Bama @ Tennessee

I'm sure everyone on this board knows this, but I'll mention it for those who don't, or those who have forgotten:  Alabama/Tennessee is a HUGE rivalry game.  It is one the biggest rivalries in all of college football.  Much has been written about the legend of the 3rd week in October, including many books.

Furthermore, if you need a refresher on how last year's game in Tuscaloosa ended clicky here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjvhJKOxj3M

I would also add that Derek Dooley has spent much of his coaching career as a Saban protege, so if there is anyone who knows what makes Saban tick, it's Dooley.

Like last season, Bama enters this game battered and bruised.  This will be their 8th consecutive game without a bye, and it is the back-end of 5 consecutive weeks of greuling SEC games.

Defensively, Donte Hightower is still receiving treatment for his surgically repaired knee, Courtney Upshaw and Marcell Dareus continue to be hobbled by ankle problems, and DBs DeQuan Menzie and DeMarcus Millner are coping with minor injuries.

On the offensive side of the ball Julio Jones continues to endure the pain of a broken and surgically repaired hand, RT and road grader DJ Fluker is still out with a severely pull groin muscle.  Additionally, RB Trent Richarson has been wearing a protective boot all week, and QB Greg McElroy is dealing with a badly bruised throwing hand after Jerrell Powe stepped on it in the Ole Miss game.

Meanwhile, in Knoxville, Dooley and his Volunteers having been healing, resting, and quietly preparing to host their biggest rival this Saturday.

Do these numbers ring a bell?  24, 24, 24, 19 & 23.  Give up?  This is the number of points Alabama's offense has scored against the 5 legitimate opponents they have face this season.  And the 23 in the Ole Miss game would have been 19 had Ole Miss not been flagged for a roughing the kicker penalty on a successfuly FG (terrible call BTW), which Bama eventually converted into a TD.

If you have been following my Bama write-ups this season, you know that the biggest problem they have offensively is a QB that no defense respects - and for very good reason.  Ole Miss proved again last week that defenses can take away the run by stacking 9-men in the box, can expose the middle of the field by consistently run-blitzing their safeties, and feel very confident that Greg McElroy cannot exploit the deep middle part of the field.  As long as GMac cannot stretch defenses and keep them honest, Bama will struggle to run the ball and score points.  I see nothing different in this game.

We all know that Tennessee is not overly talented; that they are young, and that they have anorexically thin depth.  But Vegas is offering us approximately 17 points with a rested, well-prepared and highly motivated Tennessee team playing at home against their arch-rival who is beat-up and battered, and struggles to score 20 offensive points.  Unless Tennessee gets shutout, and/or completely self-destructs with mistakes, I don't see Bama covering this hefty number.

Tennessee +17 (120) and a small play on Tennessee ML.

 BOL to all!!!

 out!!!

As a side note, what I have been saying about McElroy and the offense since the Arkansas game has become mainstream news this week.  I've seen sevaral newspapers and shows that are now starting to pick-up on what I've been saying for weeks now.

Agree if I had to play a side I would want an SEC team getting DD

I will say what I said last week.  Alabama's offense will not score 30 points in this game.  Except for San Jose State and Duke, they haven't done it all season.  Yes, Tennessee will struggle to score points, but so will Alabama, and if Tennessee can score 13, they definitely cover this game.  10 will probably be enough.

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

wow jimmy....I was gonna lay off this game simply because the Vols offense does nothing for me....but you got me thinkin...if you like Tenn, do you like the under?

I do like the under.  I meant to say that in the writeup.  Thanks for reminding me.

Right on!!!  Have a good time, and make sure you sing Rammer Jammer if my Tide pull it out!!!

i really hope your right. i would love to see UT pull out something crazy saturday night.  outside of the georgia game, UT has been a very solid 1H team. i would probably play Tennessee on the 1H line, as i just dont think the have the depth to stay with bama for 4 quarters.  i believe tennessee will keep it close for a while and bama will eventually wear them down and have their way with tennessee late.  bol

JIMMY!!! come on man! I respect your opinions and your thoughts and I agree with all of them except one. THE MONEY LINE PLAY? Why is that? I am a HOMER I admit. I would take TENN plus the points but not the money line.

This is going to be a low scoring game but BAMA prevails in the 4th like allways ( except USC game).

Are you really going to be the money line? This is a huge rivalry game (you have already stated). Just because TENN has had a week off does not mean that they will beat BAMA!

For betting purposes i would take Tenn +17 but not the money line.

Please tell me you posted the TENN moneyline statement wrong?

GL TO WHATEVER YOU DO. I STILL HAVE A LOT OF RESPECT IN YOUR POSTS JIMMY!

I agree with everything you say.  I think Tennessee 1st half is a great play.

Haha!!!  I hope to God Tennessee doesn't win this game BamaStump!!!  I'll gladly lose my small $500 ML bet.  But the fact of the matter is that Alabama is ripe for an upset here.  This is a value play.  A $500 bet wins $2750.  A loss is only a $500 loss.  In situations like this one, a ML play makes good financial sense.

Roll Tide My Bama Brotha!!!

Freak,

I am with you, I think Alabama has 4 or 5 games this year where their opponent has a BYE week right before they play the Tide. I did not know Dooley was on Saban's staff.

This falls into one of my best betting trends, and I have seen Bama play, their Defense is not that good. I see Bama winning by 9 or 10 here.

Great write up, I am with you! GL Pal

Dooley coached with Saban from 2000-2006 at LSU and Miami.

Disagree on the defense.  Save for the USCe game, Bama is giving up 9 ppg.  If Bama wins or covers this game it will be because of their defense.

I approve of this message!!!

Here is an interesting answer former assistant coach Doug Mathews gave to a Tennessee reporter.

Q:  I know you follow Alabama closely, along with the rest of the SEC, what's been the problem with their ground game and could Tennessee actually learn something from the last couple of game tapes and give them problems? They've rushed for just 100 and 36 yards in each of the last two games, a severe drop from what we're used to seeing.

A:  It goes without saying that for Tennessee to have any chance to win this game they're going to have to really slow down Alabama's ground game. In my opinion that's the most important match-up about this game, because you're right, Alabama has struggled on the ground in the past couple of weeks.

I don't think that those problems are necessarily because of their own shortcomings on the ground or the opposing defense--at least not primarily. I think it's mostly because Alabama doesn't have the ability to really throw the football that well and defenses are really catching on and just jamming the box with extra defenders.

I think they have just a 'pretty good' quarterback, and they've worked with him a lot. But they're just not anywhere near as good passing the football as they are running it, not with the personnel they have. I've got to believe that this week, in this match-up, they'll make it a point to run the ball even more.

I'm a little surprised that they haven't given those two backs both 18-20 carries each every game. They haven't done that and in their loss at South Carolina I thought they got away from the run way too quickly. It looks to me like they're worrying too much about the defense having eight or nine guys close to the line of scrimmage and trying to beat it with the pass instead of just pounding the ball with those two backs.

What Mathew said falls right in line with what I've been saying about McElroy when he single-handedly cost me the cover in the Arkansas game.