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2018 Offseason Stuff

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Posted: #101
TD. Thank you again for all of your work.   Quick question on the totals, what is your unit size for each of those please? Thanks again, J
 
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Posted: #102
Updated:

Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5  (2u)
Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Florida State -6 (1u)
Washington / Auburn Under 51  (1u)
Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48  (0.75u)
Northern Illinois / Iowa  Under 51  (0.75u)
 Washington +5.5  (0.5u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)
Ball State -9.5
Villanova +18.5
Iowa State -12
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5
Florida -33
Louisiana Monroe -11
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5
James Madison +14.5 hook & again +14.5 (no hook this time)  
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5

College Extra Week 1:
Eastern Kentucky -23.5
The Citadel +15 & +14.5
McNeese State PK
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45
New Hampshire -3

GOY Lines:
Mississippi State -3 (1u)  (Week 2 at Kansas State on 9/8)
Notre Dame -7 (0.5u)  (Week 4 at Wake Forest on 9/22)
Mississippi State +18.5 (0.5u)  (Week 11 on 11/10)


 
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Posted: #103
You da man
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Opening Totals locked in this afternoon:

Washington / Auburn Under 51

Northern Illinois / Iowa Under 51

Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48






TD , Nice Work on that Mich / ND total . BOL just dropped it to 46'
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #105

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Opening Totals locked in this afternoon: Washington / Auburn Under 51 Northern Illinois / Iowa Under 51 Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48
TD , Nice Work on that Mich / ND total . BOL just dropped it to 46'
What do you guys predict for a final score in that Mich game and Washington game? Thank you so much!!!!

 
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Posted: #106

I also am looking closely at the total in the NI/Iowa game......Both teams like to run it and I think NI will have trouble scoring in this one.....I see a 28-13 type game.

 

GL TD

 
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Posted: #107

I don’t normally post but I have read your threads. Amazing work. I have 3 questions.

1) Would you still take Syracuse at -6

2) Will you be betting on the Iowa State game and the under for the Stony Brook/Air Force game

3) I know you haven’t mentioned it but have you looked into the NC A&T vs East Carolina game at all. NCAT returns a lot of their players from their 12-0 season, and ECU was just awful last year but had an offense fedthat could put up points. But now the QBs have graduated

 
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Posted: #108

I do love the Auburn/Washington UNDER.  I love Duke too, although I really haven't had time to thoroughly cap week one yet.  Will get busy on it next week when I have more time.

I can certainly understand why many are fading Alabama week one (particularly situationally), but I don't think that they are properly accounting for the Tua Tagovailoa factor.  I understand 31.5 is a lot of points, but I don;t think it'll be nearly enough.  Understand that this is the first time in the Saban era that Alabama has had a truly elite QB under center.  They are absolutely going to demolish teams this season, starting with Louisville.  I think they score north of 50 points versus the Cardinals.

I have faded Alabama quite a bit the past two seasons, including the championship game two years ago, and both playoff games last season.  But this is NOT the season to fade Alabama.

 

 

 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

I do love the Auburn/Washington UNDER.  I love Duke too, although I really haven't had time to thoroughly cap week one yet.  Will get busy on it next week when I have more time.

I can certainly understand why many are fading Alabama week one (particularly situationally), but I don't think that they are properly accounting for the Tua Tagovailoa factor.  I understand 31.5 is a lot of points, but I don;t think it'll be nearly enough.  Understand that this is the first time in the Saban era that Alabama has had a truly elite QB under center.  They are absolutely going to demolish teams this season, starting with Louisville.  I think they score north of 50 points versus the Cardinals.

I have faded Alabama quite a bit the past two seasons, including the championship game two years ago, and both playoff games last season.  But this is NOT the season to fade Alabama.


jimmy, I agree that Alabama has a different feel this year in terms of "how" they will be great.  I think in the past they've been more consistent (i.e., only moderate ceiling at QB) and strong where as this year with the Tua factor and the defensive losses (but still very talented on D) that overall they may be a more "high ceiling / volatile" type of strong team (in a good way some weeks) this year.  Large blowouts are very possible on the weeks where Tua plays well and plays the entire game.  If those weeks align with the Secondary playing like veterans, then watch out!

I took UL +31.5 on 5/20 knowing that the South Point lines were coming out the next day and that this was the best line value I was going to see.  I considered staying away altogether, but decided to make a small play with the thinking that Big Nick will play both QBs some in the 1st couple games and let them "settle it on the field" like he has most seasons with the QB position.  And with the Secondary losses, I thought UL could get their 14-17 points.  Of course I locked this in before WR Jaylen Smith was questionable.  But, I agree with what you are saying about Alabama this year.  It certainly crossed my mind that there is some % chance that they just skull fck a team like Louisville and win by 50.  I'm keeping it as a small play.  Won't be adding to it or backing out at the current #s.  There will certainly be spots this year where I look to play Alabama.  I waited too long on the Ole Miss GOY opening line I was considering as it was below 21 for a brief period of time.

Anyway, I'll be happy with a commanding Alabama 45-14 win here.

Best of luck to you this season!  
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by Black_42:

I don’t normally post but I have read your threads. Amazing work. I have 3 questions.

1) Would you still take Syracuse at -6

2) Will you be betting on the Iowa State game and the under for the Stony Brook/Air Force game

3) I know you haven’t mentioned it but have you looked into the NC A&T vs East Carolina game at all. NCAT returns a lot of their players from their 12-0 season, and ECU was just awful last year but had an offense fedthat could put up points. But now the QBs have graduated


1)  Probably.  I would take Syracuse -6 before I took WMU +6, I'll put it that way if you're looking for some action.  I would drop the bet size at -6, but probably still worth a look.

2)  I already did for both.  I only post plays right after they are locked in.

3)  I'll be brief, but will write a few words about this ECU / NC A&T game in a separate post.  I know Scal had asked about it too over in BV's Montana game thread.
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by MikeMed:

I also am looking closely at the total in the NI/Iowa game......Both teams like to run it and I think NI will have trouble scoring in this one.....I see a 28-13 type game.

 

GL TD


Mike, I'm looking forward to seeing either of Iowa's reserve tackles blocking Sutton Smith for a full game.  Smith will be fun to watch in this game especially with the Iowa suspensions.
 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by LoveCFB1_:

TD , Nice Work on that Mich / ND total . BOL just dropped it to 46' What do you guys predict for a final score in that Mich game and Washington game? Thank you so much!!!!


I'm not really into the score predicting business, but since I have a play on both the side & total in the UW / Auburn game I guess I'll throw a score out there. ..... Believe this came up in another thread months ago and I said UW 20 - Auburn 16 at the time.  I still think it will be this type of a score.  Maybe 23-20 range as well.  I would really like to see UW win outright.  I like Coach Peterson much better than Malzahn and think the Dogs pull out a close one.

As for Michigan / ND, not sure on the score as I'm staying away from the side bet there.  I think it will come down to which offense gets a few big plays.  UM D being so aggressive gives up the occasional big play.  And on offense with Shea Patterson that could also lead to high risk / high reward when they have the ball.  This game should be a similar score to the other game.  20 - 17 or 24-20.  Something like that.  But if it's 35-7 I'm good with that too for the Under.  I'd like to see UM win on about a 60 yard Q. Nordin field goal as time expires.  
 
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Posted: #113
Scal and Black_42,
    I had a pretty long response on the ECU / NC A&T game typed up but I somehow lost it all.  D@mn, makes me mad... might be operator error.  Muscle relaxer for my sore neck and computer time appear to be a bad combination.  I'll try to recap.

     ECU could/should win and cover most years vs. NC A&T, but I am not sure I have the stones to back them this year.  If Montgomery wants to keep his job into October, he'll want to show some improvement with a double digit win here.  But whether or not ECU has the talent or will play hard for Montgomery I have not decided yet.
      I would want to circle back and see how well the new ECU QBs are doing if I was considering a play on this game.  Same thing with trying to monitor the impact that a new DC will have in game #1.  By the way, the new ECU DC comes from FCS Jacksonville State.  Jax State just happens to play NC A&T in week 0.  So, ECU will get to see the 2018 NC A&T team in a real game before they play.  But conversely NC A&T gets real game reps in first that usually helps with early season week to week improvement.  NC A&T should remain solid (for their level) on defense with 8 starters back (most experience is in the front 4 and the Secondary).  But on offense NC A&T must replace 4 O-Linemen.  NC A&T does bring back their all conf QB, top RB, & top WR, but WRs #2 - #5 are all gone.

One reason to consider ECU is that they actually did well against teams at or below their own tier (or "weight class").  My post 2017 PR#s had ECU at 51.9.  ECU's 2017 results were very volatile.  Using my #s for all opponents as well, ECU had an ATS margin of -14.2 ppg vs. teams rated #14-#42 (0-5 ATS and the defense allowed 62.8 ppg!).  But against the bottom 3 opponents (rated #116 - #134 *rankings include FCS teams) they were +18.9 ppg for ATS margin and 3-0 ATS against UConn, Cinci, and BYU.  So, they played very well and matched up just fine against teams closer to their own talent level.  ECU should have the same or better talent than NC A&T.  How well they match up and how hard they'll play are separate discussions.

The 5D opener was -12 (Massey -13.5 baseline) and it's been bet down to -9.5.  So, a slightly better # available now if you like ECU.

Best of luck if you decide to get some action here!  
 
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Posted: #114

Good breakdown TD. I was going to go with NC A&T on that one. But I will stay away from that game. Any more thoughts on the Iowa state game and the Stoney Brook game. 

 
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Posted: #115
I bumped up the FAU play:

Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5  (2u)
Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Florida State -6 (1u)
Washington / Auburn Under 51  (1u)
Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48  (0.75u)
Northern Illinois / Iowa  Under 51  (0.75u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u) & Added FAU +21 -115 (0.4u) -- 0.7u overall
 Washington +5.5  (0.5u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)
Ball State -9.5
Villanova +18.5
Iowa State -12
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5
Florida -33
Louisiana Monroe -11
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5
James Madison +14.5 hook & again +14.5 (no hook this time)  
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5

College Extra Week 1:
Eastern Kentucky -23.5
The Citadel +15 & +14.5
McNeese State PK
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45
New Hampshire -3

GOY Lines:
Mississippi State -3 (1u)  (Week 2 at Kansas State on 9/8)
Notre Dame -7 (0.5u)  (Week 4 at Wake Forest on 9/22)
Mississippi State +18.5 (0.5u)  (Week 11 on 11/10)

 
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Posted: #116
And one more update:

Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5  (2u)
Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Florida State -6 (1u)
Washington / Auburn Under 51  (1u)
Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48  (0.75u)
Northern Illinois / Iowa  Under 51  (0.75u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u) & Added FAU +21 -115 (0.4u) -- 0.7u overall
 Washington +5.5  (0.5u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)
Ball State -9.5
Villanova +18.5
Iowa State -12
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5
Florida -33
Louisiana Monroe -11
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5
James Madison +14.5 hook & again +14.5 (no hook this time)  
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5
Added:  SE Missouri State / Arkansas State Over 55

College Extra Week 1:
Eastern Kentucky -23.5
The Citadel +15 & +14.5
McNeese State PK
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45
New Hampshire -3

GOY Lines:
Mississippi State -3 (1u)  (Week 2 at Kansas State on 9/8)
Notre Dame -7 (0.5u)  (Week 4 at Wake Forest on 9/22)
Mississippi State +18.5 (0.5u)  (Week 11 on 11/10)

[/Quote]
 
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Posted: #117
And one more update.... not sure why this didn't work in the last post:

Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5  (2u)
Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Florida State -6 (1u)
Washington / Auburn Under 51  (1u)
Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48  (0.75u)
Northern Illinois / Iowa  Under 51  (0.75u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u) & Added FAU +21 -115 (0.4u) -- 0.7u overall
 Washington +5.5  (0.5u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)
Ball State -9.5
Villanova +18.5
Iowa State -12
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5
Florida -33
Louisiana Monroe -11
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5
James Madison +14.5 hook & again +14.5 (no hook this time)  
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5
Added:  Southeast Missouri State / Arkansas State Over 55

College Extra Week 1:
Eastern Kentucky -23.5
The Citadel +15 & +14.5
McNeese State PK
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45
New Hampshire -3

GOY Lines:
Mississippi State -3 (1u)  (Week 2 at Kansas State on 9/8)
Notre Dame -7 (0.5u)  (Week 4 at Wake Forest on 9/22)
Mississippi State +18.5 (0.5u)  (Week 11 on 11/10)

 
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Posted: #118

I see that Mississippi st spread at K St is up to -5 now ....great work an_praise

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #119
A couple more full season prop bets are added below:

Heisman Trophy:  Trace McSorley +2000 & +2500
Heisman Trophy:  Kyler Murray +2700
Heisman Trophy: Nick Fitzgerald +3300 & +4000

Added:  Georgia to win the SEC +300  (0.2u)
*I expect Georgia to win the SEC east.  If they play Alabama in the SEC Championship game, +300 will be better than the Moneyline.  Looks like a good hedge opportunity at a minimum.

Added:  Johnathan Taylor rushing TDs Over 15.5 -140  *small play only.
 
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Posted: #120
I decided to play for LSU to win exactly 7 games and got out of the original LSU play below.  
I'll lose 0.025u or 0.03u in either case; 8 wins or more & 6 wins or less.  Exactly 7 LSU wins would cash the original play and push this added play.  I considered hedging the current Under 6.5 at +161 that would have guaranteed +0.1u for either case, but decided to play for the exact win instead.  So, risking 0.0275u on average to win 0.5u (essentially 18:1 odds) and I can play on or against LSU in the Texas A&M finale as needed.

RSW Win Totals:
Tennessee Under 6.5 -165  (risk 0.5 to win 0.303)
LSU Over 6.5 -110 (0.5u) & Added  LSU Under 7 -101  (Risk 0.525u to win 0.52u)
Washington Over 8.5 -195 & -200  (risk 0.985 to win 0.5u)
New Mexico State Under 6 -135 (to win 0.5u)
Louisville Under 7.5 -120  (to win 0.5u) 
Colorado State Over 5.5 -115 (to win 0.5u)
Ole Miss Under 6.5  -120 (1u)
Tulane Over 4.5 -110 (0.5u)
 
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Posted: #121
Non-Power 5 update -- adding the Mountain West below.


Preliminary 2018 AAC week 1 PR#s:

Central Florida  77.9
Memphis  77.9
Houston  77.6
Navy  72.9
South Florida  69.0
Temple  68.5
Tulane  66.2
SMU    65.7
Tulsa  63.7
Cincinnati  63.5
Connecticut  58.6
East Carolina  57.5

Preliminary 2018 Independents week 1 PR#s:

Notre Dame  91.2
Army  66.6
BYU  65.1
Massachusetts  61.2
New Mexico State  57.9
Liberty  45.3

Preliminary 2018 MAC week 1 PR#s:
Ohio University  70.0
Toledo  68.7
Northern Illinois  67.4
Miami (OH)  64.7
Western Michigan  64.7
Buffalo  64.5
Eastern Michigan  61.5
Central Michigan  56.7
Bowling Green  56.5
Akron  56.5
Ball State  52.3
Kent State  47.6

Preliminary 2018 Sun Belt week 1 PR#s:
Troy  69.0
Arkansas State  66.4
Appalachian State  64.5
Louisiana Monroe  62.5
Georgia Southern  61.8
South Alabama  57.7
Louisiana Lafayette  53.8
Georgia State  52.7
Coastal Carolina  51.9
Texas State  47.5

Preliminary 2018 Mountain West week 1 PR#s:
Boise State  83.0
San Diego State  75.0
Fresno State  73.6
Utah State  70.0
Wyoming  66.3
Nevada  66.0
Air Force  65.0
Colorado State  63.0
UNLV  60.2
New Mexico  56.3
San Jose State  48.3
Hawaii  47.2


 
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BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #123

Continuously tweaking #s based on preseason updates:

Preliminary 2018 Big Ten week 1 PR#s:
 
Ohio State  93.8
Wisconsin  90.9
Michigan  90.1
Penn State  88.3
Michigan State  86.9
Iowa  76.5
Nebraska  76.5
Northwestern  75.1
Purdue  73.4
Indiana  72.5
Maryland  71.6
Minnesota  71.3
Illinois  67.4
Rutgers  65.7

 
Preliminary 2018 Big 12 week 1 PR#s:
 
Oklahoma  91.0
Texas  87.1
West Virginia  80.9
Oklahoma State  80.6
TCU  79.8
Iowa State  78.3
Kansas State  75.5
Baylor  75.4
Texas Tech  75.1
Kansas  59.2

 
Preliminary 2018 ACC week 1 PR#s:
 
Clemson  99.2
Miami  87.8
Florida State  85.8
Boston College  79.3
North Carolina State  77.2
Louisville  77.2
Georgia Tech  76.9
Duke  75.8
Virginia Tech  75.6
Pittsburgh  74.7
Syracuse  74.1
North Carolina  73.5
Wake Forest  73.4
Virginia  67.6

 
Preliminary 2018 SEC week 1 PR#s:
 
Alabama  98.1
Georgia  97.5
Auburn  90.8
Mississippi State  90.8
LSU  83.5
Florida  82.8
Texas A&M  81.7
South Carolina  77.9
Missouri  74.7
Kentucky  72.5
Mississippi  72.5
Arkansas  72.4
Tennessee 72.1
Vanderbilt  65.2

 
Preliminary 2018 Pac 12 week 1 PR#s:
 
Washington  92.6
USC  85.9
Stanford  85.8
Oregon  84.7
Utah  78.2
Arizona  75.5
California  74.6
UCLA  74.1
Arizona State  74.0
Washington State  71.9
Colorado  70.6
Oregon State 59.7

 
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Posted: #124

Trying to wrap up CUSA still (FAU is already graded out), so here's my current top 50 overall PR #s no longer split out by conference:


1.  Clemson  99.2
2.  Alabama  98.1
3.  Georgia  97.5
4.  Ohio State  93.8
5.  Washington  92.6
6.  Oklahoma  91.0
7.  Wisconsin  90.9
8.  Notre Dame  90.8
8.  Mississippi State  90.8
8.  Auburn  90.8
11.  Michigan  90.1
12.  Penn State  88.3
13.   Miami  87.8
14.  Texas  87.1
15.  Michigan State  86.9
16.  USC  85.9
17.  Stanford  85.8
17.  Florida State  85.8
19.  Oregon  84.7
20.  LSU  83.5
21.  Boise State  83.0
22.  Florida  82.8
23.  Texas A&M  81.7
24.  West Virginia  80.9
25.  Oklahoma  State 80.6
26.  TCU  79.8
27.  Boston College  79.3
28.  Iowa State  78.3
29.  Utah  78.2
30.  South Carolina  77.9
30.  Memphis  77.9
30.  Central Florida  77.9
33.  Houston  77.6
34.  North Carolina State  77.2
34.  Louisville  77.2
36.  Georgia Tech  76.9
37.  Iowa  76.5
37.  Nebraska  76.5
39.  Duke  75.8
40.  Virginia Tech  75.6
41.  Kansas State  75.5
41.  Arizona  75.5
43.  Baylor  75.4
44.  Texas Tech  75.1
44.  Northwestern  75.1
46.  San Diego State  75.0
47.  Florida Atlantic  74.8
48.  Missouri  74.7
48.  Pittsburgh  74.7
50.  California  74.6






 
 
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Posted: #125

Sorry if this has been asked before - how many units do you play on games where you don’t list units?

small card this week!!

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