bowl stuff.....

Trying to get your thoughts on Baylor and your pick.  My understanding is Baylor will again be down to their 3rd team QB.  I was all over Indiana until you changed my mind to Duke.  More than willing to listen again.  Great season so far.  BOL

Bookie 

Cant wait to fade Cal tomorrow 

Well said.

sorry way too busy << BAD time for that............

ARMED FORCES BOWL


AIR FORCE (8-5) vs. CALIFORNIA (7-5)
2:00p E Fort Worth, Texas (Grass Field)
  * mid 40's / clear > pc / 5-8 mph

DOG...has covered 5/6 here...4/5 have gone under   
  *TC 3-4 SU / 4-3 ATS in bowls...Sonny D 0-1/1-0
  *AF LY beat WM 38-21 / Cal last bowl 2011 (L to Texas)

NEITHER team wanted to be HERE
  *Cal 'should be' in Cactus Bowl (beat Ariz St wtf)...AF has been here several times....before BB losses to New Mex / SDSU...hoping for better spot

MATCH-UP
  *Cal O is mostly efficient / capable tho of big plays >> AF D is excellent at stopping efficient / move the chains O's...but TERRIBLE (#128) at stopping the big play....if AF can't get a strong push JG could do SERIOUS damage here

  *AF O is of course efficient > Cal D is tough vs big play...but WEAK at stopping patient / move the chains O's (#105)
    AF pass D not bad....but few teams they played can throw at all....Cal not strong vs run...but capable (speed at LB) to slow AF option down if focused here....USC...Zona St...SDSU couldn't run (well)

in-game-  AF O much stronger 2H...Cal D weaker late
 Cal solid all 4/ tops in 3rd...AF D terrible 1st Q...very good 2nd Q...solid 2H

pace- AF #25 / Cal #34
TO- AF #87 -3...Cal #51 +2


$   since both teams (maybe) less than 100% focused...we look to the total (OVER)....since BOTH should move it
       *early bets when 63-64 look like a great bet....now at 69 only for rookies ha........so I'll OF COURSE pass.......or do it / not tell anybody.............
        I look at Cal's schedule....run of @ Tx > @ Wash > Wazzu > @ Utah> @ UCLA > USC >@ Oregon> Oreg St> @ Tree > Zona St     ......and unlike most...conclude they're pretty good...just too much too soon.....of course they faded

I look for them to 'regroup' here....and eventually outscore AF
    * so strong lean Cal only for me....looking for in-game/halftime play only......I don't like Sonny interviewing for every job in America........

damm man you're crazy.................
 *CHECK....is in the mail thanks!!

Thanks for the analysis. Hope to see your halftime play. Yesterday's 3rd quarter bet on Pitt much appreciated.

Look ... 2 things to know about Baylor today:

1. Starting QB out, 2nd string QB out, 3rd string QB (moved back from WR) had a concussion in last game, 4th string QB (also a WR) got 45% of snaps in practice PLUS starting RB and Biletnikoff winning WR are both OUT.

2. This team was ranked as high as #3 in the nation this season. Injuries submarined the season. This is a complete let down bowl game appearance.

I know Briles is trying to get the team hyped up, but with a broken offense and less than optimal intensity level against a good team ... it's not a good set up for Baylor.

I hope I'm completely wrong. But I doubt that I am.

I made that play EARLY....when only QB was shaky....
  *although I wouldn't make it now.....maybe very small

I WILL SAY THIS.............................

THERE  IS  NO  PLAY  ON  NORTH  CAROLINA  HERE......

Bears at full strength?....as a favorite here
  *slam UNC you bet

WOUNDED?....backs to wall?
  *embarrassed 2013 vs UCF....shoulda won LY vs Sparty
  *horrific off the field stuff...Bears have no choice but to win this one.......yet another LONG off-season >>.critical for Baylor....not really for UNC  

CAN THEY?.....essentially score enough to keep up with UNC?
  *maybe > here's why

After getting worse each year on D......(and O BTW)
  *Fedora has them (D) back to where they were when he arrived.....EXCEPT for stopping the RUN.....TERRIBLE
 
*#110 at 4.8/216....#106 efficiency run D....DL weak at getting penetration too / disrupting things ...#115
S Caro 5.4 / 254
Virg     5.3/ 205
DUKE 7.4/327
NCSt  5.9/308
DELAWARE  5.7/280........enuff?

Baylor D has underachieved as well sure.....but they're not a serious LIABILITY anymore....just haven't emerged as a strength

I look for Art to design an (extremely) creative game plan here.....running the ball / controlling the clock (Bears #1 pace reg season)....and expect an inspired / rally the troops type effort here.....

$ ....SO.....while I still expect to win.....and I expect Bears to win SU.......I will be ready to buy it back QUICKLY.....in-game if it looks like Bears have quit....
  *note;  unfortunately.......Art is possibly the WORST bowl coach......2-8 SU / 3-7 ATS or so yikes.
 
  doesn't play out every time.....but when key players are missing....initial lean should be to the team WITH the missing players.....as it creates an edge for their play.....and maybe makes the opponent a bit overconfident......
     *forgot most of the examples....classic one being Lou Holtz / Hogs vs guess who.....OU / Switzer /Sims...in '78 Orange Bowl......kicked the crap outta OU .....as a 25ish pt dog ........... 

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL

BAYLOR (9-3) vs. NORTH CAROLINA (11-2)
5:30p E  Orlando, Florida (Grass Field)
   *80's....5 mph....no rain

write-up......see above.............
  *tempted to do a Covers Hero type write-up....with promises.....guarantees.....THREATS........like ONLY I KNOW.....what's gonna happen....A HUGE BAYLOR VICTORY !!!!!
  *loses so what.....works >>  GENIUS.!!!!....................


in-game.....

Bay O- great 1H.....fades 2nd Q...strong 3rd/4th < if needed maybe
        D- bad 1st Q....better 2nd/3rd.....weakens 4th
UNC O-solid all 4
         D-weak 1st Q......ok 2nd/3rd.....TERRIBLE 3rd

note:  Bears in 3rd (if set up)....maybe nice

OUT :  Baylor- 1st 2 QB;s.....nations top WR....top RB....RT Colbert
            UNC-  OC has left....st S Smiley still out

BOL boys back later...................


if I run outta time.....
  * have LSU in 2nd leg of teaser to win SU.....maybe in-game OVER ....TT if down big at half.....maybe awesome play
  *looking at Col St......?











 

Thanks BA that put a huge smile on my face or frown rather remembering the 78 Orange bow.  The line movement suggest you are correct as it has been bet down to 2.  I again appreciate your insight and hard work.  BOL

BAYLOR, BAYLOR BAYLOR 

.

TERRIBLE SPOT.....for the overrated....GUTLESS Heels...
  *Bears have what 600 yards rushing?................

When evaluating a team....step back....have a seat....pour yourself a drink.....look at the BIG PICTURE....forget wins / losses....mostly..........AX yourself....which way is this team going?
  *look at ATS results...work INSIDE OUT....strength in the trenches 1st ... coaching.....QB....DEFENSE......ability to RUN / STOP RUN....stuff that transfers year to year

N Carolina?.....from 2012 -2014
SU 8-4 > 7-6 > 6-7
ATS 6-6 > 8-5 > 5-8
  *note:  O & D WORSE in virtually EVERY STINKING CATEGORY

SO.....the more his INFLUENCE shapes the program....the worse they get??? .........
  *SO.....if all of a sudden they ....POOF!....look to be just so awesome......ARE THEY REALLY?.....(most likely)....why helll no

Same principles apply to the sorry azz Dallas Cowboys.....
  *we have 20 years or so of extreme mediocrity...............

THEN.....ONE good year....playing one of the NFL's
 easiest schedules.....things came together....team health and chemistry perfect...
  *but wait!....you still have arguably the worst GM in NFL history AND a VERY average HC....your stars are (increasingly) China dolls.....are they REALLY building something awesome here ?.....
  *of course not..............

Like A&M....not bad when John Football was terrorizing...on / off the field.......BUILDING something special?

NOTE:  Bears are in fact building.....ART knows WTF he's doing
  *YES....D very slowly....but slightly better each year...in virtually every category.....IMO he might need to upgrade his DC....but he's loyal......not gonna beat him up for that.............

thanks man!.....awesome game....yep you didn't wanna be on the wrong side oft that azz whoopin'.....Switzer ever get 645 yds?

good man bwb thanks...............
  *hopefully haven't used up all my winners.........

Hey Bookie Assassinator....with the Clemson suspensions, and players sent home. Are you still backing Clemson?

No BA not even against Kansas  Keep up the great work.

I saw several people blaming the refs for the UNC beatdown.    

couldn't let you disrespect my man Switzer ha....had to look it up

1988 his last year vs Kan St.........

 *NCAA record you bet

wtf

38 FD / 829 TO / 72 rushes > 768 yds

lazy jack-azzes searching for SIMPLE / EASY answers...
  *HAHAHA....this is easy!....Gaylor has no shot ! ....hahhha

Then >> wait game was fixed!!!!.....it was SO obvious !!!
omg SCREWED AGAIN !!!!!!!...........

Any plays or leans for tomorrow