Hey BA. thx for the picks! Like OM too, tough call at 7 for me more because I haven't given the OkieStaties many looks this year. I will offer up that OM's O looked much better after Tunsil returned against A&M week 7, plus the run this year is carrying some drives they would have stalled LY. And that D is just knock down, drag em out. I realize Okies put up a few points against Bay just passing (8 yds rushing ahhhh) but can't be a one trick pony w OM... ask A&M what happens when you have a bad run day against these guys! BOL w the bowl season!!!
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Hey BA. thx for the picks! Like OM too, tough call at 7 for me more because I haven't given the OkieStaties many looks this year. I will offer up that OM's O looked much better after Tunsil returned against A&M week 7, plus the run this year is carrying some drives they would have stalled LY. And that D is just knock down, drag em out. I realize Okies put up a few points against Bay just passing (8 yds rushing ahhhh) but can't be a one trick pony w OM... ask A&M what happens when you have a bad run day against these guys! BOL w the bowl season!!!
REMINDER: these are EXHIBITION games for the most part... *SO...you must shift gears in your wagering style...considering many more factors than you might in the regular season... *BUT....RELAX...as always the best team usually still wins...just consider the following as tools in your handicapping toolbox (there if you need it)
IDEAS
1) FOCUS *Don't think MOTIVATION / effort maybe.....think FOCUS > mostly in preparation *What was the goal when the season began?...don't think in terms of do they care / will they try hard *Is THIS where they wanted to be?....will they be FULLY focused? note: ignore what coaches say...as they love the bowls for the extra practices...where they can beat the helll outta the young guys (see who can play + if hurt have until fall to heal) *one of my favorites: a (good) team EMBARRASSED in their bowl last year...esp. if a DOG this year maybe at least hesitate to back a favorite that had a huge bowl win the previous year $ in general lean to dogs in the early games / favorites in later (KEY) games
2) COACHES *some PREPARE much better than others...some know what buttons to push....and when to do so. *some simply do not like all the bowl BS...and treat bowls just like another spring eg. Bill Snyder has been the best HC to bet during the reg.season...but has only covered 5 of last 16 bowls
3) CONFERENCE STRENGTH / TRENDS *you might have noticed EARLY conference trends often carry over to later games *some distinct trends (between conferences) have developed over the years eg. 18 of last 23 CUSA games have gone UNDER...CUSA is 9-0 SU/ ATS vs the MAC JUST LOVE that Big12 do ya?...they have covered 8 of last 34 January bowls (13-21 SU)...5-19 SU / 5-18-1 ATS vs that overrated SEC ! P12 is 8-15 SU / ATS in bowls before 12/25...but 15-9 / 17-7 in Jan bowls....etc
4) COMMON OPPONENTS * compare their stats if they played the same team....and / or their performance vs similar teams in style of play or even power ratings
5) DISTRACTIONS *HC...and / or assistants leaving of course the main issue ...just RUMORED to leave can cause problems as well *beware the heavy favorite in a crap bowl with a lotta players thinking NFL ....they might just be trying to not get hurt *don't ASSume a veteran team will go all out in their final game *a team with too many 'injuries'...and suspensions is likely to not be focused *award winners...esp the Heisman have historically been distractions..not lately it seems 6) INJURIES / SUSPENSIONS
*probably overrated...maybe best to think of it this way...even if the effect on the games outcome is minimal... you still just want to know who is / not playing *keep in mind some coaches DO NOT DISCUSS / REVEAL injuries....so if practices are closed you have no idea if any key guys are hurt **best sources are local news...beat writers that give daily updates can be a great source to get a 'feel' for what's going on
7) CROWD EDGE
Local...or regional can make a huge difference...some teams affected more than others. A strong crowd edge has meant (about) a 58-60% ATS in the past NOTE: as with coaching changes...(recently) this has not made much difference *hard to find out...but some teams with limited budgets...can't afford to fly and must BUS it yikes
7) MATCH-UP ADVANTAGES
*as always...a match-up edge is perhaps the most important factor in determining who wins/loses what can team A do really well?...can team B stop this?...and vice-versa *here a strong DEFENSIVE team...facing a strong OFFENSIVE team usually has the edge...especially after a long lay-off ** if considering a heavy favorite (maybe with seemingly few weaknesses) does their opponent have the ability to DISRUPT...what they like to do?
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
REMINDER: these are EXHIBITION games for the most part... *SO...you must shift gears in your wagering style...considering many more factors than you might in the regular season... *BUT....RELAX...as always the best team usually still wins...just consider the following as tools in your handicapping toolbox (there if you need it)
IDEAS
1) FOCUS *Don't think MOTIVATION / effort maybe.....think FOCUS > mostly in preparation *What was the goal when the season began?...don't think in terms of do they care / will they try hard *Is THIS where they wanted to be?....will they be FULLY focused? note: ignore what coaches say...as they love the bowls for the extra practices...where they can beat the helll outta the young guys (see who can play + if hurt have until fall to heal) *one of my favorites: a (good) team EMBARRASSED in their bowl last year...esp. if a DOG this year maybe at least hesitate to back a favorite that had a huge bowl win the previous year $ in general lean to dogs in the early games / favorites in later (KEY) games
2) COACHES *some PREPARE much better than others...some know what buttons to push....and when to do so. *some simply do not like all the bowl BS...and treat bowls just like another spring eg. Bill Snyder has been the best HC to bet during the reg.season...but has only covered 5 of last 16 bowls
3) CONFERENCE STRENGTH / TRENDS *you might have noticed EARLY conference trends often carry over to later games *some distinct trends (between conferences) have developed over the years eg. 18 of last 23 CUSA games have gone UNDER...CUSA is 9-0 SU/ ATS vs the MAC JUST LOVE that Big12 do ya?...they have covered 8 of last 34 January bowls (13-21 SU)...5-19 SU / 5-18-1 ATS vs that overrated SEC ! P12 is 8-15 SU / ATS in bowls before 12/25...but 15-9 / 17-7 in Jan bowls....etc
4) COMMON OPPONENTS * compare their stats if they played the same team....and / or their performance vs similar teams in style of play or even power ratings
5) DISTRACTIONS *HC...and / or assistants leaving of course the main issue ...just RUMORED to leave can cause problems as well *beware the heavy favorite in a crap bowl with a lotta players thinking NFL ....they might just be trying to not get hurt *don't ASSume a veteran team will go all out in their final game *a team with too many 'injuries'...and suspensions is likely to not be focused *award winners...esp the Heisman have historically been distractions..not lately it seems 6) INJURIES / SUSPENSIONS
*probably overrated...maybe best to think of it this way...even if the effect on the games outcome is minimal... you still just want to know who is / not playing *keep in mind some coaches DO NOT DISCUSS / REVEAL injuries....so if practices are closed you have no idea if any key guys are hurt **best sources are local news...beat writers that give daily updates can be a great source to get a 'feel' for what's going on
7) CROWD EDGE
Local...or regional can make a huge difference...some teams affected more than others. A strong crowd edge has meant (about) a 58-60% ATS in the past NOTE: as with coaching changes...(recently) this has not made much difference *hard to find out...but some teams with limited budgets...can't afford to fly and must BUS it yikes
7) MATCH-UP ADVANTAGES
*as always...a match-up edge is perhaps the most important factor in determining who wins/loses what can team A do really well?...can team B stop this?...and vice-versa *here a strong DEFENSIVE team...facing a strong OFFENSIVE team usually has the edge...especially after a long lay-off ** if considering a heavy favorite (maybe with seemingly few weaknesses) does their opponent have the ability to DISRUPT...what they like to do?
1) JUST BET THE WINNER *sure easier said than done...but the winner also covers in bowls about 90% of the time $$ last 5 years the SU winner is 158-18 ATS *don't forget this when doing your bowl pick-em contests....and especially when playing DOGS $$$ last year the dog won OUTRIGHT 21X...
2) AVOID or FADE
* average teams that FINISHED strong.....just the opposite of what most think...often these teams revert back to their old self after a long lay-off *TURNOVER prone teams..the lay-off ain't gonna fix it *NEVER play....a 'bubble-burst' team...just move on to the next game * the bowl virgin...their GOAL of just making a bowl have been met...the bowl is more of a REWARD / VACATION *cold weather teams....with no indoor facility...tough to stay in top condition if you can't work outside AND...warm weather teams...playing in cold weather *the interim HC with no shot at the job...where most coaches are leaving...the coaches are spending all their time looking for another job (if they wait it's too late) *the team with the extra long lay-off....vs the team with a shorter one....esp if the former is an offensive team....the latter defensive *SENIOR heavy teams off a disapponting year...they often are not looking for redemption...but to chase azz and get drunk... * the Heisman winner...all the BS takes a ton of time away from game prep....plus everyone telling him how awesome he is...while his opponents are sick of getting asked...how do you ever plan to stop this awesome individual?
3) PLAY ON
*** the 'good' team EMBARRASSED in last year's bowl...esp if returning to same bowl / close to home ** the team that (seems to be)...on the RISE...meaning they really need a nice win to keep the MoMENTUM going *the team with the better QB... *the team with the better D / special teams / ability to leverage the field in their favor *a good team that might have finished poorly.....again the opposite of what most think....the key is the strong team will emerge much improved...and now offers great value maybe *a senior heavy team....IF MOTIVATED...avoid if in a lesser bowl maybe....and/or in a party city... *the team with the interim HC...that the players want to get hired...if the guy has a real shot *the team from the tougher conference..that played a tougher schedule
4) FOLLOW THE LINE MOVEMENT
*unlike the reg season (usually)...play on instead of fade... BECAUSE... ANYTIME A LINE HAS MOVED MORE THAN 4 POINTS TOWARDS A GIVEN TEAM...THAT TEAM HAS COVERED 64% OF THE TIME *note: for totals about 56%....since 1992
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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STRATEGY
1) JUST BET THE WINNER *sure easier said than done...but the winner also covers in bowls about 90% of the time $$ last 5 years the SU winner is 158-18 ATS *don't forget this when doing your bowl pick-em contests....and especially when playing DOGS $$$ last year the dog won OUTRIGHT 21X...
2) AVOID or FADE
* average teams that FINISHED strong.....just the opposite of what most think...often these teams revert back to their old self after a long lay-off *TURNOVER prone teams..the lay-off ain't gonna fix it *NEVER play....a 'bubble-burst' team...just move on to the next game * the bowl virgin...their GOAL of just making a bowl have been met...the bowl is more of a REWARD / VACATION *cold weather teams....with no indoor facility...tough to stay in top condition if you can't work outside AND...warm weather teams...playing in cold weather *the interim HC with no shot at the job...where most coaches are leaving...the coaches are spending all their time looking for another job (if they wait it's too late) *the team with the extra long lay-off....vs the team with a shorter one....esp if the former is an offensive team....the latter defensive *SENIOR heavy teams off a disapponting year...they often are not looking for redemption...but to chase azz and get drunk... * the Heisman winner...all the BS takes a ton of time away from game prep....plus everyone telling him how awesome he is...while his opponents are sick of getting asked...how do you ever plan to stop this awesome individual?
3) PLAY ON
*** the 'good' team EMBARRASSED in last year's bowl...esp if returning to same bowl / close to home ** the team that (seems to be)...on the RISE...meaning they really need a nice win to keep the MoMENTUM going *the team with the better QB... *the team with the better D / special teams / ability to leverage the field in their favor *a good team that might have finished poorly.....again the opposite of what most think....the key is the strong team will emerge much improved...and now offers great value maybe *a senior heavy team....IF MOTIVATED...avoid if in a lesser bowl maybe....and/or in a party city... *the team with the interim HC...that the players want to get hired...if the guy has a real shot *the team from the tougher conference..that played a tougher schedule
4) FOLLOW THE LINE MOVEMENT
*unlike the reg season (usually)...play on instead of fade... BECAUSE... ANYTIME A LINE HAS MOVED MORE THAN 4 POINTS TOWARDS A GIVEN TEAM...THAT TEAM HAS COVERED 64% OF THE TIME *note: for totals about 56%....since 1992
Georgia - DC / OC Okie St - excellent ST coach Wazzu - WR coach N Caro- OC Penn St- OC fired Ohio St- DC Mich- DC (former DC Mattisson will call D in bowl) Pitt- OC Oregon- OC gone Tulsa- OC gone Memphis- most coaches leaving after bowl (only 2 offensive gone now) S Miss- OC Nevada- OC Tenn- ST / TE coach Auburn - DC Ariz St - OC Ark- OL
Ga Southern- BOTH OC / DC will coach bowl GA- TE coach John Lilly OC/ OLB coach Kevin Sherrer DC (bowl) Bama- DC Smart WILL coach bowl TTech- RB Coach Jinks WILL coach bowl Duke- OC Montgomery WILL coach bowl
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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ASSISTANT COACHES lost for bowl
Georgia - DC / OC Okie St - excellent ST coach Wazzu - WR coach N Caro- OC Penn St- OC fired Ohio St- DC Mich- DC (former DC Mattisson will call D in bowl) Pitt- OC Oregon- OC gone Tulsa- OC gone Memphis- most coaches leaving after bowl (only 2 offensive gone now) S Miss- OC Nevada- OC Tenn- ST / TE coach Auburn - DC Ariz St - OC Ark- OL
Ga Southern- BOTH OC / DC will coach bowl GA- TE coach John Lilly OC/ OLB coach Kevin Sherrer DC (bowl) Bama- DC Smart WILL coach bowl TTech- RB Coach Jinks WILL coach bowl Duke- OC Montgomery WILL coach bowl
As far as Boise goes, I have a hard time trusting them after watching them 4 or 5 times this year. Washington is a great play I feel.
Boise may not be the Boise of old this season, but I am betting that they will ramp their game up a few notches for the bowl. I think Boise will win by DD. GL
LonghornHoosier
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Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:
As far as Boise goes, I have a hard time trusting them after watching them 4 or 5 times this year. Washington is a great play I feel.
Boise may not be the Boise of old this season, but I am betting that they will ramp their game up a few notches for the bowl. I think Boise will win by DD. GL
SU ATS ACC 4-6 5-5 Big East 2-4 2-4 Big 10 6-5 6-5 Big 12 2-5 2-5 CUSA 4-1 3-2 Ind 2-1 2-1 MAC 2-3 3-2 MW 3-4 3-4 Pac-12 6-3 5-4 SEC 7-5 7-5 Sun Belt 1-2 1-2
2013-14
ACC 5-6 6-5 (AAC) 2-3 3-2 Big 2-5 3-4 Big 12 3-3 3-3 CUSA 3-2 3-2 Ind 2-1 1-2 MAC 0-5 0-5 MW 3-3 3-3 Pac-12 6-3 6-3 SEC 7-3 6-4 Sun Belt 2-0 2-0
2012-13
ACC 4-2 4-2 Big 10 2-4 3-3 Big 12 4-5 3-6 CUSA 4-1 4-1 Ind 1-2 1-2 MAC 3-3 3-3 MW 1-4 1-4 Pac-12 4-4 4-4 SEC 6-3 6-3 Sun Belt 1-2 1-2 WAC 2-0 2-0
ATS notes....
ACC 18-7 UNDER in BCS / Play-off games vs P12 1-9 SU / 3-7 ATS vs SEC 7-7 / 8-6 *the DOG vs B10 is 12-1-1 ATS (either team)
Big 10 BCS 10-5 / 11-3-1 B12 5-16 / 12-9 P12 4-4 / 5-3 SEC < 4 dog 4-14 ATS...> 4 dog 14-8 ATS
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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CONFERENCE STUFF
2014-15
SU ATS ACC 4-6 5-5 Big East 2-4 2-4 Big 10 6-5 6-5 Big 12 2-5 2-5 CUSA 4-1 3-2 Ind 2-1 2-1 MAC 2-3 3-2 MW 3-4 3-4 Pac-12 6-3 5-4 SEC 7-5 7-5 Sun Belt 1-2 1-2
2013-14
ACC 5-6 6-5 (AAC) 2-3 3-2 Big 2-5 3-4 Big 12 3-3 3-3 CUSA 3-2 3-2 Ind 2-1 1-2 MAC 0-5 0-5 MW 3-3 3-3 Pac-12 6-3 6-3 SEC 7-3 6-4 Sun Belt 2-0 2-0
2012-13
ACC 4-2 4-2 Big 10 2-4 3-3 Big 12 4-5 3-6 CUSA 4-1 4-1 Ind 1-2 1-2 MAC 3-3 3-3 MW 1-4 1-4 Pac-12 4-4 4-4 SEC 6-3 6-3 Sun Belt 1-2 1-2 WAC 2-0 2-0
ATS notes....
ACC 18-7 UNDER in BCS / Play-off games vs P12 1-9 SU / 3-7 ATS vs SEC 7-7 / 8-6 *the DOG vs B10 is 12-1-1 ATS (either team)
Big 10 BCS 10-5 / 11-3-1 B12 5-16 / 12-9 P12 4-4 / 5-3 SEC < 4 dog 4-14 ATS...> 4 dog 14-8 ATS
Big 12 BCS 8-11 / 5-14 12/25 > 1/1 23-8 UNDER JAN 14-21 / 9-25-1 <9 dog 5-19 / 6-18...>9 dog 9-3 ATS SEC 5-18 / 5-17-1 P12 13-7 / 12-8
CUSA 16-6 / 14-7-1 run UNDER is 19-4 ATS 6-2 / 7-1 in Jan 13-6-1 as 7+ dog...<7 dog 5-17 / 6-16 MAC 10-0 / 9-1 *fav in MAC games 14-2 ATS
MAC 4-13 / 3-12 run JAN 4-10 SU / ATS < 12/25- 10-9 / 11-8 > 12/25- 7-19 / 5-21 8-1 OVER if fav vs P5 0-11 / 2-9 vs SBelt dogs are 8-2 ATS
MTW < 12/25 - 6-12 SU/ATS when dog -20-11 over vs P5 10-6 SU/ATS CUSA 13-2 under
PAC12 13-6 / 11-8 run BCS / play-off- 14-8/16-6 < 12/25 8-15 SU / ATS as 4+ fav - 20-8 ATS 4+ dog - 19-5 ATS <3 fav/dog - 4-9 SU/ATS
SEC BCS / play-off 14-7 SU/ATS 22-14 / 25-11 as 3+ dog 12/25 > 1/1 - 9-10 / 6-13
SBELT dogs 11-6/12-4-1 <12/25- 8-4/9-3 as fav 3-6 SU/ATS as dog 11-6/12-4-1 under is 7-2-1 ATS
note: numbers mostly from Vegas Insider *many sites have different ATS results...not all CLOSING lines are the same
eg. LY UCLA vs Kan St....KSU closed (seems like) as a small fav....but were clearly the dog throughout betting....I treated them as a dog ....in my numbers (VI did not)
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
Big 12 BCS 8-11 / 5-14 12/25 > 1/1 23-8 UNDER JAN 14-21 / 9-25-1 <9 dog 5-19 / 6-18...>9 dog 9-3 ATS SEC 5-18 / 5-17-1 P12 13-7 / 12-8
CUSA 16-6 / 14-7-1 run UNDER is 19-4 ATS 6-2 / 7-1 in Jan 13-6-1 as 7+ dog...<7 dog 5-17 / 6-16 MAC 10-0 / 9-1 *fav in MAC games 14-2 ATS
MAC 4-13 / 3-12 run JAN 4-10 SU / ATS < 12/25- 10-9 / 11-8 > 12/25- 7-19 / 5-21 8-1 OVER if fav vs P5 0-11 / 2-9 vs SBelt dogs are 8-2 ATS
MTW < 12/25 - 6-12 SU/ATS when dog -20-11 over vs P5 10-6 SU/ATS CUSA 13-2 under
PAC12 13-6 / 11-8 run BCS / play-off- 14-8/16-6 < 12/25 8-15 SU / ATS as 4+ fav - 20-8 ATS 4+ dog - 19-5 ATS <3 fav/dog - 4-9 SU/ATS
SEC BCS / play-off 14-7 SU/ATS 22-14 / 25-11 as 3+ dog 12/25 > 1/1 - 9-10 / 6-13
SBELT dogs 11-6/12-4-1 <12/25- 8-4/9-3 as fav 3-6 SU/ATS as dog 11-6/12-4-1 under is 7-2-1 ATS
note: numbers mostly from Vegas Insider *many sites have different ATS results...not all CLOSING lines are the same
eg. LY UCLA vs Kan St....KSU closed (seems like) as a small fav....but were clearly the dog throughout betting....I treated them as a dog ....in my numbers (VI did not)
Baylor Johnson will start/Stidham likely 'available' OKIE St Rudolph ? Wazzu Falk should be fine A&M Allen quit team wtf
RB
UTAH BOOKER still out Baylor Linwood should be ok Houston Farrow P Wisky Clement should play NDame Prosise ?
other...
Zona LB Scooby W. should play / check status of other LB's too Ohio St DL Washington OUT Ole Miss DL Nkemdiche likely OUT SDSU QB and top DL Heyward still OUT Wazzu WR Marks OUT N Illinois WR Lewis should play? Ohio...S Miss...many hurt / check status
*just listed a few here....
best way?.....go to LOCAL NEWS....esp beat writer's blogs *HC do NOT have to be honest about injuries....some do not discuss them at all *DON'T TAKE THE POSITIVE ANGLE......HOPING a key guy plays.....that's fine for FANS......incredibly STUPID for serious bettors
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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KEY INJURIES / SUSP
QB
Baylor Johnson will start/Stidham likely 'available' OKIE St Rudolph ? Wazzu Falk should be fine A&M Allen quit team wtf
RB
UTAH BOOKER still out Baylor Linwood should be ok Houston Farrow P Wisky Clement should play NDame Prosise ?
other...
Zona LB Scooby W. should play / check status of other LB's too Ohio St DL Washington OUT Ole Miss DL Nkemdiche likely OUT SDSU QB and top DL Heyward still OUT Wazzu WR Marks OUT N Illinois WR Lewis should play? Ohio...S Miss...many hurt / check status
*just listed a few here....
best way?.....go to LOCAL NEWS....esp beat writer's blogs *HC do NOT have to be honest about injuries....some do not discuss them at all *DON'T TAKE THE POSITIVE ANGLE......HOPING a key guy plays.....that's fine for FANS......incredibly STUPID for serious bettors
USC -3 Memphis +3 Hou +7 Clemson +4 NW +7 WM -2' Penn St +7 New Mexico +10
leaning......
BGreen .....losing coaches should effect the more exp team (BG) less IMO....match-up of BG O (great QB) vs that GS D the deciding factor here Wazzu ...Leach bad bowl fav....but if really cold fade Miami for sure PITT....if HC leaves.... maybe Cal / AF ......stay away...unless AF HC leaves *note : I have it on REALLY good authority that F-35's will buzz the crowd.....damm close to that plane Eastwood flew in Firefox $150 million / flies close to mach2 (about 1500 mph) Mich St / under 1H / Bama 2H OU / Clem 1H under Michigan N Dame KSU 1H / Hogs 2H TCU and/or under 1H .....Ducks and/or over 2H WV and or 1H under....these 2 combined 6-16-1 under TY
Top plays = 1.0 + units *here Ducks 2.5 / Ole Miss 7.5+
one unit = solid plays I think will work
smaller = hunches / value plays ...< 0.5 play or teaser play?
* I'm simply listing ALL games I considered*
The most predictable thing about bowls IMO $$$$ is 1H > 2H tendencies....a team is ready to play...or not.....very seldom does a team 'find it'.....at halftime
*exception being a team with a really never say die QB like John Football vs Duke......Duke 1H > Aggies 2H a huge bet for me......as was RG3 vs Washington
HAPPY HOLIDAYS and BOL.......
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
USC -3 Memphis +3 Hou +7 Clemson +4 NW +7 WM -2' Penn St +7 New Mexico +10
leaning......
BGreen .....losing coaches should effect the more exp team (BG) less IMO....match-up of BG O (great QB) vs that GS D the deciding factor here Wazzu ...Leach bad bowl fav....but if really cold fade Miami for sure PITT....if HC leaves.... maybe Cal / AF ......stay away...unless AF HC leaves *note : I have it on REALLY good authority that F-35's will buzz the crowd.....damm close to that plane Eastwood flew in Firefox $150 million / flies close to mach2 (about 1500 mph) Mich St / under 1H / Bama 2H OU / Clem 1H under Michigan N Dame KSU 1H / Hogs 2H TCU and/or under 1H .....Ducks and/or over 2H WV and or 1H under....these 2 combined 6-16-1 under TY
Top plays = 1.0 + units *here Ducks 2.5 / Ole Miss 7.5+
one unit = solid plays I think will work
smaller = hunches / value plays ...< 0.5 play or teaser play?
* I'm simply listing ALL games I considered*
The most predictable thing about bowls IMO $$$$ is 1H > 2H tendencies....a team is ready to play...or not.....very seldom does a team 'find it'.....at halftime
*exception being a team with a really never say die QB like John Football vs Duke......Duke 1H > Aggies 2H a huge bet for me......as was RG3 vs Washington
When studying a match-up...go back and look at what gave team A issues.....throughout the season
Every team has a plan offensively....what they like to do *run the ball inside > impose their will........ *spread you out and run > make you tackle in space... *spread you out and throw >make you defend every inch etc.....
For every team... there was a game or several in which a team was able to DISRUPT....what they 'like to do' *like Ole Miss vs Bama
Then......AX yourself......does their bowl opponent possess these same characteristics?........ *same on D....what offenses have EXPOSED the D weaknesses of team A?.....can their bowl opponent do this?
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
speaking of LT / ASU....
When studying a match-up...go back and look at what gave team A issues.....throughout the season
Every team has a plan offensively....what they like to do *run the ball inside > impose their will........ *spread you out and run > make you tackle in space... *spread you out and throw >make you defend every inch etc.....
For every team... there was a game or several in which a team was able to DISRUPT....what they 'like to do' *like Ole Miss vs Bama
Then......AX yourself......does their bowl opponent possess these same characteristics?........ *same on D....what offenses have EXPOSED the D weaknesses of team A?.....can their bowl opponent do this?
Agree on Oregon. I rode them for several games in the second half of the season. Impressive turnaround. I figure UO is looking forward to a strong finish, while TCU limps into this thing.
Hadn't really thought about Ole Miss, but it looks like I need to. I think I'm pretty sure which team is physically tougher.
Really like USF. Man, they looked good to finish the season.
0
Thanks for all the stuff, man.
Agree on Oregon. I rode them for several games in the second half of the season. Impressive turnaround. I figure UO is looking forward to a strong finish, while TCU limps into this thing.
Hadn't really thought about Ole Miss, but it looks like I need to. I think I'm pretty sure which team is physically tougher.
Really like USF. Man, they looked good to finish the season.
BA is the James Brown of Covers- by far the hardest work man in handicapping.
The key one for me is when too many guys on a team are thinking NFL - Saban blamed this for Bama losing last year. I can see Ohio St falling into this trap this year.
A lot of these situations are very difficult to read. If a coach leaves for another job, do the players quit? Or do they rally behind the interim coach?
0
BA is the James Brown of Covers- by far the hardest work man in handicapping.
The key one for me is when too many guys on a team are thinking NFL - Saban blamed this for Bama losing last year. I can see Ohio St falling into this trap this year.
A lot of these situations are very difficult to read. If a coach leaves for another job, do the players quit? Or do they rally behind the interim coach?
wowwwwwwwwwww quelle classe !!! tu te souviens que je parle français !! ta grand -maman a été un bon professeur !! joyeuses fêtes à toi et à tout ceux que tu aimes,tu es de loin le plus professionel sur cover,tout le monde te respecte ,bravo et un gros merci pour ces gentils mots en français,
0
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
Joyeuses fêtes et bonne chance...............
wowwwwwwwwwww quelle classe !!! tu te souviens que je parle français !! ta grand -maman a été un bon professeur !! joyeuses fêtes à toi et à tout ceux que tu aimes,tu es de loin le plus professionel sur cover,tout le monde te respecte ,bravo et un gros merci pour ces gentils mots en français,
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