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ALABAMA +10 WRITE UP TOO FOLLOW!

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Posted: #51
Can anyone tell me then what the f is Vegas doing by putting a 10 on this game?
 
Makes no sense to me, at all, unless this game is fixed to land higher than 10.
 
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Posted: #52
The question is whether or not Florida can stop Alabama's RB Glen Coffee. The man is strong and fast, and Alabama's offense will depend on the play-action to him, to get their team going.

I like Alabama's defense. They are quick, gang-tackle, and play in the right spot at the right time.

With all that said, this is suppose to be a good tight game, but Florida is going to shred Alabama's team.




 
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Posted: #53
  Yep, the refs are in on this
 
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Posted: #54
I don't think so, but best of luck.
 
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Posted: #55
the line is set at 10 because vegas knows the public likes fla and will give up the ten.....trust me...that soread will drop before gametime...vegas wont trick me....i dont care if it goes up...i like bama!!!....ex.texastech played baylor and the line went from 20 to 23...i never once backed off baylor cause the line went up...i bet more money!!!
 
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Posted: #56
Line is moving.......-9.5 now.
 
I believe that Bama can win this game outright! 
 
For those whom are skeptical, you can still get tremendous value at Bama +9......
 
Monday write-up on bama coming later today....
 
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Posted: #57
there will be a new write-up everyday leading to this showdown
 
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Posted: #58
Just asking around to yahoos at work.......
 
seems like the peanut gallery likes 'Bama +10-----the average yahoo is saying, "10?  That's too many points."
 
I think Vegas is laying a trap here-----Vegas wants the public on The Tide.
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

I admit----I suck as a gambler and know jack diddly about what goes in to making these numbers.
 
On Saturday, when it was obvious that both 'Bama and Florida were going to win their rivalry games and set up this hyped up clash, I figured on a line of Florida -2.5ish?
 
And I see farking Florida -10??????!!!!!!!!!!!  What the hell is Vegas seeing here?  Is this damn game fixed?  This line feels 7-8 points too high. 
 
This high line has me worried-----Vegas doesn't hand out free money, ever.


Bingo man.  Pretty much took the words out of my mouth.  Although some nice writeups hyping up BAMA, my gut is leaning toward FL.  I was also hoping and expected a -3 ish line and when I saw it opened at 10 made me like FL even more.  Hopefully it drops to 7 since most seem to be on BAMA (wishful thinking).

Somebody knows something.  I'm going with the somebody on this one.
 
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Posted: #60
Florida's stats are useless to look at..... Florida has given up TD's /Yards with 2nd and 3rd string players ....They get such a huge lead they play the whole roster Urban Meyer has played all 84 players 3x this season..... Alabama on the otherhand.. has been playing there 1st string all the way down to the wire even vs teams like ARK St and tulane They could of lost to LSU/OLE Miss /Kentucky.... If meyer would of keep tebow and harvin on the field.... till the end of the 3rd/4th qtr Floridas stats would be astronomical..... and same goes with defense Florida has the # 1 ranked Red zone D and Redzone O the only time they didnt score in the redzone is when they took a knee agaisnt Tenn...... thats pretty impressive I think florida wins in a blow out.... 41-9 i might be crazy for think this i just really see it happening There D is for real...... Im a FSU Fan..... and hate to say it... but Fsu got lucky to even score a Field goal  with the field position and turn overs and if it wasnt raining florida would of hung 70 on us and we probably wouldnt of have scored.... I dont think alabama's D is any better than FSU/SC so with that being said be careful with your money and just play the over...... and tease florida with oklahoma... Seems alot safer than just hopeing Alabama can keep up.........
 
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Posted: #61
          nice writeup the chad im not even sure i will play the game. but i will say  that coach saban can tell his players .hey were #1 and nobody thinks so. great motivational tool for the players.  no free money given out by vegas guys. line is only set to get even action. apparently the public loves fla. it doesnt make  either side a sure thing. there is no such thing. ty  gl. nice thread
 
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Posted: #62
You composed a great write-up with lots of good information, lets start there. One specific I wanted to comment on though:
 
You seem to put a lot of weight on the defensive stats; stating the game will be won or lost "in teh trenches." Now, this may be true, but lets for a moment consider that Floridas defense is on teh field much more than alabamas.
 
this is not to take anything away from a big, stout 'bama defense, but as with oklahoma and texas (naming top teams only here for reference) but these offenses move the ball through the air and with large "gashing" plays with the run. This leaves their defense (florida's) on the field for more plays than Alabamas. Yards per play is another factor to consider here, and alabam is tough there, but again floridas defense is built for speed and TD prevention where bama is a grind it out, physical style defense.
 
What does this all mean?? I dont know, but I thoguht it was worth noting.  Good write-up and GL on your pick!
 
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Posted: #63
Honestly could see this game either way.  During Alabamas undefeated season i kept waiting for their inexperience to show but have yet to really see it.  Will it be this week? I dont know  John Paker Wilson does have plenty of experience however,  but it is very hard to consider him an elite qb like Tebow.   Alabama plays a very smart and methodical game led by one of the best coaches in college football and that alone could keep them in the game with this very experienced Florida team.  Florida on the other hand is on a rampage.  After losing to Ole Miss(big ole miss fan so that was great) they have been dominating games on both sides of the ball.  And once Florida has the lead they do not let up and are one of the strongest finishers compared to Alabama known to be one of the worst finishers in the SEC.  If Alabama gets down it is going depend on Jp Wilson to not let the game get out of hand.  If Alabama gets up, however, they will give florida the run attack with the twenty million rbs they use and easily cover at the end of the game.  With all that being said i will say the final score is 27-17 and everyone pushes their bet          
 
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Posted: #64
Chad, great write up....It annoying to see people calling you a homer just for giving your thoughts in a write up that I don't think shows any hints of that at all.  It seems that your write up hit a nerve with some homers on the other side.....
 
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by Bucks10:

No way is this a blowout. Alabama has a great defense and will keep them in the game. You can run the ball on Florida, and Alabama's offensive line will control the line of scrimmage and the clock. Florida may win , but the 10 points is a gift in my opinion.

lol who can run the ball on UF???? Have yet to see it and sure as hell dont see it comin now. Another thing for the kool aid punch bowl bama backers, when was the last time Bama played in a championship? hell even went to one? 3/4 of UF's team has already won 2 rings and one being in this game, they are a well oiled machine built for games like this, if they put up 45 in tropica storms against a FASTER FSU defense,what do you think they wont do indoors on the fast turf?Against an overrated and average defense with good coaching? Yall gonna be some dissappointed people come Saturday night, its a trap.

 
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Posted: #66
its a trap??? ha! the trap is setting the line at -9.5 begging the public to take the gators. that is the trap my friend.

and to the guy up the thread aways who said that the difference will be florida on a fast track. correct me if im wrong but isnt bama playing on that same track? have you seen bama's def this year? they arent slow.
bama held clemson to 0 yards on the ground. i dont care how bad you say clemson is they still have cj spiller and james davis last i checked. oh, and they were on that fast track ealier this year and bama made them look like high schoolers. good luck!
 
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Posted: #67
I played for Bama in 05, I know these guys they have NOWHERE near the speed or ability as UF's, hell they even admit it. How stupid can people be? This is UF vs OSU all over again, UF will dominate both sides of the ball, dont get caught up in rankings. Rankings are the true trap
 
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Posted: #68
I agree with jwheels.  Look at outcomes versus common opponents.  This game is not close.  I WOULD BET ON FLORIDA IF THE LINE WAS 14!

Alabama is not a #1 team.  Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, and USC would all beat them convincingly.  Ohio State/Penn State-Alabama would be a good game.

Good luck all, but please ANALYZE THESE TEAMS WITHOUT LOOKING AT THEIR RANKING!!!


 
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Posted: #69
Nice write-up Chad. I'll admit, I'm a quasi-homer for The Tide, but when it comes to betting, my money takes a front seat to my heart.

I see getting Bama +10 as a solid play. Like the one guy said, it's Nick Saban vs.Urban Meyer - the prick as you put it! Saban is twice the coach Meyer is and imho, when you have two relatively evenly matched teams, I tend to bet on the man on the sidelines. After all, how many guys do you know can follow dog meat Shula and have a national contender in 2 years?

To me, based on what I've seen, Florida hasn't played a team as talented, huge & strong yet quick, and as well coached and disciplined as Alabama this year. Not that Alabama has had that big of an adversary yet either, but a team like Florida, to me,  will have a harder time adjusting if Alabama can get them out of their game. Antithetically, Bama is so sound in their fundamentals that, imho, they'll have Florida playing their game. Based on Alabama's defense, I believe they're going to be in Tebow's life the entire night - something he isn't accustomed to. And, after all, as the axiom goes, offense scores points, defense wins games. I believe that'll be highly pronounced this Saturday.

ROLL TIDE
 
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Posted: #70
Tim Tebow's whole entire life up to this point has been about leading the Florida Gators into the Georgia Dome to play for a SEC championship. He has been visualizing this moment since he was old enough to know what a football is. If you think there is a defense in the country who will be able to match the contagious intensity and focus that the florida players will be feeling as a result of the Tim Tebow factor you are nuts.
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by dyounger:


1. Florida should have lost to LSU even though they won by 30?

2. You are right UGA has an explosive offense and Bama played them well in the 1st half. Thats what makes the fact that Florida held the UGA offense without a TD until the 4th quarter in garbage time all that more impressive.

 

3. You cant compare how both teams played 1 team. How about the rest of the common opponents?  Look at the margin of victories after the Ole miss game for Florida.  Your looking at 2 different teams before and after the Ole Miss game.

4.Why did Bama feel the need to run the score up against Auburn? The reason Bama hasn't ran the score up against all the teams they played is because they aren't capable of putting up 50+ on any team.

 

What do you think Florida should have done vs the citadel? Im sure the starters played the 1st half and then 4th stringers ran the score up.  Do you think Florida should just punt the ball to The Citadel everytime they get the ball?  Florida's water boys are better than The Citadel, thats why they put 60 on them.  Florida's 5th stringers would be star players on the Citadel's team.

 

 

Thats it for me, I think your on the wrong side but GL


Bama 1st half scores this year against 3 decent opponents
35-7 ARK
31-0 GA
23-3 CLEM

Are you telling me they can't put 50+ up if they want...I disagree.
Look, this game isn't about who can score the MOST points.  Florida has an obvious edge in that department.  Alabama runs the ball 75% of their offensive plays.  Do you know how important that number is, by them running this much it will wear and tear ANY defense in the country down eventually.  This allows Alabama to hit big pass plays throughout the game.  Don't think Alabama won't be able to run at will on Florida either.  Florida has a decent DL when 100%, however they have two very important lineman that may not play and if they do they surely won't be 100%.  Alabama has the best OL in the nation, they will be physical and run the ball at will on Florida.  Alabama also has the advantage on defense, with AA's at DL LB and FS.  The game should be close and I believe 9.5 is way too much, and with the ML paying +300 I'll have to take some of that as well.  If ANYONE is blown out in this game it won't be Alabama it will be Florida because of a tired defense and an offense unable to move the ball on such a stifiling defense.  

By the way I am an Ole Miss Fan.


Good Luck either way you choose

 
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Posted: #72
FYI Meyer has an 82% winning record (81-17) and Saban,s is 69.6% (110-48) So don't tell me Saban is a much better coach than Meyer. Meyer has the same winnibg % at Bowling Green and Utah as he does at Florida. Against his big 3 rivals, Tenn, Ga, and FSU he is 11-1
 
Look at the QB match. Who would you take in a big game Tebow or Wilson?
 
Against 5 common opp Florida is 45-15 while Bama is 28-19. They did beat ole miss 24-20 while the gators lost 31-30. Since then the gators and tebow have been on a mission.In the last 3 games they are rushing for 350 yds a game and have only allowed about 80..Since the ole miss loss Tebow vowed to give everything he has and has done so.He is one of the best college QB of all time
 
The 9.5 point spread maybe a little high but straight up the Gators are a better team.Who goes to the BCS championship game won't be decided by a point spread. I agree there is good value in Bama with 91/2 points, but straight up it is a no brainer
 
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Posted: #73
Bama will lose, but cover
 
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Posted: #74
Early Christmas gift....take the points....buy your wives something nice with all your winnings.....Bama O and D lines much more physical....Bama offense not flashy...but very disciplined, and will control the game clock, and win the battle of field position....Bamas defense swarms to the ball...Defensive line shuts down the Tebow draw, great coverage from the defensive backs....stong and physical play from the linebackers....No doubt that Florida is an explosive team with alot of weapons and talent, but Bama in my opinion is a more disciplined and better coached team....Anyone who is talking out of their ass about Florida blowing Bama away is totally insane, and shouldnt be allowed to play on their parents computers...Bama plus the points....and enjoy your early Christmas gift
 
 
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Posted: #75
Man I wish there was one Bama back other than me that didnt have their location as Alabama or some affiliated name on this site
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