Bags Thursday LARGE **North Carolina vs Minnesota**

Minnesota -1 (LARGE)

Love this number dropping. QB for Minnesota is a HUGE upgrade for this team and this offense should be able to put a good amount of points…add running back stud Taylor who ran 800 yards 5 TDs in just 6 games LY. 

*I think Minni’s Offense should put up a good amount on points in this game…which forces Carolina to throw…QB Johnson for Heels is a huge downgrade from previous years…Gophers defense is alway plays better than average when it come to Fleck on the sidelines.

Line should be closer to Gophers -3.5 imo 

Fill em

**QB Brosmer….Ranked #1 in FCS in both passing yards per game (314.9) and total offense (325.0 yards/game)... #2 in the nation in passing yards (3,464), passing touchdowns (29) and points responsible for per game (18.9)... #4 nationally in both completions per game (26.64) and points responsible for (208)... QB efficiency rating of 145.9...

**RB Taylor… Big Ten Freshman of the Week three straight times last season and led the conference in rushing before suffering a soft tissue injury. He led the Gophers in rushing despite only playing in six games!!!

Going to have something to say on this game in my thread within in a few days. The line and matchup caught my eye after reading about spring camps and transfer portals

Not sure which side I am on but Fleck does not lack for preparation and motivation with his troops and I do recall Mack starts strong out the gate but still have to dig 

Just to play Devil's advocate, yes NC lost Drake Maye, he's a huge loss but Max Johnson is no bum, he's a 5th year senior formerly from the SEC, LSU and Texas A&M and has thrown 47 TD passes against only 12 pix, almost 6k yards, 60% completion. Max is the son of former NFL QB and Super Bowl winner Brad Johnson when he was with the Bucs.They also return one the best RBs in the country, Omarion Hampton who rushed for over 1500 yards and 15 TDs, he's a beast. The Carolina offense will be fine, same ol same ol in Chapel Hill, which is always the question there, the defense, or lack thereof. This is an interesting early season matchup and we should learn alot about these two squads. GL this season!

Noooooooope. UNC is the better team here, take the pts 

@FamousRy

 Fading you and your eye, RY.

@mrusso

  Appreciate the angle…not the best looking at everything…but I did check out some Max Johnson tape with both LSU & A&M…LSU is the home to WR talent…he should have played much better imo. Saw him with A&M… doesn’t have a good bounce & lacks feet work in then pocket, doesn’t play well under pressure… Thursday night game  @ Huntington Bank Stadium…50% chance of rain… not looking great for his 1st game on blue.

over 50.5 seems quite interesting, im seeing 50% of showers but low wind. Weather is fine.

Believe I read where Mn has a ton of talent with returning starters and portal. Loaded. 

First, I'm a huge Tar Heel fan, but a little skeptical of UNC's chances.  First, UNC has not won a road opener against a power 5 team since 1992.  Second, the UNC defense has been in the bottom 50 in the country in the past 10 years (maybe longer).  The defense has given up huge chunk plays since Mack Brown came back to Chapel Hill.  They have won games with offense.  UNC does have some playmakers on offense including Omar Hampton, one of the best returning backs in the nation.  UNC will play two quarterbacks.  Johnson and then Harrell, who is a much better athlete.  I like Harrell to be the more unpredictable and may be the key to a win.  Minnesota's best RB, Darius Taylor, may be out.  He hurt his hamstring last Tuesday and has not practiced since.  Bottom line, Minnesota, has the edge.  Playing at home, may have the better QB, the Golden Gophers should prevail.  Probably not a game I will bet, but wanted to share what I know.  Best of luck to all.     

@chaka1

 That's some good info!  Thanks for sharing.

@skillahmang

 Instead of being rude and saying you are fading his play just say nothing and go on your way. If a member wants to post a play then respect them for doing so and try to not be offensive in replying like this.

@chaka1

 Thanks for info.

To all the guys with quality info on this game, it’s noticed and most of us appreciate it.  Thank you! 

I am looking at the game myself.  I want to see if this line can get to +3. I doubt it.  

2 keys for me is home and a team getting points can score.  I respect both coaches but Neither is elite.  

Any prediction on who can out rush the other?  That’s my biggest ????

Well said Spottie and I concur about some great tidbits mentioned in here..

Go look at Minny over the last few years and their outcome with Fleck and who they played 1st game...

Go look at UNC the last 3 years with Mack and UNC and how they performed.

I am posting my side in my thread. I don't care if RB Taylor doesn't play this Saturday for the Gophers, I now have a side I am confident in after doing some digging 

@Last2thirst

 Appreciate you my friend

Likewise....lets dig and put our thinking caps on to make some cash this season 

Minnesota are now +105

I hope this is general line movement of can't be true Tarheel money and not an indication of the health of Taylor and Minny WR 

Don't be intimidated by line moves early in the week....LATE moves are different I find 

I've done this for years and with horses too for decades

Focus on the nuances of team vs team, situation vs situation in capping

@LB_Dirtbags

 Saban and Herbstreit both picked North Carolina to win on college game day this past Saturday 

UNC defense is not so good I believe..

I.like Minny myself

BAG$$$$

@Last2thirst

 What r your thoughts on reverse line movement?  Any stastical significance or just noise? Thx.

I used to chase it in various sports when I was really beginning to dive into sports betting on top of my horse betting...and then realized that the result actually turns out to be no better than about 55% so I just blindly abandoned doing so the 2 yrs I tried it

One thing I do remember. Vegas generally starts to toy with movement in midseason and people get burned

What do you think about line movement?