. I mean, everybody can post for different reasons, but I figured the main one was to help others ( I may be wrong in that thinking). And in no way am I comparing your plays to that example. You saw a line, a great one at that, and played and posted it. I see no problem with it. Again, this isn't meant as an attack. The line you posted was still closely available for all when you posted. I was just curious.
Wise
0
So I have question. I don't post my cfb picks in this forum for a couple of reasons. One being I don't really care that much about helping the less fortunate than me. Not to be a dikk, but it's a business for me. So this isn't meant as a criticism or anything. But what's the point of posting plays that have lines that most can't get?? For example, BOL releases lines early and I have seen a couple ppl post those opening lines, but they post them days after the line was posted and is no longer available. I mean, everybody can post for different reasons, but I figured the main one was to help others ( I may be wrong in that thinking). And in no way am I comparing your plays to that example. You saw a line, a great one at that, and played and posted it. I see no problem with it. Again, this isn't meant as an attack. The line you posted was still closely available for all when you posted. I was just curious.
So I have question. I don't post my cfb picks in this forum for a couple of reasons. One being I don't really care that much about helping the less fortunate than me. Not to be a dikk, but it's a business for me. So this isn't meant as a criticism or anything. But what's the point of posting plays that have lines that most can't get?? For example, BOL releases lines early and I have seen a couple ppl post those opening lines, but they post them days after the line was posted and is no longer available. I mean, everybody can post for different reasons, but I figured the main one was to help others ( I may be wrong in that thinking). And in no way am I comparing your plays to that example. You saw a line, a great one at that, and played and posted it. I see no problem with it. Again, this isn't meant as an attack. The line you posted was still closely available for all when you posted. I was just curious.
Wise
Hey Bud, Are you ready for some Football ???? I believe almost nobody on this forum wants to help others out. There are a few like TD , Double , and my bud BA as well as Packers keeping us informed, maybe 20 in all, that try to make the forum a viable information exchange. I believe most post their picks to gain credibility on the forum , which seems very perverted when you consider the makeup of CFB forum participants. A lot of them disappear when they start to lose. It's a difficult choice for me and no one cares how hard I have to work to cap games, if you are hot , they're all over to post your picks, then they'll turn on you in a second the minute you miss one or two. I'm happy to add content to this forum , but like you, this is business for me. If I'm at risk at any time of losing my focus over the demands of this forum, I'd pull the plug in a second on posting my picks. No matter when you post plays some idiot will question where you got it. Hence BA's comment on JDN's posts. For me, there is no benefit to posting my plays as after 30 years of doing this, I don't need cred from anyone. As the season gets into full gear I'm too busy to think about posting plays.
Wheaty, Good to hear from you Bud
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :
So I have question. I don't post my cfb picks in this forum for a couple of reasons. One being I don't really care that much about helping the less fortunate than me. Not to be a dikk, but it's a business for me. So this isn't meant as a criticism or anything. But what's the point of posting plays that have lines that most can't get?? For example, BOL releases lines early and I have seen a couple ppl post those opening lines, but they post them days after the line was posted and is no longer available. I mean, everybody can post for different reasons, but I figured the main one was to help others ( I may be wrong in that thinking). And in no way am I comparing your plays to that example. You saw a line, a great one at that, and played and posted it. I see no problem with it. Again, this isn't meant as an attack. The line you posted was still closely available for all when you posted. I was just curious.
Wise
Hey Bud, Are you ready for some Football ???? I believe almost nobody on this forum wants to help others out. There are a few like TD , Double , and my bud BA as well as Packers keeping us informed, maybe 20 in all, that try to make the forum a viable information exchange. I believe most post their picks to gain credibility on the forum , which seems very perverted when you consider the makeup of CFB forum participants. A lot of them disappear when they start to lose. It's a difficult choice for me and no one cares how hard I have to work to cap games, if you are hot , they're all over to post your picks, then they'll turn on you in a second the minute you miss one or two. I'm happy to add content to this forum , but like you, this is business for me. If I'm at risk at any time of losing my focus over the demands of this forum, I'd pull the plug in a second on posting my picks. No matter when you post plays some idiot will question where you got it. Hence BA's comment on JDN's posts. For me, there is no benefit to posting my plays as after 30 years of doing this, I don't need cred from anyone. As the season gets into full gear I'm too busy to think about posting plays.
Very good post. Agree completely with your priorities. This discussion gives me some perspective on my own time management week to week once the season gets started. Thanks for that. It's one thing to be as prepared as possible with a full offseason to steadily be ready for week 1, but once the season getsgoing, I always find it a challenge to "keep up" to the level of detail I prefer.
As well, Wise, hope you have outstanding success this season.
TD, I used to have that problem as well . I developed a prescreening process that saves me a great deal of time. Since I need to have my number ready before the books post theirs, I find I can now sleep a little later on Sunday morning
TD
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Wiseguy,
Very good post. Agree completely with your priorities. This discussion gives me some perspective on my own time management week to week once the season gets started. Thanks for that. It's one thing to be as prepared as possible with a full offseason to steadily be ready for week 1, but once the season getsgoing, I always find it a challenge to "keep up" to the level of detail I prefer.
As well, Wise, hope you have outstanding success this season.
TD, I used to have that problem as well . I developed a prescreening process that saves me a great deal of time. Since I need to have my number ready before the books post theirs, I find I can now sleep a little later on Sunday morning
I still really like that "159 Under" play.... May have to go back for more.
TD
For the record, BOL opened UW at Boise State total at 63.5. Down to 58 already just one day later. 5dimes opened at 62.5 awhile ago and was sitting at 54.5 yesterday when BOL posted their opening number 9 pts higher. Interesting to me that BOL adjusted to other's current totals for Alabama vs. Wisconsin and TCU at Minnesota, but not this game.
0
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
I still really like that "159 Under" play.... May have to go back for more.
TD
For the record, BOL opened UW at Boise State total at 63.5. Down to 58 already just one day later. 5dimes opened at 62.5 awhile ago and was sitting at 54.5 yesterday when BOL posted their opening number 9 pts higher. Interesting to me that BOL adjusted to other's current totals for Alabama vs. Wisconsin and TCU at Minnesota, but not this game.
For the record, BOL opened UW at Boise State total at 63.5. Down to 58 already just one day later. 5dimes opened at 62.5 awhile ago and was sitting at 54.5 yesterday when BOL posted their opening number 9 pts higher. Interesting to me that BOL adjusted to other's current totals for Alabama vs. Wisconsin and TCU at Minnesota, but not this game.
TD, I'd say the total looks about right at 59 or so as Washington lost a few starters on D I'm waiting for some line movement to make a few plays.
Best of Luck , Bud
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
For the record, BOL opened UW at Boise State total at 63.5. Down to 58 already just one day later. 5dimes opened at 62.5 awhile ago and was sitting at 54.5 yesterday when BOL posted their opening number 9 pts higher. Interesting to me that BOL adjusted to other's current totals for Alabama vs. Wisconsin and TCU at Minnesota, but not this game.
TD, I'd say the total looks about right at 59 or so as Washington lost a few starters on D I'm waiting for some line movement to make a few plays.
I think 58-60 would be great. I think this will be a low scoring game actually. I think the loss of the Offensive coordinator for Boise to Notre Dame will be a problem early in the season. Now They have an unproven O coordinator and a new QB and new RB. I can see both teams starting off slow.
0
I think 58-60 would be great. I think this will be a low scoring game actually. I think the loss of the Offensive coordinator for Boise to Notre Dame will be a problem early in the season. Now They have an unproven O coordinator and a new QB and new RB. I can see both teams starting off slow.
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