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Bama @ Tennessee

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Posted: #51
My two cents as a Tennessee fan:

*Tennessee first half has been a great play all season, with a 4-1 record (L @Georgia). UT had actually covered the game line against UAB by halftime, but allowed a second half comeback. They were tied with Oregon, tied with LSU, and down 4 to Florida. 

*I see a lot of people saying Tennessee won't be able to score more than one offensive touchdown. Why not? They had 2 on the road against LSU, and LSU has shown more on defense than Alabama this year. 

*As a Vol fan, the thing that worries me most (as it has all year) is the defensive line. We came into the season expecting to only have 3 SEC-caliber DTs. Well, John Brown didn't qualify and Marlon Walls tore his Achilles in fall practice, so we've been playing with one, filling the second spot with walk-ons and ends playing out of position. Two weeks ago against Georgia, a nasty chop block put Montori Hughes out of the game, and he's doubtful this Saturday. We'll be starting Victor Thomas (the back-up center until Walls got injured, at which point he converted to DT) and Malik Jackson, who usually starts at DE. Even stacking the box, I'm not sure whether we can stop the run. 

*In conclusion: this is a really good spot for UT and a really bad spot for Alabama, in addition to being one of those rivalries where you can throw the records out the window. I absolutely would not bet Bama in this spot, but the D-line situation at UT would probably scare me off anything but a first half play. Either way, I'm hoping the Vols can get it done. 

Best of luck. 
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

I think this is a horrible spot for Bama IMO, just like it was last season.  If an offense cannot demonstrate that they are capable of scoring more than 24 points in a game, they have no business laying 17.  I think this will be a very close game.

I like LSU a lot.  I will be on them this weekend as well.

Don't like Nebraska at all.  I like the Cowboys at home with the points.

I have no opinion on Arizona.  I have no feel for the PAC 10 most of the time as my small play on UCLA tonight demonstrates.

I've been on Hawaii the last 3 weeks, but I don't like them in this spot at all.  I'm not betting this game, but if I did, I would be on Utah St..

 BOL PC!!!

 



I like Neb -6 , I think Okl St Defense is horrible even though they have not cost them a game yet. Neb will run all over them and have a defense to contain Okl St.

Hawaii -3 , I have follow them for the last 3 weeks like you and will continue to ride them this week. They are playing well on both side of the ball right now.

I might be wrong about the two games above but that is why it is gambling.

LSU + 6 is a huge bet for me this week as well..  Good Luck
 
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Posted: #53
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Since 8th grade McElroy has played a grand total of 2.5 season at QB - his senior year of HS, last season, and half of this season.

McElroy plays on a "team."  The teams McElroy has played on have lost 1 game while he's played QB, and thank God for McElroy it is a team sport.  If it weren't McElroy would not have a winning record.  In short, Alabama has been winning in spite of McElroy, NOT because of McElroy.

I'm quite familiar with Tennessee and all of their shortcomings.  Those shortcomings notwithstanding, I think Alabama -17 is a terrible bet for all the reasons stated in my writeup.

 


doubt he sat on bench in JHigh......meaning he has started or played a lot.... in say 57 games or so.....lost 2
currently #3 in comp %......#7 in yards/att....#6 in PR

here's a hint.....when searching for blame....(especially when dealing with PROVEN performers)....start your search INSIDE out....HC > OC > OL........THEN QB .....RB ......WR +++
     * you will usually find the guilty party WAY before  you reach QB....

* not even your boy G Gilbert .....who has stunk up the field.......as a passer.... probably the main culprit for his piss poor performance....(bring me the head of Greg Davis)......nor is COLT MCCOY.......who just completed 70% or so AT PITTSBURG.....on a BAD team ......for almost 300 yards ....necessarily deserving of the credit..........

BUT...fade the Browns this weekend.....and play on GG. and horns......Vols should get ass handed to them
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #55
gl as always freak great work
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

I'm sure everyone on this board knows this, but I'll mention it for those who don't, or those who have forgotten:  Alabama/Tennessee is a HUGE rivalry game.  It is one the biggest rivalries in all of college football.  Much has been written about the legend of the 3rd week in October, including many books.

Furthermore, if you need a refresher on how last year's game in Tuscaloosa ended clicky here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjvhJKOxj3M

I would also add that Derek Dooley has spent much of his coaching career as a Saban protege, so if there is anyone who knows what makes Saban tick, it's Dooley.

Like last season, Bama enters this game battered and bruised.  This will be their 8th consecutive game without a bye, and it is the back-end of 5 consecutive weeks of greuling SEC games.

Defensively, Donte Hightower is still receiving treatment for his surgically repaired knee, Courtney Upshaw and Marcell Dareus continue to be hobbled by ankle problems, and DBs DeQuan Menzie and DeMarcus Millner are coping with minor injuries.

On the offensive side of the ball Julio Jones continues to endure the pain of a broken and surgically repaired hand, RT and road grader DJ Fluker is still out with a severely pull groin muscle.  Additionally, RB Trent Richarson has been wearing a protective boot all week, and QB Greg McElroy is dealing with a badly bruised throwing hand after Jerrell Powe stepped on it in the Ole Miss game.

Meanwhile, in Knoxville, Dooley and his Volunteers having been healing, resting, and quietly preparing to host their biggest rival this Saturday.

Do these numbers ring a bell?  24, 24, 24, 19 & 23.  Give up?  This is the number of points Alabama's offense has scored against the 5 legitimate opponents they have face this season.  And the 23 in the Ole Miss game would have been 19 had Ole Miss not been flagged for a roughing the kicker penalty on a successfuly FG (terrible call BTW), which Bama eventually converted into a TD.

If you have been following my Bama write-ups this season, you know that the biggest problem they have offensively is a QB that no defense respects - and for very good reason.  Ole Miss proved again last week that defenses can take away the run by stacking 9-men in the box, can expose the middle of the field by consistently run-blitzing their safeties, and feel very confident that Greg McElroy cannot exploit the deep middle part of the field.  As long as GMac cannot stretch defenses and keep them honest, Bama will struggle to run the ball and score points.  I see nothing different in this game.

We all know that Tennessee is not overly talented; that they are young, and that they have anorexically thin depth.  But Vegas is offering us approximately 17 points with a rested, well-prepared and highly motivated Tennessee team playing at home against their arch-rival who is beat-up and battered, and struggles to score 20 offensive points.  Unless Tennessee gets shutout, and/or completely self-destructs with mistakes, I don't see Bama covering this hefty number.

Tennessee +17 (120) and a small play on Tennessee ML.

 BOL to all!!!

 out!!!

UGA/TENN Huge rivalry, even more so than this.  UGA crushed Tennessee. Sorry, but your post is ridiculous. you must be a Tennessee homer

 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:

My two cents as a Tennessee fan:

*Tennessee first half has been a great play all season, with a 4-1 record (L @Georgia). UT had actually covered the game line against UAB by halftime, but allowed a second half comeback. They were tied with Oregon, tied with LSU, and down 4 to Florida. 

*I see a lot of people saying Tennessee won't be able to score more than one offensive touchdown. Why not? They had 2 on the road against LSU, and LSU has shown more on defense than Alabama this year. 

*As a Vol fan, the thing that worries me most (as it has all year) is the defensive line. We came into the season expecting to only have 3 SEC-caliber DTs. Well, John Brown didn't qualify and Marlon Walls tore his Achilles in fall practice, so we've been playing with one, filling the second spot with walk-ons and ends playing out of position. Two weeks ago against Georgia, a nasty chop block put Montori Hughes out of the game, and he's doubtful this Saturday. We'll be starting Victor Thomas (the back-up center until Walls got injured, at which point he converted to DT) and Malik Jackson, who usually starts at DE. Even stacking the box, I'm not sure whether we can stop the run. 

*In conclusion: this is a really good spot for UT and a really bad spot for Alabama, in addition to being one of those rivalries where you can throw the records out the window. I absolutely would not bet Bama in this spot, but the D-line situation at UT would probably scare me off anything but a first half play. Either way, I'm hoping the Vols can get it done. 

Best of luck. 

LSU game- LSU had 5 turnovers. 5!!! LSU Almost doubled TENN yards. LSU almost beat themselves. Really didn't have anything to do with TENN being good.

UAB in Knoxville- almost lost to an AWFUL team. Lucky not to have lost that game.

UGA- got annhialated by a very mediocre UGA team. Isn't this a big rivalry? Why weren't you up for that game if your using the ole "this is a rivlary game" bullshit

Oregon??? So what you were winning in the first half. There are two halves and they KILLED you

A very bad Florida team beat you by 2 TD's.. 

Cmon homer, stop. Your team sucks. Your post is silly.

 

 
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Posted: #58
Nice writeup! I have this game Alabama 27 UT 10, I am on the under but not the spread. GL to you.
 
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Posted: #59

you are steady fading your team by the week now

even a small play on the moneyline, wow

 

best of luck

.
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:

My two cents as a Tennessee fan:

*Tennessee first half has been a great play all season, with a 4-1 record (L @Georgia). UT had actually covered the game line against UAB by halftime, but allowed a second half comeback. They were tied with Oregon, tied with LSU, and down 4 to Florida. 

*I see a lot of people saying Tennessee won't be able to score more than one offensive touchdown. Why not? They had 2 on the road against LSU, and LSU has shown more on defense than Alabama this year. 

*As a Vol fan, the thing that worries me most (as it has all year) is the defensive line. We came into the season expecting to only have 3 SEC-caliber DTs. Well, John Brown didn't qualify and Marlon Walls tore his Achilles in fall practice, so we've been playing with one, filling the second spot with walk-ons and ends playing out of position. Two weeks ago against Georgia, a nasty chop block put Montori Hughes out of the game, and he's doubtful this Saturday. We'll be starting Victor Thomas (the back-up center until Walls got injured, at which point he converted to DT) and Malik Jackson, who usually starts at DE. Even stacking the box, I'm not sure whether we can stop the run. 

*In conclusion: this is a really good spot for UT and a really bad spot for Alabama, in addition to being one of those rivalries where you can throw the records out the window. I absolutely would not bet Bama in this spot, but the D-line situation at UT would probably scare me off anything but a first half play. Either way, I'm hoping the Vols can get it done. 

Best of luck. 

Excellent info!!!  Thanks for the post.

 

 
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Posted: #61
This line is set to where im worried to bet either side
 
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Posted: #62

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


doubt he sat on bench in JHigh......meaning he has started or played a lot.... in say 57 games or so.....lost 2
currently #3 in comp %......#7 in yards/att....#6 in PR

here's a hint.....when searching for blame....(especially when dealing with PROVEN performers)....start your search INSIDE out....HC > OC > OL........THEN QB .....RB ......WR +++
     * you will usually find the guilty party WAY before  you reach QB....

* not even your boy G Gilbert .....who has stunk up the field.......as a passer.... probably the main culprit for his piss poor performance....(bring me the head of Greg Davis)......nor is COLT MCCOY.......who just completed 70% or so AT PITTSBURG.....on a BAD team ......for almost 300 yards ....necessarily deserving of the credit..........

BUT...fade the Browns this weekend.....and play on GG. and horns......Vols should get ass handed to them

McElroy did play in junior high.  That's what 8th grade is.    Grades 9-12 is high school.

Inasmuch as Alabama probaby has the best offensive line in college football, the best RBs in college football, and some of the best receivers in college football, what are we left with on the offensive side of the ball?

I'm not sure how Gilbert became my boy, but I'll take your word for it.  I've never said anything but complementary things about McCoy.

Although the Horns may very well cover this tomorrow, I'm not prepared to lay more than 3 TDs with them.

BOL to you this weekend BA!!!

 

 
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Posted: #63

"UGA/TENN Huge rivalry, even more so than this.  UGA crushed Tennessee. Sorry, but your post is ridiculous. you must be a Tennessee homer."

Quote Originally Posted by livie:

Ahhhhh dude!!!  You busted me!!!  I'm a Tennessee homer!!!  Was it that obvious?

 

 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

you are steady fading your team by the week now

even a small play on the moneyline, wow

best of luck

Alabama is finishing up the most brutal schedule stretch in college football tomorrow - 5 straight SEC games, 3 of which were on the road, and the last three opponents having 2-weeks to prepare.

I looked at Bama's schedule in February and knew back then this would be a very tough stretch for Bama, and that this would be a good time to fade them.  I have pretty much stuck to my pre-season betting strategy for Bama thus far.

I don't really think Bama will lose this game, but I definitely think that an upset is not beyond the realm of possibility.  I'll take a shot on +550 one time.

Thanks Wahoo, and BOL with your card as well.  We have a few common games this week.

 
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Posted: #65
Rick Moranis would be proud of your one time ML play
 
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Posted: #66

Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

Rick Moranis would be proud of your one time ML play

It's only because, as Livie has exposed above, I'm a "Tennessee homer."

 
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Posted: #67
jimmy with another bang up play?

I hope so.  I have no choice but to follow, as you've padded my account with your Bama plays for or against.  If Bama rolls, so be it.  Your strategy of fading your team is solid.  Don't know about you, but I have no problem betting against my team, yet rooting for them at kickoff.  Some people can't do it.

I must say, this is a hard spot for me to go against your team.  MUCH harder than that USC first half (the other USC) play, which made complete sense.  I think the Vols are in for a long stretch (5 yrs) of bad football and Dooley ain't the guy.  Whatever, they can cover til their eyes fall out....wins will be hard to come by in the foreseeable future.

Good luck 

FREAK OUT
 
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Posted: #68
Yea biased jimmy and his Vols
 
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Posted: #69
I must add that your ML play is freakin' OUTRAGEOUSLY NUTS
 
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Posted: #70
no way im doing a straight bet on this game, i did do a small parlay, adam wins said alabama would cover, and he does pretty good pickin CFB.  JIMMY i hope your wrong, im a big bama fan, an the homer in me says alabama will stick it to tenn. saban is smart and im sure he wont keep doing the same thing and expecting a better result, he gets paid too much money. saban is very close with barbara dooley (dereks mom)) saban will not run the score up even if he can.but with the bcs rankings, points are important and the players know this, so if they can, they will run up as many points as possible, and i hope they do

other bets  RUTGERS -13
       
                 NORTHWESTERN  +6

                 AUBURN  -5.5

                 VANDY  +13

                 DOLPHINS  +3
 
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Posted: #71
also , i met JSU gamecocks head coach Jack Crowe , this week, he is a class act and our gamecocks are still undefeated , we play austin peay today, this game should not be a problem.
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by ksuwins:

jimmy with another bang up play?

I hope so.  I have no choice but to follow, as you've padded my account with your Bama plays for or against.  If Bama rolls, so be it.  Your strategy of fading your team is solid.  Don't know about you, but I have no problem betting against my team, yet rooting for them at kickoff.  Some people can't do it.

I must say, this is a hard spot for me to go against your team.  MUCH harder than that USC first half (the other USC) play, which made complete sense.  I think the Vols are in for a long stretch (5 yrs) of bad football and Dooley ain't the guy.  Whatever, they can cover til their eyes fall out....wins will be hard to come by in the foreseeable future.

Good luck 

FREAK OUT

I hope it's another "bang up" play KSU.  That's the plan.

I think this is an ideal spot to fade Bama.

BOL today KSU!!!

 
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Posted: #73

Quote Originally Posted by bburgessl:

no way im doing a straight bet on this game, i did do a small parlay, adam wins said alabama would cover, and he does pretty good pickin CFB.  JIMMY i hope your wrong, im a big bama fan, an the homer in me says alabama will stick it to tenn. saban is smart and im sure he wont keep doing the same thing and expecting a better result, he gets paid too much money. saban is very close with barbara dooley (dereks mom)) saban will not run the score up even if he can.but with the bcs rankings, points are important and the players know this, so if they can, they will run up as many points as possible, and i hope they do

other bets  RUTGERS -13
       
                 NORTHWESTERN  +6

                 AUBURN  -5.5

                 VANDY  +13

                 DOLPHINS  +3

Jimmydafreak > Adam Wins 

I like your Rutgers and Northwestern plays.  I'm on the other side on Vandy.

Good luck today!!!

 
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Posted: #74
Like the under also. GL
 
 
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Posted: #75

My take for this game

The Volunteers have had a disastrous season sitting at the 2-4 mark, but they have a chance to makeup for a lot of heart break if they could upset the Crimson Tide this week. Alabama will be facing their 3rd straight opponent who has had the week off before meeting on the grid iron. The Crimson Tide lost to South Carolina and only managed a 23-10 victory over a struggling Ole Miss team last week. It is safe to say that having some extra time to heal and prepare definitely has it's advantages possibly more in the grueling SEC than any other conference, but the question is how will that influence Saturday's nights contest at Neyland Stadium?

For Alabama this will be the last SEC opponent they face that is currently not ranked in the top 25 so they will be preparing for a grueling 2nd half of the season. The Crimson Tide lost some of their momentum in the upset loss to South Carolina and they did not exactly have the bounce back performance most expected last week against Ole Miss. The biggest concern during those two games has been the rushing attack which has been the biggest success factor for Alabama over the last two years. Last year's Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram has been held to less than 70 yards rushing in the last two games and the equally dangerous threat in Trent Richardson has only tallied 68 yards in the last two outings combined.

Alabama has rushed for 183 yards per game this season with the help of their dangerous tailbacks, but that have been a bit out of character in the last two weeks. The Tennessee defense has been suspect to opposing rushing offenses this season giving up 153 yards per game so this will be Alabama's best chance to get their running game back on track before heading into some brutal competition to close the season. Now I am not saying that Alabama has to run the ball to get the victory, but the offense is perhaps most dangerous when the running offense is in full force. QB Greg McElroy has been rock solid completing 72% on the season for 11 scores and just 3 picks. McElroy will definitely test some deep balls to WR Julio Jones (33 rec, 448 yards) in attempt to make some big plays against a very young Tennessee secondary. If those plays connect, Alabama could really silence the crowd of over 100,000 early in this game.

On the other hand the Volunteer defense will be trying to do just the opposite and shut down this powerful Alabama offense. Alabama biggest strength may be among their offensive line so a lot of pressure will be on the Tennessee defensive front to penetrate and get some stops against the run. In their biggest challenges against strong rushing teams this season in Oregon, Florida and LSU, the Volunteers defense has given up right at 200 yards per game on average against those offenses. Therefore, there is a lot of concern whether the defense can step up and stop Alabama's rushing offense and if history is any indication this season the odds maybe stacked against them.

On offense the Volunteers have just been inconsistent. QB Matt Simms has completed 57% for 1,136 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 4 picks. Simms has thrown interceptions at critical moments in football games and just has not been consistent throwing the football. Simms has thrown 3 of his 7 touchdown passes for 40 yards or more but outside of a few big plays the offense has been fairly dismal. Tennessee leads the conference in 3 and outs and has converted just 27% of their 3rd down conversions. Due to the passing game inconsistencies, the Volunteers have turned to running back Tauren Poole more than perhaps they would have preferred. Poole has 478 yards on the season and Tennessee will definitely give him some touches again this Saturday in hopes of igniting the sputtering offense.

Alabama has not covered in their last two outings, but this is a good spot for them to get back on the winning side this week. Tennessee has not scored more than 14 points in their last two outings and they will be going against a possibly even better defense this week. I expect Alabama to force Simms to turn the ball over some here and that will help Alabama get some short field situations that should help the Crimson Tide scoring.

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