To All, The thread I started to honor my mentor Bill Arnsbarger reminds me that we all are mortal and our time will come as well. I will be 69 towards the end of this year, and I want to take a moment to thank those who over the yrs. took the time to teach me the " science " of football as well as those who when I was flying to Las Vegas to apply that science to sportsbetting took the time to teach me a few things that reap dividends even to this day. I'm very thankful for all those who took the time to answer the multitude of questions I had , and also that I was wise enough to listen and learn to apply knowledge to improve my methodology. I will not mention those professional bettors by name , but my thanks and deep gratitude go out to them for pointing me in the right direction. You have been a blessing to me. Thank you. To those on this forum, hopefully I've been able to share some of this with you and provided you with some insight as to my learning process. I hope this forum will make the most of every opportunity to help and support those who earnestly seek to become better at sportsbetting.
I wish all good health and great success this year.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
To All, The thread I started to honor my mentor Bill Arnsbarger reminds me that we all are mortal and our time will come as well. I will be 69 towards the end of this year, and I want to take a moment to thank those who over the yrs. took the time to teach me the " science " of football as well as those who when I was flying to Las Vegas to apply that science to sportsbetting took the time to teach me a few things that reap dividends even to this day. I'm very thankful for all those who took the time to answer the multitude of questions I had , and also that I was wise enough to listen and learn to apply knowledge to improve my methodology. I will not mention those professional bettors by name , but my thanks and deep gratitude go out to them for pointing me in the right direction. You have been a blessing to me. Thank you. To those on this forum, hopefully I've been able to share some of this with you and provided you with some insight as to my learning process. I hope this forum will make the most of every opportunity to help and support those who earnestly seek to become better at sportsbetting.
I wish all good health and great success this year.
To All, The thread I started to honor my mentor Bill Arnsbarger reminds me that we all are mortal and our time will come as well. I will be 69 towards the end of this year, and I want to take a moment to thank those who over the yrs. took the time to teach me the " science " of football as well as those who when I was flying to Las Vegas to apply that science to sportsbetting took the time to teach me a few things that reap dividends even to this day. I'm very thankful for all those who took the time to answer the multitude of questions I had , and I thank the Lord for giving me the wisdom to apply that knowledge to improve my methodology. I will not mention those professional bettors by name , but my thanks and deep gratitude go out to them for pointing me in the right direction. You have been a blessing to me. Thank you. To those on this forum, hopefully I've been able to share some of this with you and provided you with some insight as to my learning process. I hope this forum will make the most of every opportunity to help and support those who earnestly seek to become better at sportsbetting.
I wish all good health and great success this year.
I knew I forgot someone in that message . I did not realize it was the most important one of all.
Blessings
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
To All, The thread I started to honor my mentor Bill Arnsbarger reminds me that we all are mortal and our time will come as well. I will be 69 towards the end of this year, and I want to take a moment to thank those who over the yrs. took the time to teach me the " science " of football as well as those who when I was flying to Las Vegas to apply that science to sportsbetting took the time to teach me a few things that reap dividends even to this day. I'm very thankful for all those who took the time to answer the multitude of questions I had , and I thank the Lord for giving me the wisdom to apply that knowledge to improve my methodology. I will not mention those professional bettors by name , but my thanks and deep gratitude go out to them for pointing me in the right direction. You have been a blessing to me. Thank you. To those on this forum, hopefully I've been able to share some of this with you and provided you with some insight as to my learning process. I hope this forum will make the most of every opportunity to help and support those who earnestly seek to become better at sportsbetting.
I wish all good health and great success this year.
I knew I forgot someone in that message . I did not realize it was the most important one of all.
Hey Wise, haven't seen you in the MLB forums lately. Now I know why, as I see you've been hanging out and dropping knowledge here in the CFB forum.
Looks like you got a GOOD READ on the Baylor and Miss St spreads early one. -20 and -13 are incredible value, as I see them at -34 and -23 in most books now. I wish I stumbled across this forum earlier but I've been focusing on MLB mainly. CFB isn't really my thing. I've watched more and more games in the past few years as a casual fan, but still a novice when it comes to capping teams. Kinda hard to keep up with the constantly changing rosters every year. I'll pick my spots this year and check in with your threads for insight throughout the season.
Hope all is well and Best of luck this season good sir
0
Hey Wise, haven't seen you in the MLB forums lately. Now I know why, as I see you've been hanging out and dropping knowledge here in the CFB forum.
Looks like you got a GOOD READ on the Baylor and Miss St spreads early one. -20 and -13 are incredible value, as I see them at -34 and -23 in most books now. I wish I stumbled across this forum earlier but I've been focusing on MLB mainly. CFB isn't really my thing. I've watched more and more games in the past few years as a casual fan, but still a novice when it comes to capping teams. Kinda hard to keep up with the constantly changing rosters every year. I'll pick my spots this year and check in with your threads for insight throughout the season.
Hope all is well and Best of luck this season good sir
Hey Bud, Good to hear from you. I'm in full CFB mode now as this is where I do my best work. I'm looking forward to the season getting underway. Please feel free to stop by anytime. I hope MLB is treating you well.
Best of Luck , Bud
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Hey Bud, Good to hear from you. I'm in full CFB mode now as this is where I do my best work. I'm looking forward to the season getting underway. Please feel free to stop by anytime. I hope MLB is treating you well.
I've got a little TCU - 13 1/2 in my Week 1 portfolio.
I think one has to be careful at what price they pay to wager on TCU in this game as they have lost a number of starters on defense , and have been less than stellar on D in road games. You have only to look back to last year vs lowly Kansas to see what I'm referring to.
Best of Luck to All
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
I've got a little TCU - 13 1/2 in my Week 1 portfolio.
I think one has to be careful at what price they pay to wager on TCU in this game as they have lost a number of starters on defense , and have been less than stellar on D in road games. You have only to look back to last year vs lowly Kansas to see what I'm referring to.
I think one has to be careful at what price they pay to wager on TCU in this game as they have lost a number of starters on defense , and have been less than stellar on D in road games. You have only to look back to last year vs lowly Kansas to see what I'm referring to.
Best of Luck to All
I say this because TCU - 13 1/2 is the top end of my risk profile for this matchup , and this is a very small wager for me.if it is bet down further, I would consider adding to the position.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
I think one has to be careful at what price they pay to wager on TCU in this game as they have lost a number of starters on defense , and have been less than stellar on D in road games. You have only to look back to last year vs lowly Kansas to see what I'm referring to.
Best of Luck to All
I say this because TCU - 13 1/2 is the top end of my risk profile for this matchup , and this is a very small wager for me.if it is bet down further, I would consider adding to the position.
Well, All but the Wynn has a line up now and it does not look like everyone is rushing out to buy at these prices. Be patient bettors, wait for a decent number before you jump in there. That is your edge.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Well, All but the Wynn has a line up now and it does not look like everyone is rushing out to buy at these prices. Be patient bettors, wait for a decent number before you jump in there. That is your edge.
I hope you are doing well. I am still tweaking my week 1 selections.
Baylor is locked. That will be a blood bath for Baylor backers if for some reason Morris' Mighty Mites step up at home...with the P Bennett angle (former SMU HC, now DC at Baylor, and with Briles being a bit of a prick, I don't see a SMU cover. If some how SMU scores 2 TD's, Baylor will just score two more TD's. Baylor has no lookahead and there is indeed a recruiting angle to this matchup (DFW dominance)
I am curious on your thoughts on Kentucky in week 1. Solid QB in Towles, outstanding passing game, lost Dupree, but Stoops seems to be recruiting better. UK did lose its last 6 games in the SEC, but that was a brutal run. I think Stoops is the right man, and UK will want to redeem itself in front of the home fans against a LL team that is well coached, yet, tends to get blown out by Power Conference Teams. They will come into Lexington with a new QB and only 12 starters. The chalk is currently UK -15.5. Do you have any thoughts on this game. I will assume it is outside your risk profile, but it would helpful if you can provide a generaral perspective on this matchup. Thanks in advance.
LonghornHoosier
0
Wise
I hope you are doing well. I am still tweaking my week 1 selections.
Baylor is locked. That will be a blood bath for Baylor backers if for some reason Morris' Mighty Mites step up at home...with the P Bennett angle (former SMU HC, now DC at Baylor, and with Briles being a bit of a prick, I don't see a SMU cover. If some how SMU scores 2 TD's, Baylor will just score two more TD's. Baylor has no lookahead and there is indeed a recruiting angle to this matchup (DFW dominance)
I am curious on your thoughts on Kentucky in week 1. Solid QB in Towles, outstanding passing game, lost Dupree, but Stoops seems to be recruiting better. UK did lose its last 6 games in the SEC, but that was a brutal run. I think Stoops is the right man, and UK will want to redeem itself in front of the home fans against a LL team that is well coached, yet, tends to get blown out by Power Conference Teams. They will come into Lexington with a new QB and only 12 starters. The chalk is currently UK -15.5. Do you have any thoughts on this game. I will assume it is outside your risk profile, but it would helpful if you can provide a generaral perspective on this matchup. Thanks in advance.
Baylor -20 ?....is essentially saying (assuming Bears are about the same) that SMU is as good as: Toledo ...Nevada...NW...or Fresno *whomever hung that opener should be fired immediately...sportsbook however should receive much love
IF...we say the Ponies are 3-5 pts better week 1...that still gives us a line of 35 or so * NOTE: there is NOTHING to suggest this will be anything but an absolute slaughter... *if considering laying a large sum here...maybe check and see if Briles and Morris aren't big buddies....seems like Morris followed him at Stephenville HS *Pony learning curve under Morris? **changing D from 3-4 > 4-3...AND....June Jones and Morris DO NOT run the same offense...JJ being one of the few run-n-shoot guys left...Morris not a pure air raid guy/more of a Malzahn type....(option football).....they have similarities sure...but WR keys / QB reads very different
Miss St -13 ?....also about 2TD off (ASSuming MSU is 3-5 pts WORSE)...this also suggests that SMiss is about as good as the same teams listed above (NOPE) note: Mullen beats the teams he's supposed to...and usually loses to those he should too vs .750 teams he's 1-22 SU / 6-17 ATS...vs < .750 teams he's 37-3 SU / 24-12 ATS
*last 2 years he's had LSU look-a-head issues...2014 -14' at S Alabama (won 35-3)...2013..... -13 vs Troy (won 62-7) 2010 with Auburn on deck beat Memphis 49-7 (-21')...and 2011 same situation won 59-14 (-30)
BA, I believe that out of those " openers " BOL posted, they accumulated far more in new account deposits than they have " at risk " at those prices.
BA
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
Baylor -20 ?....is essentially saying (assuming Bears are about the same) that SMU is as good as: Toledo ...Nevada...NW...or Fresno *whomever hung that opener should be fired immediately...sportsbook however should receive much love
IF...we say the Ponies are 3-5 pts better week 1...that still gives us a line of 35 or so * NOTE: there is NOTHING to suggest this will be anything but an absolute slaughter... *if considering laying a large sum here...maybe check and see if Briles and Morris aren't big buddies....seems like Morris followed him at Stephenville HS *Pony learning curve under Morris? **changing D from 3-4 > 4-3...AND....June Jones and Morris DO NOT run the same offense...JJ being one of the few run-n-shoot guys left...Morris not a pure air raid guy/more of a Malzahn type....(option football).....they have similarities sure...but WR keys / QB reads very different
Miss St -13 ?....also about 2TD off (ASSuming MSU is 3-5 pts WORSE)...this also suggests that SMiss is about as good as the same teams listed above (NOPE) note: Mullen beats the teams he's supposed to...and usually loses to those he should too vs .750 teams he's 1-22 SU / 6-17 ATS...vs < .750 teams he's 37-3 SU / 24-12 ATS
*last 2 years he's had LSU look-a-head issues...2014 -14' at S Alabama (won 35-3)...2013..... -13 vs Troy (won 62-7) 2010 with Auburn on deck beat Memphis 49-7 (-21')...and 2011 same situation won 59-14 (-30)
BA, I believe that out of those " openers " BOL posted, they accumulated far more in new account deposits than they have " at risk " at those prices.
I hope you are doing well. I am still tweaking my week 1 selections.
Baylor is locked. That will be a blood bath for Baylor backers if for some reason Morris' Mighty Mites step up at home...with the P Bennett angle (former SMU HC, now DC at Baylor, and with Briles being a bit of a prick, I don't see a SMU cover. If some how SMU scores 2 TD's, Baylor will just score two more TD's. Baylor has no lookahead and there is indeed a recruiting angle to this matchup (DFW dominance)
I am curious on your thoughts on Kentucky in week 1. Solid QB in Towles, outstanding passing game, lost Dupree, but Stoops seems to be recruiting better. UK did lose its last 6 games in the SEC, but that was a brutal run. I think Stoops is the right man, and UK will want to redeem itself in front of the home fans against a LL team that is well coached, yet, tends to get blown out by Power Conference Teams. They will come into Lexington with a new QB and only 12 starters. The chalk is currently UK -15.5. Do you have any thoughts on this game. I will assume it is outside your risk profile, but it would helpful if you can provide a generaral perspective on this matchup. Thanks in advance.
LH, I like Kentucky but not at this price. Granted , La Laf. lost Broadway to graduation who was a significant portion of their offense. He was not a student of the passing game however and that was problematic for the Cajuns. This year the Cajuns have an established running game although they do lose a few top O linemen. Haack in limited duty last year put up some good passing numbers. If Hudspeth focuses on the passing game to compliment the run game, they could prove to be somewhat of a challenge to the defenses they will face this season. I'm not saying that they will be a challenge to Kentucky in week 1, but since I do not know what to expect from them , I would pass on them at that price.
LH,
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
Wise
I hope you are doing well. I am still tweaking my week 1 selections.
Baylor is locked. That will be a blood bath for Baylor backers if for some reason Morris' Mighty Mites step up at home...with the P Bennett angle (former SMU HC, now DC at Baylor, and with Briles being a bit of a prick, I don't see a SMU cover. If some how SMU scores 2 TD's, Baylor will just score two more TD's. Baylor has no lookahead and there is indeed a recruiting angle to this matchup (DFW dominance)
I am curious on your thoughts on Kentucky in week 1. Solid QB in Towles, outstanding passing game, lost Dupree, but Stoops seems to be recruiting better. UK did lose its last 6 games in the SEC, but that was a brutal run. I think Stoops is the right man, and UK will want to redeem itself in front of the home fans against a LL team that is well coached, yet, tends to get blown out by Power Conference Teams. They will come into Lexington with a new QB and only 12 starters. The chalk is currently UK -15.5. Do you have any thoughts on this game. I will assume it is outside your risk profile, but it would helpful if you can provide a generaral perspective on this matchup. Thanks in advance.
LH, I like Kentucky but not at this price. Granted , La Laf. lost Broadway to graduation who was a significant portion of their offense. He was not a student of the passing game however and that was problematic for the Cajuns. This year the Cajuns have an established running game although they do lose a few top O linemen. Haack in limited duty last year put up some good passing numbers. If Hudspeth focuses on the passing game to compliment the run game, they could prove to be somewhat of a challenge to the defenses they will face this season. I'm not saying that they will be a challenge to Kentucky in week 1, but since I do not know what to expect from them , I would pass on them at that price.
No problem. I think that in every selection made , a thorough analysis of a QB's stats can tell you a lot about a teams capability to successfully execute the offensive philosophy of the OC. or do they have to " shrink' the offense to account for the QB's limitations and / or the defensive scheme that they will face.
LH
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
thanks Wise!
No problem. I think that in every selection made , a thorough analysis of a QB's stats can tell you a lot about a teams capability to successfully execute the offensive philosophy of the OC. or do they have to " shrink' the offense to account for the QB's limitations and / or the defensive scheme that they will face.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
