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ALABAMA +10 WRITE UP TOO FOLLOW!

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Brandon303:

One other note on Florida is I truly believe that Tim Tebow is on a mission since that loss to Ole Miss. Well thats completely obvious...he is on a mission. That speech that he gave after that game you could tell that Tebow felt just awful that they lost that game and he has meant business ever since. He will continue this into the SEC championship and Florida will win by at least 17. 

Great point Brandon. FL has been a dominating team since Tebows speech. I just feel that without Harvins, Tebow will be forced to throw more. I see a big problem if Tebow is pressured. His numbers passing our good, but, I feel that his good passing numbers are a direct result of Harvins and the run game. If Alabama shuts down FLs run game(alabama is top 5 in the nation in rush defense) I feel Tebw will make some key turnovers.

 

Thanks for sharing!

 
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Posted: #27
Nice write up BUT the main issue (which torpedoes your view point) is you seem to be a HOMER. Its a biased viewpoint and therefore your analysis' credibility is strongly diminished.
 
CHOMP....CHOMP....CHOMP....
 
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Posted: #28
Take your left arm and straighten it, then raise it a little
 
Now take your right arm, straighten that one too, lower it a little
 
Now, turn your palms to face each other....that's it.
 
How bring your hands/arms together in a quick motion and say CHOMP, CHOMP, CHOMP the fat elephant. 
 
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Posted: #29
Yeah don't get me wrong Harvin being out does scare me. If he is not available to go, then I will still play Florida but it will just be a small play and I will put more units on Oklahoma instead. 

I mean to take these numbers out of your lineup can not make you overly confident backing Florida. 

61 carries for 538 yards and 9 TD's, that is an average of 8.8 a carry. 

Also 35 receptions for 595 yards and 7 TD's, good for 17 yards per catch. 

So needless to say losing him will make a big difference in this offense, especially vs Bama. 


 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Etrigan:

Nice write up BUT the main issue (which torpedoes your view point) is you seem to be a HOMER. Its a biased viewpoint and therefore your analysis' credibility is strongly diminished.
 
CHOMP....CHOMP....CHOMP....

if you look at my other postings i am not a bama fan. I am a dawg fan. (which I guess makes me a bama fan because i hate the gators!) but, i truly see a good value if you can get Alabama at +8 or better. I have tried to show a non-biased opinion.

Good luck, though....We will see come Saturday

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Brandon303:

Yeah don't get me wrong Harvin being out does scare me. If he is not available to go, then I will still play Florida but it will just be a small play and I will put more units on Oklahoma instead. 

I mean to take these numbers out of your lineup can not make you overly confident backing Florida. 

61 carries for 538 yards and 9 TD's, that is an average of 8.8 a carry. 

Also 35 receptions for 595 yards and 7 TD's, good for 17 yards per catch. 

So needless to say losing him will make a big difference in this offense, especially vs Bama. 


 

This is by far the best facts i have seen to help back bama. If Harvins was palying it would be tough to take bama. i really believe that he can effect FL that much.

 

Thanks for the stats....

 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Thechad10:

Great point Brandon. FL has been a dominating team since Tebows speech. I just feel that without Harvins, Tebow will be forced to throw more. I see a big problem if Tebow is pressured. His numbers passing our good, but, I feel that his good passing numbers are a direct result of Harvins and the run game. If Alabama shuts down FLs run game(alabama is top 5 in the nation in rush defense) I feel Tebw will make some key turnovers.

 

Thanks for sharing!



Mr. Harvin will play in this game guaranteed.  You say without him they have trouble running the ball  He is a wide receiver who runs the ball only a handful of times a game.  Rainey, Demps and Moody if needed can carry the load.  The bigger key would be Antwine who is doubtful as of now for that game.  Harvin will play guaranteed but shouldn't be too concerned about him running the ball really.  They do have legitimate running backs other than a wide receiver.  Do realize he is a big factor in the running game but I think they could manage.  Rainey 8 yards a carry, Demps 9.6 yards a carry.  Not to mention they have this guy who plays that QB position who isn't too shabby with the ball in his hands either.  If Harvin is too hurt to play hurts them more passing rather than running.  Thats all I got to say.  I will have a write up later on why Florida will blow them out.
 
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Posted: #33

Quote Originally Posted by Whodeysb09:



Mr. Harvin will play in this game guaranteed.  You say without him they have trouble running the ball  He is a wide receiver who runs the ball only a handful of times a game.  Rainey, Demps and Moody if needed can carry the load.  The bigger key would be Antwine who is doubtful as of now for that game.  Harvin will play guaranteed but shouldn't be too concerned about him running the ball really.  They do have legitimate running backs other than a wide receiver.  Do realize he is a big factor in the running game but I think they could manage.  Rainey 8 yards a carry, Demps 9.6 yards a carry.  Not to mention they have this guy who plays that QB position who isn't too shabby with the ball in his hands either.  If Harvin is too hurt to play hurts them more passing rather than running.  Thats all I got to say.  I will have a write up later on why Florida will blow them out.

 

Your right whoodey: 

61 carries for 538 yards and 9 TD's, that is an average of 8.8 a carry. 

thats not a running back stat
 
you got too be kiding me, this guy sets up those backs(demps,moody,etc), you almost have to double team him which sets these other backs up for big runs. If Harvins doesnt play, dont be suprised too see FL with less than a 100 yards rushing!!
 
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Posted: #34
the whole world will be on Florida. I just need to be convinced that Alabama can pull this off
 
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Posted: #35
On the other side but good luck anyway 
 
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Posted: #36
Florida put up 31 of their 45 points after Harvin came out of the game (about twenty minutes into the game).  They also rushed for about 180 yards after Harvin was out of the game.  Also, you are putting way to much emphasis on the Ole Miss game.  By that logic PSU should be a 20 point fave over USC in the Rose Bowl (just as a simple example).  I do think the Gators will cover, but not enough to make more than a small play, I'm also small on the over.  But I've got a futures bet from after the UF-LSU game, and I might also insure it with a 'Bama ML play.  I decided to put down the futures bet after it became apparent that UF was going to feature some other backs, instead of relying on Tebow like last year.  Also note that Sagarin would have this game as UF -10.92 points (assuming neutral field).  Although having Harvin will certainly help, they had no problem spreading the ball around to the other numerous playmakers Rainey for 97 yards, Demps for 89 yards, Tebow rushed for 80, even Moody ran for 40, Hernandez caught for 61, Murphy for 49, Nelson for 36, etc... against the Noles, in a monsoon.  FSU isn't dominant, but they are an above average team from an ACC that is full of above average but not great teams.  Auburn is dog shite.  GLA
 
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Posted: #37
Florida put up over 50 points in both the games last year that Harvin did not play in when he had chronic sinus pains. He does not make the offense go, lol. The defense and special teams make Florida go, they have a better defense than bama but no one notices, but the Offense is so explosive thats all you hear about. Im not gonna be a homer and im not gonna say Bama cant win, Im just saying from a neutral gambling and capping point.... Betting on bama could get you burned real quick in this one.
 
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Posted: #38
Is this a homer pick for Bama
 
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Posted: #39

I am not a homer. I really think that +10 is just too many points for an SEC championship team. I have tried to explain to the best of my ability the reason why.

I agree with all of you. FL looks impressive, however, they have not played anybody that Alabama has not played. The SEC had a down year this go around.

Please pick FL and drive the line even higher.

I personally hate FL. I am a BULLDAWG!

I just see a lot of value in Alabama getting 10. They are undefeated and ranked number 1 in the country. They are not use to losing and I think the mentality of being undefeated carries them to an EASY cover. Ball control and a great Coach in Saban keeps this a CLOSE game,therefore, an ESAY cover.

GOOD LUCK TOO ALL!!!!

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by bamahomer92:

fla is powerful on off.
 bamas only glimpse to pull this off is for kevin steele to bring extreme constant pressure on tebow non stop.
he should look at last years bowl game films on how michigan shut down tebow and the gators. and work from there.
 
if they create about 3 turnovers into points they should  have a shot depending they dont turnover the ball themselves.
 
steele has prepared natl Ds before and been successful.
 
lets hope he has one more trick up his sleeve for this one

 

agreed....my whole thread is about BAMA pressuring Tebow. I truly think BAMA's D can get to Tebow. Forcing turnovers.

 

Guys, If Harvin is out, BAMA will control FL's run game forcing Tebow too pass. I know Harvins is not their main running back but he allows for these big backs to have large games by destracting the defense. If Harvins is out, Tebow willl  be forced to throw earlier than he wants. Tebow is a good passer ONCE the running game is established. Look for an int 0r 2 early in this game. 

 
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Posted: #41
Chad-
 
Well done, man, with your write-ups.  Excellent work. 
 
Haven't made any bet on this game (leaning to 'Bama, but high line does have me "thinking" that Vegas knows something I don't), but please keep info coming.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

Chad-
 
Well done, man, with your write-ups.  Excellent work. 
 
Haven't made any bet on this game (leaning to 'Bama, but high line does have me "thinking" that Vegas knows something I don't), but please keep info coming.
 
Cheers

Thank you fo the response

This is my first REAL post. I have had a lot of feedback. Everyone at covers has shared their opinions and thoughts. It has been a wonderful experience. I will continue to post on this thread as I find out more useful information.

 
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Posted: #43
I am drooling out of both sides of my mouth. I guess that means my chair is level. Alabama +10 ??? Take the points now. Alabama will win outright.
 
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Posted: #44
nice write up Chad, takin a hard look here, but your reasoning has me leaning toward the tide,,,10.5 would prompt me to make the call no doubt, my local uses scores and odds and we are holding firm at 10 - keeping a constant eye for possible movement of course !
 
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Posted: #45
I admit----I suck as a gambler and know jack diddly about what goes in to making these numbers.
 
On Saturday, when it was obvious that both 'Bama and Florida were going to win their rivalry games and set up this hyped up clash, I figured on a line of Florida -2.5ish?
 
And I see farking Florida -10??????!!!!!!!!!!!  What the hell is Vegas seeing here?  Is this damn game fixed?  This line feels 7-8 points too high. 
 
This high line has me worried-----Vegas doesn't hand out free money, ever.
 
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Posted: #46
i threw some money on the gators to win the national championship before the season starrted
 
im hoping florida beats alabama in the sec championship game, which i think they will
 
you said alabama is getting points, 10??? and theyre ranked #1???
 
does that make any sense?????
same thing with texas tech #2getting points from #5 oklahoma
and oklahoma destroys them
i think florida does the same to a weaker alabama team
 
good luck
 
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Posted: #47
I could see OU -7 home vs Red Raiders, cause let's face it, Texas was whupping their asses by end of game---------TT won (deservedly so) only cause they got off to a blistering start and held on for dear life at end.
 
Texas Tech ain't anywhere close to Alabama.
 
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Posted: #48
No way is this a blowout. Alabama has a great defense and will keep them in the game. You can run the ball on Florida, and Alabama's offensive line will control the line of scrimmage and the clock. Florida may win , but the 10 points is a gift in my opinion.
 
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Posted: #49
wtf!!!!....are u kidding me!!!!.......i dont care shit about fla running da score up on its opp.....i dont care who fla has on there team....hell. put whoever u want on there!!!....giving nick saban 10 points!!!!..oh!!....im all over it!!!!.....first of all gents this is going 2 be a nick versus myers gm..great offensive coach going against a great defensive coach!!!....u ppl forget quick wat saban has done 2 spread off. when lsu won the national title who did they play?...okl....and what type of offense did they run?.....a spread....and did okl win?.....no!!!!.....alot of ppl get into the hype of teams scoring alot of points and think they will do everybody like that...ppl!!!....ALA is a GOOD FOOTBALL TEAM!!!....they have imo the best offensive line in the country!!!.....this is a huge mismatch for fla!!!.....fla hasnt seen a physical or more dominant line like this all year!!!...nick is great at disguising his defense, cody will hold the middle down so there will be no inside runnin by tebow....evertything will have to go to the outside which im sure ala will be prepared for....fla plays alot of 1on1 defense...who will guard H.JONES?.....everybody talking about demps, rainy, moody and harvin what coffee,ingram and arenas...these guys have come up big all year and expect nothing different....they say DEFENSE wins championship!!!...i like saban "D" 2 cover n this gm easy!!....this line will drop!!....i promise!!!!
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by mrlucky30:

wtf!!!!....are u kidding me!!!!.......i dont care shit about fla running da score up on its opp.....i dont care who fla has on there team....hell. put whoever u want on there!!!....giving nick saban 10 points!!!!..oh!!....im all over it!!!!.....first of all gents this is going 2 be a nick versus myers gm..great offensive coach going against a great defensive coach!!!....u ppl forget quick wat saban has done 2 spread off. when lsu won the national title who did they play?...okl....and what type of offense did they run?.....a spread....and did okl win?.....no!!!!.....alot of ppl get into the hype of teams scoring alot of points and think they will do everybody like that...ppl!!!....ALA is a GOOD FOOTBALL TEAM!!!....they have imo the best offensive line in the country!!!.....this is a huge mismatch for fla!!!.....fla hasnt seen a physical or more dominant line like this all year!!!...nick is great at disguising his defense, cody will hold the middle down so there will be no inside runnin by tebow....evertything will have to go to the outside which im sure ala will be prepared for....fla plays alot of 1on1 defense...who will guard H.JONES?.....everybody talking about demps, rainy, moody and harvin what coffee,ingram and arenas...these guys have come up big all year and expect nothing different....they say DEFENSE wins championship!!!...i like saban "D" 2 cover n this gm easy!!....this line will drop!!....i promise!!!!

Ha ha ha.....love the passion mrlucky.

H. Jones will be the X FACTOR in this game

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