bowl stuff.....

and BA congrats on an excellent bowl season!   

The big 12 has got destroyed this year.  If Baylor had not lost to Texas they would have played Ole Miss in the Sugar and it would have been a different outcome.  The big twelve could have easily gone without a bowl win this season.  Just hope BA is right with W. Virginia.

BA- Fantastic calls this bowl season. It's really fun to see someone like you and a few others excel at their craft. Few have the talent to do it at your level. Happy New Year and good luck through the last few games. 

WV has a few players not playing better check befor eyou bet them , I took AZ because of that 

Congrats on the OM pick. I liked em but never quite got to where I called for a full play on my thread... with you so strong i pounded when it dropped late again toward 7 and had alot of fun w it. Great bowl run BA!

RESET

KEY-  knowing when to stress the MATCH-UP...and when to focus on OTHER STUFF
  *only when BOTH teams are fully focused...like play-offs....do you look to match-up primarily

AX yourself...............
  *where did they want to be when the season began?

eg.....when it's 4:00p / 110 heat index...(Frogs work in the heat) > Is Patterson screaming....."SON... we'll never make it to the F'in Alamo Bowl if you keep half-azzin' it like that !".......nope > it's play-offs....or NOTHING
  *this is what drives them thru the tough days in/off season

key... is WHEN did their bubble burst....how did their season play out?....'write a story kinda sorta..

FROGS?....as late as 1st week in November...their sights CLEARLY were on a national title....AND Heisman Trophy....
   *now that you've seen OU and Okie St play outside B12....and Baylor QB situation....those dreams were actually realistic

Ducks?....knew they were rebuilding DAY 1
  *While Alamo Bowl / San Antonio is a horrible trip for Frogs.....it's the #2 slot for the (abused) PAC12....any false play-off hopes were shot down SEPT 12 at Sparty anyway
   *EMBARRASSED here in TEXAS last year (Ducks recruiting Texas hard now)....this one is huge for the programs direction...> long azz trip back to Eugene with friends/family that came to see you play.....now back in Texas again.......

  Frogs LY had one of top victories in school history....maybe 2nd behind Rose Bowl ??
  *they came back FAT / HAPPY.....zero pressure here....makes them slightly dangerous here as well you bet   


THE PROBLEM?.....in handicapping these bowls....is defining what you mean by motivated
  *everybody thinks GAME TIME.....WRONG
   few dog it on national TV.....(linemen can hide
   a bit better than others)....
       ** PREPARATION is what suffers

?.....How focused do you think Boykin was before they left FW?.....as the team leader / best player...do you feel he INFLUENCED the younger players?.....WHY HELLl YEAH
  $$$  how bout my man VERNON THE BALLER?
    in his final game on American soil?........
    ** is he focused here?............holy crap

 Side note on VA....really he's had very little practice time to get the Duck O down pat....
   *he got in late...so only what 2-3 weeks in fall....then hurt his finger vs Sparty...so that set him back a few weeks.....
  $$$ these extra bowl practices should really help....expect him to look even better here....   


ARIZ ST?.....when season began Graham said THIS was his BEST TEAM....
  *off a magical trip to El Paso last year to face DUKE......NOW they find themselves 6-6 in the CACTUS BOWL....facing a (underachieving yes but capable WV).....EXCITED MUCH?

WV ?....off 2 straight bowl losses (no bowl 4-8/2013)....Dana needs this one bad
  *IMO........Looks like it was too much / too soon for WV....3-0 (beat the crap outta Ga Southern and Maryland....then @ OU > Okie St > @ Baylor > @ TCU > TT > Texas...
  *won last 4....lost last game to a desperate KST away

My thinking here is that they are underrated...and  given time to regroup they have the EDGE here and can / should win...
  *don't really LOVE it....as they turn the ball over too much to trust....Devils can win this one as well sure

I'll have a bit more on each game tomorrow....

$ If I forget / or pass out drunk again....hey man another day off wtf..........

Love Penn St....they win / keep it tight

K St / Ark....avoid best maybe....Hogs could/should kill KSU....doesn't feel right to me  
  *lean OVER....maybe KSU 1H ??

Ducks/ Frogs.....Duck D is weak...Frogs should RUN early....probably get out to an early lead....DON'T PANIC....Vernon will settle down...>> eventually run 'em out of the bldg
  *note : best player on the field is Duck DE DeForest Buckner.....2nd best is VA.....a probable Heisman Trophy candidate if healthy all year.......

ASU / WV- I did that 1H under....both D's should give others O problems....so with LONG lay-off 32 seems like a lot for 1H here...both play fast so any under is shaky.....1H under maybe good for Oregon /TCU too.....waiting on total to rise.... 

Forgot....already did the TAXSLAYER bowl.............

TAXSLAYER BOWL

PENN STATE (7-5/4-8/4-7-1) vs. GEORGIA (9-3/4-7/2-9)
12:00p E  Jacksonville, Florida (Grass Field)
  * *low 60's / cloudy / 10mph / no rain

PSU-  *HC Franklin 3-1/3-1/1-0 dog in bowls
      *OC fired
      *O cannot move chains...cannot score RZ...cannot protect (esp passing downs)....only score with big plays.....
         note: MUST be able to RUN...esp on 1st /2nd down....avoid 3rd/long....
         *** advantage maybe with new OC / Georgia has no idea what they will see
      *ST fairly weak...esp defending KR / PR < Georgia strength
     
       *D - a team strength...#1 nation rushing passer
            *Georgia should struggle to move it as well

Georgia-  HC / OC / DC + others all gone...interim HC will leave for SC right after game.....mascot died a few weeks back....VULTURES were seen circling practice > later perched high in stadium to watch practice .....seriously ha
          *LB Kimbrough (3rd LT) and FB Hicks are out
          *Ga D great vs efficient / patient O's...weaker vs big play O's > so Penn St matches up ok here
              pass D is strength (one of nation's best)
           *ST are (relatively) weak...return game is strong < not good for PSU

in-game / halftime-
  *PSU - O same all 4....weakest in 3rd Q (only 44 pts all year)
         D best in 1Q...weak in 2Q / 3Q....strong in 4th
  *Ga -  O great in 3rd...weakest in 4th and 1st
         D great in 3rd...v good in 1Q...bad in 2Q

$  SURE...Georgia shows up FULLY FOCUSED they punish Penn St......But HOW......can they be ready to play here?

IMO....PSU /  HC Franklin will find a way to keep this close...or win outright.....NO PLAY on Georgia here at all IMO
   *I played at 7...anything over 3' should be OK...
             **note 3Q variance....so adding very small plays on Georgia 3Q...Penn St 4Q...................
              

In-game stuff....

IF.....you see that new OC for PSU...has somehow figured out how to run > move it consistently on 1st / 2nd down......they can WIN the game........If not....and we see that YET AGAIN they're forced into 3rd longs......and Georgia D is teeing off on Hackenburg...they will probably lose
  *note:  'new OC' for bowl is actually WR coach...seems.like...didn't mean to imply that the actual new hire .....has already installed new O > that would be bad
  *he IS making changes...but can't do much in 2-3 weeks

Fantastic work, BA! Best of luck today on the bowls

Great call on Ole Miss...Looks like they wanted to make up for that TCU meltdown last year....Think PAttersons coachign keeps the tcu/oregon game close.  Hard to pass on the over as well.  BOL rest of the way

adding small play Oregon/TCU 1H under 38

small on Kan St / Ark OVER 55'

This is not meant to be negative. Bookie assassin had been nothing short of uncredible this season. The issue I have with today's picks is that the vaunted "Prediction Machine" which is now advertised at the sports books in Vegas is having its worst College Football season ever. It has released nine prime picks for the bowl season so far...they are 0-9. Today they have three prime picks...Penn St+7, Oregon St even and W. Va +1. Because I have been fading their picks, I had to pass today because Bookie Assasin fell on the same games and I would never fade BA. So no action for me today. Great season, thanks.

Meant to say "incredible" season

YOU, MEGA AND BWS ARE BY FAR MY FAVORITE READS ON COVERS ...

CACTUS BOWL

WEST VIRGINIA (7-5/5-7/3-9) vs. ARIZONA STATE (6-6/5-7/3-8-1)
10:15P E  Phoenix, Arizona (Retractable Roof; Grass Field)

* see above post for motivational stuff...
    full disclosure:  I have been on WVirg 2-3X TY > wrong on all counts....I overestimated their D....that struggles vs big play / explosive O's ....like many in B12.


WV -   DH 1-2 SU / 1-2 ATS in bowls...LY lost to A&M 45-37/2012 L to Cuse 38-14
  *all B12 CB Worley is out...and #3 WR Durante too

ASU -  TG 3-2/3-2...LY beat Duke in SB 36-31 /2013 lost to TT 37-23 (-17)...ASU 2-4 SU last 6 bowls
  *OC is GONE...note Graham a defensive coach

MATCH-UP
 *general- ASU with the better O (better QB / more weapons)...WV with the better D
      ST about the same...WV is +11 in turnovers...ASU even

  *match-up - WVirg O a running team (run 49X / pass 29X)...that is efficient (#31)...can make big plays but QB Howard inconsistent / limited weapons at WR...note:  Howard has been fighting minor injuries all year as well > better here....note RB Smallwood Big12's #1 rusher
              ASU D- tough vs efficient O's...one of nation's worst at giving up big plays...allowed 21 passes of 40+ (#129)...30 TD / 13 INT.....their DL is extremely disruptive/ secondary is terrible   
      BUT....WV OL excels at preventing penetration (#12)..note: ASU RZ D is not a strength........WV RZ O just average

              Ariz St O - more balanced (42X rushing / 40X passing)...more explosive than efficient...many more weapons than WV...BAD in RZ.....(no team attempted more RZ FG's than ASU)...
                WVirg D - in S&P efficiency ranks #18 vs ASU D #79...pass D the strength (51%..20 TD / 23 INT) ....their DL not as disruptive....havoc is created by back 8 (3-3-5)......
 
  note WVirg D is strong vs efficient O's..vulnerable vs big play O's...BUT very tough in RZ.....no doubt WV will give up a few big plays...key here maybe will WVirg O move the ball well enough to keep their (THIN) D off the field?

$  As stated before...I think WVirginia comes here with more of an edge...AND matches up more favorably than most think
     *I'll look for a lower scoring 1H...look to play 2H OVER
       still like WV to win / cover..................

it's all guesswork my man.........who TF knows.....things could turn UGLY at any moment
   *my door bell rings?.....could be hot Asian chick ready to do the devils bizness....psycho with a machete....or worse the IRS....
I'm ready for anything.....ha

BUT....today so far 2-0-1
Ga 3Q W....PSU 4Q W....PSU +7 push......with lost QB

pending KSU / Hogs over....looking good
Ducks/Frogs 1H under
WV/ ASU 1H under
Ducks


FORGOT...
WV / ASU under 1H 'logic'........

Both D's are extremely tough early
  *top 10 in nation efficiency D

ASU O weakest...by far in 1-2Q.....WV O best in 3Q...excellent in 2Q.........note ASU O gets BETTER as game progresses...D gets worse....each Q

much appreciated.......

BA........a big thanks for all your contributions

THANKS !!!!!.....................

Few skills tho my man ....just a dumb southern boy sitting here ...working harder rather than SMARTER.......with a cheap computer and a BIG CHIEF tablet / fat #2 pencil..............

LH (Frost is gone).....Boomer....Bridge....dmfan21....Achilles1629....robtri...skipster (PETA will call you soon)......Bcboyz...Lionmonster...Michfan15...choppedwood.... 

Much appreciated boys BOL today..............

Hey BA,  Great bowl season this year.  In your original list of plays you had WVa-1 as a 1 unit play and I don't see it in your write up above.  You still have that as a play for the game? 

BA..... great year and your posts are very informative.