*cold weather teams....with no indoor facility...tough to stay in top condition if you can't work outside AND...warm weather teams...playing in cold weather
would that apply to Miami here? If it happen to be below freezing in NY on the day of the game, I think Wisc could be the play...those smashmouth dudes love the cold...Miami not so much...
LonghornHoosier
0
BA's Bowl Rules
Fade
*cold weather teams....with no indoor facility...tough to stay in top condition if you can't work outside AND...warm weather teams...playing in cold weather
would that apply to Miami here? If it happen to be below freezing in NY on the day of the game, I think Wisc could be the play...those smashmouth dudes love the cold...Miami not so much...
I put the play on BC when Miami showed up there and said weather is gunna be very Un-Miami this weekend..... WR's were looking like T-Rexs out there everyone huddled around a heater on the sidelines... announcers brought it up a few times very noticeable impact... does that mean they haven't learned their lesson idk but they weren't prepared to handle the cold that night...
Good Luck!
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I put the play on BC when Miami showed up there and said weather is gunna be very Un-Miami this weekend..... WR's were looking like T-Rexs out there everyone huddled around a heater on the sidelines... announcers brought it up a few times very noticeable impact... does that mean they haven't learned their lesson idk but they weren't prepared to handle the cold that night...
accuweather forecast for NYC on Dec 27, 2018 Pinstripe Bowl low 34 high 41...is that cold enough not derail the warm weathered canes...
just LOST detailed answer wtf...........
> divine intervention maybe
maybe wait closer to game time / OR wait for 2H / in-game
* if now the UNDER maybe better than a side anyway....note both play slow.....Wisky #83 / Mia #82 in pace
$$ remember in these earlier crap bowls very seldom does a team EVER comeback ....I would HEAVILY lean Wisky 2H tho...esp if they're up .......bitter cold?.....you think Miami is likely to mount a huge 2H comeback.?........
BOTH should struggle to move it......esp on a bad field
$ and both D's match-up well vs other O
Canes maybe with the (small) edge here .....lost LY to Wisky in Orange / Richt (fine bowl coach) needs it more.......
* if Wisky cant run on a bad field...they are in huge trouble
W- #80 pass O....#91 in sacks allowed / M- #9 pass D / #2 sacks + #1 in havoc / disruption
For a 'weather play'.....maybe best to check roster / see where key guys are from too....these days most recruit nation wide......
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
accuweather forecast for NYC on Dec 27, 2018 Pinstripe Bowl low 34 high 41...is that cold enough not derail the warm weathered canes...
just LOST detailed answer wtf...........
> divine intervention maybe
maybe wait closer to game time / OR wait for 2H / in-game
* if now the UNDER maybe better than a side anyway....note both play slow.....Wisky #83 / Mia #82 in pace
$$ remember in these earlier crap bowls very seldom does a team EVER comeback ....I would HEAVILY lean Wisky 2H tho...esp if they're up .......bitter cold?.....you think Miami is likely to mount a huge 2H comeback.?........
BOTH should struggle to move it......esp on a bad field
$ and both D's match-up well vs other O
Canes maybe with the (small) edge here .....lost LY to Wisky in Orange / Richt (fine bowl coach) needs it more.......
* if Wisky cant run on a bad field...they are in huge trouble
W- #80 pass O....#91 in sacks allowed / M- #9 pass D / #2 sacks + #1 in havoc / disruption
For a 'weather play'.....maybe best to check roster / see where key guys are from too....these days most recruit nation wide......
accuweather forecast for NYC on Dec 27, 2018 Pinstripe Bowl low 34 high 41...is that cold enough not derail the warm weathered canes...
just LOST detailed answer wtf........... > divine intervention maybemaybe wait closer to game time / OR wait for 2H / in-game * if now the UNDER maybe better than a side anyway....note both play slow.....Wisky #83 / Mia #82 in pace $$ remember in these earlier crap bowls very seldom does a team EVER comeback ....I would HEAVILY lean Wisky 2H tho...esp if they're up .......bitter cold?.....you think Miami is likely to mount a huge 2H comeback.?........ BOTH should struggle to move it......esp on a bad field $ and both D's match-up well vs other OCanes maybe with the (small) edge here .....lost LY to Wisky in Orange / Richt (fine bowl coach) needs it more....... * if Wisky cant run on a bad field...they are in huge trouble W- #80 pass O....#91 in sacks allowed / M- #9 pass D / #2 sacks + #1 in havoc / disruptionFor a 'weather play'.....maybe best to check roster / see where key guys are from too....these days most recruit nation wide......
Nice work, man.
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Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
accuweather forecast for NYC on Dec 27, 2018 Pinstripe Bowl low 34 high 41...is that cold enough not derail the warm weathered canes...
just LOST detailed answer wtf........... > divine intervention maybemaybe wait closer to game time / OR wait for 2H / in-game * if now the UNDER maybe better than a side anyway....note both play slow.....Wisky #83 / Mia #82 in pace $$ remember in these earlier crap bowls very seldom does a team EVER comeback ....I would HEAVILY lean Wisky 2H tho...esp if they're up .......bitter cold?.....you think Miami is likely to mount a huge 2H comeback.?........ BOTH should struggle to move it......esp on a bad field $ and both D's match-up well vs other OCanes maybe with the (small) edge here .....lost LY to Wisky in Orange / Richt (fine bowl coach) needs it more....... * if Wisky cant run on a bad field...they are in huge trouble W- #80 pass O....#91 in sacks allowed / M- #9 pass D / #2 sacks + #1 in havoc / disruptionFor a 'weather play'.....maybe best to check roster / see where key guys are from too....these days most recruit nation wide......
BA, just wondering what you see in E Mich in this matchup with Ga Southern?
questioning E Michigan?.....in my own thread ?.....that's a below the belt move for sure man.........................
ON PAPER....GS looks like the play I admit...
#1 FADING the MAC.....esp vs more athletic SB is usually $
* I think MAC has lost 11/12 bowls SU
PLUS....GS has much better ST.....and is #1 in TO
> plus EM O doesn't do much well....their D stronger vs the pass than run
For me?
If I had to rank every team based on HOW MUCH THEY WANNA WIN.....EM would (probably) be #1
* HC Creighton has pulled them outta an absolute shiithole....they (finally) made a bowl in 2016 but lost.....came close LY but finished 5-7......NOW they're ready to win + almost missed out at 7-5...lobbied hard to get here ("Call My Name" video ha)
>> GS?....fine story as well (last bowl 2015).....off 7-17 SU run ...they go 9-3 this year > finished STRONG.....nothing left for them to prove.....their story is written
Check out their early schedule...played hard every single week...
@ Purdue > @ Buffalo > @ SDSU > N Illinois > @ W Mich > Toledo ......lost to a tough Buffalo tm by 7 off that Purdue W......had SDSU BEAT too.....lost in OT
* did lose to Army by 15...but 'held' them to 2nd lowest yd/rush (3.95)....behind Duke...> note Buffalo lost to Army by 30 / OU almost got beat at home
$$ NOW......check out GS's schedule......strong W vs App St you bet....on the road whipped by ULM.....almost lost to TX ST....didn't compete vs Troy at home...rest crap (I bet on 'em most every week too ha)
EM maybe best team to bet on the last 3 yrs or so?......or close
$ covered 26/37......17/21 as dog
I would be REALLY surprised if they lose this one....who TF knows GS maybe too much speed (pass D ain't bad either)....but I do know EM will fight like crazy to the final whistle...........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Super_Chicken:
BA, just wondering what you see in E Mich in this matchup with Ga Southern?
questioning E Michigan?.....in my own thread ?.....that's a below the belt move for sure man.........................
ON PAPER....GS looks like the play I admit...
#1 FADING the MAC.....esp vs more athletic SB is usually $
* I think MAC has lost 11/12 bowls SU
PLUS....GS has much better ST.....and is #1 in TO
> plus EM O doesn't do much well....their D stronger vs the pass than run
For me?
If I had to rank every team based on HOW MUCH THEY WANNA WIN.....EM would (probably) be #1
* HC Creighton has pulled them outta an absolute shiithole....they (finally) made a bowl in 2016 but lost.....came close LY but finished 5-7......NOW they're ready to win + almost missed out at 7-5...lobbied hard to get here ("Call My Name" video ha)
>> GS?....fine story as well (last bowl 2015).....off 7-17 SU run ...they go 9-3 this year > finished STRONG.....nothing left for them to prove.....their story is written
Check out their early schedule...played hard every single week...
@ Purdue > @ Buffalo > @ SDSU > N Illinois > @ W Mich > Toledo ......lost to a tough Buffalo tm by 7 off that Purdue W......had SDSU BEAT too.....lost in OT
* did lose to Army by 15...but 'held' them to 2nd lowest yd/rush (3.95)....behind Duke...> note Buffalo lost to Army by 30 / OU almost got beat at home
$$ NOW......check out GS's schedule......strong W vs App St you bet....on the road whipped by ULM.....almost lost to TX ST....didn't compete vs Troy at home...rest crap (I bet on 'em most every week too ha)
EM maybe best team to bet on the last 3 yrs or so?......or close
$ covered 26/37......17/21 as dog
I would be REALLY surprised if they lose this one....who TF knows GS maybe too much speed (pass D ain't bad either)....but I do know EM will fight like crazy to the final whistle...........
In the Ice Bowl Bob Hayes ran routes with his hands in his (sweat) pockets ha
Hell around the DFW area this week....we had lows predicted in the high 30's .....which created a city wide frenzy.....highways shut down to salt the overpasses / bridges....folks scurrying around like ants in stores to stock up.....some school closures expected .......
> gotta be a mental as well as physiological issue if you're not used to it
BOL tomorrow boys.......................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
looking like T-Rex's............
In the Ice Bowl Bob Hayes ran routes with his hands in his (sweat) pockets ha
Hell around the DFW area this week....we had lows predicted in the high 30's .....which created a city wide frenzy.....highways shut down to salt the overpasses / bridges....folks scurrying around like ants in stores to stock up.....some school closures expected .......
> gotta be a mental as well as physiological issue if you're not used to it
Reference Guide. Better than the Covers download. Please, try to keep BA's great breakdown high on this forum. His excellent synopsis of this year and year's past bowls will be very helpful.
Thanks BA for your hard work.
DaBreeze
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Reference Guide. Better than the Covers download. Please, try to keep BA's great breakdown high on this forum. His excellent synopsis of this year and year's past bowls will be very helpful.
Good start BA. Took your advise a bit on the live betting ordeal and cashed out on a couple live over/unders plus a nice moneyline bet on fresno state at half.
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Good start BA. Took your advise a bit on the live betting ordeal and cashed out on a couple live over/unders plus a nice moneyline bet on fresno state at half.
BA.....thanks for the info you provide.....always the most informative posts in this thread. As far as strength of schedule......what source have you found to be most accurate? It seems like there is a lot of variance among sources like Sagarin, Massey etc.
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BA.....thanks for the info you provide.....always the most informative posts in this thread. As far as strength of schedule......what source have you found to be most accurate? It seems like there is a lot of variance among sources like Sagarin, Massey etc.
BA.....thanks for the info you provide.....always the most informative posts in this thread. As far as strength of schedule......what source have you found to be most accurate? It seems like there is a lot of variance among sources like Sagarin, Massey etc.
I always use Bill C's stuff at Football Study Hall / Football Outsiders > there under FEI overall ratings it seems
* nothing wrong with Sagarin's I don't think.............
CFB Analytics a great site > they give you off / def SOS as well
$$ best way for me is to scan their schedule week by week....check game recaps to see if anybody got hurt (like QB knocked out early that sort of thing)
That's what drives me crazy about most SOS ratings....it's not just WHO you played .....but WHEN / what order
* plus...how good was that team when you actually played 'em?
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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Quote Originally Posted by soonboomer:
BA.....thanks for the info you provide.....always the most informative posts in this thread. As far as strength of schedule......what source have you found to be most accurate? It seems like there is a lot of variance among sources like Sagarin, Massey etc.
I always use Bill C's stuff at Football Study Hall / Football Outsiders > there under FEI overall ratings it seems
* nothing wrong with Sagarin's I don't think.............
CFB Analytics a great site > they give you off / def SOS as well
$$ best way for me is to scan their schedule week by week....check game recaps to see if anybody got hurt (like QB knocked out early that sort of thing)
That's what drives me crazy about most SOS ratings....it's not just WHO you played .....but WHEN / what order
* plus...how good was that team when you actually played 'em?
$ been staring at 'em awhile....don't think line will improve my way....Kentucky (no bowl wins under Stoops)....should play the hell outta Penn St.....Nevada not bad.....lost to UNLV last game (Rebels got QB back).....but competed well in a tough stretch....
>> @ Vandy (L) > beat Oreg St > @ Toledo L > WON @ AF > outgained Fresno at home despite losing QB > lost to Boise by 4 > won by 22 @ Hawaii > BEAT SDSU
ASU deserves to be favored prolly....but mostly beat up bad teams....crazy azz HC Anderson is 1-3 SU / ATS in bowls
* huge game for Pack / Norvell.....not so much for ASU
Top plays
UAB -1'
Ga Tech -2'
one unit
Iowa St +7
Oregon P
Texas A&M -3
Texas +13
Duke +3'
Cuse +7
Tulane -3 W
FIU +6
EMich +3' W
NDSU -13
Kentucky +7
smaller
SDSU +5
Cuse +7'
Virginia +7
NW +7'
Bama -13'
MTS +7 L
WF +6
Army -3
Ariz St +6 L
BColl +3
Nevada +2
leans / waiting
TREE
Vandy
Fla .....hit this soon I think while 7' still these
TCU
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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added a few...............
$ been staring at 'em awhile....don't think line will improve my way....Kentucky (no bowl wins under Stoops)....should play the hell outta Penn St.....Nevada not bad.....lost to UNLV last game (Rebels got QB back).....but competed well in a tough stretch....
>> @ Vandy (L) > beat Oreg St > @ Toledo L > WON @ AF > outgained Fresno at home despite losing QB > lost to Boise by 4 > won by 22 @ Hawaii > BEAT SDSU
ASU deserves to be favored prolly....but mostly beat up bad teams....crazy azz HC Anderson is 1-3 SU / ATS in bowls
* huge game for Pack / Norvell.....not so much for ASU
Top plays
UAB -1'
Ga Tech -2'
one unit
Iowa St +7
Oregon P
Texas A&M -3
Texas +13
Duke +3'
Cuse +7
Tulane -3 W
FIU +6
EMich +3' W
NDSU -13
Kentucky +7
smaller
SDSU +5
Cuse +7'
Virginia +7
NW +7'
Bama -13'
MTS +7 L
WF +6
Army -3
Ariz St +6 L
BColl +3
Nevada +2
leans / waiting
TREE
Vandy
Fla .....hit this soon I think while 7' still these
Hello sir! I was just curious what your angle on UAB is? You certainly do your homework and know your stuff. I thought NIU was the better team but I know there is more to it than that! Thank you!!!
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Hello sir! I was just curious what your angle on UAB is? You certainly do your homework and know your stuff. I thought NIU was the better team but I know there is more to it than that! Thank you!!!
Hello sir! I was just curious what your angle on UAB is? You certainly do your homework and know your stuff. I thought NIU was the better team but I know there is more to it than that! Thank you!!!
EARLY bowls you ask yourself (usually)....who wants it more?
>> the MATCH-UP....is secondary
Basic stuff for this one in post #7
and.....
N Illinois..under Carey is -84 ATS (meaning MISSED the cover by 84 points last 4 bowls).....0-5 SU / ATS L5
Dec 26, 2017NIU14DUKE36L-6.0L48.5O
Dec 23, 2015BOISE55N.ILL7L+6.5L57.0O
Dec 23, 2014N.ILL23MARSHL52L-8.5L67.5O
Dec 26, 2013UTAHST21N.ILL14L+2.0L56.5U
Jan 1, 2013N.ILL10FLAST31L-14.5L59.0U
suggesting....he uses the bowls as more of a vacation / reward maybe...after slow start they won the MAC....goals have been met
UAB a team on a MISSION / no doubt IMO they are here to WIN....
* 2 years from no football at all recall....25 Srs on 2 deep (17 start)
N Illinois with the (slightly) stronger D...UAB with the much better O....excellent RB in Brown / strong OL
* both teams should struggle to move the ball (consider UNDER / game....1H / 2H).....I figure UAB makes a few more stops / finds a way to get this done.................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LoveCFB1_:
Hello sir! I was just curious what your angle on UAB is? You certainly do your homework and know your stuff. I thought NIU was the better team but I know there is more to it than that! Thank you!!!
EARLY bowls you ask yourself (usually)....who wants it more?
>> the MATCH-UP....is secondary
Basic stuff for this one in post #7
and.....
N Illinois..under Carey is -84 ATS (meaning MISSED the cover by 84 points last 4 bowls).....0-5 SU / ATS L5
Dec 26, 2017NIU14DUKE36L-6.0L48.5O
Dec 23, 2015BOISE55N.ILL7L+6.5L57.0O
Dec 23, 2014N.ILL23MARSHL52L-8.5L67.5O
Dec 26, 2013UTAHST21N.ILL14L+2.0L56.5U
Jan 1, 2013N.ILL10FLAST31L-14.5L59.0U
suggesting....he uses the bowls as more of a vacation / reward maybe...after slow start they won the MAC....goals have been met
UAB a team on a MISSION / no doubt IMO they are here to WIN....
* 2 years from no football at all recall....25 Srs on 2 deep (17 start)
N Illinois with the (slightly) stronger D...UAB with the much better O....excellent RB in Brown / strong OL
* both teams should struggle to move the ball (consider UNDER / game....1H / 2H).....I figure UAB makes a few more stops / finds a way to get this done.................
Hi BA, Thanks for the kind reply. That''s one of my 4 grand kids as my profile photo. Those days of makin babies are long gone after 40yrs of marital bliss Now, spend most of our days enjoying their wonderful innocence and curious ways. LOL Let's go UAB tonight. Hope they come ready to play.
GL to us all !!
DaBreeze
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Hi BA, Thanks for the kind reply. That''s one of my 4 grand kids as my profile photo. Those days of makin babies are long gone after 40yrs of marital bliss Now, spend most of our days enjoying their wonderful innocence and curious ways. LOL Let's go UAB tonight. Hope they come ready to play.
need to keep in mind that we're going to see a lot more significant line moves in this new era of stars sitting out bowl games. Just makes life even more complicated.
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need to keep in mind that we're going to see a lot more significant line moves in this new era of stars sitting out bowl games. Just makes life even more complicated.
need to keep in mind that we're going to see a lot more significant line moves in this new era of stars sitting out bowl games. Just makes life even more complicated.
OR.......be a good guesser
* waiting / staying away the best plan maybe / not my style
Right on WV QB.......took the early 7.......right on Memphis RB > grabbed the 6......wrong on Bryce Love tho.....glad I didn't play Tree....might still at lower #
>> several more may jump that Michigan ship......Gators at 7' not bad either way
Taking slight?... risks with Snell and Herbert.....but I think they play
That thread on guys leaving was pretty damm funny......did my heart good to see the old school thinking ha......boys you can no longer IMPOSE YOUR WILL ON OTHERS......just for your pleasure....
How bout?......" I hate it....but understand it" ......not that tough
COACHES leaving their team before the season is over.?....is far worse IMO.......I get this also......why is this
even allowed?
Speaking of........EWash gonna play the Bison close.....or get blown out?
>> I think the distractions help keep it close for awhile...NDSU pulls away 2H
Good to see you man....BOL................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:
need to keep in mind that we're going to see a lot more significant line moves in this new era of stars sitting out bowl games. Just makes life even more complicated.
OR.......be a good guesser
* waiting / staying away the best plan maybe / not my style
Right on WV QB.......took the early 7.......right on Memphis RB > grabbed the 6......wrong on Bryce Love tho.....glad I didn't play Tree....might still at lower #
>> several more may jump that Michigan ship......Gators at 7' not bad either way
Taking slight?... risks with Snell and Herbert.....but I think they play
That thread on guys leaving was pretty damm funny......did my heart good to see the old school thinking ha......boys you can no longer IMPOSE YOUR WILL ON OTHERS......just for your pleasure....
How bout?......" I hate it....but understand it" ......not that tough
COACHES leaving their team before the season is over.?....is far worse IMO.......I get this also......why is this
even allowed?
Speaking of........EWash gonna play the Bison close.....or get blown out?
>> I think the distractions help keep it close for awhile...NDSU pulls away 2H
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- great stuff as always!!!
Now, spend most of our days enjoying their wonderful innocence and curious ways. LOL Let's go UAB tonight. Hope they come ready to play. 
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