BC can't hang with Nevada,can they?

you can't be serious!  if you had not put in Nebraska and Missouri, you would immediately get laughed off the face of the planet... that's why!

i agree with the play on Nevada... this is a 20 point win from everything i can see... i have an extensive chart that is the result of tracking every game by every team, and rating them out in 6 different ways... that chart has provided the following plays this bowl season:

BYU, No Ill, Air Force, Missouri, Maryland, Okla St, Kansas St and Alabama... those plays are 6-2 ATS, and none of those plays lost by more than 6 points (4 if you go by opening lines)...

the remaining plays are Tx A&M, Nevada and Oregon... and the strongest play of any game on my chart is... you guessed it: Nevada!

no disrespect to cappers on this site, but i will take the track record of my chart (which has had similar success the past 2 years during Bowl Season... the only previous two years i have done these ratings), over any and every capper on this site...

BC may have a somewhat decent chance of covering the spread, with some kind of backdoor cover... but the chances of them winning this game are extremely low...

another facet of my ratings (which rate every team's performance on a game-by-game basis from 1 to 10), is the fact that BC has not rated above a 7 in any game this season, and did that only twice... to put that into context, Nevada only rated below a 7 once this year (a 6 against Hawaii)... BC was "consistent," with nothing below a 4... but the fact that Nevada's 2nd worst game of the year rates as high as BCs best game of the year, tells me that anyone who thinks BC is going to win this game has not looked deeply enough into this game...

again, the success of these ratings speak for themselves, as far as i'm concerned... i don't bet any game solely on the basis of my chart, but unless other factors steer me away from it, i take it seriously... in this case, Nevada has much greater motivation than BC, is a short drive away from where they are playing, against a team travelling cross country, and will have a very partial crowd in SF...

do what you want with it... Nevada is a much better team, playing against a Bowl team without a single quality win, and has much greater motivation and crowd support... not to mention the far superior QB and in my opinion, the better coach as well...

number looks about right to me~~~~~~PASS~~~~~~~~~

BC can be so painful to watch at times, but Nevada feels too comfortable to bet.  BC or no bet for me right now.

Haha i will agree, but we all know that doesnt make it correct.  Im lookin at this game regardless of who is on what team, as i have watched every Nevada game this year and i feel that i know them fairly well.  I cant say ive seen many BC games so the next couple days im going to take some time and look over what BC has done this year. 

As of right now, i havent seen any indication that BC can stop this Nevada high powered offense.  However, hopefully we can get a doozie of a discussion going about this game instead of the usual "pissing match" 

I never said it did. Just something I noticed.

I feel like everyone has made their bets already.

No point.

Nevada has a high powered offense because of who and where they play. Defense isnt mandatory. Now, the Big East and ACC? Yeah, those conferences play some defense.

I think the only indication you need is when Nevada stepped out of conference away from home. How have they done? That is the spot you are in here.....

Well, they havent really been impressive - actually, thats an overstatement. They have been hideous.

You give BC weeks to prepare for a gimmick offense?? Yikes.

If Hawaii can do that to Nevada, BC surely can. In response to your post, I havent see anything that says BC wont stop Nevada.

Nevada is not playing at home in conference anymore. You are now playing the big boys.

And listen, your other biggest supporter in here is some guy who cant pick his ass and is touting a 'math model'? Come on.

 in this case, Nevada has much greater motivation than BC, is a short drive away from where they are playing, against a team travelling cross country, and will have a very partial crowd in SF...

do what you want with it... Nevada is a much better team, playing against a Bowl team without a single quality win, and has much greater motivation and crowd support... not to mention the far superior QB and in my opinion, the better coach as well...
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To add to this, i believe Nevada sold close to 20k tickets to this game and they even have all kinds of "car pool" promotions going on since its a short 3.5 hour drive to SF.

Furthermore, this is the BEST season Nevada has EVER had in the history of the football program, and couple that with it being Kap and Taua (not to mention a ton other players)'s last game in a Nevada jersey, they will want to end it on a positive note.  And after last year's shennanigans at the bowl game, i could see them havin a chip on their shoulder and coming out with something to prove.

As always, its just my opinion

Nevada

I would almost chalk this up as a home game, as it a short 3.5 hour drive to SF with a very large fan base following.  The out of conference does scare me a bit, but Nevada has shown THIS YEAR they win the games they are supposed to, short of Hawaii that i will mention in a few. 

Granted the WAC is not defense oriented, but at the same time is the ACC really offense oriented?  Would you say that Hawaii has more of a defensive package than Boise State.  Hawaii game Nevada had 4 or 5 TOs, with 2 being Kap just losing the ball.  Furthermore, Nevada hasnt won in Hawaii in over 50 years, so I am not sure i can officially chalk that up to Hawaii's defense. 

Also, is there a team that BC has faced that has any sort of offensive balance and dual threat QB as Nevada?  Even with a month to prepare, its not like this pistol offense is something new, yet people still cant seem to figure it out.  On the flip side, some would argue that Nevada has gotten a taste of good defense when they played Boise State, whose 4th in total defense, 4th in pass defense, and 10th in rush D.  Yes it was at home, but this will be like a home game for them.

As for the other biggest supporter, i am not sure about him, im just voicing how I see the game.   

and what has BC done out of conference?  im not a huge follower of that conference, and i honestly dont know, so i am curious

Neither am I, neither do I.



I just think that Nevada is a step down in competition from what BC sees everyday. They have maybe 4 players, out of 22, that would start on anyone BC has played.

i think BC will win!

Harris is going to have a field day.

I dont think Kap can hold either Russell Wilson or Tyrod Taylor's jock - both dual threat QBs who play at big-time programs and play big-time schools, not those kid sisters that Nevada faces week in and week out.

Those are not Boise's defensive stats on the road - which is where they played that game.

I just looked at who Nevada played this year - LOL. Geez. No wonder why these teams get no respect.

Boise States Road Rush defense on the road is #5 in the nation, pass defense is #10.  not too far off from the overall numbers. 

Kap cant hold their jock?  Kap finished 8th in the heisman votes this year and neither Wilson or Taylor even made the top 10, and thats WITHOUT a "big-time" program supporting him. Furthermore, when BC played those dual threat QBs, one at home and one of the road, they got beat and BADLY one game giving up 422 yds to NC State and 344 to VaTech

As for who Nevada played, they have 2 quality wins in my eyes.  One being Cal (out of conference), who we were underdogs to, and another being Boise state, who we were also underdogs to.  Even if you throw out the Cal game, we still beat Boise State at home.   Name a quality win BC has had at home?  They didnt beat ONE team in the ACC with a winning record

Interesting info i found that i was not aware of: 

Kaepernick is also the first quarterback in NCAA history to throw for at least 9,000 yards and gain another 4,000 on the ground, a feat that might never be duplicated.

That means nothing to me. Kap plays against shit competition. With the gimmick offense they run, I think he should have came in no less than 4th place. 8th place? Geez.

Wilson and Taylor put up big #s in big conferences playing real opponents. Put those QBs against the kind of defenses Nevada faces?? Yeah, right. Their #s would be astronomical.

Every time you make an argument or a statement, I cant help but look at how your argument got to where it did. By saying how well Nevada did against complete shit. I cant give anything Nevada did any respect. 

BC is not the same team you saw in September and early October. Those games mean nothing to me at this point. If you saw or followed anything BC did, there was a serious change in attitude and record, after Shinskie went down. Any games where he played I cannot count, its a different demeanor and effort.

Nevada has played one game away from home this year against a team with a rushing pulse and they got eaten alive. I expect more of the same.

THIS WILL BE AS CLOSE TO A HOME GAME AS NEVADA CAN POSSIBLY GET.

Yes, Nevadas conference was weak, but they beat the shit out of the teams they were supposed to.  Just like the Boise State situation, they are stuck in the WAC so all they can do it run the table.  Minus the Hawaii debacle, Nevada would have went undefeated, but they didnt and settled for 12-1 in the WAC, which according to you is putrid, but if Boise State beats Nevada and goes undefeated they have an argument for the National Championship?

Im not doubting that BC is a different team now, as its evident with the last couple wins, but lets be honest, those 4 wins were against teams that are 7-25 in ACC conference play and 16-33 overall.  not exactly top notch competition either

BC has played one game away from home with a balanced offense and they got torched 44-17 for 422 yards.   

 

Listen, I know I shouldnt get or be down on Nevada because of their conference. Whenever someone uses that argument against me, I always reference how those other players are on scholarship too.

Maybe this is the square in me, but I have that same feeling I advocate against others having. I dont think Nevada is in the same class because of who they play.

Its terrible thinking, admittedly, but something I cant get past.

Yeah, I think Boise has an argument if they beat Nevada. That team schedules out of conference and always shows up for big games. Bowl games? Boise kills it. Out of conference matchups? Boise isnt afraid to schedule them away from home. I give that a lot of respect. I dont know many teams, if any, that are willing to start their year with Va Tech 2000 miles away from home. I give them tons of respect.

About the last statement, well, something has got to give because BC hasnt given up more than 24 points in damn near 3 months.

Hopefully this has helped some other people.

I dont think we need to do this any more.

Good stuff, BU.

Im glad you posted this last quote to appear humble.

 

Boise had beaten Oregon in Eugene...It's not that Boise doesn't want to travel, its the other way around, some teams don't want to commit to a home and away rotation.

 

Hey Bets no disrespect but Hawaii kicked Nevada's ass. I've seen you mention this game at least twice in threads. Lets set the record straight. First of all, if not for a kickoff and punt return in the late 3rd and early 4th quarters that set up short fields (both Nevada TD's), that interception late in the 4th quarter would not have mattered.You mention CK fumbling the ball at the goal line. He was showbaoting and paid the price for it. Hawaii knows CK is a 50% passer at best when he has to throw from the pocket and that's how you beat Nevada. Look at last year's Hawaii Bowl. SMU's June Jones has seen him as a freshman and knows of Ck's lack of accuaracy and basically kept him behind the line of scrimmage and he couldn't do the job. Where he's dangerous is when you let him get to the edge where he can run or throw (Cal game). He's good in those situations and very effective. If BC recognizes this deficiency, there is no way Nevada wins.

Time and time again i have learned to not go against Colin Kaepernick .