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Another "Bizarro Capping World" Line - Wyoming -6 vs. Utah State

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Posted: #1

Makes zero sense to me. I underestimated this WY team last week and paid the price.

I'll say this from the get-go. I have very little insight on Utah State. I do not watch them.

So we have Wyoming with their first win over Boise ever (0-11 previously). HUGE for that program. Now...Utah State...Utah State is going to derail that?

Their biggest win in over a decade and half BY FAR.

I went back in the ENTIRE covers database and they didn't have a single win over a ranked team since 2002. It didn't go back any farther. It may have been in forever for all I know.

On top of this, Utah State is mired in an unremarkable/bad season at 3-5 with wins over lowly Arkansas State, Fresno State, and Weber State.

And here's the added layer: Utah State CRUSHED WY 58-27 last year. Their biggest and most impressive win of the year and WY's worst.

I know squares are aware of the letdown spots but the confidence Wyoming is playing with after their biggest win in 14+ years is at an all-time high.

But +6 @ Wyoming?

You have the revenge angle, playing a bad team angle, coming in with confidence angle, one of your best seasons in forever (a bowl in 2011 where Temple destroyed them) with bowl eligibility on the line, playing at home...

And this is all countered by....the letdown spot (which Penn State just shi* on against Purdue).

Not even a TD. And get this: The line moved from +7 to +6 this afternoon. Whay? Money is pouring in on Utah State to get this off a key number like that?

Someone needs to explain this to me. Is it unknown injuries? Who LOVES Utah State here??? Wyoming can score...in bunches. They MOVE the ball up and down the field, sometimes at will. If you can score, you can cover. Their sieve of a D isn't a massive concern when it's not Boise and they can still run it up.

This all doesn't add up. I ask the Utah State backers to come to the pulpit here with their gobsmacking 2 FG's and tell me how they are going to cover or win the game at Wyoming after all I just noted.

I'm not making a pick here. I just want insight if I do.

 
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Posted: #2
the line opened at 3 so I wouldn't say that money is pouring in on Utah St, it opened at 3, moved to 6, then was a 7 last night, back to 6 now

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Posted: #3
Bad matchup for Utah State.  I haven't been impressed in any game I've watched from Utah State this year.  Wyoming is built similarly to San Diego who just ran all over Utah St.  Brian Hill is a step below Pumphrey but he's a well established collegiate back and Wyoming has a much better passing attack than SDSU.  Utah St typically plays best ball at home as they're 1-8 last 2 years on the road with their one win coming against lowly Fresno St.  I'm assuming linesmakers feel like a letdown is in store here?
 
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Posted: #4
I don't post much, but I like when you post. As you truly bring information that can be used for betting. I think you are right on the money on this game. I know "sharps" will say play the let down spot but not every time is it a let down. I didn't follow your Purdue bet last week because although Penn State was due for the let down I didn't think Purdue had the capability to make them pay and I think in this game its the same line of thinking. Utah State couldn't get up to play San Diego State not sure how invested they will be this week to do it on the road. Might be a square play but I would rather lose on Wyoming in this spot catching a low line. Thanks for putting up the information or might not have noticed.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

the line opened at 3 so I wouldn't say that money is pouring in on Utah St, it opened at 3, moved to 6, then was a 7 last night, back to 6 now


Wow. Opened at three. That seems near impossible?!?!
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by Win4Ever:

Bad matchup for Utah State.  I haven't been impressed in any game I've watched from Utah State this year.  Wyoming is built similarly to San Diego who just ran all over Utah St.  Brian Hill is a step below Pumphrey but he's a well established collegiate back and Wyoming has a much better passing attack than SDSU.  Utah St typically plays best ball at home as they're 1-8 last 2 years on the road with their one win coming against lowly Fresno St.  I'm assuming linesmakers feel like a letdown is in store here?

If that's the only angle, it's a poor one. Letdown spot:

Penn State over OSU - crushed Purdue 62-24 following week after 14 pt favs
SMU beat HOU - won @ Tulane by 4 as 3 pt dogs.

Those are just off the top of my head from last week alone. The 'letdown spot' is highly overrated IMO, and when you have a team as unremarkable as Utah state it is even more skeptical.

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by doitlikeaboss:

I don't post much, but I like when you post. As you truly bring information that can be used for betting. I think you are right on the money on this game. I know "sharps" will say play the let down spot but not every time is it a let down. I didn't follow your Purdue bet last week because although Penn State was due for the let down I didn't think Purdue had the capability to make them pay and I think in this game its the same line of thinking. Utah State couldn't get up to play San Diego State not sure how invested they will be this week to do it on the road. Might be a square play but I would rather lose on Wyoming in this spot catching a low line. Thanks for putting up the information or might not have noticed.

This is what I'm saying too! Why Utah State? It could be so many other teams who could put up a far better fight! Why do we give Utah State the credit to take out Wyoming AT HOME in that NUTHOUSE as we saw last week, just because they are coming off a win. Utah State is nothing this year! Wyoming is playing GREAT football!
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


If that's the only angle, it's a poor one. Letdown spot:

Penn State over OSU - crushed Purdue 62-24 following week after 14 pt favs
SMU beat HOU - won @ Tulane by 4 as 3 pt dogs.

Those are just off the top of my head from last week alone. The 'letdown spot' is highly overrated IMO, and when you have a team as unremarkable as Utah state it is even more skeptical.


Another popular letdown was people pounding Iowa a few weeks ago over Wisconsin after Wisconsin lost to Ohio St the week before, and Michigan week prior.  Wisconsin covered, and creamed Iowa.  Scoreboard doesn't truly reflect the exact outcome.  The letdown angle may be a tad overhyped sometimes.  You think these coaches beat BOISE and will take the week off?
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

the line opened at 3 so I wouldn't say that money is pouring in on Utah St, it opened at 3, moved to 6, then was a 7 last night, back to 6 now


If the line opened at 3 that would mean if this game was in itah Stae it would be -3 Utah State. After Wyoming just knocked off an undefeated respected ranked team who puts up big o offensive numbers (and not too shabby D numbers). 

Who knows something I don't. How can you possibly open this up at -3??? Are we suckers yet again???
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Win4Ever:


Another popular letdown was people pounding Iowa a few weeks ago over Wisconsin after Wisconsin lost to Ohio St the week before, and Michigan week prior.  Wisconsin covered, and creamed Iowa.  Scoreboard doesn't truly reflect the exact outcome.  The letdown angle may be a tad overhyped sometimes.  You think these coaches beat BOISE and will take the week off?

Very true. Iowa scored a paltry 9 and failed to cover the 3 vs Wisky 17-9 in a massive "letdown spot" after an intensely physical game vs. OSU the week before.
 
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Posted: #11
Maybe the public really is infatuated with the letdown angle far more than I give them credit for because the Wisky -3 ove Iowa line was bizarre to me too.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


If the line opened at 3 that would mean if this game was in itah Stae it would be -3 Utah State. After Wyoming just knocked off an undefeated respected ranked team who puts up big o offensive numbers (and not too shabby D numbers). 

Who knows something I don't. How can you possibly open this up at -3??? Are we suckers yet again???
I don't look at anything like being a sucker, the suckers are the ones who don't do the necessary homework and only rely on "fading"

New England opened at less than a TD in a revenge game against Buffalo and everyone bet the Pats, they covered for the 4th straight game since Brady has come back

Alabama covers almost every single week in conference play as huge favorites

oddsmakers get murdered by those two heavy fan favorites and still trot out lines every week that can't possibly draw 50/50 action

the suckers are the ones betting against those two to be on the side of the books, the conspiracy theorists that like to side with "vegas"

 you see all forms of losing at covers, just stay awhile 
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Posted: #13
as far as this game goes, I do factor in letdown angles for many games but I don't let it deter me if the line is where I need it

I don't know how these two matchup because I haven't looked into it just yet but I do know Utah St isn't the same team away from home

I had Wyoming circled last night as a first glance lean but got tied up doing something else and haven't gotten back to it, I guess I'll look into the game now and see what I can find

this could be a good play Scal 


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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by JerseySam:

Still up talking to yourself in yet another thread 

Have you have you had any sleep since the Boise debacle ?  I think i was generous in my 50% prediction for your future capping no good man your a sick puppy  

you joined this month and have 18 posts and your trolling Scal?  what are the odds you have been here before under a different username?  I'd say 9/10

I'll let the Covers Team do a little IP address check 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by JerseySam:


Genuine question; what was your reason for signing up?

Do people like you post because you genuinely find it funny, as in real laughter, when people call you out?

I find it a fascinating way to spend your time. Please tell!
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Maybe the public really is infatuated with the letdown angle far more than I give them credit for because the Wisky -3 ove Iowa line was bizarre to me too.

Scal I would imagine that 5% of punters in this spot make money

15% use factors such as letdown spots to guide their wagers

The other 80%.....

So when cappers like you and Wahoo see an opportunity like this, more often than not it is one. Do your research but then don't second guess yourself....
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

I don't look at anything like being a sucker, the suckers are the ones who don't do the necessary homework and only rely on "fading"

New England opened at less than a TD in a revenge game against Buffalo and everyone bet the Pats, they covered for the 4th straight game since Brady has come back

Alabama covers almost every single week in conference play as huge favorites

oddsmakers get murdered by those two heavy fan favorites and still trot out lines every week that can't possibly draw 50/50 action

the suckers are the ones betting against those two to be on the side of the books, the conspiracy theorists that like to side with "vegas"

 you see all forms of losing at covers, just stay awhile 


Vegas likes to create fair lines and I'm sure there are times where they are only fair cause of sharps and their internal sharps they trust. But like you said too many people pretending to be sharps only helping the public cash on games that I'm sure Vegas would like to set higher. If not for the so-called sharps I don't think Vegas would have mind -9 or -10 on patriots to avoid teaser action. People forget too that these so called professional sharps probably only hit at 53-55 percent lifetime. It's hard to go 60 percent all the time. Scal has an impressive percentage but he is being super selective when he counts it towards his record and that is why he is able to maintain that percentage and is always a wise read.
 
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Posted: #18
All of the value on this Wyoming team is credited to the hiring of the hiring of the former N. Dakota St coach
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by JerseySam:


Yea I have an IP # what's that going to prove ? i joined this month 
So does it make someone more special if they joined 5 years ago don't understand your point ? 

 Don't  you think people join this site on a daily basis just like i did ?
I do think people joined on a daily basis

but I know those people don't specifically target a veteran member and troll him in within their first few posts, that doesn't happen unless they have been here before under a different username

if you have been a member before then your IP address will show that, they can match you up to a "banned" member

maybe you are clean and are just a troll, I guess we will find out soon enough 

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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by doitlikeaboss:



Vegas likes to create fair lines and I'm sure there are times where they are only fair cause of sharps and their internal sharps they trust. But like you said too many people pretending to be sharps only helping the public cash on games that I'm sure Vegas would like to set higher. If not for the so-called sharps I don't think Vegas would have mind -9 or -10 on patriots to avoid teaser action. People forget too that these so called professional sharps probably only hit at 53-55 percent lifetime. It's hard to go 60 percent all the time. Scal has an impressive percentage but he is being super selective when he counts it towards his record and that is why he is able to maintain that percentage and is always a wise read.
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Posted: #21
https://www.covers.com/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=52705&sport=NCF


Wow Wahoo. You are right.

Betonline opened this game up at Wyoming -3. Seems impossible. -3 Wyoming means Utah State is -3 in its stadium.

There is zero justification for that. I don't see a single thing, not history or rivalry or anything else that would prompt someone to LAY 3 to WY against Utah State off a win against Boise. A letdown spot is not worth THAT much. There isn't a square in this universe who'd LAY 3 to WY there if the stadiums switched (and effectively that is what the line means).

The line appears to have shot up to 6 on that site in 20 minutes to an hour from -3 to -6.

I'd love to talk to linesetter at Betonline and tell me what his thinking was with that line. Or to tell me who the hell is leaving briefcases of money under his hotel bed???

 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by doitlikeaboss:



Vegas likes to create fair lines and I'm sure there are times where they are only fair cause of sharps and their internal sharps they trust. But like you said too many people pretending to be sharps only helping the public cash on games that I'm sure Vegas would like to set higher. If not for the so-called sharps I don't think Vegas would have mind -9 or -10 on patriots to avoid teaser action. People forget too that these so called professional sharps probably only hit at 53-55 percent lifetime. It's hard to go 60 percent all the time. Scal has an impressive percentage but he is being super selective when he counts it towards his record and that is why he is able to maintain that percentage and is always a wise read.

The -6 line with the PAts was just baffling. But I heard from several sources the 'sharps' were swallowing it up with big bets.
 
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Posted: #23
AND WORSE, according to this line history, Betonline opened this game at Wyoming -3 WITH reduced juice at -105!

 As though there were droves of Wyoming squares who simply wouldn't pay the -110 to lay a FG (a push or win number that is very rarely backdoored).

Bizzaro World. Someone at Betonline needs to have their head examined.
 
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Posted: #24
I was watching wyoming last game actually I was  switching between that and cubs Indians game but from what I seen Wyoming looked pretty good their QB made a lot of plays especially on 3rd down in 4th quarter their defence was flying all over and they have a nice crowd also. it was good atmosphere at the stadium . I cant really say anything about Utah state but based on their record this seems too good to be true everybody in their mother gonna be on Wyoming I know I would after watching them play boise last game but little voice in back of my head is telling me don't do it . not sure what to think ill be checking to see what you decide
 
 
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Posted: #25
As a guy who has no knowledge of the College football game due to virtually no coverage on t.v. over here, Live games or pre game chat etc, I find your threads about lines being short or too high very informative Scal, Thank you and hopefully may you continue making these type of threads. 
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