Bowl thread 2010....

I know the numbers support WVU slightly here, but do you see a reason to be concerned Tom O'Brien is coaching the other side.  I believe he is 8-1 ATS as a bowl coach between NC St and BC.  Also, I don't know if there's any reason for WV to be fired up for this game.  They were looking at the BCS until the very last seconds of the UCONN game.   Also take a look at the play disparity NC St holds, they don't have great yards per play stats on offense, but they hold on to the ball with a dink and dunk offense (I.e. move the chains with alot of short passes). 

Good Stuff Vanzack, imput is solid.

Love the Fresno pick to start things off.

Leaning on some of yours Troy,Fresno St,FIU

May this be your Best Bowl Season Ever

That's the key. The conference championship loser ATS like Van pointed out is about even, but to me, conference history in bowls means a lot. Thanks for that stat.

Like each one except Florida International.  Almost uncanny to see 9 out 10 the same.

Bowl teams coming off an upset loss to end the year are a solid 67-43-4 ATS if their opponent ended the season with a win.  Looks like no reason to worry about NIU's upset loss to end the year.  They're much more likely to be happy about being here than Fresno.  Honestly, theyre probably happier about being in their shoes than Miami, OH's.  They get to play more of a name team than Miami, OH does.  Mid Tenn arguably worst team playing in the bowl.  Fresno is somewhat notable.

I don't think MAC being 2-15 SU in bowl games is all that relevant.   ATS is more meaningful, MAC is usually gonna be dogs b/c theyre a weaker conference.  Also, conference trends are for the most part irrelevant.  Is TCU going to apply to all the same conference trends once they move to the big east next year.  You need to look at each team individually.  The one MAJOR concern with picking NIU is that the coaching staff has left.  Interim coaches are 17-11 ATS since I started keeping track, but I'd have to go back and check how many coaches took both off/def coordinators with them like NIU did.

MAC was 0-4-1 in bowls last year.  i will play Fresno and Troy until the MAC shows me something....

I think if any team is a possible play it is Miami(o) since they are in 1st bowl since 04' and should be excited to be there.

great stuff as always van.... GL

I'm looking at how NIU performed on the field this year.  They performed better than Fresno did and most definitely better than past MAC Bowl teams.  I still have no bet on NIU and likely will not, just don't understand why everyone on this covers board taking Fresno just because NIU is from the MAC. 

I don't think the ATS record is all that relevant either.  It is more relevant than the SU record just because they are often large dogs in bowl games (7+), so they aren't going to win very often. 

Ive got the MAC at 6-17-1 since 2004 in bowl games ATS.

Well, as someone who you love to debate on everything - I can attest that everyone has what they consider to be important to handicapping.  You dont think confernce history is important, I do.  You think your stat above about coming off of a loss is important, I dont.

Thats just the way it is but I get a feeling you are always looking to prove a point, or to win a debate.  Certainly there are things that are black and white, but trend stats are not one of them.  Just more ingredients in the recipe.

I am curious about your statement that N Illinois "performed better than Fresno did and most definitely better than past MAC Bowl teams."   Lots of adjusted strength of schedule models (including mine) have N Ill very close to the bottom of the 120 ncaaf teams (mine 118, Steeles 119).  I'm curious to hear what you see in N Ill "on field performance" that you find so convincing, other than running through the weakest conference there is.

And BTW - Im pretty sure N Ill would fit right in the middle of previous MAC bowl teams.  This was a down year for the MAC (that is saying a lot), dont forget the Central Michigan teams with LeFevour as of late, and Ball St in 08 etc.  This N Ill team has done nothing to distinguish itself even amongst a lousy MAC season IMO.

Just in case anyone is interested.....

Conf championship losers are 20-17 ATS since 2000 in their bowl games.

The publics perception of a team can be based wayy to much off the last game a team played.  Esp. a high profile upset. 

Good luck this year Vanzack