Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
Skipster......i KNOW what you're doing.........................
*we ALL do it.....looking for a short-cut
"SO....Hogs don't wanna be here...Kan St does > so bet Kan St?"................NO?.......there MUST be a better way wtf ?
*PLUS....Hogs won so that proves it right?
Way too much info....theories...what to do?
*very few have the TIME to spend a few hours on each game...so no crime at all....even in this thread ha
Gotta go thru the ENTIRE PROCESS.......to get it right
*If you do.....you always win............................PERIOD speaking long term of course......
IF......you jump off too early.....you simply REDUCE your chances of winning LONG TERM........ *forums like Covers dumb down the process...any high school kid can show up and pick winners from time to time.....so do it like they do it?......why not they win right?..............
line correct?.....wanna be here?.....goals met?.....HC prep for bowls/ record? .....match-up edge?.....ST / turnovers....how did the season unfold? (won early....faded > came on strong at end......or terrible start.....injuries screwed season...now injured guys back) etc,,,,then all the other stuff.....crowd / travel / team play well on road....as favorite or dog......+++++++
IF.....you think Indiana was simply unlucky.....well you got some work to do....as the stuff you seem to want to ELIMINATE...is EGGZACTLY what got their azz beat.........
Duke - the
WILL to WIN a bowl (1st under Cutcliffe)....one of the finest football coaches in the nation....superseded any match-up edge the Hoosiers had........ as I explained in great detail before the game
The Fact that the game was close.....now tells us that this wasn't IMPORTANT?......
SAY WHAT?
*NEXT year....unless playing a tough overachiever like Duke....Indiana (should) be ready to win.....as their SIMPLE GOAL....of just making a bowl.....was achieved THIS YEAR............................
actually, no. what i'm trying to do is to have an adult discussion about what I see as a shift in the paradigm when it comes to bowl betting over the past few years with this year being the most extreme example.
used to be you could, without looking at the games mostly, play the underdogs in the first 10 bowls and play the faves the last 10 bowls and win some money. this year, you could have bet all the favorites especially in the post xmas day bowls and done pretty well.
i see that as a shift in the way to look at the bowl games. it's ok to disagree about it. and, again, I intend no disrespect. I read your stuff every week. have for 3 years. i follow you on many games.
i used to hunt for compelling reasons to play the favorites and, absent one, would always bet the dog. this year, I looked for compelling reasons to bet the dog and, absent one, I bet the faves. I had a very good bowl season. Got fooled on a few. Sure. Gonna happen, but what I'm talking about is simply a matter of approach.
we definitely disagree about duke (whom I also bet upon btw). two missed FGs and PR TD are what separated them. there is most definitely an element of luck in games that have a 3 pt line and are settled by, let me see, 3 pts. I cashed my ticket but certainly thought about buying out of it when I saw ALL 12 PLAYERS in my pool on Duke. That's usually not a good sign as most of the players can't pick their own azz. this time it worked out. I was also on Arkansas which was just about the easiest pick on the board (bama, auburn). they showed up. they were happy enough to be there that they whipped ksu as they should have. but back in the day, teams like arkansas would show up less than half the time. easy money. hasn't worked that way the last few. the good teams are showing up. so a lean towards the favorites seems to be in the cards at least for now. I hope I'm making myself clear.