39-19 YTD - Lets Discuss This Card

South Carolina @ Kentucky - 1 - 730pm EST

Weather: Partly cloudy - upper 50's - no systems forecast Fri-Sunday. 

Breakdown: This is probably the hardest game for me to take a side on. Had South Carolina pretty big last week @ Vandy. They were coming off a bye and put their best foot forward. Kentucky has been a great story. Two of the programs biggest wins in recent history @ Florida and v. Miss St. Kentucky managed to physically control both of those games. Gamecocks did not look like a Muschamp/top notch Defense when Georgia ran it right through them a few weeks back. B2B road games for SC while Kentucky is home for the 3rd straight week. Kentucky has WON 4 STRAIGHT in this series both SU and ATS. Taking the home field and the team that has won 4 straight. 

Kentucky -1 Confidence level - 2/5

Stanford @ Notre Dame -4.5 - 730pm EST

Stanford and Shaw are a team I have followed closely and play frequently. Like their style of play in general. Their win last week was one of the freakiest luck fests I have witnessed. Oregon outplayed them in every phase and should have won/covered easy. Offense looks weak. Love is not 100%. The offensive line is not quite what it has been in the past. B2B tough road games for the Tree and they are going down in this one. ND looked the best I have seen them in a while last week. Offense clicking hard @ Wake with new QB installed. I see Stanford and Michigan as similar programs with similar schemes and talent levels right now. ND handled Mich at home to open the season; and now their offense looks significantly improved. ND defense have been quite solid. Michigan's run game did little. They return 9 starters off a team that gave up 21ppg; the fewest for the program in 5 years. Notre Dame easy in this one; and I am one to normally jump at Stanford catching significant points. 

Notre Dame -4.5 / 6 - Confidence level 4/5 - bet it 

BYU @ Washington -17 - 8:30pm EST - 530pm local kick 

Scares me with such a consensus on the Cougs here, cause I like them plenty also. Defense is coming around. QB is an old man with alot of experience playing in big games. I do not support the book's evaluation of UW right now. Their lines have been high IMO. Last week they were laying a similar number to Arizona St and never sniffed a cover. They have a new offensive coordinator (former NFL QB coach) this season, and they seem to be employing a more conservative approach, explosive plays are coming far less frequently than last year. No H2H in the last 5 years. BYU is a step up defensively compared to most Pac 12 programs, especially the lower tier. I am backing BYU with confidence.

BYU +17 - Conf. level - 4/5 - bet it

bol this weekend 

Last 2 games quickly and a wrap up. 

Ole Miss @ LSU -13.5 - death valley at night -715pm EST 

Im laying the points here at home. I know its alot. OLE Miss is very soft on defense. THey cannot rush the passer right now at all. Front 7 is A little better against the run. Both TT and of course BAMA had their way with the unit. 

Offensively Miss is stronger. Very strong at WR. The O-Line is also a strength - but they wont be running the ball much here IMO with this crowd and front 7 opposite. RB is a relative weakness. LSU is clicking right now. Have looked amazing on a neutral feild v. Miami and @ Auburn. This is the first meaningful home game of the year and this crowd will be a serious advantage against a team that will need to consistently convert through the air to keep it close. Dont see it happening for Ole Miss. Turnovers will be a factor. Crowd will be a factor. LSU opens and closes strong for a cover. 

LSU -13.5  - Confidence level 2/5

Oregon -3.5 @ Cal - 1030pm EST 

First thing that jumps here for me is the apparent reverse line movement. opened at 3.5 with a wide apparent consensus on the ducks. Yet the line is now creeping down across a key # to 2.5? This is a red flag for me. I respect this Cal program and what the coach has done with the defense especially. They return alot of players from an overperforming team last year.  Situationally the motivation factor will be advantage Cal. They are coming home off a bye and Oregon must have some level of deflation after that 4th Q debacle last week. Now on the road v a much less prestigious opponent. But you really do have to respect what Oregon and this new coach did last week. they dominated Stanford for 3+ quarters. Defense / front 7 looked very impresssive. A much better coached team than last year IMO. First thoughts were to play Oregon big on the bounce back. But the reverse line movement and the scheduling advantage giving me pause. But still cant see them losing 2 in a row. 

Oregon -3.5/2.5 - confidence level 3/5 (betting this at 2.5 like the man wants me too)

Miami + 18.5 - like it plenty - bet with local 

Syracuse +22 - weather scares me - revenge scares me - low confidence -no bet

Texas Tech +4.5  - game unlikely to be decided by less than a TD - Taking the homefield - no bet 

Pitt +14.5 - like the matchup - If I could get more than 2 TD now I would bet it. 

Texas -7 / 8.5 - Two teams moving opposite directions IMO. H2H history not especially relevant. KSU is down. Offense no                                  rhythm. I bet this one.

Northwestern +12.5 - playing the coach and situation. Can NW run defense hold up? Just enough I say.

Florida +8 - defense makes enough plays to keep it close. Mullen is a helpful angle here IMO. 

Iowa St. +10.5 - TCU out of gas and banged up. 

Duke -3.5/4.5 - love the coach in game. QB is clicking. VT defense is down. I bet this one.

Penn St. +4.5 - PSU 16-0 at home run. Covered this # the last 2 times out against OSU. Big homefield adv here. OSU is a public team that I rarely play on. 

Kentucky -1 - hard game to pick. Taking homefield and the team that has won the last sever H2H meetings. 

Notre Dame -4.5 /6 - The Tree's luck runs out against the Irish. I bet this one. 

BYU +17 - probably my favorite play of the week. Scared some by huge consensus on the Cougs. 

LSU -13.5 - 

Oregon -3.5 / 2.5 - scary reverse line movement prevented me from betting this with the local. I would have preferred it stuck at 3.5. Cal's coach is solid and coming off a bye. 

Those are the 15 games on the contest this week. 

Week 1 : 11-3-1

Week 2: 8-7

Week 3: 11-2 (2 games cancelled)

Week 4: 9-6

Due for a subpar week it would seem so be cautious as always. Best of Luck.

Gotta turn this thing in late this afternoon so I am waiting with bated breath for people to drop some knowledge on me and change my mind.

North Carolina + 18.5 -  

Syracuse +22 -  

Texas Tech +4.5  t 

Pitt +14.5 -  

Texas -7 / 8.5 - .

Northwestern +12.5 -  

Florida +8 - . 

Iowa St. +10.5 - 

Duke -3.5/4.5 -  

Penn St. +4.5 -  

Kentucky -1 -. 

Notre Dame -4.5 /6 -  

BYU +17 - . 

LSU -13.5 - 

Oregon -3.5 / 2.5 -  

9-6 ATS this week. Ill take it. 

2-3 on bets with local. Seem to be a good volume player right now. Still liable to get trapped at the top of the card.

One sure solution, bet more volume with no variance in amount. 

Brings the 5 week total to 48-25 ATS. 

This coming week looks super tasty IMO...

Nice write-ups! Appreciate the insight and congrats on the week

Nice job man, definitely was a tough week to pick ATS at least for me 

JimKelly and Jdiperrio - thanks guys. Texas was a big thumb in my eye. Up 19-0 at half and refuse to score a point in the 2nd half to get "back-doored". I knew they might be taking it kind of easy with OU on deck, but can I get a FG for *&*& sake.