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2018-19 BOWL GUIDE

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Posted: #26

Thanks old pro an_praise

 
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Posted: #27
Amazing stuff as always. Thank you for the tips again this year!
 
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Posted: #28
Awesome info. Thanks bro
 
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Posted: #29
thanks boys.......................

was looking at Duke anyway....Temple HC new man at Ga Tech
  * added at +144 on ML / +3'.....<  still at BM
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Posted: #30

Thanks BA ......  timely advice , was able to catch both .... 

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by UnclePuff:

Thanks BA ......  timely advice , was able to catch both .... 


there he is .....hope all is well buddy .................

yep I think that's a good one.....Duke (should) regroup as they do EVERY YEAR under Cutcliffe.....fast start > late season fade (or crash) as injuries mount

  $  Big Picture?.....they beat Army by 20....NW by 14....GT by 14.....Miami by 8......that team is the one we should see here
    * this # is based on last game 'give up' vs a hungry WF + Temple late season surge

The numbers are tough to justify....but they probably should be a slight favorite here.....early / mid season they would've been favored by 6 / 3 or so.....I would think the line moves that way.....maybe favored by game time?.......Duke QB Jones needs a big day too....vs a TOUGH pass D
  * tough to see the Owls fully focused here with HC leaving after his 2nd year 

Duke is always a great team to bet out of conference / bowls....
   $  covering 21 of last 27.....BY 9.6 points / g......2-3 SU / 4-1 ATS / 5-0 OVER in bowls .
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Posted: #32
 
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Posted: #33

adding Bama -13' (-115)......smaller play for now

    * Bama TT over maybe stronger play.....smart thing maybe is to wait for the game to start (then we;ll see how healthy Tua is)     >  my hunch is they steamroll OU 

$  I'll definitely add to it one way or another..........peace_5

 

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Posted: #34

MSU Alum, so I need to disclose that.

Those of you discussing Oregon as an easy bet, the last 5 weeks for MSU would absolutely suggest that.  I've made good money off fading MSU in the last few games.  I would urge caution in this one though.  I am not necessarily recommending an MSU bet but suggesting a stay out and do not bet. 

The defense is amazing and will hold Oregon down.  The offense finally has several weeks to get some health and do a soft reset (their bye week came at the beginning of the season and the injuries have piled up on the offensive side since).  Word around the program is the team is uniting and not giving up despite the awful offense and disappointing results.  Lewerke was doing well at the end of last year (Wash St bowl game) and may finally be healthy (he hasn't been for 5+ games).  Oh, and the PAC12 isn't fantastic and Sparty travels well.   And Mark wins close games way more often than not. 

I think MSU wins this one and the offense shows a markedly different tone.  Don't bet this game. 

 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

CONFUSED....as to which side to play?......$$     Why not wait until the game starts.....because one of  most predictable things I've noticed about bowl games....      * is that a team is READY to play......or they ain't......especially in the EARLY games       Seldom does a team 'find it...once the game startsIF they do....it's usually because a dominant player (QB) is determined to not go out a loser eg.     John Football / RG3.....2 of my largest ever bets BTWEggzactly.....how many times has a team managed to come back from just a TD deficit....say the last 3 years?   *   before 12/25    ONCE ...in 39 games     *   12/26-30           3X.........in 46 games   *   after 12/30        5X.........in 37 games  note: dog only 3X (Frogs / Ducks...Clem / Bama '16...SCaro / Mich)IF....dog or favorite was down (or tied) at the half  * what happened 2H?2017* before 12/25      fav was down / tied 9X......came back to win the game ONCE (Quinton Flowers / game tied at half too)             * dog down / tied 7X.....NONE came back* 12/26 > 29          fav down 6X.....came back 3X                                 * dog down 14X......won game ONCE (highly motivated NMSU)* > 12/30               fav down 5X.......won 2X......Bama / Georgia                                * dog down 5X....won 22016* before 12/25     fav down / tied  5X......won ONCE (SMiss QB N Mullens vs ULL D)                              

 

Great stuff right there.  If that's all anyone reads in this thread, they'd be better off then when they go here.

Good luck, man.peace_5

 
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Posted: #36
adding Tulane -3 (-115)...

Big Picture Play........
   * playing the team with PROVEN HC in year 3.....vs rookie in year 1

Wave with a weak O but much stronger D...that gone worn down by the much tougher schedule **
   > Wake > UAB > Ohio St > Memphis > Cinn all 1st 6 weeks
             $  beat Memphis by 16 / 6 days after Ohio St road !
  
Plus.....Tulane QB just came in a week before week 1.....should be improved here......and HC Fritz fired his OC and likely to call plays himself (new guy from Memphis won't be involved yet) 

$$   MUST WIN for Tulane....not so much for ULL....who has already exceeded their expectations (won SB West beating Ark St and ULM)


**  SOS numbers are beyond terrible.....it's the week in / out that counts
  eg.  ULL played Miss St AND Bama so their numbers will be fairly close....ULL with 5-6 lay-ups....SMU (underrated/ tough out by then) was 3rd weakest Tulane played................. 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

adding Tulane -3 (-115)...

Big Picture Play........
   * playing the team with PROVEN HC in year 3.....vs rookie in year 1

Wave with a weak O but much stronger D...that gone worn down by the much tougher schedule **
   > Wake > UAB > Ohio St > Memphis > Cinn all 1st 6 weeks
             $  beat Memphis by 16 / 6 days after Ohio St road !
  
Plus.....Tulane QB just came in a week before week 1.....should be improved here......and HC Fritz fired his OC and likely to call plays himself (new guy from Memphis won't be involved yet) 

$$   MUST WIN for Tulane....not so much for ULL....who has already exceeded their expectations (won SB West beating Ark St and ULM)


**  SOS numbers are beyond terrible.....it's the week in / out that counts
  eg.  ULL played Miss St AND Bama so their numbers will be fairly close....ULL with 5-6 lay-ups....SMU (underrated/ tough out by then) was 3rd weakest Tulane played................. 

  Been thinking about adding this one as well.
 
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Posted: #38

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

adding Bama -13' (-115)......smaller play for now     * Bama TT over maybe stronger play.....smart thing maybe is to wait for the game to start (then we;ll see how healthy Tua is)     >  my hunch is they steamroll OU  $  I'll definitely add to it one way or another..........

 

Two site just put up Bama TT O 47.5. Guess Bama Boys are going to have to hang 48 on OU to win. But why not? Not sure Bama's punter is going to have to suit up. new_cool

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by MaGis:

MSU Alum, so I need to disclose that.

Those of you discussing Oregon as an easy bet, the last 5 weeks for MSU would absolutely suggest that.  I've made good money off fading MSU in the last few games.  I would urge caution in this one though.  I am not necessarily recommending an MSU bet but suggesting a stay out and do not bet. 

The defense is amazing and will hold Oregon down.  The offense finally has several weeks to get some health and do a soft reset (their bye week came at the beginning of the season and the injuries have piled up on the offensive side since).  Word around the program is the team is uniting and not giving up despite the awful offense and disappointing results.  Lewerke was doing well at the end of last year (Wash St bowl game) and may finally be healthy (he hasn't been for 5+ games).  Oh, and the PAC12 isn't fantastic and Sparty travels well.   And Mark wins close games way more often than not. 

I think MSU wins this one and the offense shows a markedly different tone.  Don't bet this game. 


no doubt.....I wouldn't get too excited about laying 3 for sure
  >>  which suggests that my (pick'em) play maybe shoulda been smaller.......

PROBLEM here with Sparty?.....

WHEN YEAR BEGAN....with 19 starters / excellent QB they were thinking PLAY-OFF / NY6 at worst....
  *  off 3-9 in 2016 > 10-3 in 2017 (Holiday Bowl v Wazzu /won 42-17 (-1)

NOW.....they regress back to 7-5.....and find themselves in the stinkin' West Coast Weedeater Bowl?
  >>  "oh they'll be ready!....??".....< not gonna lay down here sure but just how much can they care about THIS one?

Which is more likely?.....human nature being what it is ha
     * they cant wait to play the Ducks > set tone for 2019 / play hard for FOUR QUARTERS
     * let's just get this BS over with / not get embarrassed

NOTE:  IF this were the ROSE BOWL.....Ducks would get beat up

ALSO.....let's  eggzamine that Sparty O..................
     note : vs the average #53 D each week (Terps / NCSt / Tree)

Total O    #125   4.7/play...342 /g.......
rush  O    #118   3.5 / 122  (ONCE they av over 4.0/rush ...Terps)
pass O   # 127 wtf 5.8/play...221...51%.....12 TD / 13 INT
3rd #114....RZ #118  .....19.8 pts/g
       $  these are historically bad numbers.....worse than the 2012 O

S&P      #118 early downs / #118 passing downs
             #119 efficiency / #116 explosive plays
              #119 finishing drives
              #106 field position
               #98 allowing penetration / but #35 sacks awright!
                      > note Duck D 71 / 84 resp

SO.....it wasn't a few injuries / few bad games that set them  back....they started really bad > were never good > topped off with  incredibly bad finish
   * how can this be fixed in a few weeks?

DUCKS?......off 3 bowl losses / row....(LY lost to Boise in Vegas Bowl (-7).....clearly in BUILDING mode.....14 starters off 7-6 (4-8 2016)
   $$$$$  THIS game is HUGE for them......A MUST WIN
              >> Mario wants to make them more physical....this is the perfect test  

1)   Can they move the ball here?
       * #23 O vs #2 Sparty D.........normally not so much but here I'm gonna say they will ....enough to win

WHY?......in this type bowl.....where motivation might be lacking.....DEFENSE is usually what suffers....requires more effort / intensity......esp vs a fast paced / complex scheme
    * while knocking the piss outta somebody is in fact a good time > offense is more FUN

AND....don't forget this game also an AUDITION for Duck QB Herbert......should be #1 QB in draft if he chooses


2)   Can Sparty O move it / keeping their D off the field?
         * #114 O vs #69 Duck D......pace #115

Well....they haven't ALL YEAR.....I would say they come up with a few wrinkles....and move it for awhile
        
        note :  Ducks not bad and do have a few NFL types at DE / LB ....but DE Jelks is ?....#64 vs run....#77 vs pass 
         * they don't bring a lot of heat....but are disruptive (#29)
       
 ****  they give up yards (note prop guys).....but are actually tough when they need to make a stop
         closing drives #47....#48 on 3rd.....#5 in RZ 

            $  speaking of moving it for awhile....check out these rush D splits for Oregon......1Q they allow 5.1/rush......2Q it drops to 2.1...............4.3 in 3rd / 3.4 4th
  > they either plan poorly and / or adjust big time ha



What's gonna happen?.....
 * I would guess this might be one of the few games where MO shifts one half to next........GTTH? >   Sparty jumps out early....Herbert takes awhile to adjust to by far the toughest D he's seen.....Duck D ditto.....Ducks pull away 2H / win a close low scoring game
  * if Ducks get up early?......I don't think I would bet Sparty to come back.....if their D has come to play they will show EARLY.....if Sparty is moving the ball.....2H / in-game over maybe the  play  ....
 
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Posted: #40
added a few........

Top plays

UAB -1'
Ga Tech  -2'


one  unit

Iowa St  +7
Oregon  P
Texas  A&M  -3*
Texas  +13
Duke  +3'
Cuse  +7
Tulane  -3
FIU  +6

smaller

SDSU  +5
Virginia  +7
NW  +7'
Bama  -13'
EMich  +1
MTS  +7
WF  +6      >>   Mem OC / DC / TE coaches gone...betcha RB is done too.....HC maybe as well?
Army  -3



leans / waiting

Buffalo 
La Tech
Marshall 
Vandy
Tree
Miss St
Kentucky

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Posted: #41

Man BA, congrats to all for maintaining such a classy thread. You have a mostly genuine relationship with the posters here and trolls don't have anyplace to hide. bigsmile

Updating your bowl picks like you do takes your time but is really helpful.

BOL and GLTA

thumbs_up

 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by Vituperate:

Man BA, congrats to all for maintaining such a classy thread. You have a mostly genuine relationship with the posters here and trolls don't have anyplace to hide. bigsmile

Updating your bowl picks like you do takes your time but is really helpful.

BOL and GLTA

thumbs_up


good man BOL......................

yep that OU D .....is REALLY bad
  * just weak vs the run ....terrible vs the pass....can't bring pressure or get penetration....and can't make stops (#116 on 3rd / #130 in RZ).....opponents made 47 trips into RZ > scored 40 TD's (that 85% TD rate you only see once every few years)
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Posted: #43

Thanks alot for all the hard work you put into this thread!   peace_5

 

You learn more from losing than winning. You learn how to keep going.
 
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Posted: #44

Sending you your laugh for the day! bigsmile an_roll_laugh

"You are so poor that I tip more for a dinner than you spend for the entire dinner, but what do you expect when you consider a gourmet meal to be a Big Mac and a 6 pack. Now go back to your hole in the ground and think up your net batch of lies, loser.

All of my picks, including my GOY picks are always posted on my Betting Spreadsheet. If you look at it now, you will see my only wager that I have made so far for the College Bowl games. The truth is this. Most of you people in here are nothing but a bunch of lazy lying ass holes who are afraid of me. If you were not, you would simply go to my Betting Spread Sheet and look my record up for yourselves. But most of you are simply too afraid to expose yourselves for what you are. The fact that I could kick any of your asses any time I want to seems to scare many of you. The vast majority of you cannot wager with me because you simply do not have that kid of money available to wager with. Now there have been a couple of idiots who USED to wager in here and tried wagering and welshing out on the wager with me. That is why they USED to wager in here. Before any of you fools get any ideas, the same thing would happen to you.

Orange, you are new in here. If you think that it is so easy to do what I do, why don't you do it? Try it next season. I suggest that you know ALL of the things you have to know to be successful, like the three types of handicapping you should be using to make your selections, the type of wagering to do (there is only one type), how to determine odds, how to spot sucker lines and stay away from them, and about 30 other things you must know."

SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #45
thanks BA...good stuff!  
LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

Sending you your laugh for the day! bigsmile an_roll_laugh

"You are so poor that I tip more for a dinner than you spend for the entire dinner, but what do you expect when you consider a gourmet meal to be a Big Mac and a 6 pack. Now go back to your hole in the ground and think up your net batch of lies, loser.

All of my picks, including my GOY picks are always posted on my Betting Spreadsheet. If you look at it now, you will see my only wager that I have made so far for the College Bowl games. The truth is this. Most of you people in here are nothing but a bunch of lazy lying behind holes who are afraid of me. If you were not, you would simply go to my Betting Spread Sheet and look my record up for yourselves. But most of you are simply too afraid to expose yourselves for what you are. The fact that I could kick any of your fools any time I want to seems to scare many of you. The vast majority of you cannot wager with me because you simply do not have that kid of money available to wager with. Now there have been a couple of idiots who USED to wager in here and tried wagering and welshing out on the wager with me. That is why they USED to wager in here. Before any of you fools get any ideas, the same thing would happen to you.

Orange, you are new in here. If you think that it is so easy to do what I do, why don't you do it? Try it next season. I suggest that you know ALL of the things you have to know to be successful, like the three types of handicapping you should be using to make your selections, the type of wagering to do (there is only one type), how to determine odds, how to spot sucker lines and stay away from them, and about 30 other things you must know."



  too funny.......what the hell is/was he anyway ...> Hitler Youth trained under Mengele? ..........disagree with me? > you will die ha
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

thanks BA...good stuff!  
 

good man LH.....caught that early 13....always a terrible spot to be THAT team left out.....knowing you're better than 2 of the teams for sure.....extremely tough  to suck it up and get QUALITY work in...
     >>  MEANWHILE.....Horns gotta be coming in with a LASER focus.....dunno if they can beat 'em with that offense / OC tho........
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Posted: #48
been STARING at it since it came out....

    $  gonna add ARIZ ST.......not yet as it has gone up to 5...see if I can get at least 6.....will wait till game time if it keeps going up

probably small.....maybe not smart to bet against Fresno (covered 20/28)

IF....Ariz St had LOST to Zona in their last game.....I would wager more............really tough year....buncha close losses / wins....CLOSE OUT THE YEAR BY BEATING YOUR RIVAL !
     >> but wait a minute.....you've got ONE MORE GAME wtf

Same situation with Fresno....so tough to figure out.....
  $  the game means MUCH MORE to Herm / ASU for sure....he REALLY needs to win here.....Fresno?.....doesn't matter....MTW champ by beating Boise....their story has been written 

           $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$



thehuntman......BOL man................
        * love that avatar ha

l 
ksuwins........yep that IMO .....is where the $$ is for sure

        *   best way is to kinda have a plan beforehand....as to how the game might play out.....and what you will do.....

eg.    Utah St gets up on NTX?.....highly unlikely NTX comes back
         Zona St up on Fresno?.......same
         EM up on GS?....................same
              GS up on EM? (my team ha) dunno EM will fight to the end man
          Tulane / ULL?.....Tulane should hold the lead....ULL up ?
           MTS / ASU?.....tough one....if MTS is there to play they should show it 1H

usually this is the way it works in these early games for sure....later (more meaningful) games.... a team might fight for 4Q  .......
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Posted: #49
adding BColl +3 (smaller).......the better team IMO

gonna bump up EMich at 3......will wait / buy ...........
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Posted: #50
got 3' on EM.....they will win anyway / 6 on Zona St at -116


Top plays

UAB -1'
Ga Tech  -2'


one  unit

Iowa St  +7
Oregon  P
Texas  A&M  -3
Texas  +13
Duke  +3'
Cuse  +7
Tulane  -3
FIU  +6
EMich  +3'



smaller

SDSU  +5
Cuse  +7'
Virginia  +7
NW  +7'
Bama  -13'
MTS  +7
WF  +6
Army  -3
Ariz St +6 
BColl  +3




The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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