Alabama West Virginia

I have a pretty good idea that West Virginia is horrible, but I have not even begun to look at them yet.  Been super busy so I'm a bit behind.

Saban has always taken a very conservative approach with new QBs.  See the 2009 week 1 game versus Virginia Tech (Greg McElroy - 34-24 final score), and the week 2 game at Happy Valley versus Penn State (AJ McCarron - 27-11 final score).  And keep in mind that both McElroy and McCarron had spent several years in backup roles, while Jacob Coker hasn't even taken a snap in practice yet.

Maybe Coker will be great.  Maybe he won't.  The point is nobody knows.  It's all pure conjecture at this point.  I think the one thing we can hang our hat on at this point is that Saban knows the only way he can lose this game is by making a ton of mistakes.  Thus, he will take a very conservative, no-mistake approach in this game, and that doesn't lend to covering a monster spread.

As usual I will have the opportunity to view several practices, so I'll have a much better idea about Coker when I see him in action.  The one thing we do know for sure is that Coker will be surrounded by an abundance of offensive talent.

Early in the football season I look to back stable teams - teams with returning QBs and returning coaching staffs.  I do so because their week 1 performances are more predictable.  With Alabama's QB situation such as it is, I would not lay 24+ with them in week one against anyone at this point.  There has to better week 1 plays than this.

They lose the most important position on the offensive line . . . the left tackle.  Cyrus Kouandjio, who was once thought to be a lock to be a top 10 draft pick saw his stock tumble to the 2nd round after he struggled much of last season.  Alabama also losses their rock at RG Anthony Steen.  I'm a little surprised no NFL team took a late round gander on Steen.

Alabama had a ridiculous offensive line recruiting class this past season, but true freshman usually don't make a big impact their first season.  The crown jewel of the offensive line haul was 5* LT Cameron Robinson.  I'm certain that Robinson will work his way to being the starting left tackle at some point this season.  The question is will he be the starting left tackle against West Virginia in week 1.  And if he is, how many mistakes will he make?  Couple that with a new QB who probably won't be that comfortable running the offense, and it's not difficult to see where some miscommunication errors could occur.

Alabama's offense line received a lot of criticism last season, but numbers actually improved in rushing yards and sacks allowed, so the situation wasn't nearly as dire as some would have you believe.

I would anticipate the starting offensive line to look something like this:

LT - Cam Robinson (tFr.)  It's still too early to call who will spell Robinson at this point, but right now I would say look for sophomore TE Brandon Greene

LG - Arie Kouandjio (Sr.) - expect Kouandjio to be pushed by JUCO transfer Dominick Jackson

C - Ryan Kelly (Jr.)

RG - Leon Brown (Sr.)

RT-  Austin Shepherd (Sr.)

Talented  sophomore Grant Hill has the look of the #6 guy right now.

With the exception of the left tackle position, this looks to be a solid and experienced group.  I also expect to see more continuity from the line in Mario Cristobal's second season leading that group.  At some point this season I expect Cam Robinson to also be a solid SEC left tackle, the question is when?  Will he be ready for SEC competition in week 4 when Alabama faces one of the best defenses in the conference?  You can bet Will Muschamp will test the youngster in that game.

Alabama will do enough to get past West Virginia in week 1.  I'm just not real confident they'll do much more than that.

I will most likely be on the Mountaineers if I can get it around 24 or so.

I usually pick out some spots where I really like Alabama before the season starts, but because they are breaking in a new QB, I don't really see anything that sticks out.  If Alabama can get some good QB play, and the offense and defense live up their potentials, that may change as the season progresses.  The only thing that really sticks out to me is the UNDER in the Florida/Alabama game.

Best of luck to you this season.

I know youve been here almost as long as me and it does get old with the newbie trolls every year. However, there are A LOT of people that respect your opinion (esp on Bama games), and that includes me. Hell, if you post a play on the game I dont bother capping it, not even for a second. I'll will usually auto tail you, unless of course Ive already played the other way, then I just frown. For every clown that comes in your thread and gets inder your skin, there are 100 guys that dont post but absolutely LOVE to see what you think.

Really hoping to see you around this year brother.

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Surely you can find 15 or 20 minutes thurs-saturday morning to make a quick post and tell us what you think.

I know youve been here almost as long as me and it does get old with the newbie trolls every year. However, there are A LOT of people that respect your opinion (esp on Bama games), and that includes me. Hell, if you post a play on the game I dont bother capping it, not even for a second. I'll will usually auto tail you, unless of course Ive already played the other way, then I just frown. For every clown that comes in your thread and gets inder your skin, there are 100 guys that dont post but absolutely LOVE to see what you think.

Really hoping to see you around this year brother.

I appreciate the kind words Train!!!

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Surely you can find 15 or 20 minutes thurs-saturday morning to make a quick post and tell us what you think.

I know youve been here almost as long as me and it does get old with the newbie trolls every year. However, there are A LOT of people that respect your opinion (esp on Bama games), and that includes me. Hell, if you post a play on the game I dont bother capping it, not even for a second. I'll will usually auto tail you, unless of course Ive already played the other way, then I just frown. For every clown that comes in your thread and gets inder your skin, there are 100 guys that dont post but absolutely LOVE to see what you think.

Really hoping to see you around this year brother.

With Train on Wise on this...stay with us Jimmy and show us the way!

Jimmy, but in all do respect, doesn't some of the value evaluation come with the quality of the opponent.   WVU is ranked by pundits as a bottom 3 team in the Big XII (which has only 10 teams) ahead of only iowa st and lowly Kansas.   The game is at a neutral location and not in Morgantown.   this neutral location will probably be 70%  Bama and thus a quasi home game for the Tide.   Bama has 5 star rated players at almost every position, whether they have experience or not.   Holgerson is hot seat yes, but sparing the early season competitive game at OU last season, they were pathetic on the road.  (2-4 ATS in 2013).   Sure, WVU has been preparing for Bama all Spring and will during fall camp.  But, so has Bama, and Bama has superior coaching.   Trickett is the returning starting for the neers, but only completed 52% of his passes for 1700 yards (7 TD and 7 INTS).   Finally, WVU was 4-8 last season with wins over William and Mary, lowly Ga St, weakened by injuries TCU, and an Ok St that obviously had a let down at Morgantown (I watched the game, and yes they were out hustled because they took WV lightly.)      Bama is coming off an unprecedented two losses, so you know they will be motivated,     Yes, Coker, is inexperienced, but he was higher regarded coming out of HS than Trickett.  The one thing that concerns me a bit is Kiffens influence, but I want to believe that by getting canned midseason from USC, he will be very motivated to perform at a high level (and also be controlled by their devil of a HC).  WVU will trot out Shell the Tr from Pitt who was very highly rated coming out of HS (#2).   But, he has not played since 2012, and out of the gate, against a hungry Bama team, I bet he will be limited.   WVU''s only chance to upset is do what OU did in the bowl game.   I bet Saban and his players have been trying to fix that problem since early spring and will be ready.    WVU is no OU when it comes to talent, and that includes QB.

I have heard you and other (who have supported Bama in the past) are down on them to start the season.    I don't know about you, but I would equate WVU's talent and motivation to be more like Bama opponents Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee last season in consecutive weeks.   And I believe you know the outcome and which teach covered ATS in those matchups...

I don't want to be a delusional square in this Bama v WV matchup.    I don't want to assume that Bama will show up and score its normal 45 points against a patsy from major conference on a neutral field.   I am trying to be objective and evaluate all parameters of all the games that I will select.     It will be very difficult to go against you, Wise, BA, Train, Thorpe and other solid cappers on this side.   But, from a motivation, talent differential, coaching, and other factors, I see a significantly greater MOV than 13.5 points for Bama.    I also see vanilla and controlled and methodical Bama O, and a nasty, hungry and talented shutdown D.    I think the Bama players and coaches are p^ssed that the media pundits and others are saying that Bama will have a down year by their standards.    Bama just reloads, and I think over the offseason they have addressed the weaknesses in which they were exposed against OU, and Auburn.

Alabama 45

West Virginia 13

I will appreciate your perspectives...