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Another "Bizarro Capping World" Line - Wyoming -6 vs. Utah State

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Posted: #26
Granted, it's very early in the week. But, my source is showing 77% of spread bets are on Wyoming. It's too early to get a number on ML wagers.




 
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Posted: #27
I know its cliché but last week was Wyoming's super bowl. They had that game circled from spring. To get that same type of intensity 2 weeks in a row is very hard. Wyoming is a power running team that eat up time. All there games are tight as their defense is not very good. Although they are well coached he will have his work cut out this week in practice. Utah St is not good this year but if this line gets to 7 be very careful. Wyoming should win but it should be closer than most of you think.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by jasperslegs:

Lets make something clear.....Wyoming is NOT in a let down spot. They are on a winning streak and some of their wins were as bigger dogs than against Boise St. Sure Boise St has a big name to it but they were an overrated unbeaten team.  Wyoming is the hot team playing with full confidence and everything is going good for them. But i am not going to play this game because this game seems like one of those bait games.
Being Wyoming who have been to maybe 3 bowls in the last 15 years,  beating a ranked undefeated perennial MW powerhouse in Boise St, yes is just part a win streak. Please, this was Wyoming's biggest win in their recent programs history. These r college kids running around all week celebrating. Boise St is the Alabama in that area of the country. Wyoming are a good team that's it, they
haven't dominated in any game. They don't have the talent or depth to be off there game mentally one iota.

As I stated Wyoming should win and may even cover but please don't insult everyone by saying beating Bosie is just part of a win streak.
 
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Posted: #29
Scal vegas knows you took Purdue on the letdown spot and got burned. They also know your poy was Boise st Wyoming. I advise you to stay away from this game. I was on Wyoming HUGE last week and yes they're playing well but Boise is weak. You seem to be betting with your heart here thinking Wyoming is the sh it or something. 

Gl whatever you decide to do.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Damaged99:

Scal vegas knows you took Purdue on the letdown spot and got burned. They also know your poy was Boise st Wyoming. I advise you to stay away from this game. I was on Wyoming HUGE last week and yes they're playing well but Boise is weak. You seem to be betting with your heart here thinking Wyoming is the sh it or something. 

Gl whatever you decide to do.

The premise of scals thinking on that purdue game was spot on. and had i just blindly took the 14 then yes i was wrong. but any good handicapper knows that in such a letdown spot the first thing one wants to look at is the 1st quarter or the first half or even both. if a dog is going to bite its gonna be early. looking at that purdue team it was obvious that they didnt have the horses to go 4 quarters with wayne high school let alone penn state. i am pretty confident that Scal had money sprinkled on a few different areas of that game. its very possible to be on the wrong outcome of a game and still win money on it if you properly use all of your derivatives!


 
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Posted: #31
TraderJoe I was commenting on his posted play not plays that happened in your fantasy land. I love situational betting as well when it works with a live dog not a terrible team that has zero chance. 
 
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Posted: #32
I see nothing unusual about the line at all. I will be on Wyoming. 

A for -3 at Betonline? That too is not unusual. Go there on Sunday mornings and you can get some good lines before they move like this one did. 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Damaged99:

TraderJoe I was commenting on his posted play not plays that happened in your fantasy land. I love situational betting as well when it works with a live dog not a terrible team that has zero chance. 

way to be a keyboard warrior!!  

no fantasy buddy. those were just wagers i made based on the letdown spot as im sure Scal did as well

 
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Posted: #34
I'm not sure why either, my power ratings had this game as Wyoming -8. 

The only thing I can think of is letdown spot, and people are viewing some of Utah State's wins and losses as better than they appeared at the time. 

Examples:

Beat Ark State by 14 at home with Ark State's new QB Hansen, Ark State has beaten Georgia Southern by 1, South Alabama by 10, and ULM by 41 since. 

Lost to Boise @ Boise 21-10 but total yards in that game-Boise only outgained Ute State by 26 yards.

but then you have things like Colorado State beating Utah State by 7 and losing by 21 points to Wyoming the week prior. 

JMO, but some sharps are reading too much into this one. Wyoming has to be the only play here. 


 
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Posted: #35
has to be the letdown spot,  in tennis when an unknown/lower ranked player beats a top seed always fade that player winning player next round for two reasons 
1. The psychological impact is huge with a feeling like they have already won the entire tournament in their own head,  i.e.  there is a satisfaction that they didn't expect to feel so whether or not they win again in that tournament the player feels complete.  
2.  New focus and attention, the next opponent is on high alert.

Look anyone who has been around college football programs knows whats going on,  the wyoming players are all being treated to dinners, sex, parties all week. professors are mentioning them in class, maybe the coach gave them a free afternoon.   For a team that is used to being stomped at home (and oh we remember a few stompings on that snowy Wyoming field)  lets hope they stay humble.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


 The 'letdown spot' is highly overrated IMO.



It's not overrated.  It's just hard to identify.   It's not as simple as saying a team pulled an upset so there'll be a letdown.  Sometimes upsets boost confidence and produce positive momentum.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:

As a guy who has no knowledge of the College football game due to virtually no coverage on t.v. over here, Live games or pre game chat etc, I find your threads about lines being short or too high very informative Scal, Thank you and hopefully may you continue making these type of threads. 
 will do.

Risk, always a pleasure.
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by mws:



It's not overrated.  It's just hard to identify.   It's not as simple as saying a team pulled an upset so there'll be a letdown.  Sometimes upsets boost confidence and produce positive momentum.
 I think with Bohl as the head coach he will use it well. He will keep these kids grounded
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #39
Look at last week and the number on the Utah State/SDSU game.  Isn't that even harder to justify than this one?  We have a case of bad power ratings in the MWC.  Now, it's possible that this is a letdown spot and that that has been factored into the number (I haven't looked at this game closely), but we *know* that the oddsmakers think USU is better than it is, and it might be as simple as that.

Good luck, everyone. 
 
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Posted: #40
I've watched a few of the games by these two teams and I'd say Wyoming is way more formidable than Utah St. and definitely should be more than 10+ point favorites
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:

Granted, it's very early in the week. But, my source is showing 77% of spread bets are on Wyoming. It's too early to get a number on ML wagers.





Means nothing to me if I cap the game in full. Plus it's expected given the public win over undefeated Boise.

 
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Posted: #42

Quote Originally Posted by jakecece:

I know its cliché but last week was Wyoming's super bowl. They had that game circled from spring. To get that same type of intensity 2 weeks in a row is very hard. Wyoming is a power running team that eat up time. All there games are tight as their defense is not very good. Although they are well coached he will have his work cut out this week in practice. Utah St is not good this year but if this line gets to 7 be very careful. Wyoming should win but it should be closer than most of you think.

Not saying it can't be close. But the line is not even at a TD and opened at -3 reduced juice on one site which is outrageous.

 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by jakecece:

Being Wyoming who have been to maybe 3 bowls in the last 15 years,  beating a ranked undefeated perennial MW powerhouse in Boise St, yes is just part a win streak. Please, this was Wyoming's biggest win in their recent programs history. These r college kids running around all week celebrating. Boise St is the Alabama in that area of the country. Wyoming are a good team that's it, they
haven't dominated in any game. They don't have the talent or depth to be off there game mentally one iota.

As I stated Wyoming should win and may even cover but please don't insult everyone by saying beating Bosie is just part of a win streak.

38-17 over Colorado State isn't dominating?

45-22 over UC Davis isn't dominating?

Beating Air Force by 9 isn't impressive?

Controlling the entire second half in the Boise game isn't impressive?

I'm impressive and yes they have dominated.

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Damaged99:

Scal vegas knows you took Purdue on the letdown spot and got burned. They also know your poy was Boise st Wyoming. I advise you to stay away from this game. I was on Wyoming HUGE last week and yes they're playing well but Boise is weak. You seem to be betting with your heart here thinking Wyoming is the sh it or something. 

Gl whatever you decide to do.

Last week was not a POY. I Never said such a thing.

 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by traderjoe13:


The premise of scals thinking on that purdue game was spot on. and had i just blindly took the 14 then yes i was wrong. but any good handicapper knows that in such a letdown spot the first thing one wants to look at is the 1st quarter or the first half or even both. if a dog is going to bite its gonna be early. looking at that purdue team it was obvious that they didnt have the horses to go 4 quarters with wayne high school let alone penn state. i am pretty confident that Scal had money sprinkled on a few different areas of that game. its very possible to be on the wrong outcome of a game and still win money on it if you properly use all of your derivatives!


Trader, we are 3-1 this year with Purdue (75%). I was pushing it to be perfect. We can still get to 80% likely with a fade. But Purdue suckered me it real good. I wish I never watched that Nebraska game because purdue played so far above their heads even in a loss I couldn't resist. This is a team that doesn't know how to tackle. They were the worst in the nation on holding teams on 3rd down. Vs. Nebraska? Huskers were 0-5 on 3rd down conversions in the first half alone. That was a miracle. Well the miracle continued for a half and then...they gave up 45 fu**** points. I won't be suckered again.

 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

38-17 over Colorado State isn't dominating?

45-22 over UC Davis isn't dominating?

Beating Air Force by 9 isn't impressive?

Controlling the entire second half in the Boise game isn't impressive?

I'm impressive and yes they have dominated.



Wow a game they were up a TD going into the 4th qtr (Colorado ST) is dominating?? You're really gonna throw UC Davis game as an example of dominating. Utah St beat Weber St by 40  why not give them the BCS Trophy and a 9 point win at home over Air Force who threw 3 picks and still almost came back and won.

I respect everyones opinion on games as long as you come correct with substantial info. But please don't throw out garbage info to desperatley try bolster your pick. Don't just read off the results of a team, we all can do that on our own.  


 
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Posted: #47
Believe it or not, Sagarin has these teams rated dead even at 64.07 in his power ratings...maybe that's why betonline opened it -3 where home field was the only factor.

But if you look at his "recent" ratings, Utah state 62.83, Wyoming 66.46

I came up with a line of Wyoming -5.72 without any emotional factors or angles. 

I also have the total hitting slightly above 60. Looks like bettors are all over Wyoming and the Under.

Utah St runs a 3-4, maybe it gives Wyoming's back up Right Tackle some issues? He played against Boise and seemed to play well. 

BOL ScaL
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by jakecece:

Wow a game they were up a TD going into the 4th qtr (Colorado ST) is dominating?? You're really gonna throw UC Davis game as an example of dominating. Utah St beat Weber St by 40  why not give them the BCS Trophy and a 9 point win at home over Air Force who threw 3 picks and still almost came back and won.

I respect everyones opinion on games as long as you come correct with substantial info. But please don't throw out garbage info to desperatley try bolster your pick. Don't just read off the results of a team, we all can do that on our own.  



Excuse me. Who the hell is making a pick? Do you even read the content of a thread?

And yes I'll throw out UC Davis and Colorado State more convincingly because you implied they dominated NO ONE. These teams in these low level conferences only play mostly shi**y teams kid. Get it? No? Then I can't help ya. You said it. I didn't. Wyoming has dominated teams this year. End of story. And the second half of the Boise game was the most impressive of all. Why not just toss that by the wayside too.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Believe it or not, Sagarin has these teams rated dead even at 64.07 in his power ratings...maybe that's why betonline opened it -3 where home field was the only factor.

But if you look at his "recent" ratings, Utah state 62.83, Wyoming 66.46

I came up with a line of Wyoming -5.72 without any emotional factors or angles. 

I also have the total hitting slightly above 60. Looks like bettors are all over Wyoming and the Under.

Utah St runs a 3-4, maybe it gives Wyoming's back up Right Tackle some issues? He played against Boise and seemed to play well. 

BOL ScaL

Capping without emotional factors is a losing venture

Utah State has done nothing comparable to what Wy has done this year.


 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

I see nothing unusual about the line at all. I will be on Wyoming. 

A for -3 at Betonline? That too is not unusual. Go there on Sunday mornings and you can get some good lines before they move like this one did. 

That's outrageous. -3 WY means WY is a 3 pt DOG to 3-5 Utah State in Utah. That is insane AND unusual. Don't just write that shi77y line off like it happens every day of the week.
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