2018-19 BOWL GUIDE

last 3 years....

one unit    26-11
smaller      33-27

1H                          9-5   
2H / IG                 18-7
  *props / quarters  24-3




Top plays

UAB*
Ga Tech  -2'


one  unit

Iowa St  +7
Oregon  P
Texas  A&M  -3**
Texas  +13



smaller

SDSU  +5
Cuse  +7'
Virginia  +7
NW  +7'


leans / waiting

NTX
Ariz St
E Mich?
Herd
WF
Army
Purdue
Michigan !??
Bama
Tree
Mizzou

Gracias Senor bookassassin! 

BA - last season during bowls - you spoke about lookahead and mentioned BUFF b/c same coach, same QB, same OC, and they "barely" missed bowl game.  They did GREAT this year.

BA

BOL...Bookie...have a Great Bowl Season..Hammer em..!!

  Good stuff as always BA

Oregon jumped out at me.

2017   fav 20-20 ATS....OU  22-18
  * dog won 16 games SU...SU winner 36-4 ATS

2016   fav 14-27 ATS...OU 17-24
  * dog won 15 games SU...SU winner 29-12 ATS

2015   fav 25-16 ATS....OU 26-15
  *dog won 12 games SU...SU winner 37-4 ATS

2014    fav 15-24 ATS...OU 23-15-1
      * dog won 21 games SU...SU winner 36-3 ATS

2013    fav 19-16 ATS...O/U 14-21
      * dog won 13 games SU...SU winner 31-4 ATS

2012    fav 21-14 ATS...O/U 15-20
      * dog won 10 games SU...SU winner 32-3 ATS

2011    fav 18-15 ATS...O/U 14-20
      * dog won 11 games SU...SU winner 30-4 ATS

2010    fav 20-13 ATS...O/U 17-16
      * dog won 10 games SU...SU winner 29-4 ATS  

Last  7 yrs

AAC     13-20     14-19
 
ACC     35-35      35-35

B10       29-33      30-32

B12       27-24      23-28

CUSA   26-15       25-16

IND         10-7         7-10

MAC      13-25     16-22
     
MTW      20-25     21-24

P12        28-20     26-32

SEC       46-29     44-31

SB          15-11    13-13

Thor24.......Wahoo.....Urban............thanks boys / have a great bowl season................

thanks CHAMP! b o l too!

Thank You for your work this year. Always a must read  . 

$$     Why not wait until the game starts.....because one of  most predictable things I've noticed about bowl games....
      * is that a team is READY to play......or they ain't......especially in the EARLY games
       
Seldom does a team 'find it...once the game starts

IF they do....it's usually because a dominant player (QB) is determined to not go out a loser
 eg.     John Football / RG3.....2 of my largest ever bets BTW


   *   before 12/25    ONCE ...in 39 games 
   *   12/26-30           3X.........in 46 games
  note: dog only 3X (Frogs / Ducks...Clem / Bama '16...SCaro / Mich)
* before 12/25      fav was down / tied 9X......came back to win the game ONCE (Quinton Flowers / game tied at half too)
             * dog down / tied 7X.....NONE came back

* 12/26 > 29          fav down 6X.....came back 3X
                                 * dog down 14X......won game ONCE (highly motivated NMSU)

* > 12/30               fav down 5X.......won 2X......Bama / Georgia
                                * dog down 5X....won 2


2016

* before 12/25     fav down / tied  5X......won ONCE (SMiss QB N Mullens vs ULL D)
                              * dog down 10X....won 2 (App St / SDSU)

* 12/26-12/30         fav down 11X......won 3
                                * dog down 11X.....won twice

* > 12/31               fav up all 9 games.....dog won 2X (D Watson both !!!)
 


1H / 2H / in-game notes

2017

before 12/25
  * fav were 6-8 SU/ ATS / 8-6 OU

1H   fav went  6-7-1 SU / 5-9 ATS / 6-8 OU
2H   fav went  7-6-1 SU / 6-8 ATS / 5-9 OU
    
  NOTE:  only ONCE...did SU winner of 1H ...not win 2H too (ties to winner)
                 

12/25 > 12/29
  * fav -  13-3 SU /10-6 ATS / 9-7 OU

1H   fav-  10-5-1 / 10-6 / 8-6
2H  fav-   11-4-1 / 9-7/  6-8

   NOTE:  now 7X the 2H winner changed
                    * 7X the total flipped as well

> 12/30
  * fav - 5-5 / 4-6 /  5-5

1H  fav - 5-5 / 5-5 / 4-6
2H  fav - 3-5-2 / 4-6 / 5-5    

  NOTE:  only 4X did 1H winner win 2H too

before 12/25
  * fav were 3-10 ATS / 8 of 13 went UNDER

1H   fav were 7-4-2 SU / 7-6 ATS / 5-8 OU
2H   fav were 4-8-1 SU / 3-10 ATS / 8-5 OU

12/26-30
  * fav were 5-14 ATS / 10/19 went OVER

1H   fav were 9-8-2 SU / 6-13 ATS / 9-10 OU
2H   fav were 9-10/ 7-12 / 10-9

after 12/31 (use 12/31 instead of 1/1 because big games on NYE)
  * fav were 5-4 ATS / 7/9 went UNDER

1H   fav went 9-0 SU / 7-2 ATS / 1-8 OU
2H   fav 5-4/3-6/2-7



2015

before 12/25
  *overall   Favorites were 7-5 ATS / 8 of 12 went OVER
        note:   only 2X did DOG cover...but not WIN the game (Ohio / NMX)

1H     Fav were 6-4-2 SU / 6-6 ATS / 6-6 OU >
2H     Fav were 9-3 SU / 8-4 ATS / 8-4 OUn


12/26-12/30
  *overall Fav were 10-6 ATS / 9-7 OU
      note:  only ONCE did the DOG cover and not WIN SU (Tulsa)

1H    Fav were 10-3-3 SU / 8-8 ATS / 10-6 OU
2H    Fav were 9-3-4 SU / 8-8 ATS / 5-11 OU


after 12/31
  *overall Fav were 8-5 ATS / 8-5 OU
       note:  only ONCE did dog cover and not win (Clemson)

1H    Fav went 10-2-1 SU / 9-4 ATS / 7-6 OU
2H    Fav went 6-7 SU / 5-8 ATS / 9-4 OU

STRATEGY


1)  JUST BET THE WINNER
  *sure easier said than done...but the winner also covers in bowls about 90% of the time
   *don't forget this when doing your bowl pick-em contests....and especially when playing DOGS


2)  AVOID or FADE

    * average teams that FINISHED strong.....just the opposite of what most think...often these teams revert back to their old self after a long lay-off
    *TURNOVER prone teams..the lay-off ain't gonna fix it
    *NEVER play....a 'bubble-burst' team...just move on to the next game
    * the bowl virgin...their GOAL of just making a bowl have been met...the bowl is more of a REWARD / VACATION
    *cold weather teams....with no indoor facility...tough to stay in top condition if you can't work outside
       AND...warm weather teams...playing in cold weather
    *the interim HC with no shot at the job...where most coaches are leaving...the coaches are spending all their time looking for another job (if they wait it's too late)
    *the team with the extra long lay-off....vs the team with a shorter one....esp if the former is an offensive team....the latter defensive
    *SENIOR heavy teams off a disapponting year...they often are not looking for redemption...but to chase azz and get drunk...
    * the Heisman winner...all the BS takes a ton of time away from game prep....plus everyone telling him how awesome he is...while his opponents are sick of getting asked...how do you ever plan to stop this awesome individual?
    
3)   PLAY ON

  *** the 'good' team EMBARRASSED in last year's bowl...esp if returning to same bowl / close to home  
  ** the team that (seems to be)...on the RISE...meaning they really need a nice win to keep the MoMENTUM going  
  *the team with the better QB...
  *the team with the better D / special teams / ability to leverage the field in their favor
  *a good team that might have finished poorly.....again the opposite of what most think....the key is the strong team will emerge much improved...and now offers great value maybe
  *a senior heavy team....IF MOTIVATED...avoid if in a lesser bowl maybe....and/or in a party city...
  *the team with the interim HC...that the players want to get hired...if the guy has a real shot                 
  *the team from the tougher conference..that played a tougher schedule

4)  FOLLOW THE LINE MOVEMENT

      *unlike the reg season (usually)...play on instead of fade...
       BECAUSE...
       ANYTIME A LINE HAS MOVED MORE THAN 4 POINTS TOWARDS A GIVEN TEAM...THAT TEAM HAS COVERED 64% OF THE TIME
          *note:  for totals about 56%....since 1992

Thank you for the detailed analysis! This is extremely helpful. Will definitely use as a reference. 

Awesome, but would expect nothing less from you.  

Awesome info,BA.....

Wow! You need to write a damn book BA! Best bowl thread on the Net.

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