Bowl thread 2010....

Im going to pick every bowl game here.

I dont bet every game, but will give my leans in the games that I am not putting money on.  All games from 1 to 5 units.

ALL LINES ARE CURRENT BETTABLE LINES, NOT THE LINES I GOT OR WILL GET>.......

I will update this thread as we go, but these are the first several games:

1.  BYU -11.5 (lean)
2.  Fresno ML +105 (1 unit)
3.  Troy -2 (3 units)
4.  S Miss +3 (lean)
5.  Utah +17 (2 units)
6.  SD St -4.5 (2 units)
7.  Hawaii -10 (lean)
8.  FIU ML +110 (lean)
9.  G Tech +3 (2 units)
10.  WVU -3 (4 units)

That takes it through Wed 12/29, will update from there.....

Like most of the plays, but curious why you are on WVU.  Program appears to be a mess to me with recent coaching changes (or whatever you call it).  Stewart was a "lame duck" before the events of the last week, now he is truly a "lame duck."

Not sure if you can elaborate, but I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts.

Love #9 by the way.  Johnson's Navy experience should equate to a solid defensive gameplan to keep AF in check.

+3 is a gift IMO.

man, Boo aint shit, Ohio's DEF is the shit, i like troy, but OHIO looks to be the better team...

GoodLUCK

Boo Jackson is out - but not sure that means a whole lot.

I just have many key stats indicators like my adjusted yards per point and adjusted strength of schedule numbers that favor Troy.   Troy should be able to throw all over Ohio - look at the numbers from the U La La vs Ohio game - ULaLa threw for 398 in what is the closest comparison to Troy Ohio had on the schedule.

Ohio's offense can be very pedestrian against good defenses - its one thing to run through the MAC (the lowest power rated conference on my list by far), but even the Sun Belt has a harder week in and week out grind than the MAC. 

Not sure how Ohio gets up for this one after blowing their chance to play in the MAC championship against Kent.  Troy will have the semi home field advantage.

All in all - stats (-7) and gut (-8) point me to Troy here.

Honestly, it is mostly a numbers play.

WVU defensive stats are off the charts.  Even adjusted for strength of opponent they are off the charts. The only way I see NCS covering this one is to score 20+, and I just cant make a case for that - and my stats model supports it.  I have NCS at a 82% probability to score 18 or less.

Most of this does not take in to the coaching issues you are talking about - and to be fair - they can be significant or immaterial.  The thing is, I cant put a value on it.  Year after year we have these, and to my knowledge overall they even out - teams with assistants coaching and teams with lame duck coaches do not do any better or worse than expected (to my recollection, maybe someone could provide some solid stats).  I just dont know how to value it, so personally I ignore it as noise.

WVU 31 NCS 14

GL

Im on the same angle.  Just worry about GTech motivation vs AF motivation, but i have to take the 3 here.

Quote Originally Posted by LakeFavorite:

I like Fresno, and considering your admirable knowledge of the MAC, now like it a little more. Fresno on the smurf turf is nothing new. They traded shots with Reno and the run game, and assume they can do so with NIU. The question is, is NIU stoked to be there, or do they wish they hadn't fucked themselves in the MAC and are really not interested in this game. Is Fresno happy to be there? Good luck on your bowel picks Van. 

MAC vs MWC is a mismatch.  I also agree on NIU losing the MAC chmpnshp - not sure how they get up for this one.

Can someone provide a WL stat (and ATS stat) for teams that lose in the conference chmpnshp in their bowl game?  Would be really interested....

Quote Originally Posted by Swoop:

Just to clarify, the lines you post might not be the lines you get/got, but you would still play them for those units at the lines that you've posted?  And if you got or happen to get a better line, it's a gravy?  Did I understand that correctly? 

Hey swoop - great question......

The units I post are all for the lines I post.  I might have a unit more or less on a side because of a line I did or didnt get, but given the current line that is the way I would bet it.

For instance, I got Fresno at +3 +100, so I have an extra unit at that number and I got the ML at +125 for 1 unit.  But at +105, I would bet 1 unit total.

Im sure I will also have lines go against me, and reduce my wager accordingly.

The way I see it is what is the point of posting unavailable lines?  To prove to everyone that I win but you cant?  Im not here to prove anything, just to try and give my opinion so that if someone buys in, they can do it too - and posting Fresno at +3 wouldnt really accomplish anything.

Just in case anyone is interested.....

Conf championship losers are 20-17 ATS since 2000 in their bowl games.

Also NIU head coach has bolted and left for Minnesota. Could have a negative effect. Pat Hill should have his guys ready after losing back to back Bowl games to MWC Wyoming and Colorado St.