39-19 YTD - Lets Discuss This Card

Been crushing in this pool I play in. Pick the 15 biggest college games each week. Been doing fine with the local

but about to step up the volume. Looking to briefly break down some games and give my angles when I have them.  

Enjoy, scrutinize, analyze ...lets get it...

UNC @ Miami -18.5 ----7:30 Thursday Night 

Weather : Mid / low 80's at kick , humid, 20% rain - no system in area or rain predicted Wed - Fri. 

Breakdown: Fedora is a clown, cant be trusted. Richt is solid especially early in season. But 1st impression is this seems like too many points here, even on a Thursday night when the homefeild is usually strong. Miami got owned by LSU in Wk 1. Since then their best showing is @ Toledo by 3+ TD. Respectable. But they 'decelerated' last week beating FIU by only 2 scores. Miami has FSU on deck, and those in state games loom large even if the Noles are a shit show. 

UNC is a team thats hard to get a beat on IMO. Fedora sucks. He looks sleazy. In game he sucks. Discipline wise he sucks. His teams always seem to hurt themselves and make key mistakes. But he recruits. The team is talented. They played Cal to a 1 score game on the road. (Cal is good, honestly) Then they sleptwalk through a beatdown to East Carolina. Then they come home and beat Pitt as a dog last week. Offense broke out nicely against a decent defense in Pitt. There are 2 things that I really like situationally about UNC here;

1) They get 7 guys back off suspension. No stars per se, but 3 guys that will contribute on the front 7 including a starting DE. Also a WR that contributes.

2) UNC has an off date next week. 

This number is too high. Value with UNC.

4/5 on my "Lock - O - Meter" 

Weigh in by all means gentleman. More to come. 

As you like sir. You didnt read the post. Never claimed to 39-19 on Covers. But I did click a few in the NCAA contest last week and went 14-8 ATS. (Totals were real bad)...Lets talk about the games please

Anyway, good luck to you too. 

Syracuse @ Clemson -22.5 -12 Noon 

Weather: 7 day says alot of rain in the forecast; including thunderstorms. Radar shows rain in the area Friday overnight and all day Saturday. Generally sloppy track emphasizes value of line play and run game.This favors Clemson.

Breakdown: Both teams 4-0 coming in. Cuse upset them last year, so revenge angle/let down improbable. Head to Head this is 3-2 favoring Cuse in the L5. Clemson has not come close to covering this the L2. First impression is this # seems high. Was a bit surprised at how close A/M played Clemson, down the stretch the defense was not dominant as I would expect. They were vulnerable to the pass. Now I know Syracuse is not A/M but passing game is the strength. Clemson looked dominant last week against a run only and talent weak GT team. First impression is this is too many points, but am concerned with the weather working against a Cuse pass game. 

Cuse has an experienced team and QB, program is no doubt at peak right now. They are 4-0 and have gone 4-8 the last 3 seasons. Hammered FSU in week 2, but that is not exactly what it would seem I think everyone knows. But they will be playing with relative confidence and nothing to lose really. Syracuse has not played a truly competent offense yet this year in my opinion. They did give up a total of 42 @ Western Mich opening night, but that was after leading 34-7 at half. 

Clemson moving to start 'Sunshine' Lawrence Fr. QB. He is just a little more accurate thrower than Bryant. A little less athletic maybe, but still solid. Kid has a huge arm and looks to press downfield for big plays. This is the 1st meaningful home game of the season and this home-field will be a factor even at noon. Cuse Defense might be undervalued here. This is the DC's second year. They looked much improved through early part of the season last year and then a bunch of injury. Held FSU to 7 points. 

I am leaning to the points here also. In good weather I would be more comfortable.

Take: Cuse +22.5

"Confidence Meter" = 2/5

[Quote: Originally Posted by Flush1]Western Michigan mistakes otr gave the game away they are better than the Orange . Expect at least two turnovers and a beatdown . Back to earth for Syracuse who lost to Clemson 54-0 22 months ago in Carolina .[

I can definitely see a beat-down possible. Wont play this one with the local. But will be posting something about all 15 games im picking in this pool. But Western better than cuse? The boat has left the harbor lol

West Virginia -4.5 @ Texas Tech - 12 noon  (BTW the lines here are whats posted in my constest, from Monday afternoon) 

Weather: Overcast mid 70's. Non-Factor. 

Breakdown: Clearly slated for a shootout here? Tech was great last week. Made Okie St. give up in Stillwater. TT also handled a competent Houston team the prior week. Have shaken off their season opener v. Ole Miss. This freshman QB looks electric since making his 1st ever start. Defense is the best they have had in? a while. They have 10 returning starters from the D that posted their best ppg average in 4 seasons. Playing at home, catching points. The offense was in complete control last week @ Okie st. Over 70% completions 398 yards. over 60% on 3rd down. over 600 yards. Dont feel like WVA is a big upgrade defensively over OKST.

WVA hasnt been tested. Tennessee and K St. are both quite weak at the moment, but that being said its 2 power 5 teams they have handled pretty easy. The offense is very good, no secret. They missed week 3 with a weather cancellation and this is their 1st true road game. Last week they dominated K St. 35-6. Snyder has absolutely no offensive weapons this year. They also shut down Tennessee in their opener, Vols offense is inept. WVA has won 4 straight in this series, would have covered this # in the last 3 games. 

I kind of like seeing an alleged consensus on WVA while the line moves down. Not a huge fan of B12 action and neither of these coaches generally gets me pulling out my wallet. Should be a good game to watch. Ill take the team with homefield, the points, and that has best quality win between the two.

Tech +4.5

Confidence level: 2/5

As I have said two other times in these posts, I am gonna try to breakdown/give thoughts on 15 games that I pick as part of a contest. These games are pre-determined, I just get to take a side.

Going to play UNC out of these 3. The other two, probably not. 

Let me know if you have a take on any game. Why Im on the wrong side...ect 

Texas -7 @ Kansas St. - 330 pm Est

Weather: Mid 60s - light wind 10-15 mph- precipitation unlikely. non-factor.

Breakdown: I am big Snyder fan. K-State as big road dogs have been some of my biggest plays over the years. Have not liked their spots so far this year. They have been dominated @ WVA and at home v Miss St. Totally non-competitive. They came from behind in week one to nip South Dakota by a couple points. Offensively they have looked terrible. New OC this year, new play caller. They have looked to go a little more WC/pro-style with less designed QB runs. It worked played well and Snyder pulled the Soph QB @ WVU last week; going back to a Junior who played last year and is supposed to be a little quicker/better with RPO ect. He didnt do much down the stretch last week. The strength of the team is O-line right now and the system does not take advantage. The backs, including QB are not strong. 

Traditionally I would be on K St in this spot. Especially with this scheduling scenario for Texas. Just coming off big wins v. USC and TCU...looking ahead to Oklahoma next week. Serious let-down spot in my opinion. K-St is 7-3 SU last 10 in the series.

Usually can rely on a K St. defense being pretty scrappy and forcing some turns...but Miss. St ran right through them week 2, and I see Texas employing a similar scheme and talent level. Hermann has already had one let down this year; can he afford another in this spot? Texas D has been pretty impressive the L2 and I cannot really see this K St offense breaking through against them. Ehlinger has progressed nicely the last 3 games but now on the road where last he and the team took crap all over Maryland's field. 

Texas is pretty beat up. Long injury report. Mostly defensive players. But UT has always had a big talent edge on paper here. Now it seems they may have the coaching and mind-set back it. I land on Texas here because I have seen nothing I can back out of K State right now. 

Take: Texas -7 

Confidence level 3/5

Not really insight but speculation sure. This Lawrence is a big recruit. He has been playing a few series here and there this season and looked good.

I do not see the team revolting against this kid, or Dabo in any way really. They compete with Bama and surely know well what they have done since subbing in a younger better throwing QB.

Here comes the rest of the card Im playing in this pool/contest. Actual bets as indicated. Hoping for some scrutiny / any angles somebody has, especially for the games in BOLD with **. Thanks and GL to all

Pittsburgh @ UCF - 14.5 - 330 EST

Taking Pitt and 2+ TD here. I see the line has crept down to 13 / 13.5 which wipes substantial value. 

Whenever I see UCF they seem to rely heavily on short passing/screen game. This is a decent matchup for Narduzzi and his style IMO. They press on the line routinely play a hard bump and run man. If they let the guys play some (in Orlando) I can see them giving this offense some trouble. Pitt is a level of talent higher than they are accustomed to, but maybe not by too much. Pitt coming off a loss @ UNC. Not a great scheduling spot but this doesnt seem like adequate respect for the Power 5 team. UCF plays notoriously weak schedule and this is easily this teams and this coaches toughest test so far. 

Pitt +14.5 - Confidence 2/5 - no bet

Michigan -12.5 @ Northwestern - 4:30pm

Weather: Mid 50's - partly cloudy - non factor

NW coming off a bye and I like Fitzgerald in that spot. Had their starting RB and one of their best players really "retire" this week. Michigan / Harbaugh have history of dismantling bottom half of the conference with easy covers. Line is moving to 14 and maybe higher with UM money coming in. Series has not been played in last 2 years. Last they played was in Ann Arbor and Mich rolled 38-0. I expected more than what I have seen from NW this year. Offense looks sluggish compared to last year and D was torched by Duke. For me I try to look advantages that one teams style/strengths matchup with the others style and strengths. Then I try to look for intangible situational factors effecting effort/motivation. 

I like the situation of Fitzgerald at home with 2 weeks to prepare for a big game. His teams repeatedly steal games from blue chip Big 10 opponents over the years.(Mich St. last year, Penn St and Wisky 2 years before) Stylistically I also feel like NW toughness against the run plays well here. Northwestern is proficient throwing the ball, but this UM pass D is legit. NW run game, which wasnt great, took a big hit this week. Hard to see NW getting to 20. Tough call, but they are all supposed to be. At kick getting 14+ is much more attractive.

Northwestern +12.5 - Confidence level 2/5

Florida @ Mississippi St. - 8 - 6pm Est

To me this line seems to stink. Everything seems to be pointing to a bet on Florida. They looked better last week than Miss St. They played common opponent Kentucky tougher than Miss St. They are running in Miss St. coach with plenty of inside knowledge of the personnel ect. Catching more than a TD? Miss St. does have substantial yardage advantage both for and allowed. Florida came out hard against hapless Tennessee last week, doesnt say much but atleast it was on the road. Hoping that with the coach and having its most experienced team in years will equate to Florida holding it together on the road vs. quality opponent. 

Florida +8 - Confidence level 2/5

Iowa St. @ TCU -10.5

Really like Campbell and Cyclones covering big #s on the road. This is not as many as you might hope for given TCU slipping these last 2 weeks. TCU really blew their wad against the buckeyes 2 weeks ago. Looked like shit @ Texas last week. Now coming home to lick their wounds. Last 2 years TCU is 2-9-1 as home chalk. Cyclones are 6-3 as road dogs. But, TCU has won and covered the last 3 H2H and crushed the last 2 times at home. Ho Humm...TCU banged up after 2 tough games and im betting on a flat performance. 

Iowa St. + 10.5 - 2/5 Confidence

Virginia Tech @ Duke -3.5

Duke has really impressed. Love the coach. At home at night. Duke's homefield adv? not great. Actually too bad VT had to blow it last week, as they are sure to come in focused. VT does not at all seem to have the type of D the program is known for.  Duke has totally impressed in all phases so far. Cruising @ NW and Baylor. Experienced team returning and QB playing very well. Had a patsy last week just like VT, except they did what your supposed to. VT win v FSU isnt as impressive in hindsight. 

Duke -3.5 / 4.5 ** - Conf level 4/5 - Im playing this one

Ohio St. -4.5 @ Penn St. 

Penn St. covered this # each of the last 2 games. Outstanding homefield adv here. Haskins is sweet but this atmosphere? It effects most players. 1st road trip of the season. Ohio State's defense is not as dominant at the moment as it has been recently IMO. Gave up plenty of points to Oregon St to open the season (30+ i do not recall exactly, but too many) Gave up alot of yards to TCU, but forced some turns and gave up a misleading 28. Give the points. Should be a shootout. 

Penn St +4.5 - Confidence level - 2/5

Thanks for the write up

FIU had like 10 yards after 3Q. Miami played over 25 freshmen in the FIU game. FIU scored 17 in like a 6 minute span where Miami didn't give a crap.

Thanks for the info regarding rotation employed by Canes last week. 

I am always leery when a # jumps out at me as this one has. The UNC rush D is very weak. 

In the final analysis i basically come out thinking I am buying UNC stock pretty low right here. 

Good luck to all!