Personally I could not care less who you bet on, but Alabama minus anything less than two touchdowns is the easiest bet of the entire bowl season, because it is far a away the most predictable.
I now you don't want to believe it, but this game will play out exactly like the SEC Championship Game minus the punt return and the Hail Mary. Alabama minus anything less than 2 touchdowns is an absolute gift from the oddsmakers. For the love of God, take the free money!
Personally I could not care less who you bet on, but Alabama minus anything less than two touchdowns is the easiest bet of the entire bowl season, because it is far a away the most predictable.
I now you don't want to believe it, but this game will play out exactly like the SEC Championship Game minus the punt return and the Hail Mary. Alabama minus anything less than 2 touchdowns is an absolute gift from the oddsmakers. For the love of God, take the free money!
Football is game about matchups. That is concept that most gamblers don't seem to grasp. In this game Michigan State's offense versus Alabama defense is a complete mismatch in favor of Alabama. The Spartans offense, which struggled mightily against an Iowa defense that probably has zero future 1st round draft picks, is not on the same level as an Alabama defense that probably has 5 or 6 future 1st round draft picks.
The last two touchdowns Alabama's defense has given up is a ricochet pass, and a Hail Mary, and it's probably going to take about the same type of play from Michigan State's offense to find the end zone in this game. The chance of them mounting a methodical touchdown drive against this defense like they did against Iowa is pretty much zero.
If you're betting that Michigan State has faced defenses on par with Alabama's defense, you're gong to lose you're money because they haven't. While I don't think Michigan State will get shutout in this game, it definitely has shutout potential. Michigan State will stay as close as their defense can keep it. Ultimately however, like LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn and Florida before them, their defense will get pulverized in the 2nd half because they simply don't have the depth to withstand the relentless pounding for 4 quarters.
To illustrate, I was watching the Florida game with a kid who is somewhat of a football novice. Right at the end of the 3rd quarter the announcers mentioned that Henry had 92 yards rushing. I told the kid that Henry would have between 180 and 200 yards rushing before it was over. I stressed that he would have AT LEAST 180 yards. He finished with 189. The exact same paradigm will play out in this game.
I would actually like a Michigan State 1st half bet if I could get +10 like I could with Florida, but that's never going to happen. I have to get over a touchdown to even consider a Sparty 1st half play, and I just don't see that coming to fruition. Sparty's defense will keep this game close in the 1st half, but they will get brutalized in the 2nd half.
Lay the 11 with Alabama, and hammer the crap out of Alabama (2nd half) if the game is somewhat close at the half - which is very likely.
You are absolutely correct . . . I had the OVER, and it covered with 3:21 remaining in the 3rd quarter. So if I bet OVER 58 last season knowing that Ohio State would likely get into the 30s by themselves, that should clue you in that there is no comparison on any level with what happened in the Ohio State game last year, and the match-up with Michigan State this year. Yet you will be one of the sheep that will be lead to the slaughtered because you will foolishly bet Michigan State this season based on last season's Ohio State game results.
The only Michigan State bet that makes any sense at all is +6 (1st half). That is a reasonable bet, even though it is not one that I would make. I would need at least +7.5 to even consider the play.
So if you're really feeling really froggy on Michigan State, do yourself a favor and bet them 1st half. That bet at least has a fighting chance.
Actually I have an affinity for winning money wagering on college football, and on this game I will win and you will lose. It's really that simple.
Actually I have an affinity for winning money wagering on college football, and on this game I will win and you will lose. It's really that simple.
** Alabama's is not one dimensional, but they are definitely more proficient in the running game.
** Yes, Alabama has the worst QB in the playoffs, but it will only matter if a team can force Alabama to play from behind.
** Alabama has never had a great QB under Saban in the past. Nothing has really changed there. Again, this really won't be much of a factor unless a team can force Alabama to play from behind.
** Alabama minus anything less than 2 TDs is a gift because of the match-up. Alabama could not have handpicked a better matchup for themselves than Michigan State (or even Iowa for that matter). So for people who actually understand football match-ups, Alabama is a very easy play. This game will play out exactly like the Florida game.
I have not broken down potential future games with Oklahoma or Clemson, but either of those teams is a completely different animal. Both teams have athletic, play-making QBs that can threaten a defense with the run and pass (much more similar to what Alabama saw versus Ohio State).
As far as stacking the box, pretty much everyone has tried it and have failed, and it really won't be any different with Clemson or Oklahoma. Absent one of these teams having a double digit lead going into the 4th quarter, the same 4th quarter fate awaits them: Henry will rush for about 100 yards and two touchdowns while Alabama dominates time-of-possession. No team in the playoff has a defense that can withstand the onslaught of Alabama's running game for 4 quarters. The only way either Clemson or Oklahoma beat Alabama is to do what Ole Miss did: get out to a sizeable lead and force Alabama to play catch-up. If they can't do that, they will lose, particularly the 4th quarter.
** Alabama's passing blocking is suspect at times, and certainly can be exploited if the opposition can get a lead and force Alabama to air it out, which is clearly not their game.
** Absent some very freakish circumstances, Michigan State has no chance of getting any type of significant lead to force Alabama to deviate from their game plan. In fact, Sparty will be fortunate to score at all.
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