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2015 Week 1 College Football selections

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

Wise

degrading  comments on some offshore book?    really, lighten up bro.  this is anonymous college football betting forum.    I have graciously taken your criticism in the past.    you seem to get upset when anyone questions your perspective (see the extremely marginal University of Houston Defense from 2014 that you went to the mat for when I expressed skepticism.   that's why we exchange information on covers, to hopefully obtain perspectives that help us all get better, to defeat the enemy, the books... 
  
its just a hypothesis.    these books make money on volume, which is driven by marketing.   alternatively,  the BOL early line on baylor was probably and simplistically set due to the new Baylor QB, the perception that Baylor's D has not improved, Morris impact, and the fact that the game is at SMU.    Maybe it wasn't intentional, maybe just an open with a lot of restrictions to protect the book.    With regard to Miss St, they have Prescott, Wilson and not much else from an experience standpoint.    But, they have an extremely talented team led by a very good coach.   Its just my opinion, and not a dig on BOL or you...

I meant disrespect to the BOL or you.    You have taught me a lot to make me a better capper and I appreciate that.   But, you should be open for feedback, whether you respect the poster or not.   

With regard to your dog dig, when I find a good one, I will make that bet...   As you have taught me, its all about value.     And I plan to show you this season that your mentorship has made an impact...Peace My Friend...
Wise






LH, Sorry if you took my comments personally . it
was not meant as a personal attack but to defend
any Sportsbook that has the guts to post an
opening line on week 1 of College football season.
Coaching and roster changes make this a huge
challenge every year and throw in motivation as
well. I see more teams that do not play at a high
level week 1  due to week 2 matchups that have a
a higher priority. Times are changing. Three years
ago teams played 3 stiffs and then went right into
conference play. It's not like that any more as now
there is much more emphasis in SOS. Week 1's
I find are becoming much more difficult to cap.
I was not making a " dig " on betting dogs but
trying to say that at these prices, that side of the
play is getting more attractive.

Best of Luck to you this season , Bud

   
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:



      2015 College Football Selection Record

      Record to Date             0 of  0  = 000 %
      Bankroll to Date   =      100 % of Original Bankroll
 

      Week 1 Selections

  Baylor     - 20  - 110   8  %  of current bankroll at risk

  Miss St.   - 13  - 110   8  %  of current bankroll at risk



   




Best of Luck to All          
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Posted: #53
Wise

from my previous post...I meant to say "I meant no disrespect to you or BOL".   I think you know that.

I agree with you on the lookaheads and the increased value of dogs early in the season.   you know I am a indeed a typical square fav backer, but I know that dogs will be on my radar starting in week 6 for the remainder of the season.     With regard to your perspective, I think Tenn is a perfect example.    They are well coached, but they are young, and don't have the maturity to give 100% against BGSU in week 1 on a neutral field.    Plus, BGSU has the ability to score, which is never good if you are backing a young team as a 3 TD Fav.     Sure Tenn will be fired up, and have their way for a while, but BGSU will not stop trying to score for 60 minutes, thus leaving open the possibility of a back door cover.    

I have a already identified some week 2 circumstantial leans (Wisc v Miami - Ohio, after the loss to Bama, trying to get Christ 1st win.   Same thing goes for Michigan against Oregon St (if Mich loses in week 1 at Utah).     Oregon St has a new coach and has lost a ton playing against a hungry Harbaugh coached team, maybe looking for his first UM win at home as no more than a 17-18 pt favorite.  Granted, the books and bettors will consider this info, and drive up the spread if you back the fav but I think Wisc and Mich will be extremely focussed in week 2...your thoughts?

Again, I wish you all the best.   Keep busting my balls if you think I need it.   Have a great weekend!

LonghornHoosier


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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

Wise

from my previous post...I meant to say "I meant no disrespect to you or BOL".   I think you know that.

I agree with you on the lookaheads and the increased value of dogs early in the season.   you know I am a indeed a typical square fav backer, but I know that dogs will be on my radar starting in week 6 for the remainder of the season.     With regard to your perspective, I think Tenn is a perfect example.    They are well coached, but they are young, and don't have the maturity to give 100% against BGSU in week 1 on a neutral field.    Plus, BGSU has the ability to score, which is never good if you are backing a young team as a 3 TD Fav.     Sure Tenn will be fired up, and have their way for a while, but BGSU will not stop trying to score for 60 minutes, thus leaving open the possibility of a back door cover.    

I have a already identified some week 2 circumstantial leans (Wisc v Miami - Ohio, after the loss to Bama, trying to get Christ 1st win.   Same thing goes for Michigan against Oregon St (if Mich loses in week 1 at Utah).     Oregon St has a new coach and has lost a ton playing against a hungry Harbaugh coached team, maybe looking for his first UM win at home as no more than a 17-18 pt favorite.  Granted, the books and bettors will consider this info, and drive up the spread if you back the fav but I think Wisc and Mich will be extremely focussed in week 2...your thoughts?

Again, I wish you all the best.   Keep busting my balls if you think I need it.   Have a great weekend!

LonghornHoosier







LH,        
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

Wise

from my previous post...I meant to say "I meant no disrespect to you or BOL".   I think you know that.

I agree with you on the lookaheads and the increased value of dogs early in the season.   you know I am a indeed a typical square fav backer, but I know that dogs will be on my radar starting in week 6 for the remainder of the season.     With regard to your perspective, I think Tenn is a perfect example.    They are well coached, but they are young, and don't have the maturity to give 100% against BGSU in week 1 on a neutral field.    Plus, BGSU has the ability to score, which is never good if you are backing a young team as a 3 TD Fav.     Sure Tenn will be fired up, and have their way for a while, but BGSU will not stop trying to score for 60 minutes, thus leaving open the possibility of a back door cover.    

I have a already identified some week 2 circumstantial leans (Wisc v Miami - Ohio, after the loss to Bama, trying to get Christ 1st win.   Same thing goes for Michigan against Oregon St (if Mich loses in week 1 at Utah).     Oregon St has a new coach and has lost a ton playing against a hungry Harbaugh coached team, maybe looking for his first UM win at home as no more than a 17-18 pt favorite.  Granted, the books and bettors will consider this info, and drive up the spread if you back the fav but I think Wisc and Mich will be extremely focussed in week 2...your thoughts?

Again, I wish you all the best.   Keep busting my balls if you think I need it.   Have a great weekend!

LonghornHoosier






I think it is wise to see how both there teams do
in Week 1, as bettors will be pounding them all year
I have some bets down on Week 2 already and will
be looking to expand on those positions. Michigan
and Wisconsin are not included in those that I've
wagered on so far in week 2 , and I have some
Utah - 1 for Week 1.

LH  
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

Wise

from my previous post...I meant to say "I meant no disrespect to you or BOL".   I think you know that.

I agree with you on the lookaheads and the increased value of dogs early in the season.   you know I am a indeed a typical square fav backer, but I know that dogs will be on my radar starting in week 6 for the remainder of the season.     With regard to your perspective, I think Tenn is a perfect example.    They are well coached, but they are young, and don't have the maturity to give 100% against BGSU in week 1 on a neutral field.    Plus, BGSU has the ability to score, which is never good if you are backing a young team as a 3 TD Fav.     Sure Tenn will be fired up, and have their way for a while, but BGSU will not stop trying to score for 60 minutes, thus leaving open the possibility of a back door cover.    

I have a already identified some week 2 circumstantial leans (Wisc v Miami - Ohio, after the loss to Bama, trying to get Christ 1st win.   Same thing goes for Michigan against Oregon St (if Mich loses in week 1 at Utah).     Oregon St has a new coach and has lost a ton playing against a hungry Harbaugh coached team, maybe looking for his first UM win at home as no more than a 17-18 pt favorite.  Granted, the books and bettors will consider this info, and drive up the spread if you back the fav but I think Wisc and Mich will be extremely focussed in week 2...your thoughts?

Again, I wish you all the best.   Keep busting my balls if you think I need it.   Have a great weekend!

LonghornHoosier





LH, I find dogs to be a good play earlier rather than later in the season for two reasons.
Bettors backing faves well past their point of value
Dogs lose value as a history develops on them.

Points to ponder my friend.   
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Posted: #57
Looking forward to all totals being posted as I see
some value there in Week 1.
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Posted: #58

Wise,  Nice to see intelligent discourse early.  It'll change when the season starts so give me your best plays for RSW.  I like to have a few  small bets to keep every week interesting. Small plays are fun because they keep me interested in the team I chose but also the team they play comes into comes into the mix. Good chance to learn and study teams I might not be on to. 

 

  USC +8.5 was a play for me and I guess TD21 likes them also. 

 

GL,   Doc

 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:

Wise,  Nice to see intelligent discourse early.  It'll change when the season starts so give me your best plays for RSW.  I like to have a few  small bets to keep every week interesting. Small plays are fun because they keep me interested in the team I chose but also the team they play comes into comes into the mix. Good chance to learn and study teams I might not be on to. 

 

  USC +8.5 was a play for me and I guess TD21 likes them also. 

 

GL,   Doc





Hey Doc , Good to hear from you.. Hope all is well.
I typically do not do RSW's as I would rather turn
my capital every week rather than tie it up season
long and risk exposure to injuries to key players.
I typically wager using an optimum bet strategy
( Kelly Criterion ) so I want my bank compounding
for me each week.
I'm in my office capping this weekend. If I see a play
on RSW's that I think looks good , I"ll gladly post
for you.

Doc  
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Posted: #60
FCS lines r starting to trickle out on 5D
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by LITTLE_KENNY:

FCS lines r starting to trickle out on 5D





Thanks Bud       
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by LITTLE_KENNY:

FCS lines r starting to trickle out on 5D

LITTLE_KENNY,
     Great to know!  Thanks.  I was wondering about these FCS games this morning.  They're out much earlier than last year.  Already hit the max on one play.  Need the line to move slightly and I'll play it again.


TD
 
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Posted: #63
Nice respectable lines so far.Man,I get so pumped when i wait for the lines to come out all summer, and then there the lines u expect,luv it,luv FCS money!
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

Wise

degrading  comments on some offshore book?    really, lighten up bro.  this is anonymous college football betting forum.    I have graciously taken your criticism in the past.    you seem to get upset when anyone questions your perspective (see the extremely marginal University of Houston Defense from 2014 that you went to the mat for when I expressed skepticism.   that's why we exchange information on covers, to hopefully obtain perspectives that help us all get better, to defeat the enemy, the books... 
  
its just a hypothesis.    these books make money on volume, which is driven by marketing.   alternatively,  the BOL early line on baylor was probably and simplistically set due to the new Baylor QB, the perception that Baylor's D has not improved, Morris impact, and the fact that the game is at SMU.    Maybe it wasn't intentional, maybe just an open with a lot of restrictions to protect the book.    With regard to Miss St, they have Prescott, Wilson and not much else from an experience standpoint.    But, they have an extremely talented team led by a very good coach.   Its just my opinion, and not a dig on BOL or you...

I meant disrespect to the BOL or you.    You have taught me a lot to make me a better capper and I appreciate that.   But, you should be open for feedback, whether you respect the poster or not.   

With regard to your dog dig, when I find a good one, I will make that bet...   As you have taught me, its all about value.     And I plan to show you this season that your mentorship has made an impact...Peace My Friend...
Wise






LH, For the record Houston lost 27 - 7. They lost
however because of their " O " as in O'Korn who
had no td's, 4 Int's and a QBR of 10.7

You forgot to mention that. 

LH    


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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





LH, For the record Houston lost 27 - 7. They lost
however because of their " O " as in O'Korn who
had no td's, 4 Int's and a QBR of 10.7

You forgot to mention that. 

LH    






In 2014 , The Houston Cougars finished the season
ranked 25th nationally in defensive efficiency.

For the record.

LH 
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Posted: #66
Baylor -20 ?....is essentially saying (assuming Bears are about the same) that SMU is as good as:
  Toledo ...Nevada...NW...or Fresno
 
 *whomever hung that opener should be fired immediately...sportsbook however should receive much love 

 IF...we say the Ponies are 3-5 pts better week 1...that still gives us a line of 35 or so
  * NOTE: there is NOTHING to suggest this will be anything but an absolute slaughter...
        *if considering laying a large sum here...maybe check and see if Briles and Morris aren't big buddies....seems like Morris followed him at Stephenville HS
        *Pony learning curve under Morris?
        **changing D from 3-4 > 4-3...AND....June Jones and Morris DO NOT run the same offense...JJ being one of the few run-n-shoot guys left...Morris not a pure air raid guy/more of a Malzahn type....(option football).....they have similarities sure...but WR keys / QB reads very different

Miss St -13 ?....also about 2TD off (ASSuming MSU is 3-5 pts WORSE)...this also suggests that SMiss is about as good as the same teams listed above (NOPE)
  note:  Mullen beats the teams he's supposed to...and usually loses to those he should too
         vs .750 teams he's 1-22 SU / 6-17 ATS...vs < .750 teams he's 37-3 SU / 24-12 ATS

           *last 2 years he's had LSU look-a-head issues...2014 -14' at S Alabama (won 35-3)...2013..... -13 vs Troy (won 62-7)
              2010 with Auburn on deck beat Memphis 49-7 (-21')...and 2011 same situation won 59-14 (-30)       
 
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Posted: #67


posting these blow-out winners you know....
  *is not fair at all to our pal LH......akin to throwing chum to the Great White.....< salute to shark week....
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

Baylor -20 ?....is essentially saying (assuming Bears are about the same) that SMU is as good as:
  Toledo ...Nevada...NW...or Fresno
 
 *whomever hung that opener should be fired immediately...sportsbook however should receive much love 

 IF...we say the Ponies are 3-5 pts better week 1...that still gives us a line of 35 or so
  * NOTE: there is NOTHING to suggest this will be anything but an absolute slaughter...
        *if considering laying a large sum here...maybe check and see if Briles and Morris aren't big buddies....seems like Morris followed him at Stephenville HS
        *Pony learning curve under Morris?
        **changing D from 3-4 > 4-3...AND....June Jones and Morris DO NOT run the same offense...JJ being one of the few run-n-shoot guys left...Morris not a pure air raid guy/more of a Malzahn type....(option football).....they have similarities sure...but WR keys / QB reads very different

Miss St -13 ?....also about 2TD off (ASSuming MSU is 3-5 pts WORSE)...this also suggests that SMiss is about as good as the same teams listed above (NOPE)
  note:  Mullen beats the teams he's supposed to...and usually loses to those he should too
         vs .750 teams he's 1-22 SU / 6-17 ATS...vs < .750 teams he's 37-3 SU / 24-12 ATS

           *last 2 years he's had LSU look-a-head issues...2014 -14' at S Alabama (won 35-3)...2013..... -13 vs Troy (won 62-7)
              2010 with Auburn on deck beat Memphis 49-7 (-21')...and 2011 same situation won 59-14 (-30)       
 




Hey Bud, Welcome Back from hibernation.
Yeah, I was pleasantly surprised at these two as
all the rest of their openers seemed right in line
for the most part. I did take a moment to make sure
Seth Russell was OK or hadn't been arrested for
stealing  ribs or something.
I actually thought something was up and waited a
little while to pull the trigger on these.
Then my next thought was " should I put the house
on this one "   
I'm just glad to get  what I allocated for Week 1 bets
down on some solid numbers. Typically I would
wager 16 % of bankroll on Week 1 bets , but I made
an adjustment to the multiplier for spread offenses
and I didn't want to go crazy. There will be plenty of
opportunities.

Welcome Back Bud  

BA        
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



posting these blow-out winners you know....
  *is not fair at all to our pal LH......akin to throwing chum to the Great White.....< salute to shark week....



BA , I actually thought I got such a great deal that I
shouldn't post it with this crowd. They all probably
hate me now. I just happened to be in my office as
they released the lines. I'll take it. 

BA        
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Posted: #70
LH- you CAN bet Texas games....as discussed LY
  *Horns 9-4 UNDER 2014
 
$$  Strong 38-25-1 UNDER for career....20-12-1 at home
      *at HOME - 11-22 ATS / 22-9 ATS AWAY
         usually weak favorite / stronger dog.........
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Posted: #71
ya that JDNmoney was attacked viciously each week for posting early BOL plays....while most everybody else was sleeping or doing NFL stuff..........



The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #72
The summer intern at BOL got fired after posting those openers. 
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

ya that JDNmoney was attacked viciously each week for posting early BOL plays....while most everybody else was sleeping or doing NFL stuff..........







I remember those days Bud. My point exactly. 


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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

ya that JDNmoney was attacked viciously each week for posting early BOL plays....while most everybody else was sleeping or doing NFL stuff..........








That's the prime reason that I don't post my plays
on this forum. In fact . I was getting the same lines
that JDN was getting and by not posting mine , he
was taking all the heat. 

To JDN     
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Posted: #75
Hey guys I'm thinking about hammering Tcu, Baylor and Miss St. week one! Any suggestions gentleman??
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