BOWL GUIDE 2021-22

@JDHERMOSA

 it wont matter since in bowl games, winners usually cover too. just go ml or dare -2.5 miss

@JDHERMOSA

 it wont matter since in bowl games, winners usually cover too. just go ml or dare -2.5 miss

right on!

@bookieassassin

 YES!!!! FOR SURE! AGREE! LARGELY PLACED EARLIER $ line !!! so happy that you like it more! let's cash this ticket, B.A.    thank you , happy new year!   POST #221

Definitely gonna tail your big ole miss play BA! Thanks for sharing as always

Well dad gum BA we may have caught a bad break with coral getting knocked out of game

Happy New Year BA! thanks for all you do really enjoy learning from you guys on here, Notre Dame tried to ruin my year on day one I guess but we're shaking it off. Know for next year not to go that heavy on bowl. Hope 2022 is a winner for ya 

@bookieassassin

 SHIT HAPPENS!!! WELL, still a great year "tailing YOU  B.A. ! thank you and HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Ain’t done yet!  

Teasing Pitt to k state Bol everyone  love your style assassin 

Here's what LSU will *roughly* be left with - roughly because they had to put out a depth chart .... which is only a GUESS - it seems like more will be missing (last minute opt outs or Covid)

     eg. they list Nussmeier at QB (only QB on scholarship) - but supposedly he's out, his waiver denied (they ain't saying)

OFFENSE

QB - 2 walk ons + a WR running wildcat stuff (from spring 5th stringer)

RB - 3rd stringer roughly

WR's - 1 starter + #2/#3

TE - #2

OL- all starters should play

DEFENSE

DL - 1 starter / 3 #2's

LB - 1 #2 / 1 #3

DB - #2 / #3 CB's #2 SS / #1 FS #2 N

    $ basically anybody that was any good is gone ......about 40 scholarship players or less at kick-off - but their young guys are talented of course, and should play hard for awhile anyway

KANSAS ST 

Cats are pretty much INTACT - from their post spring depth chart .....lost 1 OL early, and one DE early as well

     >> no opt outs / OC was fired, replaced by Collin Klein (probably good thing). QB Thompson is close to 100% supposedly, and said THIS is the biggest game of his life

Love KSU here - you knuckleheads STILL waiting for some odd reason - the 7 is still probably good - I'll be looking to add in-game or 2H. If the wild azz Cajuns are a no show here - they should get KILLED. Since we have no idea what the LSU O will look like, I would stay away from the total. The only total for me would be KSU TT OVER..... maybe LSU TT UNDER.. Tigers couldn't run at full strength (3.2/rush). KSU pass D not great but they can bring heat - and LSU does not protect well (#116).

Q and 1H/2H notes

1H - KSU D only allowed 4 passing TD's all year / their O only 4 passing TD's/6 INT

       LSU rush O weak (2.5/rush - 3 TD's all year)

2H - KSU rush D much tougher (only 2 TD's allowed) / rush O much weaker / O -only 1 INT 2H

       LSU rush D much weaker / rush O much better / pass D weakens (16TD/2INT)

1Q - LSU allowed 1 rush TD / scored 2 rush TD's

2Q - KSU rush O 6.5/rush - 9 TD

3Q - LSU rush D much worse (4.6) / rush O better

4Q - KSU only 3.3/rush

I couldnt help but take KState but its hard to feel great about bc by the time I got it was already at 7.  At the same time, when you look at how these teams have played down the stretch, Kstate struggled to move the ball against Baylor and Texas.  Really they havent been good all year.  A healthy Skylar Thompson helps, but it's not exactly like hes been great this season.  It's easy to understand why they fired the OC before the bowl game, and am expecting a new play caller will give this offense a little boost by adding a few wrinkles.  Also LSU's inexperience could lead to issues with signals/getting lined up/and blown coverages.    Even as depleted as LSU is right now, they've been down a lot of top players last half of the season, and they still managed to play @ Bama to a 20-14 game w chance to win on GW drive (They had 2 TO's still held Bama to 20).  The next week they held Arkansas to 13 points. Lsu's secondary is their biggest issue, but KState isint really a team that slices teams through passing game.

On the other hand it's really tough to beat any team with a 4th string walk on QB.  The LSU offense has struggled to find their footing throughout season, and when they were playing well it was because of QB Max Johnson.  I will probably place a bigger live bet after seeing how these teams come out of the gate.

@alopez14325

 Yes they were down a lot of people last half of season but now a ton of the starters aren’t playing … so the team that held bama to 20 won’t even be close to being on the field 

My notes on LSU Depth chart show they have all the main WR's and TE's other than Boutte ..  Deion Smith, Koy Moore Injured only half games this year, Trey Palmer the one WR w/ subst. all games 300 yds xferred .. they might be better than the starters but I show more/less in tact unit .. Same w OL .. Dellinger not on the DC, top 4 in snaps listed and #6,7 .. Cam Wire was starter injured ~6 games is back .. but same 2 or 3 guys are backups at all the positions and can't possibly be good at each spot .. But offensively I just got QB/HB as the big questions .. but yeah the ?'s are humongous .. also OL coach now HC .. he was former run coordinator at prev jobs, unsure if he was ever play caller or who is here but would expect a try out and pretty run heavy / maybe wildcat ..

Defense looks in the worst shape .. 3 of the secondary combined for 100 total snaps .. one starting corner has 3 snaps at corner .. maybe one of the starters even cracked the rotation to start the year? .. 1 LB played 12 games #3 LB tackler .. other starter 29 snaps .. I see no snaps for either backup .. have 1 starter DL .. 3 / top 4 out .. thin there and rotating will be a who knows .. DE looks (maybe?) best shape w top 3 in snaps for the year playing but 2 of these guys only in 8 games this year .. backups <100 snaps in 5 or fewer games .. also Gaye and Anthony were the better DE's but injured early so "top" guys is a misnomer ..

So couple big ?'s from LSU Offense but w a couple in tact units it could just be questions .. think we can trust LSU's D is in trouble .. says LSU only 4 coaches too but they trying out for a spot w Kelly? .. I would be .. did hear K-State might have a couple last minute updates but nothing toooo too wild .. Former QB Collin Klein is filling in as OC/Playcaller .. offense is sooo much better w Sky Thompson in there, never reallly thought much of him but apparently hitting 68% and Sky/Deuce combo is very good punching in TD's in the RZ when he was playing this year .. I would say if Wildcats can't get it done vs this rag tag LSU D backups and no names after they say they are all puuuumped up and ready to rock then gotta wonder why they'd keep Kleiman around its not his NDSU offense has taken the B12 by storm here .. I'm on K-State TT Over 26.5 for a decent bet .. was nice to grab it at even odds .. 

Good luck!

@bookieassassin

 thank you B.A. I bought it at KANSAS ST. -3 days ago after reading your thread! now after reading POST #239 , I am happier! happy new year! LET'S CASH THIS TICKET, SIR!!!! thx

small play

KSU / LSU 2H OVER 20'

   * at BM - LSU D should wear down / LSU O will have to open things up = a few TO's

It sure looks like an over with the way KSU started opening up the playbook a little late in the second quarter. Depth could become an issue for the LSU defense in the second half if they don't find a running game and eat some clock for their D.

Thanks for sharing your picks BA !

FANtastic bowl season 

Well read yet again BA!  

1 more game and college football over 

@bookieassassin

 thank you B.A. WINNER   KANSAS STATE -3 ! TRULY A GREAT SEASON TAING YOU,SIR!! AWESOMELY GREAT!! GEORGIA  NOW UP TO -3 my place !!! BUT waiting on your advice, INDEEDLY!!!